Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       52 25 424 305  0.049 39.887    1  0.975    1  0.242    1  0.251    1 0.5510  0.780  0.482  0.019 -0.497
DODGERS      51 27 406 272 -0.059 36.950    2  0.849    2  0.163    2  0.201    2 0.5286  0.383  0.057  0.346 -0.002
DIAMONDBACKS 49 28 406 292 -0.072 36.138    3  0.758    3  0.134    4  0.143    3 0.5245  0.270 -0.095  0.381  0.461
ROCKIES      47 32 404 368 -0.014 39.085    4  0.676    4  0.112    8  0.063    4 0.5199  0.437 -0.034  0.160  0.547
YANKEES      41 33 414 318  0.012 37.357    5  0.573    5  0.072    3  0.166    5 0.5183  0.579  0.198  0.134  0.156
RED SOX      42 34 354 321  0.004 38.218    6  0.550    6  0.067   10  0.053    7 0.5160  0.469 -0.016  0.122 -0.090
INDIANS      40 35 360 309  0.048 38.984    7  0.544    7  0.065    5  0.108    6 0.5174  0.366 -0.050  0.267  0.190
NATIONALS    45 31 428 341 -0.111 34.683    8  0.535    8  0.059    7  0.069   11 0.5086  0.740  0.259 -0.121 -0.096
TWINS        39 35 339 380  0.037 38.284    9  0.520   10  0.050   14 -0.012    9 0.5126  0.467 -0.083  0.059  0.372
ANGELS       41 39 349 342  0.068 42.299   10  0.519    9  0.050   11  0.043    8 0.5127  0.379 -0.104  0.191  0.030
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MARINERS     39 39 382 383  0.068 41.262   11  0.497   11  0.033   12  0.041   10 0.5095  0.660  0.151 -0.069 -0.075
RAYS         40 38 383 362  0.036 40.234   12  0.496   12  0.033    9  0.055   13 0.5084  0.580  0.088  0.022 -0.034
RANGERS      38 38 384 361  0.053 39.629   13  0.489   15  0.026    6  0.076   12 0.5086  0.619  0.146  0.005  0.144
ROYALS       37 37 292 330  0.056 38.889   14  0.485   13  0.028   20 -0.028   14 0.5083  0.396 -0.161  0.106 -0.100
ORIOLES      37 38 344 409  0.075 40.000   15  0.482   14  0.027   23 -0.066   15 0.5054  0.813  0.200 -0.333 -0.280
BREWERS      41 37 371 358 -0.076 36.805   16  0.448   16 -0.007   17 -0.015   18 0.4957  0.433 -0.116  0.086  0.261
BLUE JAYS    36 39 324 346  0.035 38.756   17  0.446   17 -0.008   16 -0.014   17 0.4995  0.439 -0.110  0.081 -0.025
ATHLETICS    34 42 331 403  0.113 41.661   18  0.441   18 -0.011   21 -0.045   16 0.4998  0.489 -0.096  0.006  0.196
CUBS         39 37 355 330 -0.056 36.476   19  0.440   19 -0.012   15 -0.013   20 0.4937  0.507 -0.048  0.021  0.022
TIGERS       33 42 357 379  0.065 39.664   20  0.403   20 -0.042   18 -0.020   19 0.4953  0.647  0.078 -0.118  0.070
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PIRATES      35 41 324 357 -0.025 37.509   21  0.373   21 -0.062   24 -0.079   22 0.4841  0.495 -0.125 -0.033 -0.103
CARDINALS    35 40 330 337 -0.050 36.228   22  0.372   22 -0.065   19 -0.027   24 0.4828  0.545 -0.027 -0.026 -0.286
MARLINS      34 40 341 359 -0.042 36.001   23  0.358   23 -0.070   22 -0.055   23 0.4841  0.669  0.065 -0.174 -0.196
WHITE SOX    32 43 342 347  0.035 38.732   24  0.352   24 -0.073   13 -0.006   21 0.4910  0.461 -0.082  0.070  0.124
BRAVES       36 39 352 386 -0.119 34.267   25  0.330   25 -0.083   27 -0.139   25 0.4792  0.713  0.024 -0.301 -0.136
METS         34 41 366 403 -0.088 35.178   26  0.302   26 -0.101   26 -0.100   27 0.4771  0.890  0.248 -0.449 -0.344
PADRES       31 45 274 388  0.018 39.022   27  0.285   27 -0.105   28 -0.176   26 0.4788  0.368 -0.333 -0.019  0.042
REDS         31 44 365 413 -0.054 36.175   28  0.209   28 -0.133   25 -0.096   28 0.4700  0.847  0.206 -0.397 -0.045
GIANTS       28 51 302 402 -0.010 39.706   29  0.057   29 -0.187   29 -0.196   29 0.4637  0.607 -0.138 -0.254 -0.484
PHILLIES     24 51 285 387 -0.008 37.729   30  0.000   30 -0.227   30 -0.202   30 0.4522  0.318 -0.401 -0.003  0.176

