Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS       61 39 434 403  0.071 52.457    1  0.871    1  0.173    3  0.118    1 0.5324  0.290 -0.085  0.320  0.215
BOSTON            59 43 511 418  0.087 54.080    2  0.793    3  0.144    1  0.184    3 0.5298  0.511  0.172  0.196  0.105
TAMPA BAY         58 41 450 409  0.087 52.539    3  0.790    2  0.150    4  0.117    2 0.5307  0.573  0.163  0.072 -0.281
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 56 43 490 409  0.063 51.578    4  0.666    4  0.114    2  0.139    4 0.5225  0.381  0.012  0.265  0.247
N.Y. YANKEES      55 45 469 423  0.060 52.000    5  0.594    6  0.093    6  0.102    6 0.5178  0.401 -0.007  0.212  0.170
MINNESOTA         55 45 490 471  0.063 52.183    6  0.593    5  0.094    9  0.075    5 0.5187  0.678  0.221 -0.072 -0.191
CHICAGO CUBS      58 42 520 418 -0.079 46.460    7  0.515    7  0.062    8  0.084    8 0.5121  0.424 -0.006  0.174  0.307
MILWAUKEE         57 43 474 443 -0.054 47.587    8  0.508    8  0.061   14  0.016    7 0.5127  0.566  0.054 -0.023 -0.147
OAKLAND           52 48 423 363  0.066 52.268    9  0.503   10  0.059    5  0.104   10 0.5110  0.296 -0.094  0.302 -0.175
TEXAS             52 49 549 590  0.080 53.493   10  0.495    9  0.059   15  0.013    9 0.5114  0.831  0.317 -0.291  0.385
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT           51 49 500 473  0.064 52.286   11  0.479   11  0.045   12  0.046   12 0.5078  0.557  0.076  0.016  0.251
TORONTO           49 51 426 404  0.096 53.516   12  0.471   12  0.036    7  0.085   11 0.5089  0.365 -0.055  0.226  0.012
ST. LOUIS         57 45 484 455 -0.094 46.933   13  0.464   13  0.027   17 -0.001   14 0.5062  0.585  0.056 -0.057 -0.150
BALTIMORE         48 51 476 484  0.085 52.619   14  0.461   14  0.024   13  0.029   13 0.5065  0.560  0.062 -0.004  0.202
PHILADELPHIA      54 46 500 423 -0.062 47.207   15  0.458   15  0.019   11  0.046   15 0.5034  0.560  0.080  0.013 -0.034
N.Y. METS         53 47 487 454 -0.068 47.032   16  0.447   16  0.004   16  0.003   16 0.4992  0.710  0.182 -0.175 -0.264
FLORIDA           53 47 480 505 -0.091 46.271   17  0.438   17 -0.008   23 -0.074   17 0.4968  0.872  0.274 -0.421 -0.272
KANSAS CITY       45 56 424 501  0.084 53.782   18  0.426   18 -0.026   20 -0.044   18 0.4956  0.508 -0.059 -0.029  0.021
CLEVELAND         44 55 450 439  0.064 51.739   19  0.422   19 -0.038   10  0.049   19 0.4932  0.536  0.060  0.038 -0.097
ARIZONA           50 50 446 434 -0.081 46.562   20  0.419   20 -0.041   19 -0.026   21 0.4906  0.281 -0.236  0.184  0.371
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CINCINNATI        49 53 449 498 -0.035 49.524   21  0.417   21 -0.042   24 -0.087   20 0.4911  0.665  0.047 -0.221 -0.220
L.A. DODGERS      49 51 423 415 -0.066 47.203   22  0.416   22 -0.046   21 -0.048   22 0.4902  0.568 -0.007 -0.089 -0.502
HOUSTON           46 54 425 486 -0.037 48.450   23  0.381   23 -0.069   25 -0.093   23 0.4881  0.428 -0.179 -0.007  0.170
PITTSBURGH        46 54 486 561 -0.037 48.480   24  0.377   24 -0.070   27 -0.123   24 0.4875  0.958  0.319 -0.565 -0.303
ATLANTA           47 53 440 416 -0.084 46.464   25  0.368   25 -0.079   18 -0.023   25 0.4846  0.197 -0.299  0.253  0.330
COLORADO          44 58 467 533 -0.055 48.716   26  0.248   26 -0.115   26 -0.116   27 0.4764  0.524 -0.115 -0.116  0.270
SEATTLE           38 62 392 462  0.063 52.455   27  0.231   27 -0.119   22 -0.065   26 0.4769  0.470 -0.114 -0.016 -0.130
SAN FRANCISCO     41 58 398 467 -0.052 47.417   28  0.178   28 -0.133   28 -0.130   28 0.4725  0.408 -0.234 -0.026  0.129
WASHINGTON        38 62 382 488 -0.055 47.819   29  0.027   29 -0.179   30 -0.197   29 0.4658  0.469 -0.246 -0.147 -0.082
SAN DIEGO         38 63 379 479 -0.074 47.560   30  0.000   30 -0.194   29 -0.180   30 0.4600  0.544 -0.162 -0.198 -0.338

