Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       109  58 814 612 -0.007 83.186    1  0.274    1  0.291    3  0.235    1 0.5321   27  0.373    6  0.116    2  0.354   14  0.018
DODGERS      112  62 878 600 -0.005 86.679    2  0.272    2  0.279    1  0.298    2 0.5310   29  0.363    4  0.171    1  0.426   15 -0.010
RAYS         101  65 877 677  0.010 83.841    3  0.256    3  0.218    2  0.242    3 0.5302    2  0.707    1  0.432   11  0.052   30 -0.399
ASTROS       104  74 950 729  0.002 89.421    4  0.219    4  0.166    4  0.232    4 0.5255    4  0.653    2  0.369    9  0.095   23 -0.127
RED SOX       98  75 889 807  0.042 89.761    5  0.198    5  0.160    8  0.112    5 0.5222   17  0.486    7  0.092    8  0.132    3  0.340
BLUE JAYS     91  71 846 663  0.017 82.256    6  0.167    7  0.131    5  0.219    7 0.5199   18  0.468    3  0.183    4  0.255    8  0.159
YANKEES       92  71 713 675  0.029 83.781    7  0.164    6  0.144   10  0.086    6 0.5205   26  0.387   19 -0.021    6  0.192   18 -0.071
MARINERS      90  72 697 748  0.010 82.288    8  0.092    9  0.112   16 -0.023    8 0.5175    8  0.592   12  0.055   20 -0.101   27 -0.273
BRAVES        99  78 855 709 -0.005 88.502    9  0.090    8  0.112    6  0.169   12 0.5090   23  0.413    8  0.084    5  0.253    9  0.134
BREWERS       96  70 744 635 -0.053 79.902   10  0.080   10  0.110    9  0.095   11 0.5115   30  0.281   23 -0.100    3  0.291   11  0.109
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX     94  72 814 667 -0.032 81.220   11  0.069   11  0.103    7  0.131    9 0.5174   20  0.445   10  0.074    7  0.187   12  0.030
ATHLETICS     86  76 743 687  0.010 82.045   12  0.019   12  0.065   11  0.078   10 0.5131    9  0.591    5  0.156   14  0.001   28 -0.275
CARDINALS     90  73 707 675 -0.047 79.026   13  0.017   13  0.063   13  0.005   13 0.5054   15  0.523   15  0.019   16 -0.008   26 -0.262
PHILLIES      82  80 734 745 -0.011 80.959   14 -0.010   14  0.002   17 -0.030   19 0.4945    5  0.614   11  0.068   21 -0.129   17 -0.069
REDS          83  79 786 760 -0.045 78.710   15 -0.013   15 -0.011   14 -0.008   16 0.4964   24  0.412   21 -0.093   10  0.077    2  0.429
PADRES        79  83 729 708  0.011 82.351   16 -0.013   16 -0.015   12  0.016   18 0.4947   13  0.548   13  0.053   17 -0.021   24 -0.138
INDIANS       80  82 717 727 -0.017 80.516   17 -0.017   18 -0.026   15 -0.023   14 0.5012   14  0.532   18 -0.001   19 -0.045   21 -0.113
ANGELS        77  85 723 804  0.031 83.775   18 -0.017   17 -0.024   20 -0.079   15 0.5010    7  0.599   16  0.005   22 -0.164   13  0.018
