Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      25 16 232 177  0.129 22.208    1  0.353    2  0.097    1  0.132    2 0.5384  0.586  0.196  0.068  0.263
ASTROS       29 15 220 166 -0.012 21.294    2  0.350    1  0.098    2  0.096    1 0.5399  0.600  0.173  0.019 -0.337
ORIOLES      25 17 197 185  0.120 22.687    3  0.320    3  0.088    5  0.067    3 0.5329  0.693  0.235 -0.101 -0.623
ROCKIES      28 17 225 208 -0.015 21.883    4  0.288    4  0.075   12  0.030    4 0.5280  0.376 -0.094  0.155  0.502
INDIANS      23 19 184 168  0.079 22.006    5  0.242    5  0.049    6  0.053    5 0.5240  0.335 -0.106  0.212  0.145
NATIONALS    26 17 246 205 -0.094 19.540    6  0.233    6  0.042   14  0.024   14 0.5070  0.820  0.322 -0.274 -0.065
BREWERS      25 19 233 206 -0.016 21.356    7  0.229    7  0.040    7  0.047    8 0.5109  0.435 -0.027  0.121  0.414
CUBS         22 20 213 197  0.075 21.957    8  0.223    8  0.033    9  0.040   13 0.5080  0.571  0.090 -0.010  0.208
RED SOX      22 21 196 188  0.097 22.863    9  0.221    9  0.032    8  0.043    7 0.5152  0.584  0.105 -0.019 -0.174
TWINS        22 18 177 183 -0.005 19.657   10  0.217   10  0.029   16  0.012    6 0.5185  0.457 -0.043  0.066  0.186
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAYS         23 23 216 195  0.107 24.550   11  0.214   11  0.028    4  0.071   12 0.5091  0.513  0.067  0.074 -0.000
CARDINALS    22 19 186 169  0.003 20.208   12  0.210   12  0.023   10  0.038   17 0.5036  0.503  0.025  0.051 -0.369
DODGERS      26 19 228 164 -0.114 19.957   13  0.208   14  0.021    3  0.071   11 0.5092  0.376 -0.054  0.195  0.230
DIAMONDBACKS 26 19 226 179 -0.111 20.114   14  0.206   13  0.022   11  0.033   10 0.5100  0.227 -0.215  0.280  0.508
TIGERS       21 21 206 215  0.049 21.581   15  0.196   15  0.013   19 -0.003    9 0.5106  0.719  0.191 -0.197 -0.073
RANGERS      24 21 215 190 -0.089 20.571   16  0.187   16 -0.000   17  0.010   15 0.5060  0.544  0.035 -0.014  0.072
WHITE SOX    20 22 193 171  0.025 21.116   17  0.180   17 -0.008   13  0.028   16 0.5051  0.424 -0.056  0.111  0.153
ANGELS       23 23 192 199 -0.034 22.135   18  0.179   18 -0.008   20 -0.028   18 0.5019  0.291 -0.224  0.168  0.135
REDS         20 23 218 221  0.001 21.238   19  0.168   20 -0.021   18  0.006   22 0.4907  0.792  0.275 -0.262  0.080
PIRATES      20 24 167 199  0.048 22.668   20  0.167   19 -0.016   22 -0.035   24 0.4869  0.232 -0.278  0.208  0.120
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUE JAYS    19 26 186 202  0.110 24.211   21  0.162   21 -0.021   15  0.019   21 0.4921  0.546  0.045 -0.007 -0.279
ATHLETICS    20 24 176 219 -0.004 21.793   22  0.154   22 -0.029   25 -0.073   19 0.4956  0.505 -0.084 -0.061  0.045
ROYALS       18 25 145 190  0.064 22.466   23  0.150   23 -0.033   24 -0.050   20 0.4929  0.360 -0.189  0.089 -0.275
MARINERS     20 25 206 226 -0.006 22.189   24  0.147   24 -0.036   21 -0.029   23 0.4897  0.694  0.140 -0.198 -0.026
GIANTS       19 26 154 217 -0.005 22.393   25  0.130   25 -0.050   28 -0.106   25 0.4799  0.514 -0.109 -0.103 -0.490
BRAVES       18 23 188 211 -0.103 18.709   26  0.113   26 -0.060   26 -0.077   26 0.4672  0.633  0.032 -0.187 -0.069
METS         18 24 210 237 -0.160 18.226   27  0.072   27 -0.082   27 -0.095   29 0.4580  0.954  0.349 -0.539 -0.438
PHILLIES     15 26 183 202 -0.024 19.959   28  0.071   28 -0.085   23 -0.050   28 0.4595  0.289 -0.247  0.148  0.303
PADRES       16 30 158 243 -0.021 22.651   29  0.023   29 -0.103   30 -0.142   27 0.4620  0.457 -0.197 -0.088 -0.001
MARLINS      15 28 178 222 -0.080 20.092   30  0.000   30 -0.113   29 -0.108   30 0.4484  0.544 -0.084 -0.133 -0.153

