Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      98 58 789 548 -0.004 77.885    1  0.933    1  0.209    1  0.258    1 0.5314  0.334  0.077  0.439 -0.000
DODGERS      99 57 730 560 -0.052 75.016    2  0.910    2  0.189    5  0.162    2 0.5284  0.371  0.012  0.313 -0.098
ASTROS       95 60 837 680  0.003 77.990    3  0.908    3  0.188    3  0.177    3 0.5276  0.813  0.446 -0.093 -0.336
RED SOX      91 64 754 624  0.030 79.636    4  0.854    4  0.163    4  0.164    4 0.5234  0.396  0.035  0.294  0.063
NATIONALS    94 61 790 640 -0.074 73.295    5  0.709    5  0.127    7  0.098    5 0.5182  0.504  0.065  0.132  0.021
YANKEES      86 69 822 643  0.030 79.611    6  0.635    6  0.111    2  0.199    6 0.5170  0.548  0.206  0.192  0.056
DIAMONDBACKS 90 66 777 635 -0.038 75.903    7  0.599    7  0.102    6  0.126    7 0.5165  0.352 -0.040  0.293  0.326
CUBS         87 68 783 676 -0.040 75.403    8  0.514    8  0.074    8  0.063    8 0.5103  0.486  0.013  0.113  0.217
TWINS        82 74 790 766  0.018 79.532    9  0.481    9  0.054   10  0.052    9 0.5082  0.607  0.115 -0.010  0.212
ROCKIES      84 72 784 731 -0.031 76.546   10  0.472   10  0.043   12  0.026   10 0.5074  0.445 -0.060  0.112  0.504
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      82 74 704 671 -0.028 76.735   11  0.460   11  0.024   13  0.023   12 0.5032  0.402 -0.101  0.146  0.106
ANGELS       77 78 675 678  0.039 80.381   12  0.458   12  0.020   14  0.018   11 0.5033  0.434 -0.078  0.114 -0.099
CARDINALS    81 74 738 664 -0.035 75.731   13  0.456   13  0.014    9  0.056   13 0.5022  0.595  0.108  0.004 -0.226
RAYS         76 80 666 683  0.049 81.591   14  0.455   14  0.012   15  0.011   14 0.5016  0.464 -0.058  0.081 -0.168
ROYALS       76 79 681 753  0.040 80.594   15  0.453   15  0.010   20 -0.054   15 0.5008  0.556 -0.039 -0.068 -0.045
RANGERS      76 79 776 763  0.024 79.452   16  0.452   17  0.001   11  0.034   16 0.5006  0.525  0.020  0.048  0.329
ORIOLES      75 82 736 809  0.061 82.937   17  0.451   16  0.003   17 -0.031   17 0.4999  0.628  0.051 -0.114  0.051
MARINERS     75 81 719 746  0.032 80.538   18  0.447   18 -0.011   16 -0.012   18 0.4983  0.602  0.046 -0.071 -0.142
BLUE JAYS    73 83 668 759  0.048 81.580   19  0.442   19 -0.022   19 -0.047   19 0.4964  0.517 -0.068 -0.026 -0.048
ATHLETICS    72 83 713 792  0.037 80.385   20  0.436   20 -0.034   18 -0.047   20 0.4948  0.560 -0.028 -0.065  0.135
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MARLINS      73 82 736 781 -0.046 75.273   21  0.380   21 -0.078   21 -0.088   21 0.4878  0.792  0.160 -0.336 -0.308
PIRATES      71 85 633 707 -0.021 77.379   22  0.357   22 -0.087   23 -0.098   23 0.4862  0.413 -0.212  0.016 -0.086
PADRES       70 86 592 773 -0.008 78.288   23  0.342   23 -0.090   29 -0.177   22 0.4869  0.542 -0.175 -0.178 -0.262
BRAVES       70 84 701 777 -0.047 74.812   24  0.304   24 -0.105   25 -0.118   24 0.4840  0.654 -0.010 -0.227 -0.107
WHITE SOX    63 92 684 787  0.040 80.642   25  0.199   25 -0.127   22 -0.088   25 0.4818  0.527 -0.101 -0.076  0.073
REDS         66 90 731 843 -0.009 78.131   26  0.177   26 -0.132   24 -0.115   26 0.4800  0.765  0.105 -0.335 -0.009
TIGERS       62 94 719 871  0.043 81.406   27  0.141   27 -0.140   26 -0.134   27 0.4793  0.605 -0.073 -0.195  0.273
METS         66 89 710 827 -0.030 76.400   28  0.133   28 -0.142   27 -0.137   28 0.4787  0.813  0.133 -0.407 -0.270
GIANTS       61 95 608 752 -0.007 78.335   29  0.008   29 -0.184   30 -0.179   29 0.4741  0.524 -0.194 -0.163 -0.245
PHILLIES     62 94 657 764 -0.034 76.623   30  0.000   30 -0.191   28 -0.141   30 0.4720  0.441 -0.231 -0.051  0.082

