Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY         79 51 599 521  0.094 69.429    1  1.007    1  0.242    3  0.178    1 0.5361  0.442  0.092  0.265 -0.130
L.A. ANGELS       80 51 606 550  0.075 68.987    2  1.001    2  0.234    5  0.155    2 0.5336  0.389  0.023  0.287  0.163
BOSTON            76 55 677 562  0.092 69.814    3  0.970    3  0.197    1  0.229    3 0.5301  0.511  0.204  0.253  0.188
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 76 55 681 564  0.069 68.610    4  0.941    4  0.181    2  0.196    4 0.5271  0.501  0.162  0.229  0.162
CHICAGO CUBS      82 50 727 538 -0.089 60.714    6  0.835    6  0.145    4  0.168    5 0.5213  0.571  0.199  0.137  0.067
MINNESOTA         74 58 664 599  0.065 68.958    5  0.837    5  0.146    6  0.146    6 0.5211  0.643  0.246  0.047 -0.133
N.Y. YANKEES      70 61 635 592  0.088 69.648    7  0.724    7  0.117    8  0.126    7 0.5177  0.422  0.023  0.230  0.254
MILWAUKEE         77 55 632 558 -0.066 62.166    8  0.655    8  0.097   10  0.059    8 0.5140  0.520  0.043  0.075 -0.081
TORONTO           67 63 575 511  0.089 69.174    9  0.625    9  0.085    7  0.142    9 0.5136  0.353 -0.021  0.305 -0.059
ST. LOUIS         73 60 647 594 -0.075 62.217   10  0.536   10  0.032   16  0.015   10 0.5052  0.605  0.079 -0.048 -0.122
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND         64 67 637 606  0.065 68.497   14  0.528   14  0.024    9  0.092   11 0.5047  0.564  0.116  0.068  0.036
TEXAS             65 68 740 801  0.075 70.272   12  0.533   11  0.031   17 -0.008   12 0.5045  0.923  0.383 -0.399  0.207
DETROIT           64 68 662 658  0.083 70.116   11  0.535   12  0.031   12  0.042   13 0.5040  0.601  0.101 -0.017  0.203
BALTIMORE         61 69 666 673  0.099 69.834   15  0.522   15  0.015   11  0.056   14 0.5037  0.714  0.227 -0.115  0.107
PHILADELPHIA      73 59 642 549 -0.092 60.819   13  0.531   13  0.027   13  0.035   15 0.5031  0.526  0.024  0.045 -0.033
N.Y. METS         73 60 654 584 -0.102 60.784   16  0.521   16  0.015   14  0.021   16 0.5012  0.634  0.112 -0.071 -0.174
OAKLAND           60 72 513 536  0.084 70.180   17  0.499   17 -0.020   15  0.018   17 0.4982  0.242 -0.236  0.271 -0.061
HOUSTON           66 66 591 636 -0.036 63.977   18  0.497   18 -0.024   20 -0.065   18 0.4973  0.513 -0.087 -0.042  0.104
FLORIDA           67 65 613 643 -0.081 61.625   20  0.481   19 -0.041   22 -0.090   19 0.4926  0.739  0.107 -0.286 -0.193
ARIZONA           68 64 608 573 -0.100 60.503   19  0.484   20 -0.042   18 -0.021   20 0.4924  0.351 -0.186  0.144  0.326
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
KANSAS CITY       56 76 537 668  0.105 71.430   21  0.459   21 -0.058   21 -0.085   21 0.4923  0.499 -0.120 -0.049 -0.044
L.A. DODGERS      65 67 542 534 -0.074 61.943   22  0.454   22 -0.062   19 -0.056   22 0.4904  0.507 -0.084 -0.027 -0.443
COLORADO          63 71 631 684 -0.081 62.618   23  0.345   23 -0.105   25 -0.116   23 0.4837  0.569 -0.087 -0.145  0.269
CINCINNATI        58 74 556 660 -0.041 63.878   24  0.252   24 -0.128   27 -0.168   24 0.4809  0.560 -0.148 -0.189 -0.043
PITTSBURGH        57 75 611 729 -0.029 64.536   25  0.232   25 -0.134   26 -0.167   25 0.4807  0.826  0.119 -0.453 -0.212
SEATTLE           50 82 547 663  0.073 69.762   28  0.156   28 -0.156   24 -0.102   26 0.4778  0.587 -0.055 -0.148 -0.190
ATLANTA           58 74 600 621 -0.075 61.957   26  0.184   26 -0.152   23 -0.095   27 0.4776  0.485 -0.144 -0.047  0.153
SAN FRANCISCO     58 74 505 611 -0.078 61.935   27  0.165   27 -0.154   28 -0.192   28 0.4757  0.351 -0.357 -0.028  0.097
SAN DIEGO         50 82 507 618 -0.073 62.174   29  0.017   29 -0.254   29 -0.211   29 0.4618  0.582 -0.170 -0.252 -0.433
WASHINGTON        47 85 488 657 -0.051 63.480   30  0.000   30 -0.277   30 -0.287   30 0.4597  0.392 -0.417 -0.157  0.014

