Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    14 16 104 138 -0.032 14.760   21 -0.038   21 -0.044   23 -0.122   19 0.4936   30 -0.088   30 -0.532    5  0.289    1  0.499 P
ORIOLES      12 18 120 169 -0.033 14.773   26 -0.113   26 -0.111   29 -0.179   24 0.4795   19  0.418   24 -0.203   21 -0.154    2  0.459 P
ROCKIES       5 25  96 173  0.005 15.408   30 -0.335   30 -0.336   30 -0.302   30 0.4237   24  0.235   29 -0.479   20 -0.125    3  0.419 P
PHILLIES     17 13 138 132  0.021 15.131    9  0.077    9  0.077   14  0.028    9 0.5185   22  0.256   22 -0.132    7  0.188    4  0.387 P
YANKEES      18 13 177 125 -0.005 15.157    8  0.078    8  0.078    4  0.165    8 0.5211   12  0.584    5  0.291   14  0.039    5  0.341 P
CUBS         18 13 184 137  0.138 16.940    6  0.137    6  0.134    1  0.216    3 0.5388    4  0.748    1  0.503   18 -0.071    6  0.297 P
ATHLETICS    16 15 132 160  0.016 15.717   15  0.022   15  0.021   20 -0.052   16 0.5001    7  0.698   11  0.184   26 -0.289    7  0.267 P
RED SOX      17 15 164 148 -0.128 14.267   18 -0.019   18 -0.023   18 -0.019   20 0.4936    5  0.732    8  0.253   27 -0.290    8  0.251 P
DODGERS      21 10 167 132 -0.012 14.995    1  0.178    1  0.177    5  0.143    2 0.5397   17  0.427   13  0.127    8  0.160    9  0.243 P
NATIONALS    13 18 131 164 -0.098 14.361   27 -0.122   27 -0.122   26 -0.155   26 0.4773   11  0.588   18 -0.025   25 -0.284   10  0.211 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      12 19 106 139 -0.037 15.176   28 -0.129   28 -0.130   25 -0.148   28 0.4719   26  0.071   27 -0.449    9  0.153   11  0.111 P
ROYALS       16 15  97 108 -0.039 15.086   17  0.003   17  0.001   21 -0.063   17 0.4974   29 -0.058   28 -0.454    3  0.328   12  0.061 P
ASTROS       16 14 117 104  0.052 15.488   11  0.054   11  0.054    9  0.069   10 0.5142   21  0.281   20 -0.071    6  0.209   13  0.040 P
DIAMONDBACKS 16 14 157 149  0.072 15.696   10  0.059   10  0.060   10  0.069   11 0.5124   13  0.566   12  0.178   17 -0.041   14  0.030 P
WHITE SOX     7 23 101 133 -0.039 14.659   29 -0.285   29 -0.286   28 -0.170   29 0.4309   25  0.109   26 -0.442   10  0.103   15 -0.001 P
TWINS        13 18 120 115 -0.034 15.019   25 -0.098   25 -0.097   17 -0.012   27 0.4721   20  0.377   21 -0.072   13  0.048   16 -0.016 P
BRAVES       14 16 127 126  0.024 15.227   19 -0.022   19 -0.025   15  0.001   18 0.4938   16  0.433   17 -0.010   15  0.013   17 -0.045 P
RAYS         14 16 119 110 -0.101 13.756   22 -0.066   22 -0.073   19 -0.034   23 0.4800   18  0.419   19 -0.058   16 -0.010   18 -0.101 P
ANGELS       12 17 106 147  0.005 14.712   23 -0.083   23 -0.082   27 -0.159   25 0.4788    9  0.672   15  0.052   29 -0.370   19 -0.178 P
REDS         16 15 154 125 -0.023 15.050   16  0.007   16  0.006   12  0.059   15 0.5019   10  0.594    9  0.195   19 -0.077   20 -0.221 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       19 11 118  90  0.046 15.210    4  0.149    4  0.149    6  0.140    5 0.5332   28  0.030   23 -0.189    1  0.470   21 -0.221 P
