Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY YANKEES    114  63 995 805  0.068 92.926    1  1.010    1  0.290    1  0.256    1 0.5404  0.760  0.482  0.031 -0.138
LA ANGELS     102  69 918 801  0.074 90.304    2  0.979    2  0.211    2  0.189    2 0.5313  0.660  0.314  0.064  0.088
BOSTON         95  70 879 752  0.071 86.866    3  0.926    3  0.172    3  0.188    3 0.5239  0.532  0.191  0.184  0.181
LA DODGERS     99  72 810 655 -0.037 82.805    4  0.656    4  0.107    4  0.116    4 0.5174  0.545  0.131  0.100 -0.300
TEXAS          87  75 784 740  0.064 85.025    6  0.633    6  0.102    5  0.095    5 0.5157  0.467  0.039  0.151  0.191
PHILADELPHIA  102  75 902 772 -0.038 85.666    5  0.635    5  0.104    7  0.090    6 0.5147  0.574  0.132  0.047  0.057
SEATTLE        85  77 640 692  0.073 85.770    7  0.563    7  0.087   16  0.011    7 0.5129  0.295 -0.191  0.214 -0.068
COLORADO       93  73 819 735 -0.044 79.970    9  0.532    9  0.070   11  0.057    8 0.5116  0.455 -0.009  0.124  0.358
TAMPA BAY      84  78 803 754  0.072 85.485    8  0.547    8  0.077    6  0.090    9 0.5102  0.561  0.120  0.061  0.029
SAN FRANCISCO  89  74 660 612 -0.039 78.916   12  0.510   12  0.049   13  0.033   10 0.5086  0.191 -0.252  0.318  0.071
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA      87  79 823 780  0.025 84.569   11  0.515   11  0.055    9  0.062   11 0.5076  0.508  0.043  0.081  0.160
DETROIT        86  77 740 744  0.025 83.156   10  0.516   10  0.061   17  0.009   12 0.5075  0.400 -0.105  0.123  0.141
ST. LOUIS      91  74 736 653 -0.093 76.334   14  0.494   14  0.024   14  0.022   13 0.5038  0.500 -0.004  0.048 -0.197
FLORIDA        87  75 773 766 -0.045 78.156   13  0.496   13  0.030   18 -0.026   14 0.5036  0.547 -0.009 -0.043  0.133
ATLANTA        86  76 735 641 -0.053 77.524   15  0.491   15  0.015   12  0.048   15 0.5023  0.477  0.001  0.095 -0.240
OAKLAND        75  87 759 761  0.084 86.340   18  0.484   17 -0.006   10  0.058   16 0.5006  0.555  0.082  0.033  0.034
TORONTO        75  87 798 771  0.083 86.277   17  0.485   18 -0.007    8  0.075   17 0.4987  0.614  0.156 -0.005 -0.090
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 723 729  0.027 82.685   16  0.486   16 -0.004   15  0.017   18 0.4985  0.371 -0.122  0.156  0.176
CHI CUBS       83  78 705 672 -0.084 75.200   19  0.475   19 -0.030   19 -0.038   19 0.4963  0.321 -0.219  0.144  0.175
MILWAUKEE      80  82 785 818 -0.073 76.397   20  0.453   20 -0.059   21 -0.084   20 0.4916  0.859  0.246 -0.414 -0.220
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO      75  87 638 769 -0.021 79.901   21  0.423   21 -0.076   27 -0.148   21 0.4899  0.707  0.024 -0.320 -0.567
CINCINNATI     78  84 673 721 -0.085 75.690   22  0.403   22 -0.087   24 -0.095   22 0.4870  0.446 -0.170 -0.021 -0.068
HOUSTON        74  88 643 770 -0.064 77.151   24  0.297   24 -0.114   28 -0.172   23 0.4835  0.534 -0.166 -0.177 -0.148
BALTIMORE      64  98 741 876  0.095 87.298   23  0.299   23 -0.113   20 -0.080   24 0.4828  0.592 -0.021 -0.140  0.086
ARIZONA        70  92 720 782 -0.034 79.011   26  0.218   26 -0.134   23 -0.094   25 0.4822  0.423 -0.188  0.001  0.311
NY METS        70  92 671 758 -0.032 79.170   25  0.220   25 -0.133   25 -0.109   26 0.4807  0.528 -0.110 -0.109 -0.142
CLEVELAND      65  97 773 865  0.037 83.593   27  0.197   28 -0.138   22 -0.088   27 0.4791  0.827  0.207 -0.384 -0.244
KANSAS CITY    65  97 686 842  0.040 83.801   28  0.187   27 -0.138   26 -0.123   28 0.4788  0.450 -0.193 -0.052  0.246
PITTSBURGH     62  99 636 768 -0.069 76.360   29  0.003   29 -0.236   30 -0.216   29 0.4657  0.430 -0.304 -0.127  0.016
WASHINGTON     59 103 710 874 -0.030 79.386   30  0.000   30 -0.245   29 -0.207   30 0.4639  0.694 -0.048 -0.366 -0.031

