Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    64 40 518 358  0.031 53.193    1  0.296    1  0.113    1  0.173    1 0.5321  0.406  0.172  0.175  0.019
ANGELS       62 41 502 413  0.035 52.948    2  0.237    2  0.101    2  0.112    2 0.5284  0.647  0.332 -0.108 -0.219
ORIOLES      58 46 441 412  0.037 53.637    3  0.143    3  0.064    7  0.053    3 0.5192  0.568  0.197 -0.091 -0.391
TIGERS       56 45 472 430  0.029 51.750    4  0.138    4  0.057    6  0.053    4 0.5167  0.514  0.148 -0.042  0.140
BLUE JAYS    57 49 489 450  0.035 54.579    5  0.131    5  0.046    4  0.060    5 0.5148  0.511  0.152 -0.032  0.165
YANKEES      54 50 412 439  0.043 53.999    6  0.124    6  0.032   15  0.004    6 0.5096  0.437  0.030 -0.021 -0.111
NATIONALS    56 46 430 357 -0.041 49.439    7  0.123    8  0.029    3  0.062    8 0.5073  0.303 -0.026  0.150 -0.022
CARDINALS    56 47 381 369 -0.022 50.763    8  0.122    7  0.030    9  0.019    7 0.5083  0.109 -0.221  0.259  0.192
BRAVES       58 47 408 373 -0.056 50.300    9  0.121    9  0.026   13  0.012   12 0.5054  0.246 -0.122  0.147 -0.069
BREWERS      58 48 460 433 -0.050 51.038   10  0.120   10  0.024   14  0.007   11 0.5058  0.496  0.085 -0.072 -0.030
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MARINERS     53 51 397 349  0.035 53.524   11  0.119   11  0.021    5  0.055   10 0.5060  0.283 -0.050  0.160 -0.293
DODGERS      57 47 432 382 -0.069 49.266   12  0.118   13  0.019    8  0.033   15 0.5043  0.362 -0.006  0.072 -0.113
PIRATES      56 49 437 434 -0.027 51.575   13  0.117   12  0.020   20 -0.013   14 0.5045  0.419 -0.003 -0.022  0.070
ROYALS       52 51 406 410  0.038 53.218   14  0.116   14  0.018   11  0.016    9 0.5062  0.301 -0.074  0.106  0.045
INDIANS      52 52 466 458  0.040 53.836   15  0.115   15  0.015   10  0.017   13 0.5048  0.522  0.118 -0.085  0.031
GIANTS       56 49 405 390 -0.051 50.552   16  0.114   16  0.011   18 -0.010   17 0.5011  0.279 -0.118  0.098 -0.048
RAYS         52 53 412 412  0.031 54.012   17  0.113   17  0.008   12  0.016   16 0.5041  0.324 -0.055  0.086 -0.012
WHITE SOX    51 54 451 467  0.012 53.226   18  0.111   18 -0.009   19 -0.010   18 0.4983  0.470  0.044 -0.064  0.060
MARLINS      51 53 427 456 -0.030 51.002   19  0.110   19 -0.019   23 -0.043   21 0.4926  0.516  0.054 -0.140  0.049
REDS         51 53 391 385 -0.034 50.793   20  0.109   20 -0.020   16 -0.007   19 0.4945  0.269 -0.123  0.109  0.028
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      47 58 402 453  0.048 54.758   21  0.107   21 -0.029   21 -0.030   20 0.4936  0.388 -0.047 -0.012 -0.057
METS         50 55 406 400 -0.028 51.534   22  0.106   22 -0.030   17 -0.009   22 0.4917  0.336 -0.070  0.052 -0.131
TWINS        47 57 428 470  0.026 53.340   23  0.105   23 -0.033   22 -0.031   23 0.4916  0.392 -0.045 -0.018  0.194
ASTROS       43 62 404 506  0.083 56.325   24  0.096   24 -0.051   27 -0.073   24 0.4864  0.540  0.046 -0.192 -0.054
PADRES       46 58 323 358 -0.038 50.686   25  0.085   26 -0.064   24 -0.067   28 0.4802  0.058 -0.345  0.210 -0.196
DIAMONDBACKS 46 57 415 480 -0.044 49.995   26  0.084   25 -0.062   30 -0.097   26 0.4811  0.459 -0.051 -0.142  0.185
PHILLIES     46 59 407 467 -0.027 51.660   27  0.083   27 -0.064   28 -0.076   27 0.4810  0.503  0.009 -0.161 -0.183
RANGERS      42 63 420 531  0.067 55.655   28  0.082   28 -0.064   25 -0.070   25 0.4819  0.564  0.072 -0.211  0.102
CUBS         43 60 399 445 -0.034 50.390   29  0.048   29 -0.083   26 -0.071   29 0.4773  0.460 -0.025 -0.117  0.035
ROCKIES      42 62 491 545 -0.041 50.592   30  0.000   30 -0.098   29 -0.079   30 0.4719  0.545  0.044 -0.202  0.610

