Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         102  57   1 797 545 -0.052 76.207    1  0.888    1  0.185    1  0.238    1 0.5276  0.513  0.249  0.227 -0.356
RANGERS       95  65   0 760 747  0.025 81.400    2  0.813    2  0.156   10  0.046    2 0.5265  0.497  0.042  0.050  0.247
RED SOX       93  67   0 874 688  0.026 81.326    3  0.773    3  0.141    2  0.197    3 0.5240  0.499  0.195  0.199  0.414
INDIANS       92  67   0 768 670 -0.007 78.815    4  0.636    4  0.116    5  0.107    4 0.5209  0.302 -0.065  0.279  0.411
ORIOLES       88  72   0 736 706  0.053 83.163    5  0.601    5  0.109    6  0.079    5 0.5179  0.540  0.115  0.042 -0.003
BLUE JAYS     87  73   0 753 662  0.033 81.802    6  0.550    6  0.087    3  0.120    6 0.5155  0.296 -0.057  0.297  0.335
NATIONALS     93  67   0 751 604 -0.065 75.534    7  0.545    7  0.085    4  0.108    9 0.5129  0.515  0.121  0.095 -0.206
DODGERS       91  69   0 724 628 -0.041 77.178    8  0.530    8  0.080    8  0.062   12 0.5090  0.487  0.050  0.074 -0.311
MARINERS      86  74   0 758 695  0.023 81.259    9  0.509    9  0.071    7  0.069    7 0.5141  0.596  0.158 -0.019 -0.140
TIGERS        86  73   0 746 715  0.010 79.947   10  0.503   10  0.068   13  0.032    8 0.5130  0.501  0.032  0.032  0.113
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES       83  77   0 671 694  0.059 83.649   11  0.495   11  0.064   15  0.008   10 0.5106  0.293 -0.171  0.187  0.214
ASTROS        83  77   0 720 693  0.022 81.253   12  0.476   12  0.042   11  0.042   11 0.5094  0.632  0.165 -0.081 -0.429
GIANTS        85  75   0 705 630 -0.036 77.487   13  0.469   13  0.026    9  0.047   17 0.5010  0.261 -0.158  0.252  0.102
METS          86  74   0 664 609 -0.053 76.464   14  0.468   14  0.025   14  0.014   14 0.5030  0.343 -0.124  0.152 -0.101
CARDINALS     84  76   0 765 705 -0.026 78.104   15  0.467   15  0.023   12  0.035   16 0.5016  0.697  0.222 -0.152 -0.231
ROYALS        81  79   0 670 703  0.014 80.813   16  0.465   16  0.018   18 -0.013   13 0.5051  0.258 -0.221  0.194  0.315
WHITE SOX     78  82   0 683 703  0.023 81.357   17  0.460   17 -0.005   17  0.005   15 0.5019  0.435 -0.054  0.063 -0.032
PIRATES       78  81   1 722 744 -0.017 78.841   18  0.455   18 -0.025   21 -0.040   19 0.4939  0.547  0.003 -0.082 -0.027
MARLINS       79  80   0 647 670 -0.048 76.407   19  0.451   19 -0.034   22 -0.053   20 0.4933  0.556 -0.001 -0.104 -0.379
ANGELS        73  87   0 709 723  0.038 82.311   20  0.446   20 -0.043   16  0.006   18 0.4964  0.626  0.123 -0.111 -0.209
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKIES       75  85   0 838 850 -0.026 78.192   21  0.427   21 -0.064   20 -0.024   21 0.4876  0.562  0.032 -0.080  0.598
RAYS          66  94   0 662 708  0.060 83.752   22  0.346   22 -0.096   19 -0.023   23 0.4863  0.459 -0.061  0.015 -0.086
BREWERS       71  89   0 661 726 -0.019 78.870   23  0.345   23 -0.097   24 -0.096   24 0.4823  0.524 -0.075 -0.116 -0.148
ATHLETICS     67  93   0 641 751  0.044 82.772   24  0.341   24 -0.098   23 -0.087   22 0.4872  0.610  0.015 -0.189 -0.318
PHILLIES      70  90   0 602 789 -0.025 78.520   25  0.277   25 -0.113   30 -0.194   25 0.4803  0.642 -0.061 -0.327 -0.357
PADRES        68  92   0 679 758 -0.013 79.181   26  0.247   26 -0.122   25 -0.097   27 0.4776  0.481 -0.116 -0.079  0.046
REDS          67  93   0 705 843 -0.002 79.959   27  0.220   27 -0.126   26 -0.134   26 0.4780  0.699  0.055 -0.322 -0.079
DIAMONDBACKS  67  93   0 740 883 -0.005 79.737   28  0.211   28 -0.128   27 -0.138   28 0.4764  0.536 -0.106 -0.170  0.402
BRAVES        66  93   0 643 776 -0.031 77.672   29  0.115   29 -0.148   28 -0.155   29 0.4752  0.468 -0.185 -0.125  0.067
TWINS         57 103   0 710 886  0.034 82.198   30  0.000   30 -0.200   29 -0.162   30 0.4713  0.653 -0.018 -0.305  0.145

