Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      68 30 530 367 -0.022 47.270    1  1.370    1  0.320    2  0.285    1 0.5439  0.437  0.248  0.322  0.255
YANKEES      62 33 493 362  0.019 47.514    2  1.293    2  0.269    3  0.266    2 0.5372  0.419  0.214  0.319  0.144
ASTROS       64 35 500 312 -0.023 47.755    3  1.261    3  0.238    1  0.309    3 0.5325  0.340  0.188  0.430 -0.099
MARINERS     58 39 412 414 -0.000 48.203    4  1.122    4  0.168   16  0.014    4 0.5225  0.529  0.060 -0.032 -0.298
CUBS         55 38 476 362 -0.008 45.791    5  1.076    5  0.149    4  0.180    5 0.5220  0.416  0.125  0.236  0.174
ATHLETICS    55 42 449 425  0.014 48.658    6  1.010    6  0.125    9  0.064    6 0.5167  0.698  0.272 -0.145 -0.407
PHILLIES     53 42 411 393  0.012 47.637    7  0.955    7  0.106   10  0.057    7 0.5161  0.548  0.120 -0.007 -0.155
BRAVES       52 42 456 388  0.005 46.759    8  0.943    8  0.092    6  0.128   10 0.5147  0.551  0.194  0.062 -0.115
BREWERS      55 43 426 377 -0.021 47.855    9  0.930    9  0.090   11  0.052   11 0.5122  0.248 -0.143  0.247  0.067
DODGERS      53 43 453 371 -0.002 47.533   10  0.924   11  0.087    5  0.146    8 0.5153  0.516  0.180  0.112 -0.172
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DIAMONDBACKS 53 44 421 378  0.016 48.752   11  0.916   10  0.089    8  0.088    9 0.5150  0.356 -0.019  0.194  0.042
ROCKIES      51 45 467 468  0.005 47.917   12  0.840   12  0.056   15  0.026   12 0.5110  0.446 -0.003  0.055  0.582
GIANTS       50 48 399 425  0.043 50.436   13  0.818   13  0.046   17  0.001   13 0.5091  0.316 -0.139  0.142  0.153
RAYS         49 47 401 381  0.032 48.868   14  0.810   14  0.039   12  0.051   14 0.5058  0.477  0.050  0.052 -0.327
INDIANS      52 43 487 405 -0.067 44.469   15  0.806   15  0.035    7  0.100   17 0.5020  0.367  0.003  0.197  0.439
ANGELS       49 48 425 401  0.017 48.845   16  0.784   16  0.021   13  0.038   15 0.5040  0.465  0.026  0.049 -0.088
NATIONALS    48 48 417 387  0.007 47.961   17  0.765   17  0.005   14  0.036   16 0.5020  0.392 -0.040  0.112  0.074
CARDINALS    48 46 413 402 -0.024 45.836   18  0.761   18  0.001   18 -0.002   18 0.5001  0.544  0.057 -0.062 -0.187
PIRATES      48 49 425 450 -0.010 47.895   19  0.738   19 -0.016   19 -0.039   19 0.4979  0.657  0.128 -0.207 -0.142
BLUE JAYS    43 52 423 467  0.042 49.007   20  0.686   20 -0.051   22 -0.072   20 0.4922  0.637  0.075 -0.220 -0.064
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
REDS         43 53 461 493  0.020 48.569   21  0.648   21 -0.073   20 -0.044   21 0.4894  0.663  0.129 -0.218  0.077
TWINS        44 50 424 447 -0.062 44.523   22  0.594   22 -0.095   21 -0.056   24 0.4832  0.611  0.067 -0.179  0.000
MARLINS      41 57 376 491  0.035 50.251   23  0.536   23 -0.117   26 -0.157   22 0.4849  0.742  0.095 -0.409 -0.534
RANGERS      41 56 424 487  0.019 49.257   24  0.531   24 -0.119   24 -0.112   25 0.4829  0.403 -0.179 -0.045  0.503
METS         39 55 363 431  0.029 47.940   25  0.514   25 -0.124   23 -0.107   23 0.4834  0.663  0.067 -0.280 -0.530
PADRES       40 59 365 465  0.042 51.046   26  0.477   26 -0.136   25 -0.145   26 0.4825  0.201 -0.377  0.087  0.307
TIGERS       41 57 386 456 -0.068 46.447   27  0.358   27 -0.186   27 -0.193   27 0.4707  0.287 -0.357 -0.029  0.182
WHITE SOX    33 62 384 510 -0.056 45.652   28  0.203   28 -0.297   28 -0.270   28 0.4542  0.565 -0.190 -0.349 -0.034
ORIOLES      28 69 345 504  0.029 49.933   29  0.108   29 -0.344   29 -0.286   29 0.4515  0.434 -0.325 -0.246  0.023
ROYALS       27 68 337 530 -0.022 47.058   30  0.000   30 -0.384   30 -0.358   30 0.4439  0.457 -0.377 -0.339  0.128