MARLINS      12 18 135 186  0.034 15.604   24 -0.087   24 -0.086   24 -0.146   22 0.4846    1  0.995    3  0.408   30 -0.699   22 -0.231 P
RANGERS      16 15 103 112  0.046 16.022   13  0.035   13  0.035   16 -0.006   12 0.5123   27  0.045   25 -0.325    4  0.314   23 -0.244 P
TIGERS       19 12 145 105  0.070 16.013    5  0.142    5  0.139    2  0.183    6 0.5281   14  0.563    6  0.289   12  0.077   24 -0.246 P
METS         21 10 148  94 -0.060 14.479    3  0.156    3  0.155    3  0.167    4 0.5371   23  0.236   16 -0.009    2  0.343   25 -0.290 P
MARINERS     18 12 152 129 -0.023 14.557    7  0.090    7  0.089   11  0.061    7 0.5259    8  0.682    7  0.282   22 -0.160   26 -0.319 P
GUARDIANS    17 13 114 139 -0.103 13.812   14  0.027   14  0.026   22 -0.122   14 0.5042    6  0.698   14  0.116   28 -0.359   27 -0.339 P
GIANTS       19 12 142 119  0.135 16.978    2  0.167    2  0.166    7  0.140    1 0.5404   15  0.505   10  0.193   11  0.087   28 -0.358 P
BREWERS      16 15 159 135  0.077 16.190   12  0.043   12  0.043    8  0.138   13 0.5054    2  0.780    2  0.458   23 -0.183   29 -0.403 P
CARDINALS    14 17 146 136  0.043 15.898   20 -0.030   20 -0.036   13  0.057   21 0.4888    3  0.764    4  0.361   24 -0.247   30 -0.406 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       5 25  96 173  0.005 15.408   30 -0.335   30 -0.336   30 -0.302   30 0.4237   24  0.235   29 -0.479   20 -0.125    3  0.419 P
DODGERS      21 10 167 132 -0.012 14.995    1  0.178    1  0.177    5  0.143    2 0.5397   17  0.427   13  0.127    8  0.160    9  0.243 P
DIAMONDBACKS 16 14 157 149  0.072 15.696   10  0.059   10  0.060   10  0.069   11 0.5124   13  0.566   12  0.178   17 -0.041   14  0.030 P
PADRES       19 11 118  90  0.046 15.210    4  0.149    4  0.149    6  0.140    5 0.5332   28  0.030   23 -0.189    1  0.470   21 -0.221 P
GIANTS       19 12 142 119  0.135 16.978    2  0.167    2  0.166    7  0.140    1 0.5404   15  0.505   10  0.193   11  0.087   28 -0.358 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         18 13 184 137  0.138 16.940    6  0.137    6  0.134    1  0.216    3 0.5388    4  0.748    1  0.503   18 -0.071    6  0.297 P
PIRATES      12 19 106 139 -0.037 15.176   28 -0.129   28 -0.130   25 -0.148   28 0.4719   26  0.071   27 -0.449    9  0.153   11  0.111 P
REDS         16 15 154 125 -0.023 15.050   16  0.007   16  0.006   12  0.059   15 0.5019   10  0.594    9  0.195   19 -0.077   20 -0.221 P
BREWERS      16 15 159 135  0.077 16.190   12  0.043   12  0.043    8  0.138   13 0.5054    2  0.780    2  0.458   23 -0.183   29 -0.403 P
CARDINALS    14 17 146 136  0.043 15.898   20 -0.030   20 -0.036   13  0.057   21 0.4888    3  0.764    4  0.361   24 -0.247   30 -0.406 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     17 13 138 132  0.021 15.131    9  0.077    9  0.077   14  0.028    9 0.5185   22  0.256   22 -0.132    7  0.188    4  0.387 P
NATIONALS    13 18 131 164 -0.098 14.361   27 -0.122   27 -0.122   26 -0.155   26 0.4773   11  0.588   18 -0.025   25 -0.284   10  0.211 P
BRAVES       14 16 127 126  0.024 15.227   19 -0.022   19 -0.025   15  0.001   18 0.4938   16  0.433   17 -0.010   15  0.013   17 -0.045 P
