Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      21 10 167 132 -0.008 15.096    1  0.174    1  0.167    5  0.139    2 0.5410   17  0.435   13  0.128    9  0.149   10  0.223 P
TIGERS       20 12 155 109  0.074 16.616    2  0.156    2  0.146    2  0.193    5 0.5318   10  0.615    4  0.349   14  0.037   24 -0.305 P
CUBS         19 13 192 140  0.136 17.477    3  0.150    4  0.140    1  0.219    1 0.5423    3  0.767    1  0.525   19 -0.087    7  0.283 P
PADRES       19 11 118  90  0.055 15.353    4  0.142    3  0.143    6  0.138    3 0.5349   28  0.033   24 -0.191    1  0.467   21 -0.225 P
METS         21 11 150  98 -0.061 15.006    5  0.128    5  0.127    4  0.148    4 0.5325   24  0.242   17 -0.024    2  0.319   25 -0.308 P
GIANTS       19 13 145 123  0.098 17.109    6  0.124    6  0.125    7  0.111    6 0.5306   15  0.504   12  0.163   12  0.059   28 -0.341 P
MARINERS     18 12 152 129 -0.021 14.639    7  0.083    7  0.085   12  0.059    7 0.5252    6  0.688    6  0.285   22 -0.167   26 -0.330 P
YANKEES      18 13 177 125 -0.008 15.172    8  0.071    9  0.072    3  0.156    8 0.5213   12  0.570    7  0.268   13  0.044    5  0.346 P
DIAMONDBACKS 17 14 161 151  0.082 16.370    9  0.070    8  0.075    9  0.078    9 0.5181   13  0.558   10  0.180   16 -0.023   13  0.028 P
ASTROS       16 14 117 104  0.047 15.480   10  0.046   10  0.049   11  0.064   10 0.5131   21  0.281   20 -0.076    6  0.204   12  0.031 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     17 14 140 136 -0.002 15.443   11  0.045   11  0.048   14  0.009   11 0.5129   23  0.250   22 -0.157    7  0.175    4  0.355 P
GUARDIANS    18 13 118 142 -0.092 14.448   12  0.041   12  0.042   22 -0.105   12 0.5072    8  0.673   14  0.106   28 -0.316   27 -0.330 P
ATHLETICS    17 15 135 160  0.027 16.382   13  0.037   13  0.039   19 -0.028   14 0.5049    9  0.666   11  0.177   25 -0.233    6  0.287 P
BREWERS      16 16 159 143  0.080 16.869   14  0.035   14  0.028    8  0.103   17 0.5010    2  0.779    3  0.421   23 -0.216   30 -0.410 P
ROYALS       17 15 105 110 -0.028 15.692   15  0.021   15  0.019   20 -0.035   15 0.5022   29  0.003   26 -0.384    3  0.315   14  0.015 P
REDS         17 15 163 126 -0.045 15.280   16  0.014   17  0.012   10  0.072   16 0.5020   11  0.586    9  0.200   18 -0.055   20 -0.207 P
RANGERS      16 16 103 115  0.037 16.503   17  0.012   16  0.015   18 -0.023   13 0.5072   27  0.033   25 -0.352    4  0.305   23 -0.283 P
BRAVES       14 16 127 126  0.017 15.192   18 -0.022   18 -0.025   15 -0.001   19 0.4939   18  0.434   16 -0.013   15  0.010   17 -0.042 P
RED SOX      17 16 166 152 -0.119 14.893   19 -0.027   20 -0.033   17 -0.023   20 0.4911    5  0.703    8  0.218   26 -0.264    8  0.270 P
BLUE JAYS    15 16 108 140 -0.034 15.237   20 -0.031   19 -0.027   23 -0.108   18 0.4968   30 -0.088   30 -0.519    5  0.304    1  0.468 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    14 18 147 145  0.031 16.360   21 -0.053   21 -0.052   13  0.021   22 0.4833    4  0.766    5  0.326   27 -0.284   29 -0.399 P