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      53 43 453 371 -0.002 47.533   10  0.924   11  0.087    5  0.146    8 0.5153  0.516  0.180  0.112 -0.172
DIAMONDBACKS 53 44 421 378  0.016 48.752   11  0.916   10  0.089    8  0.088    9 0.5150  0.356 -0.019  0.194  0.042
ROCKIES      51 45 467 468  0.005 47.917   12  0.840   12  0.056   15  0.026   12 0.5110  0.446 -0.003  0.055  0.582
GIANTS       50 48 399 425  0.043 50.436   13  0.818   13  0.046   17  0.001   13 0.5091  0.316 -0.139  0.142  0.153
PADRES       40 59 365 465  0.042 51.046   26  0.477   26 -0.136   25 -0.145   26 0.4825  0.201 -0.377  0.087  0.307

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         55 38 476 362 -0.008 45.791    5  1.076    5  0.149    4  0.180    5 0.5220  0.416  0.125  0.236  0.174
BREWERS      55 43 426 377 -0.021 47.855    9  0.930    9  0.090   11  0.052   11 0.5122  0.248 -0.143  0.247  0.067
CARDINALS    48 46 413 402 -0.024 45.836   18  0.761   18  0.001   18 -0.002   18 0.5001  0.544  0.057 -0.062 -0.187
PIRATES      48 49 425 450 -0.010 47.895   19  0.738   19 -0.016   19 -0.039   19 0.4979  0.657  0.128 -0.207 -0.142
REDS         43 53 461 493  0.020 48.569   21  0.648   21 -0.073   20 -0.044   21 0.4894  0.663  0.129 -0.218  0.077

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILLIES     53 42 411 393  0.012 47.637    7  0.955    7  0.106   10  0.057    7 0.5161  0.548  0.120 -0.007 -0.155
BRAVES       52 42 456 388  0.005 46.759    8  0.943    8  0.092    6  0.128   10 0.5147  0.551  0.194  0.062 -0.115
NATIONALS    48 48 417 387  0.007 47.961   17  0.765   17  0.005   14  0.036   16 0.5020  0.392 -0.040  0.112  0.074
MARLINS      41 57 376 491  0.035 50.251   23  0.536   23 -0.117   26 -0.157   22 0.4849  0.742  0.095 -0.409 -0.534
METS         39 55 363 431  0.029 47.940   25  0.514   25 -0.124   23 -0.107   23 0.4834  0.663  0.067 -0.280 -0.530

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       64 35 500 312 -0.023 47.755    3  1.261    3  0.238    1  0.309    3 0.5325  0.340  0.188  0.430 -0.099
MARINERS     58 39 412 414 -0.000 48.203    4  1.122    4  0.168   16  0.014    4 0.5225  0.529  0.060 -0.032 -0.298
ATHLETICS    55 42 449 425  0.014 48.658    6  1.010    6  0.125    9  0.064    6 0.5167  0.698  0.272 -0.145 -0.407
ANGELS       49 48 425 401  0.017 48.845   16  0.784   16  0.021   13  0.038   15 0.5040  0.465  0.026  0.049 -0.088
RANGERS      41 56 424 487  0.019 49.257   24  0.531   24 -0.119   24 -0.112   25 0.4829  0.403 -0.179 -0.045  0.503

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      52 43 487 405 -0.067 44.469   15  0.806   15  0.035    7  0.100   17 0.5020  0.367  0.003  0.197  0.439
TWINS        44 50 424 447 -0.062 44.523   22  0.594   22 -0.095   21 -0.056   24 0.4832  0.611  0.067 -0.179  0.000
TIGERS       41 57 386 456 -0.068 46.447   27  0.358   27 -0.186   27 -0.193   27 0.4707  0.287 -0.357 -0.029  0.182
WHITE SOX    33 62 384 510 -0.056 45.652   28  0.203   28 -0.297   28 -0.270   28 0.4542  0.565 -0.190 -0.349 -0.034
ROYALS       27 68 337 530 -0.022 47.058   30  0.000   30 -0.384   30 -0.358   30 0.4439  0.457 -0.377 -0.339  0.128

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      68 30 530 367 -0.022 47.270    1  1.370    1  0.320    2  0.285    1 0.5439  0.437  0.248  0.322  0.255
YANKEES      62 33 493 362  0.019 47.514    2  1.293    2  0.269    3  0.266    2 0.5372  0.419  0.214  0.319  0.144
RAYS         49 47 401 381  0.032 48.868   14  0.810   14  0.039   12  0.051   14 0.5058  0.477  0.050  0.052 -0.327
BLUE JAYS    43 52 423 467  0.042 49.007   20  0.686   20 -0.051   22 -0.072   20 0.4922  0.637  0.075 -0.220 -0.064
ORIOLES      28 69 345 504  0.029 49.933   29  0.108   29 -0.344   29 -0.286   29 0.4515  0.434 -0.325 -0.246  0.023

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    267 220 0.548    1  0.081
AL EAST    250 231 0.520    2  0.065
NL CENTRAL 249 229 0.521    3  0.038
NL WEST    247 239 0.508    4  0.031
NL EAST    233 244 0.488    5 -0.011
AL CENTRAL 197 280 0.413    6 -0.204

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.064 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jul 16 05:30:21 2018
games through: Sun Jul 15 2018

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