Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY YANKEES    63 36 544 411 -0.000 48.172    1  1.006    1  0.225    1  0.231    1 0.5324  0.486  0.228  0.235  0.353
TAMPA BAY     61 38 509 387  0.026 49.286    2  0.982    2  0.207    2  0.222    2 0.5304  0.630  0.354  0.091 -0.274
BOSTON        58 43 531 462  0.038 50.894    3  0.842    3  0.147    3  0.145    3 0.5215  0.640  0.286  0.005  0.115
SAN DIEGO     59 40 435 341 -0.030 47.175    4  0.818    4  0.139    4  0.142    4 0.5189  0.277 -0.039  0.324 -0.092
ATLANTA       58 42 464 387 -0.005 48.688    5  0.790    5  0.129    6  0.122    5 0.5182  0.405  0.047  0.197  0.009
TEXAS         59 42 507 416 -0.051 47.306    6  0.714    6  0.104    7  0.114    6 0.5161  0.393  0.029  0.200  0.224
CHI WHITE SOX 56 44 458 413  0.001 49.009    7  0.700    7  0.101   11  0.094    7 0.5146  0.429  0.040  0.148  0.042
SAN FRANCISCO 58 44 459 374 -0.032 48.613    8  0.680    8  0.093    9  0.110    9 0.5129  0.423  0.050  0.169 -0.282
MINNESOTA     56 45 505 421 -0.001 49.367    9  0.667    9  0.088    5  0.132    8 0.5140  0.541  0.179  0.085 -0.042
PHILADELPHIA  55 46 478 425  0.023 50.400   10  0.663   10  0.088   12  0.091   10 0.5119  0.477  0.080  0.102  0.035
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TORONTO       53 49 477 446  0.045 51.761   11  0.609   11  0.064   10  0.102   11 0.5092  0.445  0.062  0.141  0.140
ST. LOUIS     56 45 452 378 -0.057 47.171   12  0.589   12  0.051   13  0.080   12 0.5083  0.273 -0.105  0.265  0.010
LA DODGERS    54 47 451 441 -0.022 48.727   13  0.570   13  0.043   18  0.000   14 0.5054  0.534  0.041 -0.041 -0.118
CINCINNATI    57 46 506 437 -0.078 47.321   15  0.566   14  0.037   15  0.044   13 0.5054  0.438 -0.001  0.090  0.326
NY METS       51 50 434 398  0.040 51.096   14  0.567   15  0.035    8  0.110   16 0.5038  0.416  0.045  0.175 -0.193
LA ANGELS     52 52 467 490  0.036 52.590   16  0.548   16  0.023   19 -0.001   15 0.5042  0.681  0.181 -0.182 -0.217
DETROIT       51 49 441 458 -0.006 48.958   18  0.539   17  0.014   20 -0.031   18 0.5015  0.606  0.077 -0.140 -0.120
OAKLAND       51 49 422 402 -0.005 48.878   17  0.542   18  0.014   17  0.025   17 0.5022  0.472  0.010  0.041 -0.252
FLORIDA       50 51 458 449  0.028 50.711   19  0.536   19  0.012   16  0.041   20 0.4999  0.530  0.078  0.005  0.024
COLORADO      51 50 469 448  0.001 49.588   20  0.532   20  0.008   14  0.047   19 0.5009  0.367 -0.059  0.154  0.344
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     42 59 409 484  0.075 52.789   21  0.385   21 -0.089   21 -0.077   21 0.4875  0.549 -0.022 -0.132 -0.159
MILWAUKEE     48 55 486 555 -0.063 48.358   22  0.366   22 -0.097   26 -0.167   23 0.4858  0.793  0.128 -0.462  0.005
KANSAS CITY   42 59 433 545  0.061 52.325   23  0.360   23 -0.099   23 -0.136   22 0.4860  0.627 -0.008 -0.265  0.057
WASHINGTON    43 58 409 464  0.005 49.991   24  0.310   24 -0.118   22 -0.096   24 0.4814  0.570 -0.022 -0.171 -0.186
CHI CUBS      46 56 430 470 -0.100 46.298   25  0.219   25 -0.147   24 -0.145   25 0.4799  0.388 -0.234 -0.056  0.183
HOUSTON       42 59 364 495 -0.029 48.915   26  0.172   26 -0.157   28 -0.234   26 0.4772  0.450 -0.269 -0.199 -0.087
SEATTLE       39 63 336 443  0.045 52.169   27  0.149   27 -0.166   25 -0.153   27 0.4770  0.349 -0.275 -0.031 -0.359
ARIZONA       37 64 450 576  0.036 51.408   28  0.084   28 -0.198   27 -0.192   28 0.4711  0.677 -0.015 -0.370  0.250
BALTIMORE     31 70 361 552  0.102 54.215   29  0.014   29 -0.256   29 -0.268   30 0.4620  0.413 -0.336 -0.200  0.139
PITTSBURGH    36 64 354 531 -0.058 47.301   30  0.000   30 -0.270   30 -0.339   29 0.4623  0.393 -0.424 -0.255  0.125