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      99 57 730 560 -0.052 75.016    2  0.910    2  0.189    5  0.162    2 0.5284  0.371  0.012  0.313 -0.098
DIAMONDBACKS 90 66 777 635 -0.038 75.903    7  0.599    7  0.102    6  0.126    7 0.5165  0.352 -0.040  0.293  0.326
ROCKIES      84 72 784 731 -0.031 76.546   10  0.472   10  0.043   12  0.026   10 0.5074  0.445 -0.060  0.112  0.504
PADRES       70 86 592 773 -0.008 78.288   23  0.342   23 -0.090   29 -0.177   22 0.4869  0.542 -0.175 -0.178 -0.262
GIANTS       61 95 608 752 -0.007 78.335   29  0.008   29 -0.184   30 -0.179   29 0.4741  0.524 -0.194 -0.163 -0.245

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         87 68 783 676 -0.040 75.403    8  0.514    8  0.074    8  0.063    8 0.5103  0.486  0.013  0.113  0.217
BREWERS      82 74 704 671 -0.028 76.735   11  0.460   11  0.024   13  0.023   12 0.5032  0.402 -0.101  0.146  0.106
CARDINALS    81 74 738 664 -0.035 75.731   13  0.456   13  0.014    9  0.056   13 0.5022  0.595  0.108  0.004 -0.226
PIRATES      71 85 633 707 -0.021 77.379   22  0.357   22 -0.087   23 -0.098   23 0.4862  0.413 -0.212  0.016 -0.086
REDS         66 90 731 843 -0.009 78.131   26  0.177   26 -0.132   24 -0.115   26 0.4800  0.765  0.105 -0.335 -0.009

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    94 61 790 640 -0.074 73.295    5  0.709    5  0.127    7  0.098    5 0.5182  0.504  0.065  0.132  0.021
MARLINS      73 82 736 781 -0.046 75.273   21  0.380   21 -0.078   21 -0.088   21 0.4878  0.792  0.160 -0.336 -0.308
BRAVES       70 84 701 777 -0.047 74.812   24  0.304   24 -0.105   25 -0.118   24 0.4840  0.654 -0.010 -0.227 -0.107
METS         66 89 710 827 -0.030 76.400   28  0.133   28 -0.142   27 -0.137   28 0.4787  0.813  0.133 -0.407 -0.270
PHILLIES     62 94 657 764 -0.034 76.623   30  0.000   30 -0.191   28 -0.141   30 0.4720  0.441 -0.231 -0.051  0.082

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       95 60 837 680  0.003 77.990    3  0.908    3  0.188    3  0.177    3 0.5276  0.813  0.446 -0.093 -0.336
ANGELS       77 78 675 678  0.039 80.381   12  0.458   12  0.020   14  0.018   11 0.5033  0.434 -0.078  0.114 -0.099
RANGERS      76 79 776 763  0.024 79.452   16  0.452   17  0.001   11  0.034   16 0.5006  0.525  0.020  0.048  0.329
MARINERS     75 81 719 746  0.032 80.538   18  0.447   18 -0.011   16 -0.012   18 0.4983  0.602  0.046 -0.071 -0.142
ATHLETICS    72 83 713 792  0.037 80.385   20  0.436   20 -0.034   18 -0.047   20 0.4948  0.560 -0.028 -0.065  0.135

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      98 58 789 548 -0.004 77.885    1  0.933    1  0.209    1  0.258    1 0.5314  0.334  0.077  0.439 -0.000
TWINS        82 74 790 766  0.018 79.532    9  0.481    9  0.054   10  0.052    9 0.5082  0.607  0.115 -0.010  0.212
ROYALS       76 79 681 753  0.040 80.594   15  0.453   15  0.010   20 -0.054   15 0.5008  0.556 -0.039 -0.068 -0.045
WHITE SOX    63 92 684 787  0.040 80.642   25  0.199   25 -0.127   22 -0.088   25 0.4818  0.527 -0.101 -0.076  0.073
TIGERS       62 94 719 871  0.043 81.406   27  0.141   27 -0.140   26 -0.134   27 0.4793  0.605 -0.073 -0.195  0.273

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      91 64 754 624  0.030 79.636    4  0.854    4  0.163    4  0.164    4 0.5234  0.396  0.035  0.294  0.063
YANKEES      86 69 822 643  0.030 79.611    6  0.635    6  0.111    2  0.199    6 0.5170  0.548  0.206  0.192  0.056
RAYS         76 80 666 683  0.049 81.591   14  0.455   14  0.012   15  0.011   14 0.5016  0.464 -0.058  0.081 -0.168
ORIOLES      75 82 736 809  0.061 82.937   17  0.451   16  0.003   17 -0.031   17 0.4999  0.628  0.051 -0.114  0.051
BLUE JAYS    73 83 668 759  0.048 81.580   19  0.442   19 -0.022   19 -0.047   19 0.4964  0.517 -0.068 -0.026 -0.048

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    401 378 0.515    1  0.080
AL WEST    395 381 0.509    2  0.045
AL CENTRAL 381 397 0.490    3  0.008
NL WEST    404 376 0.518    4 -0.011
NL CENTRAL 387 391 0.497    5 -0.019
NL EAST    365 410 0.471    6 -0.104

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.089 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Sep 25 05:30:43 2017
games through: Sun Sep 24 2017

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