Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  104  63 734 548 -0.027 82.292    1  0.955    1  0.174    3  0.173    1 0.5288  0.320  0.062  0.284 -0.127
NY YANKEES     99  68 895 674  0.029 85.959    2  0.927    2  0.164    1  0.227    2 0.5247  0.432  0.212  0.243  0.314
TEXAS         106  73 940 761  0.022 91.606    3  0.920    3  0.161    2  0.195    3 0.5234  0.357  0.115  0.275  0.613
DETROIT       100  73 829 778  0.001 87.220    4  0.722    4  0.122    6  0.075    4 0.5177  0.503  0.123  0.027  0.213
TAMPA BAY      92  74 728 630  0.043 86.394    6  0.666    5  0.110    5  0.122    7 0.5155  0.421  0.097  0.147 -0.274
BOSTON         90  72 875 737  0.038 83.936    5  0.667    6  0.108    4  0.145    6 0.5157  0.519  0.207  0.082  0.416
MILWAUKEE     101  72 770 706 -0.041 84.349    7  0.641    7  0.106    9  0.049    5 0.5171  0.395  0.001  0.097  0.068
ARIZONA        96  71 756 685 -0.047 81.019    8  0.575    8  0.086   10  0.047    8 0.5147  0.444  0.042  0.052  0.183
ST. LOUIS     101  79 862 770 -0.028 88.661    9  0.554    9  0.079    7  0.066    9 0.5132  0.729  0.331 -0.198 -0.292
LA ANGELS      86  76 667 633  0.027 83.371   10  0.533   10  0.063    8  0.058   11 0.5081  0.392  0.008  0.109 -0.210
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA        89  73 641 605 -0.020 80.394   11  0.532   11  0.063   11  0.040   10 0.5112  0.378 -0.023  0.102 -0.222
TORONTO        81  81 743 761  0.063 85.791   12  0.511   12  0.037   12  0.024   13 0.5040  0.375 -0.041  0.089  0.372
SAN FRANCISCO  86  76 571 578 -0.038 79.333   13  0.505   13  0.022   18 -0.036   12 0.5044  0.357 -0.116  0.044 -0.614
CLEVELAND      80  82 704 760  0.007 82.306   14  0.498   14 -0.007   21 -0.055   16 0.4980  0.508 -0.003 -0.108  0.049
LA DODGERS     82  79 644 612 -0.042 78.491   15  0.497   15 -0.013   14 -0.005   14 0.4995  0.416 -0.034  0.024 -0.181
WASHINGTON     80  81 625 643 -0.019 80.062   16  0.495   16 -0.017   17 -0.030   15 0.4988  0.387 -0.084  0.024 -0.136
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 654 706 -0.002 81.664   17  0.494   17 -0.022   19 -0.041   18 0.4959  0.302 -0.166  0.085  0.094
NY METS        77  85 718 742  0.007 82.207   18  0.489   18 -0.034   16 -0.027   17 0.4960  0.732  0.240 -0.295 -0.224
OAKLAND        74  88 645 679  0.042 84.472   19  0.486   19 -0.041   13 -0.005   20 0.4926  0.336 -0.103  0.093  0.022
CINCINNATI     79  83 735 720 -0.043 78.974   20  0.483   20 -0.046   15 -0.021   19 0.4941  0.511  0.034 -0.077  0.107
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE      69  93 708 860  0.070 86.401   21  0.450   21 -0.072   25 -0.081   23 0.4871  0.617  0.073 -0.235  0.084
FLORIDA        72  90 625 703  0.007 82.287   22  0.430   22 -0.082   23 -0.075   21 0.4886  0.488 -0.041 -0.109 -0.155
COLORADO       73  89 735 775 -0.024 80.261   23  0.404   23 -0.091   24 -0.076   22 0.4873  0.452 -0.073 -0.078  0.468
KANSAS CITY    71  91 730 762  0.003 81.981   24  0.400   24 -0.093   20 -0.044   24 0.4852  0.520  0.019 -0.107  0.054
SEATTLE        67  95 556 675  0.058 85.643   25  0.374   25 -0.098   26 -0.090   28 0.4828  0.251 -0.257  0.078 -0.089
PITTSBURGH     72  90 611 712 -0.040 79.323   26  0.321   26 -0.111   28 -0.126   25 0.4833  0.432 -0.141 -0.111 -0.137
CHI CUBS       71  91 654 756 -0.029 80.011   28  0.307   27 -0.114   27 -0.125   27 0.4829  0.573 -0.012 -0.237 -0.128
SAN DIEGO      71  91 593 611 -0.033 79.653   27  0.308   28 -0.116   22 -0.070   26 0.4832  0.397 -0.116 -0.024 -0.408
MINNESOTA      63  99 619 804  0.030 83.846   29  0.110   29 -0.155   29 -0.172   29 0.4753  0.505 -0.122 -0.221 -0.004
HOUSTON        56 106 615 796 -0.015 80.986   30  0.000   30 -0.248   30 -0.201   30 0.4620  0.424 -0.224 -0.178  0.142

