Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       12  5  69  45  0.131  9.248    1  0.060    2  0.046    1  0.048    1 0.5650 -0.005 -0.284  0.380  0.366 P
BREWERS      13  5  78  61  0.088  9.534    2  0.059    1  0.047    4  0.034    2 0.5591  0.710  0.306 -0.238 -1.013 P
ATHLETICS    12  5  83  54  0.004  8.332    3  0.051    3  0.037    2  0.045    3 0.5334  0.134 -0.187  0.276  0.025 P
CARDINALS    11  7  72  60  0.133  9.835    4  0.048    4  0.031    3  0.035    5 0.5307  0.325 -0.045  0.115  0.499 P
NATIONALS    10  8  83  79  0.185 10.264    5  0.043    5  0.024    5  0.028    4 0.5316  0.719  0.309 -0.253 -0.375 P
RANGERS      11  7  80  72 -0.114  8.086    6  0.040    6  0.014   11  0.008    6 0.5128  0.413  0.002  0.014  0.018 P
TIGERS        8  6  60  60 -0.061  6.617    7  0.038    7  0.009   17 -0.000    7 0.5106  0.515  0.085 -0.086 -0.002 P
BLUE JAYS    10  8  74  68 -0.042  8.617    8  0.037    8  0.008   10  0.009    8 0.5078  0.131 -0.224  0.242  0.218 P
YANKEES      10  8  70  83 -0.070  8.463    9  0.036    9  0.007   21 -0.010    9 0.5059  0.667  0.220 -0.240 -0.176 P
RAYS          9  9  74  69  0.013  9.043   10  0.035   11  0.002   12  0.007   11 0.5041  0.329 -0.070  0.085  0.353 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROYALS        9  7  57  57 -0.115  7.229   11  0.034   10  0.003   22 -0.011   12 0.5028 -0.032 -0.361  0.339 -0.081 P
METS          8  9  73  81  0.099  9.170   12  0.033   12  0.002   18 -0.001   13 0.5023  0.284 -0.115  0.114  0.230 P
ORIOLES       8  8  66  65  0.005  7.993   13  0.032   13  0.001   13  0.003   10 0.5049  0.730  0.296 -0.289 -0.446 P
DODGERS       9  7  67  59 -0.191  6.716   14  0.031   15 -0.002   19 -0.005   15 0.4964  0.224 -0.167  0.157  0.240 P
MARINERS      7 10  65  65  0.213  9.935   15  0.030   14 -0.001    9  0.009   19 0.4918  0.287 -0.102  0.121 -0.420 P
ROCKIES      10  9  97  83 -0.118  8.522   16  0.029   17 -0.005   14  0.003   22 0.4894  0.565  0.136 -0.129  0.149 P
PADRES        9  9  50  56 -0.057  8.578   17  0.028   16 -0.005   25 -0.016   20 0.4898 -0.118 -0.424  0.391 -0.180 P
GIANTS       10  8  74  66 -0.205  7.482   18  0.027   19 -0.006   23 -0.014   21 0.4897  0.320 -0.098  0.070 -0.326 P
PIRATES       8 10  78  76  0.074  9.513   19  0.026   18 -0.006   15  0.002   16 0.4950  0.794  0.359 -0.356 -0.288 P
ANGELS        8  9  96  82 -0.020  8.268   20  0.025   20 -0.006    7  0.018   23 0.4892  0.825  0.408 -0.372  0.241 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         8  9  90  88 -0.013  8.388   21  0.024   21 -0.007   20 -0.005   17 0.4932  0.878  0.441 -0.452  0.178 P
RED SOX       8 10  64  70  0.022  9.123   22  0.023   22 -0.007   16  0.001   14 0.5011 -0.095 -0.392  0.393  0.360 P
REDS          7 10  66  60  0.072  8.915   23  0.022   24 -0.010    6  0.019   25 0.4867  0.152 -0.199  0.236  0.005 P
MARLINS       8 10  91  79  0.004  8.961   24  0.021   25 -0.012    8  0.010   24 0.4872  0.603  0.178 -0.157  0.141 P
PHILLIES      7 10  65  87  0.078  9.065   25  0.020   23 -0.010   26 -0.020   18 0.4918  0.587  0.132 -0.173 -0.077 P
WHITE SOX     8 10  90 104 -0.051  8.644   26  0.019   26 -0.014   27 -0.025   26 0.4826  0.909  0.456 -0.505 -0.090 P
INDIANS       7 10  71  80 -0.007  8.464   27  0.018   27 -0.016   24 -0.014   27 0.4821  0.576  0.128 -0.156 -0.058 P
CUBS          5 11  56  68  0.016  8.158   28  0.010   28 -0.031   28 -0.027   28 0.4597 -0.104 -0.425  0.370  0.458 P
ASTROS        5 13  51  89  0.019  9.295   29  0.004   29 -0.041   29 -0.060   29 0.4533  0.315 -0.148  0.028 -0.080 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5 13  71 115 -0.082  8.543   30  0.000   30 -0.047   30 -0.069   30 0.4450  0.854  0.352 -0.490  0.123 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       9  7  67  59 -0.191  6.716   14  0.031   15 -0.002   19 -0.005   15 0.4964  0.224 -0.167  0.157  0.240 P
ROCKIES      10  9  97  83 -0.118  8.522   16  0.029   17 -0.005   14  0.003   22 0.4894  0.565  0.136 -0.129  0.149 P
