Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      84 44 711 487  0.035 64.570    1  1.474    1  0.323    1  0.352    1 0.5427  0.613  0.387  0.318 -0.293
YANKEES      83 45 753 610 -0.067 59.395    2  1.364    2  0.230    3  0.164    3 0.5266  0.967  0.568 -0.240 -0.363
ASTROS       81 47 697 516 -0.034 60.930    3  1.362    3  0.224    2  0.231    2 0.5282  0.509  0.167  0.294 -0.064
BRAVES       76 52 688 617  0.019 63.854    4  1.314    4  0.188    7  0.128    4 0.5257  0.750  0.298 -0.043 -0.003
TWINS        77 50 740 592 -0.083 58.116    5  1.185    5  0.138    5  0.138    5 0.5170  0.824  0.386 -0.109 -0.141
ATHLETICS    73 53 636 536 -0.023 60.727    6  1.161    6  0.131    9  0.124    6 0.5159  0.570  0.117  0.131 -0.233
RAYS         74 54 597 503 -0.052 60.236    7  1.083    7  0.107   10  0.102   10 0.5118  0.351 -0.100  0.303 -0.105
CUBS         68 58 627 554  0.039 63.869    8  1.071    8  0.103    4  0.148    7 0.5151  0.588  0.159  0.138 -0.106
CARDINALS    67 58 561 527  0.040 63.518    9  1.035    9  0.096   12  0.075    9 0.5134  0.507  0.010  0.141 -0.231
NATIONALS    69 57 668 580  0.005 62.135   10  1.030   10  0.093    6  0.136    8 0.5145  0.556  0.116  0.156  0.171
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      74 53 600 510 -0.100 57.407   11  1.002   11  0.081   15  0.047   14 0.5080  0.416 -0.099  0.193 -0.080
BREWERS      65 62 610 645  0.067 65.985   12  0.974   12  0.071   16  0.019   12 0.5102  0.633  0.072 -0.034  0.026
METS         66 60 615 591  0.024 63.201   13  0.961   14  0.062   13  0.058   11 0.5110  0.638  0.116 -0.001 -0.095
PHILLIES     66 60 600 614  0.030 63.580   14  0.958   13  0.065   17  0.011   13 0.5100  0.507 -0.054  0.076  0.155
DIAMONDBACKS 64 64 665 601  0.057 65.822   15  0.932   16  0.042    8  0.126   15 0.5076  0.675  0.220  0.031 -0.189
GIANTS       63 64 562 617  0.079 66.643   16  0.918   15  0.050   20 -0.034   16 0.5066  0.676  0.062 -0.130 -0.477
RED SOX      67 61 735 657 -0.058 60.005   17  0.868   17  0.000   14  0.049   19 0.4980  0.715  0.183 -0.086  0.221
REDS         60 66 570 546  0.058 64.955   18  0.867   18 -0.000   11  0.078   17 0.5021  0.385 -0.095  0.251  0.070
PADRES       59 67 564 604  0.051 64.719   19  0.845   19 -0.021   19 -0.014   18 0.4986  0.591 -0.001 -0.027 -0.204
ROCKIES      58 69 678 737  0.078 66.565   20  0.842   20 -0.024   18 -0.009   20 0.4977  0.571 -0.015 -0.004  0.619
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RANGERS      63 65 653 685 -0.019 62.217   21  0.838   21 -0.028   21 -0.041   21 0.4943  0.592 -0.027 -0.055  0.290
ANGELS       63 67 658 686 -0.034 62.451   22  0.806   22 -0.054   22 -0.069   22 0.4912  0.616 -0.032 -0.106  0.133
PIRATES      52 74 577 696  0.072 65.874   23  0.665   23 -0.111   23 -0.110   23 0.4868  0.658 -0.031 -0.188  0.064
WHITE SOX    57 69 532 654 -0.058 59.650   24  0.600   24 -0.130   27 -0.215   24 0.4807  0.503 -0.284 -0.147  0.061
MARINERS     54 74 629 725 -0.011 62.797   25  0.528   25 -0.155   25 -0.148   25 0.4789  0.784  0.057 -0.353 -0.026
MARLINS      45 80 454 609  0.072 65.464   26  0.417   26 -0.211   26 -0.209   26 0.4755  0.198 -0.533  0.115  0.173
BLUE JAYS    52 77 581 648 -0.041 61.792   27  0.414   27 -0.212   24 -0.143   27 0.4712  0.463 -0.248 -0.039  0.069
ORIOLES      41 86 555 807  0.015 63.871   28  0.260   28 -0.326   29 -0.326   28 0.4570  0.628 -0.277 -0.375  0.206
ROYALS       45 82 538 660 -0.079 59.100   29  0.253   29 -0.331   28 -0.261   29 0.4568  0.474 -0.356 -0.166  0.121
TIGERS       38 86 446 686 -0.065 58.599   30  0.000   30 -0.412   30 -0.420   30 0.4454  0.335 -0.635 -0.206  0.229

