Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      87 34 620 400 -0.038 58.765    1  0.970    1  0.295    1  0.274    1 0.5498  0.335  0.089  0.459 -0.025
ASTROS       76 47 697 535 -0.013 61.243    2  0.838    2  0.163    2  0.182    2 0.5276  0.847  0.485 -0.120 -0.335
NATIONALS    73 48 643 514 -0.056 58.206    3  0.658    3  0.116    5  0.111    3 0.5191  0.615  0.178  0.045 -0.052
RED SOX      70 52 590 495 -0.006 61.143    4  0.603    4  0.103    7  0.105    4 0.5171  0.418 -0.010  0.219  0.044
INDIANS      68 53 590 457 -0.016 60.105    5  0.538    5  0.080    3  0.148    5 0.5144  0.343 -0.030  0.326  0.053
ROCKIES      68 55 644 590 -0.006 61.637    6  0.518    6  0.073    9  0.061    6 0.5126  0.490  0.011  0.111  0.483
DIAMONDBACKS 67 56 597 504  0.001 61.865    7  0.512    7  0.065    6  0.109    7 0.5119  0.324 -0.085  0.303  0.303
YANKEES      66 56 629 514  0.002 61.510    8  0.505    8  0.061    4  0.128    8 0.5111  0.490  0.078  0.179  0.139
CUBS         65 57 591 538 -0.008 61.124    9  0.481    9  0.042   11  0.042    9 0.5068  0.444 -0.049  0.134  0.216
ANGELS       63 60 527 530  0.016 62.811   10  0.468   11  0.027   13  0.006   10 0.5052  0.388 -0.134  0.147 -0.044
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS        62 59 566 615  0.017 61.939   11  0.467   10  0.027   16 -0.022   11 0.5040  0.554 -0.014 -0.030  0.222
CARDINALS    63 60 584 533  0.002 62.073   12  0.462   12  0.019    8  0.070   12 0.5031  0.592  0.114  0.026 -0.245
MARINERS     63 61 586 595  0.001 62.645   13  0.458   13  0.012   14 -0.008   13 0.5020  0.636  0.078 -0.094 -0.137
BREWERS      64 60 575 559 -0.026 61.273   14  0.457   14  0.009   12  0.013   14 0.5009  0.461 -0.064  0.089  0.099
ROYALS       61 61 542 573  0.010 62.118   15  0.455   15  0.006   18 -0.036   16 0.5004  0.525 -0.054 -0.017 -0.042
RANGERS      61 61 626 590 -0.002 61.407   16  0.454   16  0.000   10  0.050   15 0.5007  0.545  0.050  0.049  0.264
ORIOLES      60 63 585 631  0.029 63.555   17  0.452   17 -0.002   19 -0.038   17 0.4995  0.657  0.069 -0.146 -0.004
RAYS         60 65 535 554  0.022 64.217   18  0.446   18 -0.016   15 -0.020   18 0.4974  0.461 -0.096  0.056 -0.129
BLUE JAYS    59 64 524 604  0.022 63.250   19  0.444   19 -0.017   20 -0.060   19 0.4964  0.532 -0.072 -0.048 -0.061
MARLINS      59 62 565 580 -0.015 60.371   20  0.438   20 -0.026   17 -0.026   20 0.4952  0.691  0.115 -0.166 -0.227
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PIRATES      59 64 525 569 -0.017 61.338   21  0.428   21 -0.039   21 -0.067   21 0.4924  0.495 -0.113 -0.021 -0.108
PADRES       55 68 470 620  0.007 62.684   22  0.381   22 -0.072   29 -0.156   22 0.4878  0.518 -0.181 -0.131 -0.200
TIGERS       53 69 584 642  0.016 62.472   23  0.359   23 -0.084   22 -0.072   23 0.4861  0.670  0.048 -0.191  0.106
BRAVES       54 67 551 628 -0.016 60.471   24  0.355   24 -0.085   27 -0.109   25 0.4852  0.675  0.016 -0.234 -0.083
ATHLETICS    53 70 538 645  0.022 63.313   25  0.349   25 -0.087   26 -0.109   24 0.4853  0.531 -0.122 -0.095  0.154
METS         54 67 565 621 -0.018 60.320   26  0.347   26 -0.088   23 -0.081   26 0.4848  0.778  0.148 -0.310 -0.227
REDS         53 71 594 687  0.016 63.530   27  0.326   27 -0.095   24 -0.084   27 0.4837  0.795  0.163 -0.330 -0.003
GIANTS       50 75 509 617  0.006 63.638   28  0.145   28 -0.140   28 -0.146   28 0.4778  0.581 -0.112 -0.179 -0.260
WHITE SOX    46 74 523 621  0.034 62.333   29  0.122   29 -0.147   25 -0.106   29 0.4757  0.547 -0.104 -0.108  0.072
PHILLIES     44 77 482 596 -0.002 61.181   30  0.000   30 -0.197   30 -0.157   30 0.4667  0.410 -0.278 -0.035  0.028