NL WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO     59 40 435 341 -0.030 47.175    4  0.818    4  0.139    4  0.142    4 0.5189  0.277 -0.039  0.324 -0.092
SAN FRANCISCO 58 44 459 374 -0.032 48.613    8  0.680    8  0.093    9  0.110    9 0.5129  0.423  0.050  0.169 -0.282
LA DODGERS    54 47 451 441 -0.022 48.727   13  0.570   13  0.043   18  0.000   14 0.5054  0.534  0.041 -0.041 -0.118
COLORADO      51 50 469 448  0.001 49.588   20  0.532   20  0.008   14  0.047   19 0.5009  0.367 -0.059  0.154  0.344
ARIZONA       37 64 450 576  0.036 51.408   28  0.084   28 -0.198   27 -0.192   28 0.4711  0.677 -0.015 -0.370  0.250

NL CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS     56 45 452 378 -0.057 47.171   12  0.589   12  0.051   13  0.080   12 0.5083  0.273 -0.105  0.265  0.010
CINCINNATI    57 46 506 437 -0.078 47.321   15  0.566   14  0.037   15  0.044   13 0.5054  0.438 -0.001  0.090  0.326
MILWAUKEE     48 55 486 555 -0.063 48.358   22  0.366   22 -0.097   26 -0.167   23 0.4858  0.793  0.128 -0.462  0.005
CHI CUBS      46 56 430 470 -0.100 46.298   25  0.219   25 -0.147   24 -0.145   25 0.4799  0.388 -0.234 -0.056  0.183
HOUSTON       42 59 364 495 -0.029 48.915   26  0.172   26 -0.157   28 -0.234   26 0.4772  0.450 -0.269 -0.199 -0.087
PITTSBURGH    36 64 354 531 -0.058 47.301   30  0.000   30 -0.270   30 -0.339   29 0.4623  0.393 -0.424 -0.255  0.125

NL EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA       58 42 464 387 -0.005 48.688    5  0.790    5  0.129    6  0.122    5 0.5182  0.405  0.047  0.197  0.009
PHILADELPHIA  55 46 478 425  0.023 50.400   10  0.663   10  0.088   12  0.091   10 0.5119  0.477  0.080  0.102  0.035
NY METS       51 50 434 398  0.040 51.096   14  0.567   15  0.035    8  0.110   16 0.5038  0.416  0.045  0.175 -0.193
FLORIDA       50 51 458 449  0.028 50.711   19  0.536   19  0.012   16  0.041   20 0.4999  0.530  0.078  0.005  0.024
WASHINGTON    43 58 409 464  0.005 49.991   24  0.310   24 -0.118   22 -0.096   24 0.4814  0.570 -0.022 -0.171 -0.186

AL WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXAS         59 42 507 416 -0.051 47.306    6  0.714    6  0.104    7  0.114    6 0.5161  0.393  0.029  0.200  0.224
LA ANGELS     52 52 467 490  0.036 52.590   16  0.548   16  0.023   19 -0.001   15 0.5042  0.681  0.181 -0.182 -0.217
OAKLAND       51 49 422 402 -0.005 48.878   17  0.542   18  0.014   17  0.025   17 0.5022  0.472  0.010  0.041 -0.252
SEATTLE       39 63 336 443  0.045 52.169   27  0.149   27 -0.166   25 -0.153   27 0.4770  0.349 -0.275 -0.031 -0.359

AL CENTRAL
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHI WHITE SOX 56 44 458 413  0.001 49.009    7  0.700    7  0.101   11  0.094    7 0.5146  0.429  0.040  0.148  0.042
MINNESOTA     56 45 505 421 -0.001 49.367    9  0.667    9  0.088    5  0.132    8 0.5140  0.541  0.179  0.085 -0.042
DETROIT       51 49 441 458 -0.006 48.958   18  0.539   17  0.014   20 -0.031   18 0.5015  0.606  0.077 -0.140 -0.120
CLEVELAND     42 59 409 484  0.075 52.789   21  0.385   21 -0.089   21 -0.077   21 0.4875  0.549 -0.022 -0.132 -0.159
KANSAS CITY   42 59 433 545  0.061 52.325   23  0.360   23 -0.099   23 -0.136   22 0.4860  0.627 -0.008 -0.265  0.057

AL EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY YANKEES    63 36 544 411 -0.000 48.172    1  1.006    1  0.225    1  0.231    1 0.5324  0.486  0.228  0.235  0.353
TAMPA BAY     61 38 509 387  0.026 49.286    2  0.982    2  0.207    2  0.222    2 0.5304  0.630  0.354  0.091 -0.274
BOSTON        58 43 531 462  0.038 50.894    3  0.842    3  0.147    3  0.145    3 0.5215  0.640  0.286  0.005  0.115
TORONTO       53 49 477 446  0.045 51.761   11  0.609   11  0.064   10  0.102   11 0.5092  0.445  0.062  0.141  0.140
BALTIMORE     31 70 361 552  0.102 54.215   29  0.014   29 -0.256   29 -0.268   30 0.4620  0.413 -0.336 -0.200  0.139

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    266 236 0.530    1  0.119
NL EAST    257 247 0.510    2  0.072
NL WEST    259 245 0.514    3  0.029
AL WEST    201 206 0.494    4 -0.005
AL CENTRAL 247 256 0.491    5 -0.005
NL CENTRAL 285 325 0.467    6 -0.170

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.131 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jul 29 05:30:14 2010
games through: Wed Jul 28 2010

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