NL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA           68 64 608 573 -0.100 60.503   19  0.484   20 -0.042   18 -0.021   20 0.4924  0.351 -0.186  0.144  0.326
L.A. DODGERS      65 67 542 534 -0.074 61.943   22  0.454   22 -0.062   19 -0.056   22 0.4904  0.507 -0.084 -0.027 -0.443
COLORADO          63 71 631 684 -0.081 62.618   23  0.345   23 -0.105   25 -0.116   23 0.4837  0.569 -0.087 -0.145  0.269
SAN FRANCISCO     58 74 505 611 -0.078 61.935   27  0.165   27 -0.154   28 -0.192   28 0.4757  0.351 -0.357 -0.028  0.097
SAN DIEGO         50 82 507 618 -0.073 62.174   29  0.017   29 -0.254   29 -0.211   29 0.4618  0.582 -0.170 -0.252 -0.433

NL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS      82 50 727 538 -0.089 60.714    6  0.835    6  0.145    4  0.168    5 0.5213  0.571  0.199  0.137  0.067
MILWAUKEE         77 55 632 558 -0.066 62.166    8  0.655    8  0.097   10  0.059    8 0.5140  0.520  0.043  0.075 -0.081
ST. LOUIS         73 60 647 594 -0.075 62.217   10  0.536   10  0.032   16  0.015   10 0.5052  0.605  0.079 -0.048 -0.122
HOUSTON           66 66 591 636 -0.036 63.977   18  0.497   18 -0.024   20 -0.065   18 0.4973  0.513 -0.087 -0.042  0.104
CINCINNATI        58 74 556 660 -0.041 63.878   24  0.252   24 -0.128   27 -0.168   24 0.4809  0.560 -0.148 -0.189 -0.043
PITTSBURGH        57 75 611 729 -0.029 64.536   25  0.232   25 -0.134   26 -0.167   25 0.4807  0.826  0.119 -0.453 -0.212

NL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA      73 59 642 549 -0.092 60.819   13  0.531   13  0.027   13  0.035   15 0.5031  0.526  0.024  0.045 -0.033
N.Y. METS         73 60 654 584 -0.102 60.784   16  0.521   16  0.015   14  0.021   16 0.5012  0.634  0.112 -0.071 -0.174
FLORIDA           67 65 613 643 -0.081 61.625   20  0.481   19 -0.041   22 -0.090   19 0.4926  0.739  0.107 -0.286 -0.193
ATLANTA           58 74 600 621 -0.075 61.957   26  0.184   26 -0.152   23 -0.095   27 0.4776  0.485 -0.144 -0.047  0.153
WASHINGTON        47 85 488 657 -0.051 63.480   30  0.000   30 -0.277   30 -0.287   30 0.4597  0.392 -0.417 -0.157  0.014

AL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS       80 51 606 550  0.075 68.987    2  1.001    2  0.234    5  0.155    2 0.5336  0.389  0.023  0.287  0.163
TEXAS             65 68 740 801  0.075 70.272   12  0.533   11  0.031   17 -0.008   12 0.5045  0.923  0.383 -0.399  0.207
OAKLAND           60 72 513 536  0.084 70.180   17  0.499   17 -0.020   15  0.018   17 0.4982  0.242 -0.236  0.271 -0.061
SEATTLE           50 82 547 663  0.073 69.762   28  0.156   28 -0.156   24 -0.102   26 0.4778  0.587 -0.055 -0.148 -0.190

AL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 76 55 681 564  0.069 68.610    4  0.941    4  0.181    2  0.196    4 0.5271  0.501  0.162  0.229  0.162
MINNESOTA         74 58 664 599  0.065 68.958    5  0.837    5  0.146    6  0.146    6 0.5211  0.643  0.246  0.047 -0.133
CLEVELAND         64 67 637 606  0.065 68.497   14  0.528   14  0.024    9  0.092   11 0.5047  0.564  0.116  0.068  0.036
DETROIT           64 68 662 658  0.083 70.116   11  0.535   12  0.031   12  0.042   13 0.5040  0.601  0.101 -0.017  0.203
KANSAS CITY       56 76 537 668  0.105 71.430   21  0.459   21 -0.058   21 -0.085   21 0.4923  0.499 -0.120 -0.049 -0.044

AL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY         79 51 599 521  0.094 69.429    1  1.007    1  0.242    3  0.178    1 0.5361  0.442  0.092  0.265 -0.130
BOSTON            76 55 677 562  0.092 69.814    3  0.970    3  0.197    1  0.229    3 0.5301  0.511  0.204  0.253  0.188
N.Y. YANKEES      70 61 635 592  0.088 69.648    7  0.724    7  0.117    8  0.126    7 0.5177  0.422  0.023  0.230  0.254
TORONTO           67 63 575 511  0.089 69.174    9  0.625    9  0.085    7  0.142    9 0.5136  0.353 -0.021  0.305 -0.059
BALTIMORE         61 69 666 673  0.099 69.834   15  0.522   15  0.015   11  0.056   14 0.5037  0.714  0.227 -0.115  0.107

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    353 299 0.541    1  0.193
AL CENTRAL 334 324 0.508    2  0.103
AL WEST    255 273 0.483    3  0.021
NL CENTRAL 413 380 0.521    4 -0.035
NL EAST    318 343 0.481    5 -0.110
NL WEST    304 358 0.459    6 -0.158

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.107 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Aug 27 08:25:58 2008
games through: Tue Aug 26 2008

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