Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      67 31 501 328 -0.024 48.279    1  0.903    1  0.223    1  0.246    1 0.5422  0.350  0.076  0.417  0.002
ASTROS       65 32 574 403 -0.017 48.177    2  0.889    2  0.209    2  0.233    2 0.5410  0.930  0.628 -0.161 -0.472
NATIONALS    58 38 534 427 -0.047 46.613    3  0.610    3  0.108    5  0.108    3 0.5192  0.685  0.245 -0.029 -0.026
DIAMONDBACKS 56 41 490 380 -0.015 48.241    4  0.560    5  0.090    3  0.130    5 0.5174  0.281 -0.097  0.358  0.356
ROCKIES      57 42 527 479 -0.002 49.877    5  0.557    4  0.096    7  0.070    4 0.5183  0.512  0.041  0.098  0.524
RED SOX      55 44 468 403 -0.023 49.089    6  0.470    6  0.059    8  0.064    6 0.5122  0.473  0.000  0.127 -0.139
CUBS         50 46 450 429  0.002 48.631    7  0.432    7  0.027   12  0.017   10 0.5039  0.492 -0.029  0.064  0.098
YANKEES      50 46 511 409 -0.008 48.131    8  0.431    9  0.023    4  0.124    7 0.5067  0.508  0.092  0.157  0.226
BREWERS      53 47 484 448 -0.028 49.423    9  0.430    8  0.024   10  0.036   11 0.5030  0.472 -0.028  0.100  0.185
INDIANS      50 45 452 378 -0.033 46.704   10  0.425   11  0.017    6  0.072    8 0.5056  0.356 -0.093  0.238  0.079
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RAYS         51 47 454 440 -0.014 49.022   11  0.424   10  0.018   13  0.006    9 0.5043  0.511 -0.023  0.035 -0.035
ROYALS       49 47 408 430 -0.005 48.439   12  0.419   12  0.011   17 -0.031   12 0.5027  0.420 -0.142  0.079 -0.012
TWINS        49 47 437 500 -0.004 48.488   13  0.417   13  0.010   21 -0.060   13 0.5025  0.571 -0.034 -0.086  0.205
PIRATES      49 49 418 433  0.011 50.052   14  0.413   14  0.005   16 -0.018   17 0.4984  0.475 -0.080  0.044 -0.166
MARINERS     49 50 469 474  0.013 50.589   15  0.410   15 -0.000   14  0.001   15 0.5004  0.632  0.086 -0.083 -0.117
ANGELS       48 51 404 423  0.032 51.375   16  0.408   16 -0.003   15 -0.013   14 0.5007  0.305 -0.220  0.194  0.003
RANGERS      47 50 472 462  0.011 49.451   17  0.403   17 -0.014   11  0.024   16 0.4989  0.580  0.058 -0.011  0.153
CARDINALS    47 50 440 418  0.008 49.296   18  0.401   18 -0.016    9  0.050   19 0.4952  0.490  0.001  0.098 -0.198
ORIOLES      46 51 448 524  0.028 50.305   19  0.396   19 -0.020   25 -0.088   18 0.4959  0.684  0.047 -0.223 -0.034
BRAVES       47 49 450 487 -0.023 47.814   20  0.392   20 -0.024   22 -0.069   20 0.4948  0.650  0.033 -0.171 -0.027
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MARLINS      44 51 436 470  0.004 48.292   21  0.375   22 -0.044   18 -0.044   22 0.4903  0.721  0.129 -0.216 -0.234
METS         45 50 459 499 -0.019 47.443   22  0.374   21 -0.043   20 -0.057   23 0.4903  0.835  0.233 -0.348 -0.226
BLUE JAYS    44 53 400 483  0.024 50.111   23  0.371   23 -0.047   27 -0.090   21 0.4907  0.460 -0.165 -0.014 -0.003
ATHLETICS    43 54 421 498  0.046 50.972   24  0.368   24 -0.049   23 -0.071   24 0.4902  0.548 -0.067 -0.075  0.049
TIGERS       44 52 465 487 -0.012 48.188   25  0.356   25 -0.059   19 -0.052   25 0.4901  0.713  0.112 -0.216  0.030
PADRES       42 55 366 501  0.027 50.365   26  0.326   26 -0.073   29 -0.155   26 0.4865  0.460 -0.230 -0.080 -0.066
REDS         40 57 449 532  0.021 50.024   27  0.256   27 -0.101   24 -0.079   27 0.4792  0.712  0.085 -0.242  0.073
WHITE SOX    38 56 417 468 -0.004 47.534   28  0.181   28 -0.121   26 -0.088   28 0.4782  0.522 -0.107 -0.069  0.059
GIANTS       38 61 389 500  0.013 50.871   29  0.107   29 -0.141   30 -0.164   29 0.4748  0.587 -0.123 -0.206 -0.384
PHILLIES     33 62 379 459  0.023 49.086   30  0.000   30 -0.181   28 -0.114   30 0.4642  0.363 -0.273  0.045  0.099

