Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      104  49 813 597 -0.042 72.605    1  1.421    1  0.317    2  0.237    1 0.5396  0.508  0.254  0.220  0.077
ASTROS        95  57 749 507  0.000 74.725    2  1.353    2  0.240    1  0.297    2 0.5318  0.361  0.185  0.408 -0.077
ATHLETICS     92  61 764 630 -0.005 75.069    3  1.287    3  0.192    5  0.165    3 0.5242  0.647  0.314  0.017 -0.255
YANKEES       93  59 782 620 -0.047 72.021    4  1.262    4  0.177    4  0.184    4 0.5230  0.396  0.102  0.266  0.287
CUBS          89  63 712 600  0.009 75.625    5  1.247    5  0.170    6  0.142    5 0.5216  0.354  0.025  0.259  0.193
BREWERS       87  66 687 627  0.015 76.569    6  1.162    6  0.142   10  0.095    6 0.5180  0.405  0.021  0.168  0.016
DODGERS       85  68 735 579  0.025 77.093    7  1.116    7  0.126    3  0.196    7 0.5169  0.514  0.219  0.173 -0.182
MARINERS      84  68 625 663  0.022 76.637    8  1.069    8  0.117   18 -0.011    8 0.5146  0.550  0.045 -0.067 -0.326
BRAVES        85  68 727 630  0.006 75.939    9  1.042    9  0.111    7  0.129    9 0.5144  0.439  0.085  0.173  0.099
ROCKIES       82  70 707 716  0.044 77.909   10  1.021   10  0.108   14  0.046   10 0.5135  0.461  0.021  0.070  0.391
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS     84  69 720 643  0.005 75.951   11  0.992   11  0.096   11  0.095   11 0.5124  0.601  0.199 -0.009 -0.172
RAYS          85  67 667 590 -0.028 73.374   12  0.977   12  0.091   12  0.077   12 0.5120  0.401  0.000  0.155 -0.169
DIAMONDBACKS  79  74 665 608  0.039 78.024   13  0.906   13  0.062    9  0.110   13 0.5082  0.343 -0.017  0.236  0.091
INDIANS       85  67 765 609 -0.095 69.260   14  0.881   14  0.042    8  0.114   14 0.5041  0.366  0.007  0.222  0.238
PIRATES       77  74 649 649  0.014 75.605   15  0.869   15  0.030   15  0.020   15 0.5038  0.570  0.095 -0.054 -0.265
PHILLIES      78  74 653 665  0.004 75.516   16  0.867   16  0.029   16  0.004   16 0.5033  0.470 -0.012  0.020 -0.004
NATIONALS     77  76 718 641  0.010 76.289   17  0.863   17  0.015   13  0.070   17 0.5021  0.461  0.045  0.094  0.153
ANGELS        75  78 684 674  0.010 76.403   18  0.849   18 -0.010   17  0.002   18 0.4995  0.478 -0.008  0.012  0.024
GIANTS        72  81 580 640  0.054 79.078   19  0.846   19 -0.015   20 -0.021   19 0.4982  0.290 -0.192  0.149  0.001
METS          71  82 651 677  0.024 77.263   20  0.817   20 -0.050   19 -0.019   20 0.4940  0.709  0.190 -0.229 -0.547
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BLUE JAYS     70  83 678 785 -0.014 75.352   21  0.727   21 -0.091   25 -0.156   21 0.4887  0.641 -0.013 -0.299 -0.018
REDS          66  88 679 783  0.049 79.384   22  0.704   22 -0.099   21 -0.089   22 0.4876  0.562 -0.021 -0.156  0.168
TWINS         71  81 676 741 -0.061 71.828   23  0.666   23 -0.109   23 -0.114   23 0.4843  0.556 -0.053 -0.176  0.061
RANGERS       64  88 706 800  0.024 77.032   24  0.582   24 -0.131   22 -0.114   24 0.4835  0.463 -0.137 -0.091  0.514
PADRES        61  92 587 726  0.056 79.335   25  0.509   25 -0.151   24 -0.133   25 0.4811  0.405 -0.207 -0.059  0.070
MARLINS       59  93 559 780  0.050 78.548   26  0.431   26 -0.177   26 -0.221   26 0.4773  0.759  0.040 -0.482 -0.601
TIGERS        62  91 599 740 -0.056 72.836   27  0.369   27 -0.225   27 -0.237   27 0.4698  0.438 -0.283 -0.192 -0.007
WHITE SOX     60  92 623 785 -0.059 72.230   28  0.355   28 -0.246   28 -0.242   28 0.4671  0.560 -0.176 -0.307 -0.016
ROYALS        52 101 599 798 -0.052 73.203   29  0.213   29 -0.348   29 -0.284   29 0.4553  0.470 -0.301 -0.267  0.122
ORIOLES       44 108 581 837 -0.000 75.944   30  0.000   30 -0.409   30 -0.343   30 0.4503  0.480 -0.350 -0.335  0.135