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      87 34 620 400 -0.038 58.765    1  0.970    1  0.295    1  0.274    1 0.5498  0.335  0.089  0.459 -0.025
ROCKIES      68 55 644 590 -0.006 61.637    6  0.518    6  0.073    9  0.061    6 0.5126  0.490  0.011  0.111  0.483
DIAMONDBACKS 67 56 597 504  0.001 61.865    7  0.512    7  0.065    6  0.109    7 0.5119  0.324 -0.085  0.303  0.303
PADRES       55 68 470 620  0.007 62.684   22  0.381   22 -0.072   29 -0.156   22 0.4878  0.518 -0.181 -0.131 -0.200
GIANTS       50 75 509 617  0.006 63.638   28  0.145   28 -0.140   28 -0.146   28 0.4778  0.581 -0.112 -0.179 -0.260

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         65 57 591 538 -0.008 61.124    9  0.481    9  0.042   11  0.042    9 0.5068  0.444 -0.049  0.134  0.216
CARDINALS    63 60 584 533  0.002 62.073   12  0.462   12  0.019    8  0.070   12 0.5031  0.592  0.114  0.026 -0.245
BREWERS      64 60 575 559 -0.026 61.273   14  0.457   14  0.009   12  0.013   14 0.5009  0.461 -0.064  0.089  0.099
PIRATES      59 64 525 569 -0.017 61.338   21  0.428   21 -0.039   21 -0.067   21 0.4924  0.495 -0.113 -0.021 -0.108
REDS         53 71 594 687  0.016 63.530   27  0.326   27 -0.095   24 -0.084   27 0.4837  0.795  0.163 -0.330 -0.003

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    73 48 643 514 -0.056 58.206    3  0.658    3  0.116    5  0.111    3 0.5191  0.615  0.178  0.045 -0.052
MARLINS      59 62 565 580 -0.015 60.371   20  0.438   20 -0.026   17 -0.026   20 0.4952  0.691  0.115 -0.166 -0.227
BRAVES       54 67 551 628 -0.016 60.471   24  0.355   24 -0.085   27 -0.109   25 0.4852  0.675  0.016 -0.234 -0.083
METS         54 67 565 621 -0.018 60.320   26  0.347   26 -0.088   23 -0.081   26 0.4848  0.778  0.148 -0.310 -0.227
PHILLIES     44 77 482 596 -0.002 61.181   30  0.000   30 -0.197   30 -0.157   30 0.4667  0.410 -0.278 -0.035  0.028

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       76 47 697 535 -0.013 61.243    2  0.838    2  0.163    2  0.182    2 0.5276  0.847  0.485 -0.120 -0.335
ANGELS       63 60 527 530  0.016 62.811   10  0.468   11  0.027   13  0.006   10 0.5052  0.388 -0.134  0.147 -0.044
MARINERS     63 61 586 595  0.001 62.645   13  0.458   13  0.012   14 -0.008   13 0.5020  0.636  0.078 -0.094 -0.137
RANGERS      61 61 626 590 -0.002 61.407   16  0.454   16  0.000   10  0.050   15 0.5007  0.545  0.050  0.049  0.264
ATHLETICS    53 70 538 645  0.022 63.313   25  0.349   25 -0.087   26 -0.109   24 0.4853  0.531 -0.122 -0.095  0.154

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      68 53 590 457 -0.016 60.105    5  0.538    5  0.080    3  0.148    5 0.5144  0.343 -0.030  0.326  0.053
TWINS        62 59 566 615  0.017 61.939   11  0.467   10  0.027   16 -0.022   11 0.5040  0.554 -0.014 -0.030  0.222
ROYALS       61 61 542 573  0.010 62.118   15  0.455   15  0.006   18 -0.036   16 0.5004  0.525 -0.054 -0.017 -0.042
TIGERS       53 69 584 642  0.016 62.472   23  0.359   23 -0.084   22 -0.072   23 0.4861  0.670  0.048 -0.191  0.106
WHITE SOX    46 74 523 621  0.034 62.333   29  0.122   29 -0.147   25 -0.106   29 0.4757  0.547 -0.104 -0.108  0.072

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      70 52 590 495 -0.006 61.143    4  0.603    4  0.103    7  0.105    4 0.5171  0.418 -0.010  0.219  0.044
YANKEES      66 56 629 514  0.002 61.510    8  0.505    8  0.061    4  0.128    8 0.5111  0.490  0.078  0.179  0.139
ORIOLES      60 63 585 631  0.029 63.555   17  0.452   17 -0.002   19 -0.038   17 0.4995  0.657  0.069 -0.146 -0.004
RAYS         60 65 535 554  0.022 64.217   18  0.446   18 -0.016   15 -0.020   18 0.4974  0.461 -0.096  0.056 -0.129
BLUE JAYS    59 64 524 604  0.022 63.250   19  0.444   19 -0.017   20 -0.060   19 0.4964  0.532 -0.072 -0.048 -0.061

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    327 288 0.532    1  0.042
AL WEST    316 299 0.514    2  0.036
AL EAST    315 300 0.512    3  0.034
NL CENTRAL 304 312 0.494    4 -0.008
AL CENTRAL 290 316 0.479    5 -0.026
NL EAST    284 321 0.469    6 -0.078

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Aug 20 05:30:21 2017
games through: Sat Aug 19 2017

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