NL WEST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       91  69   0 724 628 -0.041 77.178    8  0.530    8  0.080    8  0.062   12 0.5090  0.487  0.050  0.074 -0.311
GIANTS        85  75   0 705 630 -0.036 77.487   13  0.469   13  0.026    9  0.047   17 0.5010  0.261 -0.158  0.252  0.102
ROCKIES       75  85   0 838 850 -0.026 78.192   21  0.427   21 -0.064   20 -0.024   21 0.4876  0.562  0.032 -0.080  0.598
PADRES        68  92   0 679 758 -0.013 79.181   26  0.247   26 -0.122   25 -0.097   27 0.4776  0.481 -0.116 -0.079  0.046
DIAMONDBACKS  67  93   0 740 883 -0.005 79.737   28  0.211   28 -0.128   27 -0.138   28 0.4764  0.536 -0.106 -0.170  0.402

NL CENTRAL
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         102  57   1 797 545 -0.052 76.207    1  0.888    1  0.185    1  0.238    1 0.5276  0.513  0.249  0.227 -0.356
CARDINALS     84  76   0 765 705 -0.026 78.104   15  0.467   15  0.023   12  0.035   16 0.5016  0.697  0.222 -0.152 -0.231
PIRATES       78  81   1 722 744 -0.017 78.841   18  0.455   18 -0.025   21 -0.040   19 0.4939  0.547  0.003 -0.082 -0.027
BREWERS       71  89   0 661 726 -0.019 78.870   23  0.345   23 -0.097   24 -0.096   24 0.4823  0.524 -0.075 -0.116 -0.148
REDS          67  93   0 705 843 -0.002 79.959   27  0.220   27 -0.126   26 -0.134   26 0.4780  0.699  0.055 -0.322 -0.079

NL EAST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS     93  67   0 751 604 -0.065 75.534    7  0.545    7  0.085    4  0.108    9 0.5129  0.515  0.121  0.095 -0.206
METS          86  74   0 664 609 -0.053 76.464   14  0.468   14  0.025   14  0.014   14 0.5030  0.343 -0.124  0.152 -0.101
MARLINS       79  80   0 647 670 -0.048 76.407   19  0.451   19 -0.034   22 -0.053   20 0.4933  0.556 -0.001 -0.104 -0.379
PHILLIES      70  90   0 602 789 -0.025 78.520   25  0.277   25 -0.113   30 -0.194   25 0.4803  0.642 -0.061 -0.327 -0.357
BRAVES        66  93   0 643 776 -0.031 77.672   29  0.115   29 -0.148   28 -0.155   29 0.4752  0.468 -0.185 -0.125  0.067

AL WEST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RANGERS       95  65   0 760 747  0.025 81.400    2  0.813    2  0.156   10  0.046    2 0.5265  0.497  0.042  0.050  0.247
MARINERS      86  74   0 758 695  0.023 81.259    9  0.509    9  0.071    7  0.069    7 0.5141  0.596  0.158 -0.019 -0.140
ASTROS        83  77   0 720 693  0.022 81.253   12  0.476   12  0.042   11  0.042   11 0.5094  0.632  0.165 -0.081 -0.429
ANGELS        73  87   0 709 723  0.038 82.311   20  0.446   20 -0.043   16  0.006   18 0.4964  0.626  0.123 -0.111 -0.209
ATHLETICS     67  93   0 641 751  0.044 82.772   24  0.341   24 -0.098   23 -0.087   22 0.4872  0.610  0.015 -0.189 -0.318

AL CENTRAL
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS       92  67   0 768 670 -0.007 78.815    4  0.636    4  0.116    5  0.107    4 0.5209  0.302 -0.065  0.279  0.411
TIGERS        86  73   0 746 715  0.010 79.947   10  0.503   10  0.068   13  0.032    8 0.5130  0.501  0.032  0.032  0.113
ROYALS        81  79   0 670 703  0.014 80.813   16  0.465   16  0.018   18 -0.013   13 0.5051  0.258 -0.221  0.194  0.315
WHITE SOX     78  82   0 683 703  0.023 81.357   17  0.460   17 -0.005   17  0.005   15 0.5019  0.435 -0.054  0.063 -0.032
TWINS         57 103   0 710 886  0.034 82.198   30  0.000   30 -0.200   29 -0.162   30 0.4713  0.653 -0.018 -0.305  0.145

AL EAST
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L   T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX       93  67   0 874 688  0.026 81.326    3  0.773    3  0.141    2  0.197    3 0.5240  0.499  0.195  0.199  0.414
ORIOLES       88  72   0 736 706  0.053 83.163    5  0.601    5  0.109    6  0.079    5 0.5179  0.540  0.115  0.042 -0.003
BLUE JAYS     87  73   0 753 662  0.033 81.802    6  0.550    6  0.087    3  0.120    6 0.5155  0.296 -0.057  0.297  0.335
YANKEES       83  77   0 671 694  0.059 83.649   11  0.495   11  0.064   15  0.008   10 0.5106  0.293 -0.171  0.187  0.214
RAYS          66  94   0 662 708  0.060 83.752   22  0.346   22 -0.096   19 -0.023   23 0.4863  0.459 -0.061  0.015 -0.086

DIVISION     W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    417 383   0 0.521    1  0.107
AL WEST    404 396   0 0.505    2  0.022
NL CENTRAL 402 396   2 0.504    3  0.000
AL CENTRAL 394 404   0 0.494    4 -0.008
NL WEST    386 414   0 0.482    5 -0.042
NL EAST    394 404   0 0.494    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.066 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Oct  1 05:30:28 2016
games through: Fri Sep 30 2016

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