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       85  68 735 579  0.025 77.093    7  1.116    7  0.126    3  0.196    7 0.5169  0.514  0.219  0.173 -0.182
ROCKIES       82  70 707 716  0.044 77.909   10  1.021   10  0.108   14  0.046   10 0.5135  0.461  0.021  0.070  0.391
DIAMONDBACKS  79  74 665 608  0.039 78.024   13  0.906   13  0.062    9  0.110   13 0.5082  0.343 -0.017  0.236  0.091
GIANTS        72  81 580 640  0.054 79.078   19  0.846   19 -0.015   20 -0.021   19 0.4982  0.290 -0.192  0.149  0.001
PADRES        61  92 587 726  0.056 79.335   25  0.509   25 -0.151   24 -0.133   25 0.4811  0.405 -0.207 -0.059  0.070

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS          89  63 712 600  0.009 75.625    5  1.247    5  0.170    6  0.142    5 0.5216  0.354  0.025  0.259  0.193
BREWERS       87  66 687 627  0.015 76.569    6  1.162    6  0.142   10  0.095    6 0.5180  0.405  0.021  0.168  0.016
CARDINALS     84  69 720 643  0.005 75.951   11  0.992   11  0.096   11  0.095   11 0.5124  0.601  0.199 -0.009 -0.172
PIRATES       77  74 649 649  0.014 75.605   15  0.869   15  0.030   15  0.020   15 0.5038  0.570  0.095 -0.054 -0.265
REDS          66  88 679 783  0.049 79.384   22  0.704   22 -0.099   21 -0.089   22 0.4876  0.562 -0.021 -0.156  0.168

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES        85  68 727 630  0.006 75.939    9  1.042    9  0.111    7  0.129    9 0.5144  0.439  0.085  0.173  0.099
PHILLIES      78  74 653 665  0.004 75.516   16  0.867   16  0.029   16  0.004   16 0.5033  0.470 -0.012  0.020 -0.004
NATIONALS     77  76 718 641  0.010 76.289   17  0.863   17  0.015   13  0.070   17 0.5021  0.461  0.045  0.094  0.153
METS          71  82 651 677  0.024 77.263   20  0.817   20 -0.050   19 -0.019   20 0.4940  0.709  0.190 -0.229 -0.547
MARLINS       59  93 559 780  0.050 78.548   26  0.431   26 -0.177   26 -0.221   26 0.4773  0.759  0.040 -0.482 -0.601

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS        95  57 749 507  0.000 74.725    2  1.353    2  0.240    1  0.297    2 0.5318  0.361  0.185  0.408 -0.077
ATHLETICS     92  61 764 630 -0.005 75.069    3  1.287    3  0.192    5  0.165    3 0.5242  0.647  0.314  0.017 -0.255
MARINERS      84  68 625 663  0.022 76.637    8  1.069    8  0.117   18 -0.011    8 0.5146  0.550  0.045 -0.067 -0.326
ANGELS        75  78 684 674  0.010 76.403   18  0.849   18 -0.010   17  0.002   18 0.4995  0.478 -0.008  0.012  0.024
RANGERS       64  88 706 800  0.024 77.032   24  0.582   24 -0.131   22 -0.114   24 0.4835  0.463 -0.137 -0.091  0.514

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS       85  67 765 609 -0.095 69.260   14  0.881   14  0.042    8  0.114   14 0.5041  0.366  0.007  0.222  0.238
TWINS         71  81 676 741 -0.061 71.828   23  0.666   23 -0.109   23 -0.114   23 0.4843  0.556 -0.053 -0.176  0.061
TIGERS        62  91 599 740 -0.056 72.836   27  0.369   27 -0.225   27 -0.237   27 0.4698  0.438 -0.283 -0.192 -0.007
WHITE SOX     60  92 623 785 -0.059 72.230   28  0.355   28 -0.246   28 -0.242   28 0.4671  0.560 -0.176 -0.307 -0.016
ROYALS        52 101 599 798 -0.052 73.203   29  0.213   29 -0.348   29 -0.284   29 0.4553  0.470 -0.301 -0.267  0.122

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      104  49 813 597 -0.042 72.605    1  1.421    1  0.317    2  0.237    1 0.5396  0.508  0.254  0.220  0.077
YANKEES       93  59 782 620 -0.047 72.021    4  1.262    4  0.177    4  0.184    4 0.5230  0.396  0.102  0.266  0.287
RAYS          85  67 667 590 -0.028 73.374   12  0.977   12  0.091   12  0.077   12 0.5120  0.401  0.000  0.155 -0.169
BLUE JAYS     70  83 678 785 -0.014 75.352   21  0.727   21 -0.091   25 -0.156   21 0.4887  0.641 -0.013 -0.299 -0.018
ORIOLES       44 108 581 837 -0.000 75.944   30  0.000   30 -0.409   30 -0.343   30 0.4503  0.480 -0.350 -0.335  0.135

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    410 352 0.538    1  0.081
NL CENTRAL 403 360 0.528    2  0.064
NL WEST    379 385 0.496    3  0.047
AL EAST    396 366 0.520    4  0.001
NL EAST    370 393 0.485    5 -0.009
AL CENTRAL 330 432 0.433    6 -0.185

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.069 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Sep 21 05:30:32 2018
games through: Thu Sep 20 2018

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