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      57 47 432 382 -0.069 49.266   12  0.118   13  0.019    8  0.033   15 0.5043  0.362 -0.006  0.072 -0.113
GIANTS       56 49 405 390 -0.051 50.552   16  0.114   16  0.011   18 -0.010   17 0.5011  0.279 -0.118  0.098 -0.048
PADRES       46 58 323 358 -0.038 50.686   25  0.085   26 -0.064   24 -0.067   28 0.4802  0.058 -0.345  0.210 -0.196
DIAMONDBACKS 46 57 415 480 -0.044 49.995   26  0.084   25 -0.062   30 -0.097   26 0.4811  0.459 -0.051 -0.142  0.185
ROCKIES      42 62 491 545 -0.041 50.592   30  0.000   30 -0.098   29 -0.079   30 0.4719  0.545  0.044 -0.202  0.610

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS    56 47 381 369 -0.022 50.763    8  0.122    7  0.030    9  0.019    7 0.5083  0.109 -0.221  0.259  0.192
BREWERS      58 48 460 433 -0.050 51.038   10  0.120   10  0.024   14  0.007   11 0.5058  0.496  0.085 -0.072 -0.030
PIRATES      56 49 437 434 -0.027 51.575   13  0.117   12  0.020   20 -0.013   14 0.5045  0.419 -0.003 -0.022  0.070
REDS         51 53 391 385 -0.034 50.793   20  0.109   20 -0.020   16 -0.007   19 0.4945  0.269 -0.123  0.109  0.028
CUBS         43 60 399 445 -0.034 50.390   29  0.048   29 -0.083   26 -0.071   29 0.4773  0.460 -0.025 -0.117  0.035

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    56 46 430 357 -0.041 49.439    7  0.123    8  0.029    3  0.062    8 0.5073  0.303 -0.026  0.150 -0.022
BRAVES       58 47 408 373 -0.056 50.300    9  0.121    9  0.026   13  0.012   12 0.5054  0.246 -0.122  0.147 -0.069
MARLINS      51 53 427 456 -0.030 51.002   19  0.110   19 -0.019   23 -0.043   21 0.4926  0.516  0.054 -0.140  0.049
METS         50 55 406 400 -0.028 51.534   22  0.106   22 -0.030   17 -0.009   22 0.4917  0.336 -0.070  0.052 -0.131
PHILLIES     46 59 407 467 -0.027 51.660   27  0.083   27 -0.064   28 -0.076   27 0.4810  0.503  0.009 -0.161 -0.183

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    64 40 518 358  0.031 53.193    1  0.296    1  0.113    1  0.173    1 0.5321  0.406  0.172  0.175  0.019
ANGELS       62 41 502 413  0.035 52.948    2  0.237    2  0.101    2  0.112    2 0.5284  0.647  0.332 -0.108 -0.219
MARINERS     53 51 397 349  0.035 53.524   11  0.119   11  0.021    5  0.055   10 0.5060  0.283 -0.050  0.160 -0.293
ASTROS       43 62 404 506  0.083 56.325   24  0.096   24 -0.051   27 -0.073   24 0.4864  0.540  0.046 -0.192 -0.054
RANGERS      42 63 420 531  0.067 55.655   28  0.082   28 -0.064   25 -0.070   25 0.4819  0.564  0.072 -0.211  0.102

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIGERS       56 45 472 430  0.029 51.750    4  0.138    4  0.057    6  0.053    4 0.5167  0.514  0.148 -0.042  0.140
ROYALS       52 51 406 410  0.038 53.218   14  0.116   14  0.018   11  0.016    9 0.5062  0.301 -0.074  0.106  0.045
INDIANS      52 52 466 458  0.040 53.836   15  0.115   15  0.015   10  0.017   13 0.5048  0.522  0.118 -0.085  0.031
WHITE SOX    51 54 451 467  0.012 53.226   18  0.111   18 -0.009   19 -0.010   18 0.4983  0.470  0.044 -0.064  0.060
TWINS        47 57 428 470  0.026 53.340   23  0.105   23 -0.033   22 -0.031   23 0.4916  0.392 -0.045 -0.018  0.194

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORIOLES      58 46 441 412  0.037 53.637    3  0.143    3  0.064    7  0.053    3 0.5192  0.568  0.197 -0.091 -0.391
BLUE JAYS    57 49 489 450  0.035 54.579    5  0.131    5  0.046    4  0.060    5 0.5148  0.511  0.152 -0.032  0.165
YANKEES      54 50 412 439  0.043 53.999    6  0.124    6  0.032   15  0.004    6 0.5096  0.437  0.030 -0.021 -0.111
RAYS         52 53 412 412  0.031 54.012   17  0.113   17  0.008   12  0.016   16 0.5041  0.324 -0.055  0.086 -0.012
RED SOX      47 58 402 453  0.048 54.758   21  0.107   21 -0.029   21 -0.030   20 0.4936  0.388 -0.047 -0.012 -0.057

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    264 257 0.507    1  0.088
AL EAST    268 256 0.511    2  0.045
AL CENTRAL 258 259 0.499    3  0.020
NL EAST    261 260 0.501    4 -0.024
NL CENTRAL 264 257 0.507    5 -0.029
NL WEST    247 273 0.475    6 -0.098

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.038 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.005 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Tue Jul 29 05:30:11 2014
games through: Mon Jul 28 2014

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