Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    61 38 487 342  0.045 51.119    1  0.254    1  0.110    1  0.164    1 0.5339  0.402  0.156  0.171  0.001
ANGELS       59 40 490 405  0.036 50.844    2  0.177    2  0.090    2  0.103    2 0.5271  0.645  0.318 -0.112 -0.146
TIGERS       55 42 464 418  0.021 49.300    3  0.123    3  0.061    4  0.056    3 0.5189  0.582  0.211 -0.100  0.085
ORIOLES      55 45 429 405  0.037 51.500    4  0.117    4  0.053    6  0.045    4 0.5176  0.602  0.219 -0.129 -0.418
YANKEES      52 47 392 418  0.049 51.545    5  0.108    5  0.036   15  0.006    6 0.5116  0.443  0.035 -0.022 -0.135
BLUE JAYS    53 48 452 435  0.041 52.176    6  0.107    6  0.034    7  0.041    5 0.5120  0.449  0.075  0.008  0.229
MARINERS     52 48 390 337  0.038 51.479    7  0.106    7  0.029    3  0.061    7 0.5086  0.273 -0.054  0.177 -0.227
NATIONALS    54 44 416 346 -0.047 47.139    8  0.105   10  0.026    5  0.055   11 0.5068  0.338 -0.006  0.117 -0.060
GIANTS       56 44 400 366 -0.062 47.594    9  0.104    8  0.028   13  0.009   12 0.5066  0.305 -0.081  0.099 -0.059
BREWERS      56 45 443 423 -0.051 48.540   10  0.103    9  0.028   16  0.002    8 0.5077  0.520  0.100 -0.096 -0.022
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS    54 46 368 359 -0.020 49.281   11  0.102   11  0.026    9  0.016    9 0.5076  0.090 -0.240  0.273  0.195
BRAVES       55 45 389 359 -0.053 47.955   12  0.101   12  0.024   14  0.008   14 0.5046  0.254 -0.122  0.139 -0.102
INDIANS      51 49 446 440  0.041 51.697   13  0.100   13  0.022   11  0.016   10 0.5074  0.495  0.091 -0.059  0.056
PIRATES      54 47 423 413 -0.028 49.451   14  0.099   14  0.019   18 -0.006   13 0.5050  0.450  0.028 -0.040  0.034
ROYALS       49 50 388 390  0.039 51.134   15  0.098   15  0.009   10  0.016   15 0.5044  0.289 -0.087  0.119  0.028
DODGERS      54 47 415 378 -0.074 47.585   16  0.097   16  0.005    8  0.017   17 0.5004  0.364 -0.023  0.057 -0.119
RAYS         49 52 399 404  0.039 52.186   17  0.096   17  0.001   12  0.011   16 0.5024  0.320 -0.066  0.088  0.045
REDS         50 50 386 375 -0.036 48.657   18  0.094   18 -0.012   17 -0.002   18 0.4970  0.285 -0.108  0.104  0.095
WHITE SOX    48 53 427 456  0.019 51.419   19  0.093   19 -0.014   22 -0.020   20 0.4967  0.472  0.034 -0.074  0.064
RED SOX      46 54 394 420  0.044 51.880   20  0.092   20 -0.018   19 -0.007   19 0.4967  0.407 -0.010 -0.004 -0.111
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS        46 54 417 446  0.031 51.369   21  0.091   21 -0.023   21 -0.016   21 0.4946  0.381 -0.042  0.010  0.212
METS         47 53 391 383 -0.035 48.688   22  0.088   22 -0.035   20 -0.011   23 0.4888  0.379 -0.039  0.016 -0.181
ASTROS       42 58 391 477  0.086 53.638   23  0.087   23 -0.037   24 -0.057   22 0.4893  0.503  0.025 -0.139  0.006
MARLINS      46 53 404 443 -0.033 48.372   24  0.086   24 -0.039   23 -0.055   24 0.4853  0.577  0.095 -0.205 -0.039
PADRES       44 55 299 338 -0.044 47.937   25  0.076   25 -0.060   27 -0.069   27 0.4800 -0.022 -0.405  0.267 -0.135
DIAMONDBACKS 44 55 396 460 -0.044 47.948   26  0.074   26 -0.060   30 -0.093   26 0.4808  0.437 -0.070 -0.116  0.194
RANGERS      40 60 406 510  0.065 52.822   27  0.073   27 -0.061   26 -0.065   25 0.4818  0.562  0.072 -0.202  0.139
PHILLIES     43 57 385 442 -0.031 48.971   28  0.066   28 -0.067   28 -0.074   28 0.4782  0.501  0.006 -0.154 -0.231
CUBS         41 57 382 418 -0.032 47.926   29  0.055   29 -0.076   25 -0.061   29 0.4779  0.457 -0.020 -0.102 -0.009
ROCKIES      40 60 469 532 -0.043 48.467   30  0.000   30 -0.096   29 -0.087   30 0.4706  0.565  0.052 -0.226  0.610

