Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 37 478 387 -0.021 46.307    1  0.182    1  0.156    3  0.149    1 0.5261   12  0.582    6  0.252   17  0.047   20 -0.075
CUBS         56 39 508 392  0.011 46.958    2  0.155    2  0.138    1  0.180    2 0.5226   10  0.597    3  0.297   16  0.064   12  0.052
ASTROS       56 39 417 357 -0.012 46.216    3  0.127    3  0.122    5  0.099    3 0.5208   17  0.397   14  0.034    5  0.163   14 -0.018
DODGERS      57 39 513 447 -0.028 46.056    4  0.124    4  0.121    8  0.081    5 0.5192    9  0.606    9  0.207   18 -0.045    4  0.317
BLUE JAYS    55 40 437 417  0.012 47.181    5  0.124    5  0.121   11  0.055    4 0.5201   19  0.382   17 -0.022    7  0.132    6  0.264
BREWERS      55 40 449 375 -0.013 46.122    6  0.100    6  0.106    4  0.109    6 0.5163    4  0.714    1  0.341   22 -0.123   30 -0.506
METS         55 41 424 378 -0.021 46.365    7  0.082    7  0.095   10  0.060    9 0.5136   20  0.360   19 -0.036    6  0.155   23 -0.099
PHILLIES     54 41 436 374 -0.028 45.584    8  0.071    8  0.085    7  0.093    8 0.5138   28  0.216   21 -0.120    1  0.305    2  0.413
YANKEES      53 42 500 386 -0.000 46.582    9  0.070    9  0.084    2  0.179    7 0.5162   11  0.586    4  0.286   14  0.073   17 -0.027
PADRES       52 43 382 374 -0.001 46.725   10  0.048   10  0.069   16  0.017   10 0.5105   25  0.286   23 -0.140    4  0.174   19 -0.067
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      52 45 487 429 -0.003 47.537   11  0.031   11  0.051    9  0.080   13 0.5074    6  0.682    5  0.280   21 -0.120   13  0.007
MARINERS     50 45 443 415  0.016 47.325   12  0.027   12  0.047   12  0.048   11 0.5086    2  0.736    2  0.301   25 -0.206   28 -0.482
GIANTS       52 44 397 377 -0.025 46.316   13  0.026   13  0.046   17  0.015   12 0.5074   27  0.248   25 -0.173    3  0.202   16 -0.022
CARDINALS    50 46 439 423  0.024 48.151   14  0.025   14  0.044   14  0.041   14 0.5066    7  0.661    8  0.221   23 -0.138   25 -0.133
RAYS         50 46 448 384  0.015 47.709   15  0.021   15  0.038    6  0.096   15 0.5063   15  0.495   12  0.119   13  0.073   15 -0.020
REDS         49 47 437 408 -0.009 46.901   16  0.006   16  0.010   15  0.029   18 0.5004   13  0.575   11  0.125   20 -0.067   24 -0.125
TWINS        47 48 401 408  0.013 47.298   17  0.002   17  0.001   18  0.011   16 0.5008   21  0.359   20 -0.086   10  0.108    7  0.248
ANGELS       47 48 417 475  0.013 47.387   18  0.000   18 -0.001   24 -0.078   17 0.5006   14  0.537   16 -0.018   24 -0.139    8  0.139
GUARDIANS    45 49 347 393  0.035 47.686   19 -0.004   19 -0.011   22 -0.057   19 0.4998   24  0.322   26 -0.184   15  0.071   22 -0.089
RANGERS      47 49 388 345 -0.007 46.954   20 -0.008   20 -0.019   13  0.046   20 0.4973   18  0.383   18 -0.031    9  0.122   29 -0.483
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       46 50 325 354  0.013 47.886   21 -0.011   21 -0.022   21 -0.053   21 0.4953   26  0.255   27 -0.236    8  0.129   26 -0.260
DIAMONDBACKS 46 50 488 487 -0.016 46.672   22 -0.019   22 -0.040   19  0.001   22 0.4932    3  0.718    7  0.237   26 -0.234   10  0.097
ORIOLES      43 51 392 472  0.020 47.201   23 -0.029   23 -0.050   26 -0.108   23 0.4912   16  0.407   24 -0.163   19 -0.052    3  0.320
MARLINS      43 51 397 462 -0.007 46.218   24 -0.043   24 -0.067   25 -0.106   24 0.4876    1  0.749   10  0.161   29 -0.373   27 -0.387
BRAVES       42 52 384 381 -0.024 45.457   25 -0.065   25 -0.090   20 -0.022   25 0.4854   22  0.341   22 -0.134   12  0.089   21 -0.083
PIRATES      38 58 324 378  0.054 49.458   26 -0.113   26 -0.121   23 -0.062   27 0.4802   30  0.070   28 -0.385    2  0.260   11  0.069
ATHLETICS    40 57 411 548  0.013 48.502   27 -0.114   27 -0.121   28 -0.167   26 0.4806    8  0.641   15 -0.007   28 -0.326    5  0.264
NATIONALS    38 57 416 511 -0.018 46.364   28 -0.171   28 -0.157   29 -0.178   28 0.4742    5  0.707   13  0.047   30 -0.403   18 -0.041
WHITE SOX    32 64 327 424  0.005 47.697   29 -0.242   29 -0.241   27 -0.165   29 0.4615   29  0.144   29 -0.434   11  0.103    9  0.131
ROCKIES      22 73 334 585  0.023 48.147   30 -0.401   30 -0.387   30 -0.397   30 0.4361   23  0.340   30 -0.509   27 -0.285    1  0.595