NL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ARIZONA           50 50 446 434 -0.081 46.562   20  0.419   20 -0.041   19 -0.026   21 0.4906  0.281 -0.236  0.184  0.371
L.A. DODGERS      49 51 423 415 -0.066 47.203   22  0.416   22 -0.046   21 -0.048   22 0.4902  0.568 -0.007 -0.089 -0.502
COLORADO          44 58 467 533 -0.055 48.716   26  0.248   26 -0.115   26 -0.116   27 0.4764  0.524 -0.115 -0.116  0.270
SAN FRANCISCO     41 58 398 467 -0.052 47.417   28  0.178   28 -0.133   28 -0.130   28 0.4725  0.408 -0.234 -0.026  0.129
SAN DIEGO         38 63 379 479 -0.074 47.560   30  0.000   30 -0.194   29 -0.180   30 0.4600  0.544 -0.162 -0.198 -0.338

NL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO CUBS      58 42 520 418 -0.079 46.460    7  0.515    7  0.062    8  0.084    8 0.5121  0.424 -0.006  0.174  0.307
MILWAUKEE         57 43 474 443 -0.054 47.587    8  0.508    8  0.061   14  0.016    7 0.5127  0.566  0.054 -0.023 -0.147
ST. LOUIS         57 45 484 455 -0.094 46.933   13  0.464   13  0.027   17 -0.001   14 0.5062  0.585  0.056 -0.057 -0.150
CINCINNATI        49 53 449 498 -0.035 49.524   21  0.417   21 -0.042   24 -0.087   20 0.4911  0.665  0.047 -0.221 -0.220
HOUSTON           46 54 425 486 -0.037 48.450   23  0.381   23 -0.069   25 -0.093   23 0.4881  0.428 -0.179 -0.007  0.170
PITTSBURGH        46 54 486 561 -0.037 48.480   24  0.377   24 -0.070   27 -0.123   24 0.4875  0.958  0.319 -0.565 -0.303

NL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA      54 46 500 423 -0.062 47.207   15  0.458   15  0.019   11  0.046   15 0.5034  0.560  0.080  0.013 -0.034
N.Y. METS         53 47 487 454 -0.068 47.032   16  0.447   16  0.004   16  0.003   16 0.4992  0.710  0.182 -0.175 -0.264
FLORIDA           53 47 480 505 -0.091 46.271   17  0.438   17 -0.008   23 -0.074   17 0.4968  0.872  0.274 -0.421 -0.272
ATLANTA           47 53 440 416 -0.084 46.464   25  0.368   25 -0.079   18 -0.023   25 0.4846  0.197 -0.299  0.253  0.330
WASHINGTON        38 62 382 488 -0.055 47.819   29  0.027   29 -0.179   30 -0.197   29 0.4658  0.469 -0.246 -0.147 -0.082

AL WEST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. ANGELS       61 39 434 403  0.071 52.457    1  0.871    1  0.173    3  0.118    1 0.5324  0.290 -0.085  0.320  0.215
OAKLAND           52 48 423 363  0.066 52.268    9  0.503   10  0.059    5  0.104   10 0.5110  0.296 -0.094  0.302 -0.175
TEXAS             52 49 549 590  0.080 53.493   10  0.495    9  0.059   15  0.013    9 0.5114  0.831  0.317 -0.291  0.385
SEATTLE           38 62 392 462  0.063 52.455   27  0.231   27 -0.119   22 -0.065   26 0.4769  0.470 -0.114 -0.016 -0.130

AL CENTRAL
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 56 43 490 409  0.063 51.578    4  0.666    4  0.114    2  0.139    4 0.5225  0.381  0.012  0.265  0.247
MINNESOTA         55 45 490 471  0.063 52.183    6  0.593    5  0.094    9  0.075    5 0.5187  0.678  0.221 -0.072 -0.191
DETROIT           51 49 500 473  0.064 52.286   11  0.479   11  0.045   12  0.046   12 0.5078  0.557  0.076  0.016  0.251
KANSAS CITY       45 56 424 501  0.084 53.782   18  0.426   18 -0.026   20 -0.044   18 0.4956  0.508 -0.059 -0.029  0.021
CLEVELAND         44 55 450 439  0.064 51.739   19  0.422   19 -0.038   10  0.049   19 0.4932  0.536  0.060  0.038 -0.097

AL EAST
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM               W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON            59 43 511 418  0.087 54.080    2  0.793    3  0.144    1  0.184    3 0.5298  0.511  0.172  0.196  0.105
TAMPA BAY         58 41 450 409  0.087 52.539    3  0.790    2  0.150    4  0.117    2 0.5307  0.573  0.163  0.072 -0.281
N.Y. YANKEES      55 45 469 423  0.060 52.000    5  0.594    6  0.093    6  0.102    6 0.5178  0.401 -0.007  0.212  0.170
TORONTO           49 51 426 404  0.096 53.516   12  0.471   12  0.036    7  0.085   11 0.5089  0.365 -0.055  0.226  0.012
BALTIMORE         48 51 476 484  0.085 52.619   14  0.461   14  0.024   13  0.029   13 0.5065  0.560  0.062 -0.004  0.202

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    269 231 0.538    1  0.170
AL CENTRAL 251 248 0.503    2  0.087
AL WEST    203 198 0.506    3  0.070
NL CENTRAL 313 291 0.518    4 -0.056
NL EAST    245 255 0.490    5 -0.080
NL WEST    222 280 0.442    6 -0.164

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.129 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jul 23 18:08:29 2008
games through: Tue Jul 22 2008

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