MARLINS      12 18 135 186  0.034 15.604   24 -0.087   24 -0.086   24 -0.146   22 0.4846    1  0.995    3  0.408   30 -0.699   22 -0.231 P
METS         21 10 148  94 -0.060 14.479    3  0.156    3  0.155    3  0.167    4 0.5371   23  0.236   16 -0.009    2  0.343   25 -0.290 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    16 15 132 160  0.016 15.717   15  0.022   15  0.021   20 -0.052   16 0.5001    7  0.698   11  0.184   26 -0.289    7  0.267 P
ASTROS       16 14 117 104  0.052 15.488   11  0.054   11  0.054    9  0.069   10 0.5142   21  0.281   20 -0.071    6  0.209   13  0.040 P
ANGELS       12 17 106 147  0.005 14.712   23 -0.083   23 -0.082   27 -0.159   25 0.4788    9  0.672   15  0.052   29 -0.370   19 -0.178 P
RANGERS      16 15 103 112  0.046 16.022   13  0.035   13  0.035   16 -0.006   12 0.5123   27  0.045   25 -0.325    4  0.314   23 -0.244 P
MARINERS     18 12 152 129 -0.023 14.557    7  0.090    7  0.089   11  0.061    7 0.5259    8  0.682    7  0.282   22 -0.160   26 -0.319 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       16 15  97 108 -0.039 15.086   17  0.003   17  0.001   21 -0.063   17 0.4974   29 -0.058   28 -0.454    3  0.328   12  0.061 P
WHITE SOX     7 23 101 133 -0.039 14.659   29 -0.285   29 -0.286   28 -0.170   29 0.4309   25  0.109   26 -0.442   10  0.103   15 -0.001 P
TWINS        13 18 120 115 -0.034 15.019   25 -0.098   25 -0.097   17 -0.012   27 0.4721   20  0.377   21 -0.072   13  0.048   16 -0.016 P
TIGERS       19 12 145 105  0.070 16.013    5  0.142    5  0.139    2  0.183    6 0.5281   14  0.563    6  0.289   12  0.077   24 -0.246 P
GUARDIANS    17 13 114 139 -0.103 13.812   14  0.027   14  0.026   22 -0.122   14 0.5042    6  0.698   14  0.116   28 -0.359   27 -0.339 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    14 16 104 138 -0.032 14.760   21 -0.038   21 -0.044   23 -0.122   19 0.4936   30 -0.088   30 -0.532    5  0.289    1  0.499 P
ORIOLES      12 18 120 169 -0.033 14.773   26 -0.113   26 -0.111   29 -0.179   24 0.4795   19  0.418   24 -0.203   21 -0.154    2  0.459 P
YANKEES      18 13 177 125 -0.005 15.157    8  0.078    8  0.078    4  0.165    8 0.5211   12  0.584    5  0.291   14  0.039    5  0.341 P
RED SOX      17 15 164 148 -0.128 14.267   18 -0.019   18 -0.023   18 -0.019   20 0.4936    5  0.732    8  0.253   27 -0.290    8  0.251 P
RAYS         14 16 119 110 -0.101 13.756   22 -0.066   22 -0.073   19 -0.034   23 0.4800   18  0.419   19 -0.058   16 -0.010   18 -0.101 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 76 79 0.490    1  0.124
NL WEST    80 72 0.526    2  0.081
AL WEST    78 73 0.517    3 -0.032
NL EAST    77 75 0.507    4 -0.038
AL CENTRAL 72 81 0.471    5 -0.070
AL EAST    75 78 0.490    6 -0.072

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.151 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.018 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May  1 05:30:05 2025
games through: Wed Apr 30 2025

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