Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        108  70 925 700  0.039 91.551    1  1.023    1  0.214    1  0.244    1 0.5299  0.547  0.357  0.131  0.051
ST. LOUIS     106  73 839 651 -0.013 88.434    2  0.908    2  0.153    3  0.172    2 0.5223  0.571  0.307  0.036 -0.226
OAKLAND        98  69 782 642  0.006 83.727    3  0.899    3  0.152    4  0.138    3 0.5186  0.571  0.273  0.002 -0.276
TAMPA BAY      94  74 716 672  0.048 87.088    4  0.819    4  0.133    5  0.101    4 0.5183  0.403  0.086  0.117 -0.100
DETROIT        98  75 832 658  0.015 87.323    5  0.796    6  0.125    2  0.195    6 0.5163  0.311  0.101  0.289  0.352
PITTSBURGH     97  71 655 600 -0.007 83.484    6  0.786    5  0.126   11  0.073    5 0.5180  0.350  0.013  0.134 -0.242
CLEVELAND      92  71 745 666  0.012 82.144    7  0.742    7  0.117    7  0.095    9 0.5142  0.537  0.199 -0.010 -0.068
TEXAS          91  72 730 636  0.006 81.817    8  0.681    8  0.102    8  0.092   10 0.5120  0.388  0.064  0.120  0.036
ATLANTA        97  69 700 572 -0.069 78.349    9  0.655    9  0.095   10  0.076    7 0.5154  0.392  0.050  0.101 -0.193
LA DODGERS     97  75 688 617 -0.041 83.171   10  0.610   10  0.081   13  0.066    8 0.5143  0.366  0.018  0.113 -0.246
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CINCINNATI     90  73 700 595 -0.017 80.348   11  0.608   12  0.077    6  0.098   11 0.5120  0.392  0.073  0.123 -0.097
BALTIMORE      85  77 745 709  0.051 84.245   12  0.604   13  0.075    9  0.085   12 0.5109  0.476  0.134  0.036  0.182
NY YANKEES     85  77 650 671  0.056 84.688   13  0.596   11  0.077   14  0.015   13 0.5105  0.222 -0.149  0.180  0.241
KANSAS CITY    86  76 648 601  0.020 82.232   14  0.576   14  0.065   12  0.071   14 0.5072  0.146 -0.152  0.294  0.220
WASHINGTON     86  76 656 626 -0.061 77.133   15  0.535   15  0.010   17 -0.016   15 0.5030  0.378 -0.053  0.021  0.009
LA ANGELS      78  84 733 737  0.018 82.240   16  0.525   16 -0.020   15  0.013   18 0.4950  0.598  0.174 -0.149 -0.027
ARIZONA        81  81 685 695 -0.037 78.755   17  0.523   17 -0.026   18 -0.046   16 0.4992  0.496  0.021 -0.112 -0.086
TORONTO        74  88 712 756  0.062 85.119   18  0.520   18 -0.031   16  0.006   17 0.4957  0.460  0.041 -0.028  0.259
SAN FRANCISCO  76  86 629 691 -0.028 79.357   19  0.472   19 -0.073   20 -0.097   19 0.4923  0.579  0.046 -0.241 -0.350
SAN DIEGO      76  86 618 700 -0.035 78.968   20  0.462   20 -0.077   26 -0.120   20 0.4915  0.593  0.037 -0.277 -0.415
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MILWAUKEE      74  88 640 687 -0.010 80.507   21  0.460   21 -0.080   19 -0.050   21 0.4895  0.392 -0.076 -0.025  0.115
SEATTLE        71  91 624 754  0.030 83.187   22  0.444   22 -0.085   21 -0.098   25 0.4853  0.426 -0.093 -0.102  0.012
COLORADO       74  88 706 760 -0.039 78.666   23  0.394   23 -0.101   22 -0.101   22 0.4884  0.458 -0.068 -0.133  0.330
NY METS        74  88 619 684 -0.053 77.813   24  0.359   25 -0.110   24 -0.109   23 0.4864  0.558  0.014 -0.232 -0.292
PHILADELPHIA   73  89 608 747 -0.034 79.142   25  0.339   24 -0.109   28 -0.177   24 0.4857  0.422 -0.176 -0.178  0.133
MINNESOTA      66  96 614 788  0.042 84.027   26  0.242   26 -0.130   27 -0.163   26 0.4787  0.423 -0.162 -0.165  0.148
CHI CUBS       66  96 602 689 -0.001 81.179   27  0.128   27 -0.158   23 -0.104   27 0.4783  0.250 -0.247  0.039  0.250
CHI WHITE SOX  63  99 598 723  0.031 83.311   28  0.097   28 -0.168   25 -0.117   28 0.4740  0.288 -0.230 -0.005  0.129
MIAMI          62 100 513 646 -0.041 78.650   29  0.024   29 -0.227   29 -0.189   29 0.4698  0.143 -0.414  0.037  0.011
HOUSTON        51 111 610 849  0.049 84.615   30  0.000   30 -0.286   30 -0.232   30 0.4575  0.476 -0.183 -0.281  0.139

