Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      85 35 659 446 -0.051 56.510    1  1.433    1  0.342    1  0.290    1 0.5443  0.489  0.290  0.289  0.098
YANKEES      74 44 613 476 -0.016 57.326    2  1.258    2  0.214    3  0.217    2 0.5274  0.410  0.147  0.287  0.239
ASTROS       73 46 582 387 -0.009 58.128    3  1.240    3  0.197    2  0.287    3 0.5273  0.281  0.110  0.464 -0.034
ATHLETICS    71 48 568 502  0.000 58.827    4  1.162    4  0.174    9  0.105    4 0.5228  0.666  0.272 -0.062 -0.438
MARINERS     69 51 505 528  0.004 59.771    5  1.055    5  0.137   19 -0.012    6 0.5176  0.596  0.087 -0.112 -0.400
CUBS         68 49 576 483 -0.010 57.431    6  1.053    6  0.137    7  0.123    5 0.5194  0.409  0.053  0.194  0.269
BRAVES       66 51 568 478  0.000 57.867    7  0.980    7  0.114    5  0.134    7 0.5161  0.550  0.190  0.078 -0.106
PHILLIES     65 52 506 477  0.011 58.474    8  0.942    8  0.106   11  0.064    8 0.5150  0.398 -0.015  0.144  0.018
BREWERS      67 54 533 507  0.003 60.111    9  0.912    9  0.097   13  0.043   11 0.5134  0.385 -0.049  0.134  0.069
DIAMONDBACKS 65 55 536 466  0.023 60.515   10  0.904   10  0.091    6  0.126    9 0.5140  0.339 -0.004  0.256  0.101
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      64 56 562 469  0.034 61.036   11  0.892   11  0.084    4  0.155   10 0.5136  0.464  0.133  0.177 -0.067
ROCKIES      63 55 551 568  0.031 59.980   12  0.859   12  0.081   15  0.024   12 0.5128  0.472  0.009  0.039  0.365
INDIANS      67 51 604 481 -0.083 54.388   13  0.823   13  0.063    8  0.123   15 0.5063  0.341 -0.006  0.251  0.363
CARDINALS    64 55 542 496 -0.019 58.081   14  0.802   14  0.053   12  0.048   13 0.5082  0.521  0.078  0.018 -0.149
GIANTS       60 60 487 521  0.059 62.369   15  0.782   15  0.041   17  0.004   14 0.5074  0.308 -0.151  0.160  0.191
PIRATES      61 58 544 538  0.001 59.043   16  0.764   16  0.023   16  0.020   16 0.5037  0.612  0.135 -0.095 -0.114
NATIONALS    60 59 547 478  0.010 59.435   17  0.760   17  0.016   10  0.075   17 0.5026  0.402 -0.001  0.152  0.129
ANGELS       60 60 548 512  0.001 59.546   18  0.747   18  0.001   14  0.029   18 0.5008  0.487  0.028  0.030  0.030
RAYS         60 58 495 484 -0.019 57.624   19  0.746   19  0.001   18  0.001   19 0.4994  0.496  0.008 -0.006 -0.288
BLUE JAYS    53 65 523 597  0.014 59.494   20  0.629   20 -0.080   25 -0.121   20 0.4889  0.668  0.049 -0.291 -0.096
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
REDS         52 67 540 608  0.027 60.395   21  0.598   21 -0.092   21 -0.074   21 0.4879  0.634  0.062 -0.211  0.043
RANGERS      53 68 582 637  0.024 61.414   22  0.596   22 -0.093   20 -0.073   22 0.4871  0.503 -0.061 -0.086  0.511
METS         50 66 460 534  0.027 58.915   23  0.566   23 -0.103   23 -0.087   23 0.4865  0.724  0.138 -0.313 -0.597
TWINS        54 63 513 546 -0.062 55.344   24  0.541   24 -0.111   22 -0.078   24 0.4825  0.485 -0.081 -0.075  0.078
PADRES       48 73 467 573  0.059 63.008   25  0.434   25 -0.143   24 -0.119   25 0.4821  0.372 -0.220 -0.017  0.129
MARLINS      48 73 444 617  0.045 62.426   26  0.386   26 -0.155   26 -0.205   26 0.4797  0.705  0.001 -0.411 -0.508
TIGERS       50 69 453 547 -0.058 56.664   27  0.317   27 -0.184   27 -0.205   27 0.4728  0.288 -0.377 -0.034  0.109
WHITE SOX    42 76 476 638 -0.048 56.866   28  0.189   28 -0.291   29 -0.277   28 0.4585  0.629 -0.146 -0.409 -0.072
ORIOLES      35 84 467 643  0.028 60.903   29  0.061   29 -0.353   28 -0.271   29 0.4529  0.518 -0.244 -0.297  0.095
ROYALS       36 82 431 645 -0.029 57.847   30  0.000   30 -0.371   30 -0.345   30 0.4488  0.507 -0.329 -0.362  0.028