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      57 39 513 447 -0.028 46.056    4  0.124    4  0.121    8  0.081    5 0.5192    9  0.606    9  0.207   18 -0.045    4  0.317
PADRES       52 43 382 374 -0.001 46.725   10  0.048   10  0.069   16  0.017   10 0.5105   25  0.286   23 -0.140    4  0.174   19 -0.067
GIANTS       52 44 397 377 -0.025 46.316   13  0.026   13  0.046   17  0.015   12 0.5074   27  0.248   25 -0.173    3  0.202   16 -0.022
DIAMONDBACKS 46 50 488 487 -0.016 46.672   22 -0.019   22 -0.040   19  0.001   22 0.4932    3  0.718    7  0.237   26 -0.234   10  0.097
ROCKIES      22 73 334 585  0.023 48.147   30 -0.401   30 -0.387   30 -0.397   30 0.4361   23  0.340   30 -0.509   27 -0.285    1  0.595

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         56 39 508 392  0.011 46.958    2  0.155    2  0.138    1  0.180    2 0.5226   10  0.597    3  0.297   16  0.064   12  0.052
BREWERS      55 40 449 375 -0.013 46.122    6  0.100    6  0.106    4  0.109    6 0.5163    4  0.714    1  0.341   22 -0.123   30 -0.506
CARDINALS    50 46 439 423  0.024 48.151   14  0.025   14  0.044   14  0.041   14 0.5066    7  0.661    8  0.221   23 -0.138   25 -0.133
REDS         49 47 437 408 -0.009 46.901   16  0.006   16  0.010   15  0.029   18 0.5004   13  0.575   11  0.125   20 -0.067   24 -0.125
PIRATES      38 58 324 378  0.054 49.458   26 -0.113   26 -0.121   23 -0.062   27 0.4802   30  0.070   28 -0.385    2  0.260   11  0.069

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         55 41 424 378 -0.021 46.365    7  0.082    7  0.095   10  0.060    9 0.5136   20  0.360   19 -0.036    6  0.155   23 -0.099
PHILLIES     54 41 436 374 -0.028 45.584    8  0.071    8  0.085    7  0.093    8 0.5138   28  0.216   21 -0.120    1  0.305    2  0.413
MARLINS      43 51 397 462 -0.007 46.218   24 -0.043   24 -0.067   25 -0.106   24 0.4876    1  0.749   10  0.161   29 -0.373   27 -0.387
BRAVES       42 52 384 381 -0.024 45.457   25 -0.065   25 -0.090   20 -0.022   25 0.4854   22  0.341   22 -0.134   12  0.089   21 -0.083
NATIONALS    38 57 416 511 -0.018 46.364   28 -0.171   28 -0.157   29 -0.178   28 0.4742    5  0.707   13  0.047   30 -0.403   18 -0.041

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       56 39 417 357 -0.012 46.216    3  0.127    3  0.122    5  0.099    3 0.5208   17  0.397   14  0.034    5  0.163   14 -0.018
MARINERS     50 45 443 415  0.016 47.325   12  0.027   12  0.047   12  0.048   11 0.5086    2  0.736    2  0.301   25 -0.206   28 -0.482
ANGELS       47 48 417 475  0.013 47.387   18  0.000   18 -0.001   24 -0.078   17 0.5006   14  0.537   16 -0.018   24 -0.139    8  0.139
RANGERS      47 49 388 345 -0.007 46.954   20 -0.008   20 -0.019   13  0.046   20 0.4973   18  0.383   18 -0.031    9  0.122   29 -0.483
ATHLETICS    40 57 411 548  0.013 48.502   27 -0.114   27 -0.121   28 -0.167   26 0.4806    8  0.641   15 -0.007   28 -0.326    5  0.264

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 37 478 387 -0.021 46.307    1  0.182    1  0.156    3  0.149    1 0.5261   12  0.582    6  0.252   17  0.047   20 -0.075
TWINS        47 48 401 408  0.013 47.298   17  0.002   17  0.001   18  0.011   16 0.5008   21  0.359   20 -0.086   10  0.108    7  0.248
GUARDIANS    45 49 347 393  0.035 47.686   19 -0.004   19 -0.011   22 -0.057   19 0.4998   24  0.322   26 -0.184   15  0.071   22 -0.089
ROYALS       46 50 325 354  0.013 47.886   21 -0.011   21 -0.022   21 -0.053   21 0.4953   26  0.255   27 -0.236    8  0.129   26 -0.260
WHITE SOX    32 64 327 424  0.005 47.697   29 -0.242   29 -0.241   27 -0.165   29 0.4615   29  0.144   29 -0.434   11  0.103    9  0.131

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    55 40 437 417  0.012 47.181    5  0.124    5  0.121   11  0.055    4 0.5201   19  0.382   17 -0.022    7  0.132    6  0.264
YANKEES      53 42 500 386 -0.000 46.582    9  0.070    9  0.084    2  0.179    7 0.5162   11  0.586    4  0.286   14  0.073   17 -0.027
RED SOX      52 45 487 429 -0.003 47.537   11  0.031   11  0.051    9  0.080   13 0.5074    6  0.682    5  0.280   21 -0.120   13  0.007
RAYS         50 46 448 384  0.015 47.709   15  0.021   15  0.038    6  0.096   15 0.5063   15  0.495   12  0.119   13  0.073   15 -0.020
ORIOLES      43 51 392 472  0.020 47.201   23 -0.029   23 -0.050   26 -0.108   23 0.4912   16  0.407   24 -0.163   19 -0.052    3  0.320

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    253 224 0.530    1  0.089
NL CENTRAL 248 230 0.519    2  0.088
AL WEST    240 238 0.502    3 -0.015
AL CENTRAL 229 248 0.480    4 -0.034
NL EAST    232 242 0.489    5 -0.045
NL WEST    229 249 0.479    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.080 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jul 13 05:30:09 2025
games through: Sat Jul 12 2025

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