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GIANTS       56 44 400 366 -0.062 47.594    9  0.104    8  0.028   13  0.009   12 0.5066  0.305 -0.081  0.099 -0.059
DODGERS      54 47 415 378 -0.074 47.585   16  0.097   16  0.005    8  0.017   17 0.5004  0.364 -0.023  0.057 -0.119
PADRES       44 55 299 338 -0.044 47.937   25  0.076   25 -0.060   27 -0.069   27 0.4800 -0.022 -0.405  0.267 -0.135
DIAMONDBACKS 44 55 396 460 -0.044 47.948   26  0.074   26 -0.060   30 -0.093   26 0.4808  0.437 -0.070 -0.116  0.194
ROCKIES      40 60 469 532 -0.043 48.467   30  0.000   30 -0.096   29 -0.087   30 0.4706  0.565  0.052 -0.226  0.610

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      56 45 443 423 -0.051 48.540   10  0.103    9  0.028   16  0.002    8 0.5077  0.520  0.100 -0.096 -0.022
CARDINALS    54 46 368 359 -0.020 49.281   11  0.102   11  0.026    9  0.016    9 0.5076  0.090 -0.240  0.273  0.195
PIRATES      54 47 423 413 -0.028 49.451   14  0.099   14  0.019   18 -0.006   13 0.5050  0.450  0.028 -0.040  0.034
REDS         50 50 386 375 -0.036 48.657   18  0.094   18 -0.012   17 -0.002   18 0.4970  0.285 -0.108  0.104  0.095
CUBS         41 57 382 418 -0.032 47.926   29  0.055   29 -0.076   25 -0.061   29 0.4779  0.457 -0.020 -0.102 -0.009

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    54 44 416 346 -0.047 47.139    8  0.105   10  0.026    5  0.055   11 0.5068  0.338 -0.006  0.117 -0.060
BRAVES       55 45 389 359 -0.053 47.955   12  0.101   12  0.024   14  0.008   14 0.5046  0.254 -0.122  0.139 -0.102
METS         47 53 391 383 -0.035 48.688   22  0.088   22 -0.035   20 -0.011   23 0.4888  0.379 -0.039  0.016 -0.181
MARLINS      46 53 404 443 -0.033 48.372   24  0.086   24 -0.039   23 -0.055   24 0.4853  0.577  0.095 -0.205 -0.039
PHILLIES     43 57 385 442 -0.031 48.971   28  0.066   28 -0.067   28 -0.074   28 0.4782  0.501  0.006 -0.154 -0.231

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    61 38 487 342  0.045 51.119    1  0.254    1  0.110    1  0.164    1 0.5339  0.402  0.156  0.171  0.001
ANGELS       59 40 490 405  0.036 50.844    2  0.177    2  0.090    2  0.103    2 0.5271  0.645  0.318 -0.112 -0.146
MARINERS     52 48 390 337  0.038 51.479    7  0.106    7  0.029    3  0.061    7 0.5086  0.273 -0.054  0.177 -0.227
ASTROS       42 58 391 477  0.086 53.638   23  0.087   23 -0.037   24 -0.057   22 0.4893  0.503  0.025 -0.139  0.006
RANGERS      40 60 406 510  0.065 52.822   27  0.073   27 -0.061   26 -0.065   25 0.4818  0.562  0.072 -0.202  0.139

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TIGERS       55 42 464 418  0.021 49.300    3  0.123    3  0.061    4  0.056    3 0.5189  0.582  0.211 -0.100  0.085
INDIANS      51 49 446 440  0.041 51.697   13  0.100   13  0.022   11  0.016   10 0.5074  0.495  0.091 -0.059  0.056
ROYALS       49 50 388 390  0.039 51.134   15  0.098   15  0.009   10  0.016   15 0.5044  0.289 -0.087  0.119  0.028
WHITE SOX    48 53 427 456  0.019 51.419   19  0.093   19 -0.014   22 -0.020   20 0.4967  0.472  0.034 -0.074  0.064
TWINS        46 54 417 446  0.031 51.369   21  0.091   21 -0.023   21 -0.016   21 0.4946  0.381 -0.042  0.010  0.212

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORIOLES      55 45 429 405  0.037 51.500    4  0.117    4  0.053    6  0.045    4 0.5176  0.602  0.219 -0.129 -0.418
YANKEES      52 47 392 418  0.049 51.545    5  0.108    5  0.036   15  0.006    6 0.5116  0.443  0.035 -0.022 -0.135
BLUE JAYS    53 48 452 435  0.041 52.176    6  0.107    6  0.034    7  0.041    5 0.5120  0.449  0.075  0.008  0.229
RAYS         49 52 399 404  0.039 52.186   17  0.096   17  0.001   12  0.011   16 0.5024  0.320 -0.066  0.088  0.045
RED SOX      46 54 394 420  0.044 51.880   20  0.092   20 -0.018   19 -0.007   19 0.4967  0.407 -0.010 -0.004 -0.111

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    254 244 0.510    1  0.097
AL EAST    255 246 0.509    2  0.045
AL CENTRAL 249 248 0.501    3  0.024
NL CENTRAL 255 245 0.510    4 -0.024
NL EAST    245 252 0.493    5 -0.036
NL WEST    238 261 0.477    6 -0.105

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.038 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.005 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Jul 24 05:30:12 2014
games through: Wed Jul 23 2014

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