METS          77  85 636 668 -0.009 81.072   19 -0.031   19 -0.055   18 -0.050   23 0.4876   19  0.454   22 -0.098   15 -0.002   29 -0.344
TIGERS        77  85 697 756 -0.018 80.558   20 -0.035   20 -0.061   21 -0.081   17 0.4964    6  0.600   17  0.004   23 -0.167   25 -0.234
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       74  87 739 796  0.017 82.345   21 -0.039   21 -0.065   19 -0.075   22 0.4882   22  0.417   24 -0.157   13  0.006    1  0.434
ROYALS        74  88 686 788 -0.006 81.421   22 -0.065   22 -0.087   25 -0.129   20 0.4930   25  0.401   26 -0.224   18 -0.034    5  0.258
TWINS         73  89 729 834 -0.005 81.499   23 -0.077   23 -0.098   24 -0.121   21 0.4917    3  0.664   14  0.026   27 -0.269   16 -0.041
CUBS          71  91 705 839 -0.024 80.312   24 -0.155   24 -0.136   26 -0.150   24 0.4803   10  0.586   20 -0.078   26 -0.221    7  0.159
MARLINS       67  95 623 701  0.002 81.930   25 -0.197   25 -0.164   22 -0.104   26 0.4740   28  0.365   28 -0.230   12  0.022   22 -0.117
NATIONALS     65  97 724 820 -0.003 81.615   26 -0.220   26 -0.191   23 -0.116   27 0.4706    1  0.717    9  0.084   29 -0.317   20 -0.092
RANGERS       60 102 625 815  0.032 84.092   27 -0.237   27 -0.225   27 -0.214   25 0.4764   16  0.492   27 -0.228   24 -0.199   19 -0.089
PIRATES       61 101 609 833 -0.014 81.065   28 -0.244   28 -0.249   29 -0.275   28 0.4661   21  0.433   30 -0.342   25 -0.208   10  0.114
ORIOLES       52 110 659 956  0.065 86.276   29 -0.263   29 -0.300   30 -0.282   29 0.4654   12  0.559   29 -0.235   30 -0.329    4  0.276
DIAMONDBACKS  52 110 679 893  0.036 84.378   30 -0.282   30 -0.323   28 -0.231   30 0.4575   11  0.582   25 -0.162   28 -0.299    6  0.173
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       109  58 814 612 -0.007 83.186    1  0.274    1  0.291    3  0.235    1 0.5321   27  0.373    6  0.116    2  0.354   14  0.018
DODGERS      112  62 878 600 -0.005 86.679    2  0.272    2  0.279    1  0.298    2 0.5310   29  0.363    4  0.171    1  0.426   15 -0.010
PADRES        79  83 729 708  0.011 82.351   16 -0.013   16 -0.015   12  0.016   18 0.4947   13  0.548   13  0.053   17 -0.021   24 -0.138
ROCKIES       74  87 739 796  0.017 82.345   21 -0.039   21 -0.065   19 -0.075   22 0.4882   22  0.417   24 -0.157   13  0.006    1  0.434
DIAMONDBACKS  52 110 679 893  0.036 84.378   30 -0.282   30 -0.323   28 -0.231   30 0.4575   11  0.582   25 -0.162   28 -0.299    6  0.173