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKIES      28 17 225 208 -0.015 21.883    4  0.288    4  0.075   12  0.030    4 0.5280  0.376 -0.094  0.155  0.502
DODGERS      26 19 228 164 -0.114 19.957   13  0.208   14  0.021    3  0.071   11 0.5092  0.376 -0.054  0.195  0.230
DIAMONDBACKS 26 19 226 179 -0.111 20.114   14  0.206   13  0.022   11  0.033   10 0.5100  0.227 -0.215  0.280  0.508
GIANTS       19 26 154 217 -0.005 22.393   25  0.130   25 -0.050   28 -0.106   25 0.4799  0.514 -0.109 -0.103 -0.490
PADRES       16 30 158 243 -0.021 22.651   29  0.023   29 -0.103   30 -0.142   27 0.4620  0.457 -0.197 -0.088 -0.001

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      25 19 233 206 -0.016 21.356    7  0.229    7  0.040    7  0.047    8 0.5109  0.435 -0.027  0.121  0.414
CUBS         22 20 213 197  0.075 21.957    8  0.223    8  0.033    9  0.040   13 0.5080  0.571  0.090 -0.010  0.208
CARDINALS    22 19 186 169  0.003 20.208   12  0.210   12  0.023   10  0.038   17 0.5036  0.503  0.025  0.051 -0.369
REDS         20 23 218 221  0.001 21.238   19  0.168   20 -0.021   18  0.006   22 0.4907  0.792  0.275 -0.262  0.080
PIRATES      20 24 167 199  0.048 22.668   20  0.167   19 -0.016   22 -0.035   24 0.4869  0.232 -0.278  0.208  0.120

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    26 17 246 205 -0.094 19.540    6  0.233    6  0.042   14  0.024   14 0.5070  0.820  0.322 -0.274 -0.065
BRAVES       18 23 188 211 -0.103 18.709   26  0.113   26 -0.060   26 -0.077   26 0.4672  0.633  0.032 -0.187 -0.069
METS         18 24 210 237 -0.160 18.226   27  0.072   27 -0.082   27 -0.095   29 0.4580  0.954  0.349 -0.539 -0.438
PHILLIES     15 26 183 202 -0.024 19.959   28  0.071   28 -0.085   23 -0.050   28 0.4595  0.289 -0.247  0.148  0.303
MARLINS      15 28 178 222 -0.080 20.092   30  0.000   30 -0.113   29 -0.108   30 0.4484  0.544 -0.084 -0.133 -0.153

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       29 15 220 166 -0.012 21.294    2  0.350    1  0.098    2  0.096    1 0.5399  0.600  0.173  0.019 -0.337
RANGERS      24 21 215 190 -0.089 20.571   16  0.187   16 -0.000   17  0.010   15 0.5060  0.544  0.035 -0.014  0.072
ANGELS       23 23 192 199 -0.034 22.135   18  0.179   18 -0.008   20 -0.028   18 0.5019  0.291 -0.224  0.168  0.135
ATHLETICS    20 24 176 219 -0.004 21.793   22  0.154   22 -0.029   25 -0.073   19 0.4956  0.505 -0.084 -0.061  0.045
MARINERS     20 25 206 226 -0.006 22.189   24  0.147   24 -0.036   21 -0.029   23 0.4897  0.694  0.140 -0.198 -0.026

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      23 19 184 168  0.079 22.006    5  0.242    5  0.049    6  0.053    5 0.5240  0.335 -0.106  0.212  0.145
TWINS        22 18 177 183 -0.005 19.657   10  0.217   10  0.029   16  0.012    6 0.5185  0.457 -0.043  0.066  0.186
TIGERS       21 21 206 215  0.049 21.581   15  0.196   15  0.013   19 -0.003    9 0.5106  0.719  0.191 -0.197 -0.073
WHITE SOX    20 22 193 171  0.025 21.116   17  0.180   17 -0.008   13  0.028   16 0.5051  0.424 -0.056  0.111  0.153
ROYALS       18 25 145 190  0.064 22.466   23  0.150   23 -0.033   24 -0.050   20 0.4929  0.360 -0.189  0.089 -0.275

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      25 16 232 177  0.129 22.208    1  0.353    2  0.097    1  0.132    2 0.5384  0.586  0.196  0.068  0.263
ORIOLES      25 17 197 185  0.120 22.687    3  0.320    3  0.088    5  0.067    3 0.5329  0.693  0.235 -0.101 -0.623
RED SOX      22 21 196 188  0.097 22.863    9  0.221    9  0.032    8  0.043    7 0.5152  0.584  0.105 -0.019 -0.174
RAYS         23 23 216 195  0.107 24.550   11  0.214   11  0.028    4  0.071   12 0.5091  0.513  0.067  0.074 -0.000
BLUE JAYS    19 26 186 202  0.110 24.211   21  0.162   21 -0.021   15  0.019   21 0.4921  0.546  0.045 -0.007 -0.279

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    114 103 0.525    1  0.195
NL CENTRAL 109 105 0.509    2  0.056
AL CENTRAL 104 105 0.498    3  0.023
AL WEST    116 108 0.518    4 -0.016
NL WEST    115 111 0.509    5 -0.065
NL EAST     92 118 0.438    6 -0.187

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.083 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon May 22 05:30:17 2017
games through: Sun May 21 2017

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