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      51 27 406 272 -0.059 36.950    2  0.849    2  0.163    2  0.201    2 0.5286  0.383  0.057  0.346 -0.002
DIAMONDBACKS 49 28 406 292 -0.072 36.138    3  0.758    3  0.134    4  0.143    3 0.5245  0.270 -0.095  0.381  0.461
ROCKIES      47 32 404 368 -0.014 39.085    4  0.676    4  0.112    8  0.063    4 0.5199  0.437 -0.034  0.160  0.547
PADRES       31 45 274 388  0.018 39.022   27  0.285   27 -0.105   28 -0.176   26 0.4788  0.368 -0.333 -0.019  0.042
GIANTS       28 51 302 402 -0.010 39.706   29  0.057   29 -0.187   29 -0.196   29 0.4637  0.607 -0.138 -0.254 -0.484

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      41 37 371 358 -0.076 36.805   16  0.448   16 -0.007   17 -0.015   18 0.4957  0.433 -0.116  0.086  0.261
CUBS         39 37 355 330 -0.056 36.476   19  0.440   19 -0.012   15 -0.013   20 0.4937  0.507 -0.048  0.021  0.022
PIRATES      35 41 324 357 -0.025 37.509   21  0.373   21 -0.062   24 -0.079   22 0.4841  0.495 -0.125 -0.033 -0.103
CARDINALS    35 40 330 337 -0.050 36.228   22  0.372   22 -0.065   19 -0.027   24 0.4828  0.545 -0.027 -0.026 -0.286
REDS         31 44 365 413 -0.054 36.175   28  0.209   28 -0.133   25 -0.096   28 0.4700  0.847  0.206 -0.397 -0.045

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    45 31 428 341 -0.111 34.683    8  0.535    8  0.059    7  0.069   11 0.5086  0.740  0.259 -0.121 -0.096
MARLINS      34 40 341 359 -0.042 36.001   23  0.358   23 -0.070   22 -0.055   23 0.4841  0.669  0.065 -0.174 -0.196
BRAVES       36 39 352 386 -0.119 34.267   25  0.330   25 -0.083   27 -0.139   25 0.4792  0.713  0.024 -0.301 -0.136
METS         34 41 366 403 -0.088 35.178   26  0.302   26 -0.101   26 -0.100   27 0.4771  0.890  0.248 -0.449 -0.344
PHILLIES     24 51 285 387 -0.008 37.729   30  0.000   30 -0.227   30 -0.202   30 0.4522  0.318 -0.401 -0.003  0.176

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       52 25 424 305  0.049 39.887    1  0.975    1  0.242    1  0.251    1 0.5510  0.780  0.482  0.019 -0.497
ANGELS       41 39 349 342  0.068 42.299   10  0.519    9  0.050   11  0.043    8 0.5127  0.379 -0.104  0.191  0.030
MARINERS     39 39 382 383  0.068 41.262   11  0.497   11  0.033   12  0.041   10 0.5095  0.660  0.151 -0.069 -0.075
RANGERS      38 38 384 361  0.053 39.629   13  0.489   15  0.026    6  0.076   12 0.5086  0.619  0.146  0.005  0.144
ATHLETICS    34 42 331 403  0.113 41.661   18  0.441   18 -0.011   21 -0.045   16 0.4998  0.489 -0.096  0.006  0.196

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      40 35 360 309  0.048 38.984    7  0.544    7  0.065    5  0.108    6 0.5174  0.366 -0.050  0.267  0.190
TWINS        39 35 339 380  0.037 38.284    9  0.520   10  0.050   14 -0.012    9 0.5126  0.467 -0.083  0.059  0.372
ROYALS       37 37 292 330  0.056 38.889   14  0.485   13  0.028   20 -0.028   14 0.5083  0.396 -0.161  0.106 -0.100
TIGERS       33 42 357 379  0.065 39.664   20  0.403   20 -0.042   18 -0.020   19 0.4953  0.647  0.078 -0.118  0.070
WHITE SOX    32 43 342 347  0.035 38.732   24  0.352   24 -0.073   13 -0.006   21 0.4910  0.461 -0.082  0.070  0.124

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      41 33 414 318  0.012 37.357    5  0.573    5  0.072    3  0.166    5 0.5183  0.579  0.198  0.134  0.156
RED SOX      42 34 354 321  0.004 38.218    6  0.550    6  0.067   10  0.053    7 0.5160  0.469 -0.016  0.122 -0.090
RAYS         40 38 383 362  0.036 40.234   12  0.496   12  0.033    9  0.055   13 0.5084  0.580  0.088  0.022 -0.034
ORIOLES      37 38 344 409  0.075 40.000   15  0.482   14  0.027   23 -0.066   15 0.5054  0.813  0.200 -0.333 -0.280
BLUE JAYS    36 39 324 346  0.035 38.756   17  0.446   17 -0.008   16 -0.014   17 0.4995  0.439 -0.110  0.081 -0.025

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    204 183 0.527    1  0.121
AL EAST    196 182 0.519    2  0.065
AL CENTRAL 181 192 0.485    3  0.015
NL WEST    206 183 0.530    4  0.013
NL CENTRAL 181 199 0.476    5 -0.076
NL EAST    173 202 0.461    6 -0.143

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.084 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jun 27 05:30:18 2017
games through: Mon Jun 26 2017

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.