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA DODGERS     99  72 810 655 -0.037 82.805    4  0.656    4  0.107    4  0.116    4 0.5174  0.545  0.131  0.100 -0.300
COLORADO       93  73 819 735 -0.044 79.970    9  0.532    9  0.070   11  0.057    8 0.5116  0.455 -0.009  0.124  0.358
SAN FRANCISCO  89  74 660 612 -0.039 78.916   12  0.510   12  0.049   13  0.033   10 0.5086  0.191 -0.252  0.318  0.071
SAN DIEGO      75  87 638 769 -0.021 79.901   21  0.423   21 -0.076   27 -0.148   21 0.4899  0.707  0.024 -0.320 -0.567
ARIZONA        70  92 720 782 -0.034 79.011   26  0.218   26 -0.134   23 -0.094   25 0.4822  0.423 -0.188  0.001  0.311

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS      91  74 736 653 -0.093 76.334   14  0.494   14  0.024   14  0.022   13 0.5038  0.500 -0.004  0.048 -0.197
CHI CUBS       83  78 705 672 -0.084 75.200   19  0.475   19 -0.030   19 -0.038   19 0.4963  0.321 -0.219  0.144  0.175
MILWAUKEE      80  82 785 818 -0.073 76.397   20  0.453   20 -0.059   21 -0.084   20 0.4916  0.859  0.246 -0.414 -0.220
CINCINNATI     78  84 673 721 -0.085 75.690   22  0.403   22 -0.087   24 -0.095   22 0.4870  0.446 -0.170 -0.021 -0.068
HOUSTON        74  88 643 770 -0.064 77.151   24  0.297   24 -0.114   28 -0.172   23 0.4835  0.534 -0.166 -0.177 -0.148
PITTSBURGH     62  99 636 768 -0.069 76.360   29  0.003   29 -0.236   30 -0.216   29 0.4657  0.430 -0.304 -0.127  0.016

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  102  75 902 772 -0.038 85.666    5  0.635    5  0.104    7  0.090    6 0.5147  0.574  0.132  0.047  0.057
FLORIDA        87  75 773 766 -0.045 78.156   13  0.496   13  0.030   18 -0.026   14 0.5036  0.547 -0.009 -0.043  0.133
ATLANTA        86  76 735 641 -0.053 77.524   15  0.491   15  0.015   12  0.048   15 0.5023  0.477  0.001  0.095 -0.240
NY METS        70  92 671 758 -0.032 79.170   25  0.220   25 -0.133   25 -0.109   26 0.4807  0.528 -0.110 -0.109 -0.142
WASHINGTON     59 103 710 874 -0.030 79.386   30  0.000   30 -0.245   29 -0.207   30 0.4639  0.694 -0.048 -0.366 -0.031

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA ANGELS     102  69 918 801  0.074 90.304    2  0.979    2  0.211    2  0.189    2 0.5313  0.660  0.314  0.064  0.088
TEXAS          87  75 784 740  0.064 85.025    6  0.633    6  0.102    5  0.095    5 0.5157  0.467  0.039  0.151  0.191
SEATTLE        85  77 640 692  0.073 85.770    7  0.563    7  0.087   16  0.011    7 0.5129  0.295 -0.191  0.214 -0.068
OAKLAND        75  87 759 761  0.084 86.340   18  0.484   17 -0.006   10  0.058   16 0.5006  0.555  0.082  0.033  0.034

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MINNESOTA      87  79 823 780  0.025 84.569   11  0.515   11  0.055    9  0.062   11 0.5076  0.508  0.043  0.081  0.160
DETROIT        86  77 740 744  0.025 83.156   10  0.516   10  0.061   17  0.009   12 0.5075  0.400 -0.105  0.123  0.141
CHI WHITE SOX  79  83 723 729  0.027 82.685   16  0.486   16 -0.004   15  0.017   18 0.4985  0.371 -0.122  0.156  0.176
CLEVELAND      65  97 773 865  0.037 83.593   27  0.197   28 -0.138   22 -0.088   27 0.4791  0.827  0.207 -0.384 -0.244
KANSAS CITY    65  97 686 842  0.040 83.801   28  0.187   27 -0.138   26 -0.123   28 0.4788  0.450 -0.193 -0.052  0.246

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY YANKEES    114  63 995 805  0.068 92.926    1  1.010    1  0.290    1  0.256    1 0.5404  0.760  0.482  0.031 -0.138
BOSTON         95  70 879 752  0.071 86.866    3  0.926    3  0.172    3  0.188    3 0.5239  0.532  0.191  0.184  0.181
TAMPA BAY      84  78 803 754  0.072 85.485    8  0.547    8  0.077    6  0.090    9 0.5102  0.561  0.120  0.061  0.029
TORONTO        75  87 798 771  0.083 86.277   17  0.485   18 -0.007    8  0.075   17 0.4987  0.614  0.156 -0.005 -0.090
BALTIMORE      64  98 741 876  0.095 87.298   23  0.299   23 -0.113   20 -0.080   24 0.4828  0.592 -0.021 -0.140  0.086

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    432 396 0.522    1  0.141
AL WEST    349 308 0.531    2  0.118
NL WEST    426 398 0.517    3 -0.009
AL CENTRAL 382 433 0.469    4 -0.032
NL EAST    404 421 0.490    5 -0.054
NL CENTRAL 468 505 0.481    6 -0.129

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.104 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Fri Nov  6 08:20:40 2009
games through: Wed Nov  4 2009

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