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA        96  71 756 685 -0.047 81.019    8  0.575    8  0.086   10  0.047    8 0.5147  0.444  0.042  0.052  0.183
SAN FRANCISCO  86  76 571 578 -0.038 79.333   13  0.505   13  0.022   18 -0.036   12 0.5044  0.357 -0.116  0.044 -0.614
LA DODGERS     82  79 644 612 -0.042 78.491   15  0.497   15 -0.013   14 -0.005   14 0.4995  0.416 -0.034  0.024 -0.181
COLORADO       73  89 735 775 -0.024 80.261   23  0.404   23 -0.091   24 -0.076   22 0.4873  0.452 -0.073 -0.078  0.468
SAN DIEGO      71  91 593 611 -0.033 79.653   27  0.308   28 -0.116   22 -0.070   26 0.4832  0.397 -0.116 -0.024 -0.408

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MILWAUKEE     101  72 770 706 -0.041 84.349    7  0.641    7  0.106    9  0.049    5 0.5171  0.395  0.001  0.097  0.068
ST. LOUIS     101  79 862 770 -0.028 88.661    9  0.554    9  0.079    7  0.066    9 0.5132  0.729  0.331 -0.198 -0.292
CINCINNATI     79  83 735 720 -0.043 78.974   20  0.483   20 -0.046   15 -0.021   19 0.4941  0.511  0.034 -0.077  0.107
PITTSBURGH     72  90 611 712 -0.040 79.323   26  0.321   26 -0.111   28 -0.126   25 0.4833  0.432 -0.141 -0.111 -0.137
CHI CUBS       71  91 654 756 -0.029 80.011   28  0.307   27 -0.114   27 -0.125   27 0.4829  0.573 -0.012 -0.237 -0.128
HOUSTON        56 106 615 796 -0.015 80.986   30  0.000   30 -0.248   30 -0.201   30 0.4620  0.424 -0.224 -0.178  0.142

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  104  63 734 548 -0.027 82.292    1  0.955    1  0.174    3  0.173    1 0.5288  0.320  0.062  0.284 -0.127
ATLANTA        89  73 641 605 -0.020 80.394   11  0.532   11  0.063   11  0.040   10 0.5112  0.378 -0.023  0.102 -0.222
WASHINGTON     80  81 625 643 -0.019 80.062   16  0.495   16 -0.017   17 -0.030   15 0.4988  0.387 -0.084  0.024 -0.136
NY METS        77  85 718 742  0.007 82.207   18  0.489   18 -0.034   16 -0.027   17 0.4960  0.732  0.240 -0.295 -0.224
FLORIDA        72  90 625 703  0.007 82.287   22  0.430   22 -0.082   23 -0.075   21 0.4886  0.488 -0.041 -0.109 -0.155

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TEXAS         106  73 940 761  0.022 91.606    3  0.920    3  0.161    2  0.195    3 0.5234  0.357  0.115  0.275  0.613
LA ANGELS      86  76 667 633  0.027 83.371   10  0.533   10  0.063    8  0.058   11 0.5081  0.392  0.008  0.109 -0.210
OAKLAND        74  88 645 679  0.042 84.472   19  0.486   19 -0.041   13 -0.005   20 0.4926  0.336 -0.103  0.093  0.022
SEATTLE        67  95 556 675  0.058 85.643   25  0.374   25 -0.098   26 -0.090   28 0.4828  0.251 -0.257  0.078 -0.089

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       100  73 829 778  0.001 87.220    4  0.722    4  0.122    6  0.075    4 0.5177  0.503  0.123  0.027  0.213
CLEVELAND      80  82 704 760  0.007 82.306   14  0.498   14 -0.007   21 -0.055   16 0.4980  0.508 -0.003 -0.108  0.049
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 654 706 -0.002 81.664   17  0.494   17 -0.022   19 -0.041   18 0.4959  0.302 -0.166  0.085  0.094
KANSAS CITY    71  91 730 762  0.003 81.981   24  0.400   24 -0.093   20 -0.044   24 0.4852  0.520  0.019 -0.107  0.054
MINNESOTA      63  99 619 804  0.030 83.846   29  0.110   29 -0.155   29 -0.172   29 0.4753  0.505 -0.122 -0.221 -0.004

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY YANKEES     99  68 895 674  0.029 85.959    2  0.927    2  0.164    1  0.227    2 0.5247  0.432  0.212  0.243  0.314
TAMPA BAY      92  74 728 630  0.043 86.394    6  0.666    5  0.110    5  0.122    7 0.5155  0.421  0.097  0.147 -0.274
BOSTON         90  72 875 737  0.038 83.936    5  0.667    6  0.108    4  0.145    6 0.5157  0.519  0.207  0.082  0.416
TORONTO        81  81 743 761  0.063 85.791   12  0.511   12  0.037   12  0.024   13 0.5040  0.375 -0.041  0.089  0.372
BALTIMORE      69  93 708 860  0.070 86.401   21  0.450   21 -0.072   25 -0.081   23 0.4871  0.617  0.073 -0.235  0.084

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    431 388 0.526    1  0.124
AL WEST    333 332 0.501    2  0.055
NL EAST    422 392 0.518    3  0.023
NL WEST    408 406 0.501    4 -0.039
AL CENTRAL 393 428 0.479    5 -0.066
NL CENTRAL 480 521 0.480    6 -0.084

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.054 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Oct 29 05:30:30 2011
games through: Fri Oct 28 2011

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