Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      15  6  86  68  0.064 10.885    1  0.128    1  0.058    4  0.038    1 0.5543  0.548  0.164 -0.087 -0.765 P
BRAVES       13  7  76  52  0.104 10.667    2  0.116    2  0.045    1  0.051    2 0.5504 -0.125 -0.351  0.454  0.200 P
ATHLETICS    13  7  94  64 -0.039  9.472    3  0.105    3  0.032    2  0.047    3 0.5226  0.115 -0.189  0.282  0.028 P
CARDINALS    12  9  77  65  0.137 11.499    4  0.104    4  0.031    3  0.041    4 0.5224  0.094 -0.211  0.292  0.554 P
RANGERS      13  8  91  95 -0.051  9.972    5  0.101    5  0.025   13  0.003    5 0.5216  0.480  0.066 -0.061  0.073 P
YANKEES      12  8  84  87 -0.032  9.641    6  0.098    7  0.022   12  0.008    7 0.5203  0.634  0.215 -0.199 -0.230 P
NATIONALS    11 10  90  92  0.170 11.843    7  0.097    6  0.022    7  0.024    6 0.5207  0.889  0.492 -0.444 -0.474 P
TIGERS       10  7  71  70 -0.061  8.006    8  0.094    8  0.014   17 -0.001    8 0.5139  0.496  0.076 -0.078 -0.172 P
BLUE JAYS    11  9  87  77 -0.014  9.761    9  0.091    9  0.011    8  0.019    9 0.5121  0.210 -0.145  0.182  0.225 P
METS         10 10  79  87  0.089 10.665   10  0.090   10  0.009   16  0.000   12 0.5053  0.279 -0.109  0.109 -0.055 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILLIES     10 10  85  98  0.066 10.486   11  0.089   11  0.006   22 -0.008   10 0.5092  0.628  0.194 -0.209  0.028 P
RAYS         10 10  82  77  0.045 10.274   12  0.088   12  0.006   10  0.011   11 0.5081  0.236 -0.132  0.154  0.300 P
ROYALS       10  9  71  71 -0.048  9.058   13  0.086   13  0.002   19 -0.006   14 0.5017  0.077 -0.270  0.259 -0.071 P
ANGELS       10 10 108  88 -0.005  9.809   14  0.085   14  0.000    6  0.030   16 0.4971  0.663  0.265 -0.205  0.376 P
ORIOLES       9 10  81  86  0.031  9.677   15  0.084   15 -0.003   18 -0.002   13 0.5031  0.871  0.446 -0.451 -0.586 P
MARLINS      10 11  97  85  0.034 10.670   16  0.083   17 -0.004    9  0.018   18 0.4969  0.364 -0.021  0.056  0.234 P
ROCKIES      12 10 116  96 -0.138  9.636   17  0.082   16 -0.004   11  0.009   20 0.4938  0.610  0.193 -0.175  0.180 P
TWINS         9 10 101  98  0.035  9.698   18  0.081   18 -0.004   15  0.001   17 0.4971  0.875  0.454 -0.452  0.137 P
REDS          9 11  83  69  0.076 10.471   19  0.080   19 -0.004    5  0.035   22 0.4908  0.347 -0.018  0.088 -0.053 P
WHITE SOX    10 11 115 115 -0.018 10.279   20  0.078   20 -0.008   21 -0.007   19 0.4962  0.927  0.502 -0.515 -0.138 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PIRATES       9 12  87  88  0.102 11.306   21  0.077   21 -0.008   14  0.002   24 0.4904  0.740  0.314 -0.310 -0.271 P
INDIANS       9 11  83  95  0.017 10.108   22  0.076   22 -0.010   24 -0.016   21 0.4918  0.629  0.186 -0.218 -0.025 P
PADRES       10 11  58  65 -0.049 10.045   23  0.075   23 -0.011   25 -0.019   23 0.4904 -0.080 -0.392  0.354 -0.165 P
RED SOX       9 12  79  91  0.027 10.671   24  0.074   24 -0.013   20 -0.006   15 0.4998 -0.024 -0.342  0.329  0.447 P
DODGERS      10  9  73  70 -0.299  7.213   25  0.071   25 -0.020   27 -0.031   25 0.4793  0.156 -0.236  0.175  0.106 P
GIANTS       11 10  81  79 -0.265  8.289   26  0.070   26 -0.020   28 -0.038   26 0.4758  0.287 -0.140  0.064 -0.271 P
MARINERS      7 13  71  80  0.129 11.024   27  0.067   27 -0.023   23 -0.011   27 0.4736  0.259 -0.136  0.114 -0.198 P
CUBS          7 12  72  79 -0.015  9.405   28  0.062   28 -0.030   26 -0.024   29 0.4640 -0.041 -0.372  0.323  0.403 P
ASTROS        7 14  64  97  0.072 11.171   29  0.059   29 -0.035   29 -0.051   28 0.4678  0.313 -0.132  0.030 -0.038 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5 16  75 133 -0.160  9.313   30  0.000   30 -0.078   30 -0.112   30 0.4254  0.767  0.227 -0.451  0.213 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKIES      12 10 116  96 -0.138  9.636   17  0.082   16 -0.004   11  0.009   20 0.4938  0.610  0.193 -0.175  0.180 P
PADRES       10 11  58  65 -0.049 10.045   23  0.075   23 -0.011   25 -0.019   23 0.4904 -0.080 -0.392  0.354 -0.165 P