PADRES        9  9  50  56 -0.057  8.578   17  0.028   16 -0.005   25 -0.016   20 0.4898 -0.118 -0.424  0.391 -0.180 P
GIANTS       10  8  74  66 -0.205  7.482   18  0.027   19 -0.006   23 -0.014   21 0.4897  0.320 -0.098  0.070 -0.326 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5 13  71 115 -0.082  8.543   30  0.000   30 -0.047   30 -0.069   30 0.4450  0.854  0.352 -0.490  0.123 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      13  5  78  61  0.088  9.534    2  0.059    1  0.047    4  0.034    2 0.5591  0.710  0.306 -0.238 -1.013 P
CARDINALS    11  7  72  60  0.133  9.835    4  0.048    4  0.031    3  0.035    5 0.5307  0.325 -0.045  0.115  0.499 P
PIRATES       8 10  78  76  0.074  9.513   19  0.026   18 -0.006   15  0.002   16 0.4950  0.794  0.359 -0.356 -0.288 P
REDS          7 10  66  60  0.072  8.915   23  0.022   24 -0.010    6  0.019   25 0.4867  0.152 -0.199  0.236  0.005 P
CUBS          5 11  56  68  0.016  8.158   28  0.010   28 -0.031   28 -0.027   28 0.4597 -0.104 -0.425  0.370  0.458 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       12  5  69  45  0.131  9.248    1  0.060    2  0.046    1  0.048    1 0.5650 -0.005 -0.284  0.380  0.366 P
NATIONALS    10  8  83  79  0.185 10.264    5  0.043    5  0.024    5  0.028    4 0.5316  0.719  0.309 -0.253 -0.375 P
METS          8  9  73  81  0.099  9.170   12  0.033   12  0.002   18 -0.001   13 0.5023  0.284 -0.115  0.114  0.230 P
MARLINS       8 10  91  79  0.004  8.961   24  0.021   25 -0.012    8  0.010   24 0.4872  0.603  0.178 -0.157  0.141 P
PHILLIES      7 10  65  87  0.078  9.065   25  0.020   23 -0.010   26 -0.020   18 0.4918  0.587  0.132 -0.173 -0.077 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    12  5  83  54  0.004  8.332    3  0.051    3  0.037    2  0.045    3 0.5334  0.134 -0.187  0.276  0.025 P
RANGERS      11  7  80  72 -0.114  8.086    6  0.040    6  0.014   11  0.008    6 0.5128  0.413  0.002  0.014  0.018 P
MARINERS      7 10  65  65  0.213  9.935   15  0.030   14 -0.001    9  0.009   19 0.4918  0.287 -0.102  0.121 -0.420 P
ANGELS        8  9  96  82 -0.020  8.268   20  0.025   20 -0.006    7  0.018   23 0.4892  0.825  0.408 -0.372  0.241 P
ASTROS        5 13  51  89  0.019  9.295   29  0.004   29 -0.041   29 -0.060   29 0.4533  0.315 -0.148  0.028 -0.080 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIGERS        8  6  60  60 -0.061  6.617    7  0.038    7  0.009   17 -0.000    7 0.5106  0.515  0.085 -0.086 -0.002 P
ROYALS        9  7  57  57 -0.115  7.229   11  0.034   10  0.003   22 -0.011   12 0.5028 -0.032 -0.361  0.339 -0.081 P
TWINS         8  9  90  88 -0.013  8.388   21  0.024   21 -0.007   20 -0.005   17 0.4932  0.878  0.441 -0.452  0.178 P
WHITE SOX     8 10  90 104 -0.051  8.644   26  0.019   26 -0.014   27 -0.025   26 0.4826  0.909  0.456 -0.505 -0.090 P
INDIANS       7 10  71  80 -0.007  8.464   27  0.018   27 -0.016   24 -0.014   27 0.4821  0.576  0.128 -0.156 -0.058 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUE JAYS    10  8  74  68 -0.042  8.617    8  0.037    8  0.008   10  0.009    8 0.5078  0.131 -0.224  0.242  0.218 P
YANKEES      10  8  70  83 -0.070  8.463    9  0.036    9  0.007   21 -0.010    9 0.5059  0.667  0.220 -0.240 -0.176 P
RAYS          9  9  74  69  0.013  9.043   10  0.035   11  0.002   12  0.007   11 0.5041  0.329 -0.070  0.085  0.353 P
ORIOLES       8  8  66  65  0.005  7.993   13  0.032   13  0.001   13  0.003   10 0.5049  0.730  0.296 -0.289 -0.446 P
RED SOX       8 10  64  70  0.022  9.123   22  0.023   22 -0.007   16  0.001   14 0.5011 -0.095 -0.392  0.393  0.360 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL EAST    45 42 0.517    1  0.095
NL CENTRAL 44 43 0.506    2  0.088
AL WEST    43 44 0.494    3  0.034
AL EAST    45 43 0.511    4  0.013
AL CENTRAL 40 42 0.488    5 -0.082
NL WEST    43 46 0.483    6 -0.144

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.106 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sun Apr 20 05:30:09 2014
games through: Sat Apr 19 2014

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