Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 36 471 372 -0.020 45.848    1  0.196    1  0.167    3  0.161    1 0.5278   12  0.582    5  0.265   15  0.057   24 -0.138
BLUE JAYS    55 39 434 413  0.014 46.771    2  0.141    2  0.132   10  0.059    2 0.5218   18  0.395   15 -0.006    8  0.125    6  0.256
CUBS         55 39 503 390  0.007 46.349    3  0.137    3  0.130    2  0.174    3 0.5211   10  0.613    2  0.307   16  0.042   12  0.044
ASTROS       55 39 412 353 -0.014 45.686    4  0.112    4  0.115    6  0.097    4 0.5198   17  0.400   14  0.036    5  0.157   16 -0.020
DODGERS      56 39 511 446 -0.031 45.492    5  0.108    5  0.114    9  0.078    5 0.5177    9  0.629    7  0.227   20 -0.071    4  0.297
BREWERS      54 40 443 370 -0.009 45.807    6  0.092    6  0.102    4  0.111    7 0.5156    2  0.714    1  0.344   21 -0.121   30 -0.519
YANKEES      53 41 498 381 -0.002 46.046    7  0.082    7  0.092    1  0.186    6 0.5176   11  0.584    3  0.292   13  0.080   15 -0.017
PHILLIES     54 40 432 369 -0.031 45.006    8  0.082    8  0.092    7  0.094    8 0.5148   28  0.202   21 -0.129    1  0.317    2  0.427
METS         54 41 421 377 -0.021 45.913    9  0.075    9  0.089   11  0.056    9 0.5125   20  0.368   19 -0.032    6  0.144   22 -0.107
PADRES       51 43 377 370 -0.002 46.220   10  0.044   10  0.061   17  0.014   10 0.5092   25  0.285   22 -0.143    4  0.172   20 -0.075
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    50 45 433 416  0.027 47.781   11  0.037   11  0.054   13  0.045   12 0.5082    7  0.657    9  0.221   23 -0.130   25 -0.151
GIANTS       52 43 396 375 -0.027 45.754   12  0.036   12  0.053   16  0.016   11 0.5084   27  0.254   25 -0.166    3  0.198   14  0.004
RAYS         50 45 448 383  0.014 47.200   13  0.030   13  0.046    5  0.100   13 0.5076   14  0.538   11  0.163   17  0.037   19 -0.060
RED SOX      51 45 486 429 -0.002 47.107   14  0.029   14  0.045    8  0.078   15 0.5067    5  0.685    4  0.282   22 -0.125   13  0.038
MARINERS     49 45 428 408  0.012 46.736   15  0.023   15  0.037   14  0.037   14 0.5070    6  0.685    6  0.240   25 -0.167   28 -0.434
REDS         48 47 433 405 -0.003 46.661   16  0.006   16  0.006   15  0.032   16 0.4999   13  0.576   12  0.130   19 -0.066   23 -0.116
TWINS        46 48 389 404  0.016 46.921   17  0.001   17 -0.006   19  0.001   17 0.4999   21  0.355   20 -0.098   12  0.100    7  0.212
RANGERS      47 48 384 340 -0.009 46.382   18 -0.002   19 -0.013   12  0.047   20 0.4982   19  0.385   17 -0.027    9  0.120   29 -0.484
ANGELS       46 48 407 470  0.014 46.964   19 -0.003   18 -0.008   24 -0.086   18 0.4996   15  0.534   18 -0.028   24 -0.145    9  0.125
ROYALS       46 49 324 351  0.015 47.490   20 -0.006   20 -0.014   21 -0.048   21 0.4968   26  0.262   27 -0.224    7  0.128   26 -0.255
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS    44 49 341 391  0.038 47.337   21 -0.008   21 -0.017   23 -0.062   19 0.4990   23  0.320   26 -0.191   14  0.066   21 -0.090
DIAMONDBACKS 46 49 483 477 -0.017 46.158   22 -0.017   22 -0.033   18  0.008   22 0.4942    3  0.699    8  0.225   26 -0.209   10  0.113
ORIOLES      43 50 392 466  0.024 46.841   23 -0.024   23 -0.041   25 -0.095   23 0.4930   16  0.410   23 -0.146   18 -0.043    3  0.334
MARLINS      42 51 391 462 -0.007 45.762   24 -0.054   24 -0.076   26 -0.120   24 0.4859    1  0.768   10  0.167   30 -0.406   27 -0.404
BRAVES       41 52 377 375 -0.026 44.898   25 -0.080   25 -0.100   20 -0.026   25 0.4837   24  0.315   24 -0.159   11  0.107   18 -0.057
PIRATES      38 57 320 366  0.052 48.880   26 -0.105   26 -0.116   22 -0.053   26 0.4810   30  0.031   28 -0.403    2  0.296   11  0.106
ATHLETICS    39 57 407 545  0.011 47.973   27 -0.131   27 -0.131   28 -0.172   27 0.4790    8  0.643   16 -0.010   28 -0.334    5  0.277
NATIONALS    38 56 411 505 -0.021 45.788   28 -0.164   28 -0.153   29 -0.180   28 0.4749    4  0.699   13  0.037   29 -0.397   17 -0.034
WHITE SOX    32 63 325 418  0.006 47.260   29 -0.239   29 -0.236   27 -0.159   29 0.4625   29  0.142   29 -0.428   10  0.110    8  0.130
ROCKIES      22 72 331 581  0.022 47.631   30 -0.397   30 -0.385   30 -0.400   30 0.4365   22  0.340   30 -0.512   27 -0.288    1  0.596