DODGERS      10  9  73  70 -0.299  7.213   25  0.071   25 -0.020   27 -0.031   25 0.4793  0.156 -0.236  0.175  0.106 P
GIANTS       11 10  81  79 -0.265  8.289   26  0.070   26 -0.020   28 -0.038   26 0.4758  0.287 -0.140  0.064 -0.271 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5 16  75 133 -0.160  9.313   30  0.000   30 -0.078   30 -0.112   30 0.4254  0.767  0.227 -0.451  0.213 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      15  6  86  68  0.064 10.885    1  0.128    1  0.058    4  0.038    1 0.5543  0.548  0.164 -0.087 -0.765 P
CARDINALS    12  9  77  65  0.137 11.499    4  0.104    4  0.031    3  0.041    4 0.5224  0.094 -0.211  0.292  0.554 P
REDS          9 11  83  69  0.076 10.471   19  0.080   19 -0.004    5  0.035   22 0.4908  0.347 -0.018  0.088 -0.053 P
PIRATES       9 12  87  88  0.102 11.306   21  0.077   21 -0.008   14  0.002   24 0.4904  0.740  0.314 -0.310 -0.271 P
CUBS          7 12  72  79 -0.015  9.405   28  0.062   28 -0.030   26 -0.024   29 0.4640 -0.041 -0.372  0.323  0.403 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       13  7  76  52  0.104 10.667    2  0.116    2  0.045    1  0.051    2 0.5504 -0.125 -0.351  0.454  0.200 P
NATIONALS    11 10  90  92  0.170 11.843    7  0.097    6  0.022    7  0.024    6 0.5207  0.889  0.492 -0.444 -0.474 P
METS         10 10  79  87  0.089 10.665   10  0.090   10  0.009   16  0.000   12 0.5053  0.279 -0.109  0.109 -0.055 P
PHILLIES     10 10  85  98  0.066 10.486   11  0.089   11  0.006   22 -0.008   10 0.5092  0.628  0.194 -0.209  0.028 P
MARLINS      10 11  97  85  0.034 10.670   16  0.083   17 -0.004    9  0.018   18 0.4969  0.364 -0.021  0.056  0.234 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    13  7  94  64 -0.039  9.472    3  0.105    3  0.032    2  0.047    3 0.5226  0.115 -0.189  0.282  0.028 P
RANGERS      13  8  91  95 -0.051  9.972    5  0.101    5  0.025   13  0.003    5 0.5216  0.480  0.066 -0.061  0.073 P
ANGELS       10 10 108  88 -0.005  9.809   14  0.085   14  0.000    6  0.030   16 0.4971  0.663  0.265 -0.205  0.376 P
MARINERS      7 13  71  80  0.129 11.024   27  0.067   27 -0.023   23 -0.011   27 0.4736  0.259 -0.136  0.114 -0.198 P
ASTROS        7 14  64  97  0.072 11.171   29  0.059   29 -0.035   29 -0.051   28 0.4678  0.313 -0.132  0.030 -0.038 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIGERS       10  7  71  70 -0.061  8.006    8  0.094    8  0.014   17 -0.001    8 0.5139  0.496  0.076 -0.078 -0.172 P
ROYALS       10  9  71  71 -0.048  9.058   13  0.086   13  0.002   19 -0.006   14 0.5017  0.077 -0.270  0.259 -0.071 P
TWINS         9 10 101  98  0.035  9.698   18  0.081   18 -0.004   15  0.001   17 0.4971  0.875  0.454 -0.452  0.137 P
WHITE SOX    10 11 115 115 -0.018 10.279   20  0.078   20 -0.008   21 -0.007   19 0.4962  0.927  0.502 -0.515 -0.138 P
INDIANS       9 11  83  95  0.017 10.108   22  0.076   22 -0.010   24 -0.016   21 0.4918  0.629  0.186 -0.218 -0.025 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      12  8  84  87 -0.032  9.641    6  0.098    7  0.022   12  0.008    7 0.5203  0.634  0.215 -0.199 -0.230 P
BLUE JAYS    11  9  87  77 -0.014  9.761    9  0.091    9  0.011    8  0.019    9 0.5121  0.210 -0.145  0.182  0.225 P
RAYS         10 10  82  77  0.045 10.274   12  0.088   12  0.006   10  0.011   11 0.5081  0.236 -0.132  0.154  0.300 P
ORIOLES       9 10  81  86  0.031  9.677   15  0.084   15 -0.003   18 -0.002   13 0.5031  0.871  0.446 -0.451 -0.586 P
RED SOX       9 12  79  91  0.027 10.671   24  0.074   24 -0.013   20 -0.006   15 0.4998 -0.024 -0.342  0.329  0.447 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 52 50 0.510    1  0.108
NL EAST    54 48 0.529    2  0.102
AL EAST    51 49 0.510    3  0.034
AL WEST    50 52 0.490    4  0.022
AL CENTRAL 48 48 0.500    5 -0.035
NL WEST    48 56 0.462    6 -0.227

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Apr 23 05:30:11 2014
games through: Tue Apr 22 2014

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