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       96  70 744 635 -0.053 79.902   10  0.080   10  0.110    9  0.095   11 0.5115   30  0.281   23 -0.100    3  0.291   11  0.109
CARDINALS     90  73 707 675 -0.047 79.026   13  0.017   13  0.063   13  0.005   13 0.5054   15  0.523   15  0.019   16 -0.008   26 -0.262
REDS          83  79 786 760 -0.045 78.710   15 -0.013   15 -0.011   14 -0.008   16 0.4964   24  0.412   21 -0.093   10  0.077    2  0.429
CUBS          71  91 705 839 -0.024 80.312   24 -0.155   24 -0.136   26 -0.150   24 0.4803   10  0.586   20 -0.078   26 -0.221    7  0.159
PIRATES       61 101 609 833 -0.014 81.065   28 -0.244   28 -0.249   29 -0.275   28 0.4661   21  0.433   30 -0.342   25 -0.208   10  0.114

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES        99  78 855 709 -0.005 88.502    9  0.090    8  0.112    6  0.169   12 0.5090   23  0.413    8  0.084    5  0.253    9  0.134
PHILLIES      82  80 734 745 -0.011 80.959   14 -0.010   14  0.002   17 -0.030   19 0.4945    5  0.614   11  0.068   21 -0.129   17 -0.069
METS          77  85 636 668 -0.009 81.072   19 -0.031   19 -0.055   18 -0.050   23 0.4876   19  0.454   22 -0.098   15 -0.002   29 -0.344
MARLINS       67  95 623 701  0.002 81.930   25 -0.197   25 -0.164   22 -0.104   26 0.4740   28  0.365   28 -0.230   12  0.022   22 -0.117
NATIONALS     65  97 724 820 -0.003 81.615   26 -0.220   26 -0.191   23 -0.116   27 0.4706    1  0.717    9  0.084   29 -0.317   20 -0.092

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       104  74 950 729  0.002 89.421    4  0.219    4  0.166    4  0.232    4 0.5255    4  0.653    2  0.369    9  0.095   23 -0.127
MARINERS      90  72 697 748  0.010 82.288    8  0.092    9  0.112   16 -0.023    8 0.5175    8  0.592   12  0.055   20 -0.101   27 -0.273
ATHLETICS     86  76 743 687  0.010 82.045   12  0.019   12  0.065   11  0.078   10 0.5131    9  0.591    5  0.156   14  0.001   28 -0.275
ANGELS        77  85 723 804  0.031 83.775   18 -0.017   17 -0.024   20 -0.079   15 0.5010    7  0.599   16  0.005   22 -0.164   13  0.018
RANGERS       60 102 625 815  0.032 84.092   27 -0.237   27 -0.225   27 -0.214   25 0.4764   16  0.492   27 -0.228   24 -0.199   19 -0.089

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX     94  72 814 667 -0.032 81.220   11  0.069   11  0.103    7  0.131    9 0.5174   20  0.445   10  0.074    7  0.187   12  0.030
INDIANS       80  82 717 727 -0.017 80.516   17 -0.017   18 -0.026   15 -0.023   14 0.5012   14  0.532   18 -0.001   19 -0.045   21 -0.113
TIGERS        77  85 697 756 -0.018 80.558   20 -0.035   20 -0.061   21 -0.081   17 0.4964    6  0.600   17  0.004   23 -0.167   25 -0.234
ROYALS        74  88 686 788 -0.006 81.421   22 -0.065   22 -0.087   25 -0.129   20 0.4930   25  0.401   26 -0.224   18 -0.034    5  0.258
TWINS         73  89 729 834 -0.005 81.499   23 -0.077   23 -0.098   24 -0.121   21 0.4917    3  0.664   14  0.026   27 -0.269   16 -0.041

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         101  65 877 677  0.010 83.841    3  0.256    3  0.218    2  0.242    3 0.5302    2  0.707    1  0.432   11  0.052   30 -0.399
RED SOX       98  75 889 807  0.042 89.761    5  0.198    5  0.160    8  0.112    5 0.5222   17  0.486    7  0.092    8  0.132    3  0.340
BLUE JAYS     91  71 846 663  0.017 82.256    6  0.167    7  0.131    5  0.219    7 0.5199   18  0.468    3  0.183    4  0.255    8  0.159
YANKEES       92  71 713 675  0.029 83.781    7  0.164    6  0.144   10  0.086    6 0.5205   26  0.387   19 -0.021    6  0.192   18 -0.071
ORIOLES       52 110 659 956  0.065 86.276   29 -0.263   29 -0.300   30 -0.282   29 0.4654   12  0.559   29 -0.235   30 -0.329    4  0.276

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    434 392 0.525    1  0.093
NL WEST    426 400 0.516    2  0.058
AL WEST    417 409 0.505    3 -0.002
NL EAST    390 435 0.473    4 -0.032
AL CENTRAL 398 416 0.489    5 -0.054
NL CENTRAL 401 414 0.492    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Nov  3 05:30:12 2021
games through: Tue Nov  2 2021

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