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DIAMONDBACKS 65 55 536 466  0.023 60.515   10  0.904   10  0.091    6  0.126    9 0.5140  0.339 -0.004  0.256  0.101
DODGERS      64 56 562 469  0.034 61.036   11  0.892   11  0.084    4  0.155   10 0.5136  0.464  0.133  0.177 -0.067
ROCKIES      63 55 551 568  0.031 59.980   12  0.859   12  0.081   15  0.024   12 0.5128  0.472  0.009  0.039  0.365
GIANTS       60 60 487 521  0.059 62.369   15  0.782   15  0.041   17  0.004   14 0.5074  0.308 -0.151  0.160  0.191
PADRES       48 73 467 573  0.059 63.008   25  0.434   25 -0.143   24 -0.119   25 0.4821  0.372 -0.220 -0.017  0.129

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         68 49 576 483 -0.010 57.431    6  1.053    6  0.137    7  0.123    5 0.5194  0.409  0.053  0.194  0.269
BREWERS      67 54 533 507  0.003 60.111    9  0.912    9  0.097   13  0.043   11 0.5134  0.385 -0.049  0.134  0.069
CARDINALS    64 55 542 496 -0.019 58.081   14  0.802   14  0.053   12  0.048   13 0.5082  0.521  0.078  0.018 -0.149
PIRATES      61 58 544 538  0.001 59.043   16  0.764   16  0.023   16  0.020   16 0.5037  0.612  0.135 -0.095 -0.114
REDS         52 67 540 608  0.027 60.395   21  0.598   21 -0.092   21 -0.074   21 0.4879  0.634  0.062 -0.211  0.043

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       66 51 568 478  0.000 57.867    7  0.980    7  0.114    5  0.134    7 0.5161  0.550  0.190  0.078 -0.106
PHILLIES     65 52 506 477  0.011 58.474    8  0.942    8  0.106   11  0.064    8 0.5150  0.398 -0.015  0.144  0.018
NATIONALS    60 59 547 478  0.010 59.435   17  0.760   17  0.016   10  0.075   17 0.5026  0.402 -0.001  0.152  0.129
METS         50 66 460 534  0.027 58.915   23  0.566   23 -0.103   23 -0.087   23 0.4865  0.724  0.138 -0.313 -0.597
MARLINS      48 73 444 617  0.045 62.426   26  0.386   26 -0.155   26 -0.205   26 0.4797  0.705  0.001 -0.411 -0.508

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       73 46 582 387 -0.009 58.128    3  1.240    3  0.197    2  0.287    3 0.5273  0.281  0.110  0.464 -0.034
ATHLETICS    71 48 568 502  0.000 58.827    4  1.162    4  0.174    9  0.105    4 0.5228  0.666  0.272 -0.062 -0.438
MARINERS     69 51 505 528  0.004 59.771    5  1.055    5  0.137   19 -0.012    6 0.5176  0.596  0.087 -0.112 -0.400
ANGELS       60 60 548 512  0.001 59.546   18  0.747   18  0.001   14  0.029   18 0.5008  0.487  0.028  0.030  0.030
RANGERS      53 68 582 637  0.024 61.414   22  0.596   22 -0.093   20 -0.073   22 0.4871  0.503 -0.061 -0.086  0.511

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      67 51 604 481 -0.083 54.388   13  0.823   13  0.063    8  0.123   15 0.5063  0.341 -0.006  0.251  0.363
TWINS        54 63 513 546 -0.062 55.344   24  0.541   24 -0.111   22 -0.078   24 0.4825  0.485 -0.081 -0.075  0.078
TIGERS       50 69 453 547 -0.058 56.664   27  0.317   27 -0.184   27 -0.205   27 0.4728  0.288 -0.377 -0.034  0.109
WHITE SOX    42 76 476 638 -0.048 56.866   28  0.189   28 -0.291   29 -0.277   28 0.4585  0.629 -0.146 -0.409 -0.072
ROYALS       36 82 431 645 -0.029 57.847   30  0.000   30 -0.371   30 -0.345   30 0.4488  0.507 -0.329 -0.362  0.028

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      85 35 659 446 -0.051 56.510    1  1.433    1  0.342    1  0.290    1 0.5443  0.489  0.290  0.289  0.098
YANKEES      74 44 613 476 -0.016 57.326    2  1.258    2  0.214    3  0.217    2 0.5274  0.410  0.147  0.287  0.239
RAYS         60 58 495 484 -0.019 57.624   19  0.746   19  0.001   18  0.001   19 0.4994  0.496  0.008 -0.006 -0.288
BLUE JAYS    53 65 523 597  0.014 59.494   20  0.629   20 -0.080   25 -0.121   20 0.4889  0.668  0.049 -0.291 -0.096
ORIOLES      35 84 467 643  0.028 60.903   29  0.061   29 -0.353   28 -0.271   29 0.4529  0.518 -0.244 -0.297  0.095

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    326 273 0.544    1  0.084
NL WEST    300 299 0.501    2  0.048
NL CENTRAL 312 283 0.524    3  0.040
AL EAST    307 286 0.518    4  0.030
NL EAST    289 301 0.490    5 -0.004
AL CENTRAL 249 341 0.422    6 -0.200

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.058 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Aug 14 05:30:17 2018
games through: Mon Aug 13 2018

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