Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            83 58 750 600  0.091 75.124    3  0.984    3  0.216    1  0.263    3 0.5322  0.520  0.245  0.282  0.161
TAMPA BAY         85 55 658 572  0.095 74.892    1  1.001    1  0.247    2  0.183    1 0.5360  0.462  0.112  0.255 -0.078
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 80 60 714 617  0.078 73.920    4  0.919    4  0.175    3  0.169    4 0.5255  0.475  0.109  0.228  0.192
TORONTO           74 66 625 542  0.096 74.948    8  0.714    8  0.115    4  0.168    7 0.5177  0.315 -0.029  0.365 -0.012
L.A. ANGELS       85 56 654 600  0.077 74.440    2  0.989    2  0.227    5  0.152    2 0.5323  0.403  0.028  0.275  0.109
MINNESOTA         78 64 721 645  0.066 74.354    5  0.779    5  0.130    6  0.150    6 0.5185  0.680  0.284  0.016 -0.161
CHICAGO CUBS      86 56 766 589 -0.092 65.379    7  0.736    7  0.120    7  0.135    8 0.5173  0.597  0.188  0.081  0.013
N.Y. YANKEES      76 66 692 648  0.099 76.212    6  0.767    6  0.128    8  0.133    5 0.5189  0.481  0.079  0.187  0.189
CLEVELAND         68 72 681 639  0.057 72.838   14  0.514   15  0.014    9  0.097   14 0.5031  0.564  0.119  0.075 -0.003
MILWAUKEE         82 60 671 593 -0.071 66.658    9  0.611    9  0.085   10  0.054    9 0.5117  0.507  0.024  0.085 -0.109
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA      77 64 679 585 -0.078 65.854   12  0.524   12  0.026   11  0.044   13 0.5031  0.497  0.004  0.084 -0.006
N.Y. METS         79 62 693 609 -0.089 65.227   10  0.538   10  0.043   12  0.041   11 0.5055  0.619  0.116 -0.034 -0.175
BALTIMORE         62 77 706 752  0.115 75.704   18  0.494   18 -0.014   13  0.025   17 0.5000  0.775  0.256 -0.205  0.064
DETROIT           68 74 713 730  0.079 75.280   15  0.512   14  0.018   14  0.020   16 0.5022  0.612  0.088 -0.048  0.245
OAKLAND           65 77 559 591  0.086 75.711   17  0.495   17 -0.013   15  0.015   18 0.4992  0.284 -0.207  0.237 -0.074
ST. LOUIS         76 66 682 632 -0.069 66.855   16  0.510   16  0.014   16  0.009   15 0.5025  0.585  0.050 -0.033 -0.124
TEXAS             70 73 785 852  0.081 75.990   11  0.531   11  0.037   17 -0.006   10 0.5056  0.873  0.328 -0.341  0.250
HOUSTON           75 67 633 658 -0.037 68.746   13  0.519   13  0.023   18 -0.031   12 0.5038  0.462 -0.102  0.040  0.104
L.A. DODGERS      72 70 598 574 -0.087 65.943   20  0.472   20 -0.047   19 -0.043   21 0.4924  0.525 -0.056 -0.029 -0.428
ARIZONA           71 70 640 626 -0.099 64.789   22  0.452   22 -0.062   20 -0.053   22 0.4895  0.365 -0.209  0.102  0.313
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KANSAS CITY       61 80 582 706  0.093 75.696   21  0.464   21 -0.053   21 -0.077   19 0.4929  0.493 -0.119 -0.034 -0.046
SEATTLE           55 86 588 699  0.076 74.769   25  0.211   25 -0.136   22 -0.085   24 0.4810  0.546 -0.080 -0.090 -0.154
FLORIDA           72 70 659 690 -0.080 66.420   19  0.475   19 -0.042   23 -0.086   20 0.4924  0.690  0.057 -0.230 -0.113
ATLANTA           62 81 659 687 -0.084 66.697   27  0.107   27 -0.171   24 -0.111   27 0.4754  0.567 -0.085 -0.136  0.060
COLORADO          67 76 663 722 -0.093 66.249   23  0.291   23 -0.118   25 -0.131   23 0.4821  0.566 -0.107 -0.156  0.227
CINCINNATI        63 79 620 714 -0.050 68.255   24  0.238   24 -0.129   26 -0.156   25 0.4810  0.548 -0.149 -0.164  0.068
PITTSBURGH        60 81 643 774 -0.035 68.663   26  0.155   26 -0.152   27 -0.182   26 0.4787  0.819  0.095 -0.458 -0.239
SAN FRANCISCO     61 80 546 664 -0.085 65.829   28  0.094   28 -0.173   28 -0.209   28 0.4736  0.400 -0.335 -0.083  0.041
SAN DIEGO         54 88 544 661 -0.075 66.834   30  0.000   30 -0.258   29 -0.213   30 0.4621  0.569 -0.186 -0.240 -0.391
WASHINGTON        55 88 557 710 -0.057 68.360   29  0.009   29 -0.238   30 -0.261   29 0.4652  0.404 -0.383 -0.139  0.076