MARLINS      12 18 135 186  0.032 15.622   22 -0.080   22 -0.081   26 -0.139   21 0.4841    1  1.008    2  0.428   30 -0.707   22 -0.231 P
RAYS         14 17 121 118 -0.108 14.218   23 -0.083   23 -0.085   21 -0.056   25 0.4769   16  0.441   19 -0.061   17 -0.050   18 -0.077 P
NATIONALS    14 18 135 166 -0.091 14.946   24 -0.093   25 -0.096   25 -0.135   23 0.4829   14  0.551   18 -0.040   24 -0.230    9  0.242 P
ORIOLES      12 18 120 169 -0.012 15.060   25 -0.096   26 -0.096   28 -0.160   24 0.4820   19  0.428   23 -0.176   21 -0.143    2  0.465 P
TWINS        13 19 123 119 -0.022 15.706   26 -0.099   27 -0.100   16 -0.011   27 0.4704   20  0.358   21 -0.087   11  0.066   16 -0.015 P
ANGELS       12 18 110 157 -0.001 15.194   27 -0.106   24 -0.094   29 -0.170   26 0.4736    7  0.676   15  0.045   29 -0.384   19 -0.092 P
PIRATES      12 20 109 147 -0.033 15.775   28 -0.140   28 -0.135   27 -0.153   28 0.4696   26  0.054   29 -0.467    8  0.160   11  0.159 P
WHITE SOX     8 23 109 133 -0.029 15.279   29 -0.241   29 -0.246   24 -0.123   29 0.4361   25  0.126   27 -0.385   10  0.138   15  0.003 P
ROCKIES       6 25 100 176  0.020 16.114   30 -0.277   30 -0.288   30 -0.272   30 0.4318   22  0.254   28 -0.435   20 -0.110    3  0.419 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      21 10 167 132 -0.008 15.096    1  0.174    1  0.167    5  0.139    2 0.5410   17  0.435   13  0.128    9  0.149   10  0.223 P
PADRES       19 11 118  90  0.055 15.353    4  0.142    3  0.143    6  0.138    3 0.5349   28  0.033   24 -0.191    1  0.467   21 -0.225 P
GIANTS       19 13 145 123  0.098 17.109    6  0.124    6  0.125    7  0.111    6 0.5306   15  0.504   12  0.163   12  0.059   28 -0.341 P
DIAMONDBACKS 17 14 161 151  0.082 16.370    9  0.070    8  0.075    9  0.078    9 0.5181   13  0.558   10  0.180   16 -0.023   13  0.028 P
ROCKIES       6 25 100 176  0.020 16.114   30 -0.277   30 -0.288   30 -0.272   30 0.4318   22  0.254   28 -0.435   20 -0.110    3  0.419 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         19 13 192 140  0.136 17.477    3  0.150    4  0.140    1  0.219    1 0.5423    3  0.767    1  0.525   19 -0.087    7  0.283 P
BREWERS      16 16 159 143  0.080 16.869   14  0.035   14  0.028    8  0.103   17 0.5010    2  0.779    3  0.421   23 -0.216   30 -0.410 P
REDS         17 15 163 126 -0.045 15.280   16  0.014   17  0.012   10  0.072   16 0.5020   11  0.586    9  0.200   18 -0.055   20 -0.207 P
CARDINALS    14 18 147 145  0.031 16.360   21 -0.053   21 -0.052   13  0.021   22 0.4833    4  0.766    5  0.326   27 -0.284   29 -0.399 P
PIRATES      12 20 109 147 -0.033 15.775   28 -0.140   28 -0.135   27 -0.153   28 0.4696   26  0.054   29 -0.467    8  0.160   11  0.159 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         21 11 150  98 -0.061 15.006    5  0.128    5  0.127    4  0.148    4 0.5325   24  0.242   17 -0.024    2  0.319   25 -0.308 P
PHILLIES     17 14 140 136 -0.002 15.443   11  0.045   11  0.048   14  0.009   11 0.5129   23  0.250   22 -0.157    7  0.175    4  0.355 P