NL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA DODGERS     97  75 688 617 -0.041 83.171   10  0.610   10  0.081   13  0.066    8 0.5143  0.366  0.018  0.113 -0.246
ARIZONA        81  81 685 695 -0.037 78.755   17  0.523   17 -0.026   18 -0.046   16 0.4992  0.496  0.021 -0.112 -0.086
SAN FRANCISCO  76  86 629 691 -0.028 79.357   19  0.472   19 -0.073   20 -0.097   19 0.4923  0.579  0.046 -0.241 -0.350
SAN DIEGO      76  86 618 700 -0.035 78.968   20  0.462   20 -0.077   26 -0.120   20 0.4915  0.593  0.037 -0.277 -0.415
COLORADO       74  88 706 760 -0.039 78.666   23  0.394   23 -0.101   22 -0.101   22 0.4884  0.458 -0.068 -0.133  0.330

NL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS     106  73 839 651 -0.013 88.434    2  0.908    2  0.153    3  0.172    2 0.5223  0.571  0.307  0.036 -0.226
PITTSBURGH     97  71 655 600 -0.007 83.484    6  0.786    5  0.126   11  0.073    5 0.5180  0.350  0.013  0.134 -0.242
CINCINNATI     90  73 700 595 -0.017 80.348   11  0.608   12  0.077    6  0.098   11 0.5120  0.392  0.073  0.123 -0.097
MILWAUKEE      74  88 640 687 -0.010 80.507   21  0.460   21 -0.080   19 -0.050   21 0.4895  0.392 -0.076 -0.025  0.115
CHI CUBS       66  96 602 689 -0.001 81.179   27  0.128   27 -0.158   23 -0.104   27 0.4783  0.250 -0.247  0.039  0.250

NL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA        97  69 700 572 -0.069 78.349    9  0.655    9  0.095   10  0.076    7 0.5154  0.392  0.050  0.101 -0.193
WASHINGTON     86  76 656 626 -0.061 77.133   15  0.535   15  0.010   17 -0.016   15 0.5030  0.378 -0.053  0.021  0.009
NY METS        74  88 619 684 -0.053 77.813   24  0.359   25 -0.110   24 -0.109   23 0.4864  0.558  0.014 -0.232 -0.292
PHILADELPHIA   73  89 608 747 -0.034 79.142   25  0.339   24 -0.109   28 -0.177   24 0.4857  0.422 -0.176 -0.178  0.133
MIAMI          62 100 513 646 -0.041 78.650   29  0.024   29 -0.227   29 -0.189   29 0.4698  0.143 -0.414  0.037  0.011

AL WEST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OAKLAND        98  69 782 642  0.006 83.727    3  0.899    3  0.152    4  0.138    3 0.5186  0.571  0.273  0.002 -0.276
TEXAS          91  72 730 636  0.006 81.817    8  0.681    8  0.102    8  0.092   10 0.5120  0.388  0.064  0.120  0.036
LA ANGELS      78  84 733 737  0.018 82.240   16  0.525   16 -0.020   15  0.013   18 0.4950  0.598  0.174 -0.149 -0.027
SEATTLE        71  91 624 754  0.030 83.187   22  0.444   22 -0.085   21 -0.098   25 0.4853  0.426 -0.093 -0.102  0.012
HOUSTON        51 111 610 849  0.049 84.615   30  0.000   30 -0.286   30 -0.232   30 0.4575  0.476 -0.183 -0.281  0.139

AL CENTRAL
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        98  75 832 658  0.015 87.323    5  0.796    6  0.125    2  0.195    6 0.5163  0.311  0.101  0.289  0.352
CLEVELAND      92  71 745 666  0.012 82.144    7  0.742    7  0.117    7  0.095    9 0.5142  0.537  0.199 -0.010 -0.068
KANSAS CITY    86  76 648 601  0.020 82.232   14  0.576   14  0.065   12  0.071   14 0.5072  0.146 -0.152  0.294  0.220
MINNESOTA      66  96 614 788  0.042 84.027   26  0.242   26 -0.130   27 -0.163   26 0.4787  0.423 -0.162 -0.165  0.148
CHI WHITE SOX  63  99 598 723  0.031 83.311   28  0.097   28 -0.168   25 -0.117   28 0.4740  0.288 -0.230 -0.005  0.129

AL EAST
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        108  70 925 700  0.039 91.551    1  1.023    1  0.214    1  0.244    1 0.5299  0.547  0.357  0.131  0.051
TAMPA BAY      94  74 716 672  0.048 87.088    4  0.819    4  0.133    5  0.101    4 0.5183  0.403  0.086  0.117 -0.100
BALTIMORE      85  77 745 709  0.051 84.245   12  0.604   13  0.075    9  0.085   12 0.5109  0.476  0.134  0.036  0.182
NY YANKEES     85  77 650 671  0.056 84.688   13  0.596   11  0.077   14  0.015   13 0.5105  0.222 -0.149  0.180  0.241
TORONTO        74  88 712 756  0.062 85.119   18  0.520   18 -0.031   16  0.006   17 0.4957  0.460  0.041 -0.028  0.259

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    446 386 0.536    1  0.118
NL CENTRAL 433 401 0.519    2  0.050
AL CENTRAL 405 417 0.493    3  0.021
AL WEST    389 427 0.477    4 -0.022
NL WEST    404 416 0.493    5 -0.078
NL EAST    392 422 0.482    6 -0.108

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.064 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Oct 31 05:30:15 2013
games through: Wed Oct 30 2013

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