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      84 44 711 487  0.035 64.570    1  1.474    1  0.323    1  0.352    1 0.5427  0.613  0.387  0.318 -0.293
DIAMONDBACKS 64 64 665 601  0.057 65.822   15  0.932   16  0.042    8  0.126   15 0.5076  0.675  0.220  0.031 -0.189
GIANTS       63 64 562 617  0.079 66.643   16  0.918   15  0.050   20 -0.034   16 0.5066  0.676  0.062 -0.130 -0.477
PADRES       59 67 564 604  0.051 64.719   19  0.845   19 -0.021   19 -0.014   18 0.4986  0.591 -0.001 -0.027 -0.204
ROCKIES      58 69 678 737  0.078 66.565   20  0.842   20 -0.024   18 -0.009   20 0.4977  0.571 -0.015 -0.004  0.619

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         68 58 627 554  0.039 63.869    8  1.071    8  0.103    4  0.148    7 0.5151  0.588  0.159  0.138 -0.106
CARDINALS    67 58 561 527  0.040 63.518    9  1.035    9  0.096   12  0.075    9 0.5134  0.507  0.010  0.141 -0.231
BREWERS      65 62 610 645  0.067 65.985   12  0.974   12  0.071   16  0.019   12 0.5102  0.633  0.072 -0.034  0.026
REDS         60 66 570 546  0.058 64.955   18  0.867   18 -0.000   11  0.078   17 0.5021  0.385 -0.095  0.251  0.070
PIRATES      52 74 577 696  0.072 65.874   23  0.665   23 -0.111   23 -0.110   23 0.4868  0.658 -0.031 -0.188  0.064

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       76 52 688 617  0.019 63.854    4  1.314    4  0.188    7  0.128    4 0.5257  0.750  0.298 -0.043 -0.003
NATIONALS    69 57 668 580  0.005 62.135   10  1.030   10  0.093    6  0.136    8 0.5145  0.556  0.116  0.156  0.171
METS         66 60 615 591  0.024 63.201   13  0.961   14  0.062   13  0.058   11 0.5110  0.638  0.116 -0.001 -0.095
PHILLIES     66 60 600 614  0.030 63.580   14  0.958   13  0.065   17  0.011   13 0.5100  0.507 -0.054  0.076  0.155
MARLINS      45 80 454 609  0.072 65.464   26  0.417   26 -0.211   26 -0.209   26 0.4755  0.198 -0.533  0.115  0.173

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       81 47 697 516 -0.034 60.930    3  1.362    3  0.224    2  0.231    2 0.5282  0.509  0.167  0.294 -0.064
ATHLETICS    73 53 636 536 -0.023 60.727    6  1.161    6  0.131    9  0.124    6 0.5159  0.570  0.117  0.131 -0.233
RANGERS      63 65 653 685 -0.019 62.217   21  0.838   21 -0.028   21 -0.041   21 0.4943  0.592 -0.027 -0.055  0.290
ANGELS       63 67 658 686 -0.034 62.451   22  0.806   22 -0.054   22 -0.069   22 0.4912  0.616 -0.032 -0.106  0.133
MARINERS     54 74 629 725 -0.011 62.797   25  0.528   25 -0.155   25 -0.148   25 0.4789  0.784  0.057 -0.353 -0.026

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS        77 50 740 592 -0.083 58.116    5  1.185    5  0.138    5  0.138    5 0.5170  0.824  0.386 -0.109 -0.141
INDIANS      74 53 600 510 -0.100 57.407   11  1.002   11  0.081   15  0.047   14 0.5080  0.416 -0.099  0.193 -0.080
WHITE SOX    57 69 532 654 -0.058 59.650   24  0.600   24 -0.130   27 -0.215   24 0.4807  0.503 -0.284 -0.147  0.061
ROYALS       45 82 538 660 -0.079 59.100   29  0.253   29 -0.331   28 -0.261   29 0.4568  0.474 -0.356 -0.166  0.121
TIGERS       38 86 446 686 -0.065 58.599   30  0.000   30 -0.412   30 -0.420   30 0.4454  0.335 -0.635 -0.206  0.229

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      83 45 753 610 -0.067 59.395    2  1.364    2  0.230    3  0.164    3 0.5266  0.967  0.568 -0.240 -0.363
RAYS         74 54 597 503 -0.052 60.236    7  1.083    7  0.107   10  0.102   10 0.5118  0.351 -0.100  0.303 -0.105
RED SOX      67 61 735 657 -0.058 60.005   17  0.868   17  0.000   14  0.049   19 0.4980  0.715  0.183 -0.086  0.221
BLUE JAYS    52 77 581 648 -0.041 61.792   27  0.414   27 -0.212   24 -0.143   27 0.4712  0.463 -0.248 -0.039  0.069
ORIOLES      41 86 555 807  0.015 63.871   28  0.260   28 -0.326   29 -0.326   28 0.4570  0.628 -0.277 -0.375  0.206

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    328 308 0.516    1  0.102
NL CENTRAL 312 318 0.495    2  0.052
NL EAST    322 309 0.510    3  0.031
AL WEST    334 306 0.522    4  0.024
AL EAST    317 323 0.495    5 -0.037
AL CENTRAL 291 340 0.461    6 -0.175

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.046 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Aug 22 05:30:10 2019
games through: Wed Aug 21 2019

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