BRAVES       14 16 127 126  0.017 15.192   18 -0.022   18 -0.025   15 -0.001   19 0.4939   18  0.434   16 -0.013   15  0.010   17 -0.042 P
MARLINS      12 18 135 186  0.032 15.622   22 -0.080   22 -0.081   26 -0.139   21 0.4841    1  1.008    2  0.428   30 -0.707   22 -0.231 P
NATIONALS    14 18 135 166 -0.091 14.946   24 -0.093   25 -0.096   25 -0.135   23 0.4829   14  0.551   18 -0.040   24 -0.230    9  0.242 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     18 12 152 129 -0.021 14.639    7  0.083    7  0.085   12  0.059    7 0.5252    6  0.688    6  0.285   22 -0.167   26 -0.330 P
ASTROS       16 14 117 104  0.047 15.480   10  0.046   10  0.049   11  0.064   10 0.5131   21  0.281   20 -0.076    6  0.204   12  0.031 P
ATHLETICS    17 15 135 160  0.027 16.382   13  0.037   13  0.039   19 -0.028   14 0.5049    9  0.666   11  0.177   25 -0.233    6  0.287 P
RANGERS      16 16 103 115  0.037 16.503   17  0.012   16  0.015   18 -0.023   13 0.5072   27  0.033   25 -0.352    4  0.305   23 -0.283 P
ANGELS       12 18 110 157 -0.001 15.194   27 -0.106   24 -0.094   29 -0.170   26 0.4736    7  0.676   15  0.045   29 -0.384   19 -0.092 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       20 12 155 109  0.074 16.616    2  0.156    2  0.146    2  0.193    5 0.5318   10  0.615    4  0.349   14  0.037   24 -0.305 P
GUARDIANS    18 13 118 142 -0.092 14.448   12  0.041   12  0.042   22 -0.105   12 0.5072    8  0.673   14  0.106   28 -0.316   27 -0.330 P
ROYALS       17 15 105 110 -0.028 15.692   15  0.021   15  0.019   20 -0.035   15 0.5022   29  0.003   26 -0.384    3  0.315   14  0.015 P
TWINS        13 19 123 119 -0.022 15.706   26 -0.099   27 -0.100   16 -0.011   27 0.4704   20  0.358   21 -0.087   11  0.066   16 -0.015 P
WHITE SOX     8 23 109 133 -0.029 15.279   29 -0.241   29 -0.246   24 -0.123   29 0.4361   25  0.126   27 -0.385   10  0.138   15  0.003 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      18 13 177 125 -0.008 15.172    8  0.071    9  0.072    3  0.156    8 0.5213   12  0.570    7  0.268   13  0.044    5  0.346 P
RED SOX      17 16 166 152 -0.119 14.893   19 -0.027   20 -0.033   17 -0.023   20 0.4911    5  0.703    8  0.218   26 -0.264    8  0.270 P
BLUE JAYS    15 16 108 140 -0.034 15.237   20 -0.031   19 -0.027   23 -0.108   18 0.4968   30 -0.088   30 -0.519    5  0.304    1  0.468 P
RAYS         14 17 121 118 -0.108 14.218   23 -0.083   23 -0.085   21 -0.056   25 0.4769   16  0.441   19 -0.061   17 -0.050   18 -0.077 P
ORIOLES      12 18 120 169 -0.012 15.060   25 -0.096   26 -0.096   28 -0.160   24 0.4820   19  0.428   23 -0.176   21 -0.143    2  0.465 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 78 82 0.487    1  0.105
NL WEST    82 73 0.529    2  0.085
AL CENTRAL 76 82 0.481    3 -0.033
AL WEST    79 75 0.513    4 -0.037
NL EAST    78 77 0.503    5 -0.047
AL EAST    76 80 0.487    6 -0.077

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.147 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri May  2 05:30:09 2025
games through: Thu May  1 2025

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