NL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. DODGERS      72 70 598 574 -0.087 65.943   20  0.472   20 -0.047   19 -0.043   21 0.4924  0.525 -0.056 -0.029 -0.428
ARIZONA           71 70 640 626 -0.099 64.789   22  0.452   22 -0.062   20 -0.053   22 0.4895  0.365 -0.209  0.102  0.313
COLORADO          67 76 663 722 -0.093 66.249   23  0.291   23 -0.118   25 -0.131   23 0.4821  0.566 -0.107 -0.156  0.227
SAN FRANCISCO     61 80 546 664 -0.085 65.829   28  0.094   28 -0.173   28 -0.209   28 0.4736  0.400 -0.335 -0.083  0.041
SAN DIEGO         54 88 544 661 -0.075 66.834   30  0.000   30 -0.258   29 -0.213   30 0.4621  0.569 -0.186 -0.240 -0.391

NL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS      86 56 766 589 -0.092 65.379    7  0.736    7  0.120    7  0.135    8 0.5173  0.597  0.188  0.081  0.013
MILWAUKEE         82 60 671 593 -0.071 66.658    9  0.611    9  0.085   10  0.054    9 0.5117  0.507  0.024  0.085 -0.109
ST. LOUIS         76 66 682 632 -0.069 66.855   16  0.510   16  0.014   16  0.009   15 0.5025  0.585  0.050 -0.033 -0.124
HOUSTON           75 67 633 658 -0.037 68.746   13  0.519   13  0.023   18 -0.031   12 0.5038  0.462 -0.102  0.040  0.104
CINCINNATI        63 79 620 714 -0.050 68.255   24  0.238   24 -0.129   26 -0.156   25 0.4810  0.548 -0.149 -0.164  0.068
PITTSBURGH        60 81 643 774 -0.035 68.663   26  0.155   26 -0.152   27 -0.182   26 0.4787  0.819  0.095 -0.458 -0.239

NL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA      77 64 679 585 -0.078 65.854   12  0.524   12  0.026   11  0.044   13 0.5031  0.497  0.004  0.084 -0.006
N.Y. METS         79 62 693 609 -0.089 65.227   10  0.538   10  0.043   12  0.041   11 0.5055  0.619  0.116 -0.034 -0.175
FLORIDA           72 70 659 690 -0.080 66.420   19  0.475   19 -0.042   23 -0.086   20 0.4924  0.690  0.057 -0.230 -0.113
ATLANTA           62 81 659 687 -0.084 66.697   27  0.107   27 -0.171   24 -0.111   27 0.4754  0.567 -0.085 -0.136  0.060
WASHINGTON        55 88 557 710 -0.057 68.360   29  0.009   29 -0.238   30 -0.261   29 0.4652  0.404 -0.383 -0.139  0.076

AL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS       85 56 654 600  0.077 74.440    2  0.989    2  0.227    5  0.152    2 0.5323  0.403  0.028  0.275  0.109
OAKLAND           65 77 559 591  0.086 75.711   17  0.495   17 -0.013   15  0.015   18 0.4992  0.284 -0.207  0.237 -0.074
TEXAS             70 73 785 852  0.081 75.990   11  0.531   11  0.037   17 -0.006   10 0.5056  0.873  0.328 -0.341  0.250
SEATTLE           55 86 588 699  0.076 74.769   25  0.211   25 -0.136   22 -0.085   24 0.4810  0.546 -0.080 -0.090 -0.154

AL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 80 60 714 617  0.078 73.920    4  0.919    4  0.175    3  0.169    4 0.5255  0.475  0.109  0.228  0.192
MINNESOTA         78 64 721 645  0.066 74.354    5  0.779    5  0.130    6  0.150    6 0.5185  0.680  0.284  0.016 -0.161
CLEVELAND         68 72 681 639  0.057 72.838   14  0.514   15  0.014    9  0.097   14 0.5031  0.564  0.119  0.075 -0.003
DETROIT           68 74 713 730  0.079 75.280   15  0.512   14  0.018   14  0.020   16 0.5022  0.612  0.088 -0.048  0.245
KANSAS CITY       61 80 582 706  0.093 75.696   21  0.464   21 -0.053   21 -0.077   19 0.4929  0.493 -0.119 -0.034 -0.046

AL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            83 58 750 600  0.091 75.124    3  0.984    3  0.216    1  0.263    3 0.5322  0.520  0.245  0.282  0.161
TAMPA BAY         85 55 658 572  0.095 74.892    1  1.001    1  0.247    2  0.183    1 0.5360  0.462  0.112  0.255 -0.078
TORONTO           74 66 625 542  0.096 74.948    8  0.714    8  0.115    4  0.168    7 0.5177  0.315 -0.029  0.365 -0.012
N.Y. YANKEES      76 66 692 648  0.099 76.212    6  0.767    6  0.128    8  0.133    5 0.5189  0.481  0.079  0.187  0.189
BALTIMORE         62 77 706 752  0.115 75.704   18  0.494   18 -0.014   13  0.025   17 0.5000  0.775  0.256 -0.205  0.064

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    380 322 0.541    1  0.201
AL CENTRAL 355 350 0.504    2  0.093
AL WEST    275 292 0.485    3  0.024
NL CENTRAL 442 409 0.519    4 -0.037
NL EAST    345 365 0.486    5 -0.097
NL WEST    325 384 0.458    6 -0.169

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.108 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Sep  7 09:36:28 2008
games through: Sat Sep  6 2008

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