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 39 511 446 -0.031 45.492    5  0.108    5  0.114    9  0.078    5 0.5177    9  0.629    7  0.227   20 -0.071    4  0.297
PADRES       51 43 377 370 -0.002 46.220   10  0.044   10  0.061   17  0.014   10 0.5092   25  0.285   22 -0.143    4  0.172   20 -0.075
GIANTS       52 43 396 375 -0.027 45.754   12  0.036   12  0.053   16  0.016   11 0.5084   27  0.254   25 -0.166    3  0.198   14  0.004
DIAMONDBACKS 46 49 483 477 -0.017 46.158   22 -0.017   22 -0.033   18  0.008   22 0.4942    3  0.699    8  0.225   26 -0.209   10  0.113
ROCKIES      22 72 331 581  0.022 47.631   30 -0.397   30 -0.385   30 -0.400   30 0.4365   22  0.340   30 -0.512   27 -0.288    1  0.596

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         55 39 503 390  0.007 46.349    3  0.137    3  0.130    2  0.174    3 0.5211   10  0.613    2  0.307   16  0.042   12  0.044
BREWERS      54 40 443 370 -0.009 45.807    6  0.092    6  0.102    4  0.111    7 0.5156    2  0.714    1  0.344   21 -0.121   30 -0.519
CARDINALS    50 45 433 416  0.027 47.781   11  0.037   11  0.054   13  0.045   12 0.5082    7  0.657    9  0.221   23 -0.130   25 -0.151
REDS         48 47 433 405 -0.003 46.661   16  0.006   16  0.006   15  0.032   16 0.4999   13  0.576   12  0.130   19 -0.066   23 -0.116
PIRATES      38 57 320 366  0.052 48.880   26 -0.105   26 -0.116   22 -0.053   26 0.4810   30  0.031   28 -0.403    2  0.296   11  0.106

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     54 40 432 369 -0.031 45.006    8  0.082    8  0.092    7  0.094    8 0.5148   28  0.202   21 -0.129    1  0.317    2  0.427
METS         54 41 421 377 -0.021 45.913    9  0.075    9  0.089   11  0.056    9 0.5125   20  0.368   19 -0.032    6  0.144   22 -0.107
MARLINS      42 51 391 462 -0.007 45.762   24 -0.054   24 -0.076   26 -0.120   24 0.4859    1  0.768   10  0.167   30 -0.406   27 -0.404
BRAVES       41 52 377 375 -0.026 44.898   25 -0.080   25 -0.100   20 -0.026   25 0.4837   24  0.315   24 -0.159   11  0.107   18 -0.057
NATIONALS    38 56 411 505 -0.021 45.788   28 -0.164   28 -0.153   29 -0.180   28 0.4749    4  0.699   13  0.037   29 -0.397   17 -0.034

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       55 39 412 353 -0.014 45.686    4  0.112    4  0.115    6  0.097    4 0.5198   17  0.400   14  0.036    5  0.157   16 -0.020
MARINERS     49 45 428 408  0.012 46.736   15  0.023   15  0.037   14  0.037   14 0.5070    6  0.685    6  0.240   25 -0.167   28 -0.434
RANGERS      47 48 384 340 -0.009 46.382   18 -0.002   19 -0.013   12  0.047   20 0.4982   19  0.385   17 -0.027    9  0.120   29 -0.484
ANGELS       46 48 407 470  0.014 46.964   19 -0.003   18 -0.008   24 -0.086   18 0.4996   15  0.534   18 -0.028   24 -0.145    9  0.125
ATHLETICS    39 57 407 545  0.011 47.973   27 -0.131   27 -0.131   28 -0.172   27 0.4790    8  0.643   16 -0.010   28 -0.334    5  0.277

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 36 471 372 -0.020 45.848    1  0.196    1  0.167    3  0.161    1 0.5278   12  0.582    5  0.265   15  0.057   24 -0.138
TWINS        46 48 389 404  0.016 46.921   17  0.001   17 -0.006   19  0.001   17 0.4999   21  0.355   20 -0.098   12  0.100    7  0.212
ROYALS       46 49 324 351  0.015 47.490   20 -0.006   20 -0.014   21 -0.048   21 0.4968   26  0.262   27 -0.224    7  0.128   26 -0.255
GUARDIANS    44 49 341 391  0.038 47.337   21 -0.008   21 -0.017   23 -0.062   19 0.4990   23  0.320   26 -0.191   14  0.066   21 -0.090
WHITE SOX    32 63 325 418  0.006 47.260   29 -0.239   29 -0.236   27 -0.159   29 0.4625   29  0.142   29 -0.428   10  0.110    8  0.130

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    55 39 434 413  0.014 46.771    2  0.141    2  0.132   10  0.059    2 0.5218   18  0.395   15 -0.006    8  0.125    6  0.256
YANKEES      53 41 498 381 -0.002 46.046    7  0.082    7  0.092    1  0.186    6 0.5176   11  0.584    3  0.292   13  0.080   15 -0.017
RAYS         50 45 448 383  0.014 47.200   13  0.030   13  0.046    5  0.100   13 0.5076   14  0.538   11  0.163   17  0.037   19 -0.060
RED SOX      51 45 486 429 -0.002 47.107   14  0.029   14  0.045    8  0.078   15 0.5067    5  0.685    4  0.282   22 -0.125   13  0.038
ORIOLES      43 50 392 466  0.024 46.841   23 -0.024   23 -0.041   25 -0.095   23 0.4930   16  0.410   23 -0.146   18 -0.043    3  0.334

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    252 220 0.534    1  0.097
NL CENTRAL 245 228 0.518    2  0.091
AL WEST    236 237 0.499    3 -0.022
AL CENTRAL 227 245 0.481    4 -0.032
NL EAST    229 240 0.488    5 -0.051
NL WEST    227 246 0.480    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.082 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 12 05:30:09 2025
games through: Fri Jul 11 2025

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