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      67 31 501 328 -0.024 48.279    1  0.903    1  0.223    1  0.246    1 0.5422  0.350  0.076  0.417  0.002
DIAMONDBACKS 56 41 490 380 -0.015 48.241    4  0.560    5  0.090    3  0.130    5 0.5174  0.281 -0.097  0.358  0.356
ROCKIES      57 42 527 479 -0.002 49.877    5  0.557    4  0.096    7  0.070    4 0.5183  0.512  0.041  0.098  0.524
PADRES       42 55 366 501  0.027 50.365   26  0.326   26 -0.073   29 -0.155   26 0.4865  0.460 -0.230 -0.080 -0.066
GIANTS       38 61 389 500  0.013 50.871   29  0.107   29 -0.141   30 -0.164   29 0.4748  0.587 -0.123 -0.206 -0.384

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         50 46 450 429  0.002 48.631    7  0.432    7  0.027   12  0.017   10 0.5039  0.492 -0.029  0.064  0.098
BREWERS      53 47 484 448 -0.028 49.423    9  0.430    8  0.024   10  0.036   11 0.5030  0.472 -0.028  0.100  0.185
PIRATES      49 49 418 433  0.011 50.052   14  0.413   14  0.005   16 -0.018   17 0.4984  0.475 -0.080  0.044 -0.166
CARDINALS    47 50 440 418  0.008 49.296   18  0.401   18 -0.016    9  0.050   19 0.4952  0.490  0.001  0.098 -0.198
REDS         40 57 449 532  0.021 50.024   27  0.256   27 -0.101   24 -0.079   27 0.4792  0.712  0.085 -0.242  0.073

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    58 38 534 427 -0.047 46.613    3  0.610    3  0.108    5  0.108    3 0.5192  0.685  0.245 -0.029 -0.026
BRAVES       47 49 450 487 -0.023 47.814   20  0.392   20 -0.024   22 -0.069   20 0.4948  0.650  0.033 -0.171 -0.027
MARLINS      44 51 436 470  0.004 48.292   21  0.375   22 -0.044   18 -0.044   22 0.4903  0.721  0.129 -0.216 -0.234
METS         45 50 459 499 -0.019 47.443   22  0.374   21 -0.043   20 -0.057   23 0.4903  0.835  0.233 -0.348 -0.226
PHILLIES     33 62 379 459  0.023 49.086   30  0.000   30 -0.181   28 -0.114   30 0.4642  0.363 -0.273  0.045  0.099

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       65 32 574 403 -0.017 48.177    2  0.889    2  0.209    2  0.233    2 0.5410  0.930  0.628 -0.161 -0.472
MARINERS     49 50 469 474  0.013 50.589   15  0.410   15 -0.000   14  0.001   15 0.5004  0.632  0.086 -0.083 -0.117
ANGELS       48 51 404 423  0.032 51.375   16  0.408   16 -0.003   15 -0.013   14 0.5007  0.305 -0.220  0.194  0.003
RANGERS      47 50 472 462  0.011 49.451   17  0.403   17 -0.014   11  0.024   16 0.4989  0.580  0.058 -0.011  0.153
ATHLETICS    43 54 421 498  0.046 50.972   24  0.368   24 -0.049   23 -0.071   24 0.4902  0.548 -0.067 -0.075  0.049

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      50 45 452 378 -0.033 46.704   10  0.425   11  0.017    6  0.072    8 0.5056  0.356 -0.093  0.238  0.079
ROYALS       49 47 408 430 -0.005 48.439   12  0.419   12  0.011   17 -0.031   12 0.5027  0.420 -0.142  0.079 -0.012
TWINS        49 47 437 500 -0.004 48.488   13  0.417   13  0.010   21 -0.060   13 0.5025  0.571 -0.034 -0.086  0.205
TIGERS       44 52 465 487 -0.012 48.188   25  0.356   25 -0.059   19 -0.052   25 0.4901  0.713  0.112 -0.216  0.030
WHITE SOX    38 56 417 468 -0.004 47.534   28  0.181   28 -0.121   26 -0.088   28 0.4782  0.522 -0.107 -0.069  0.059

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      55 44 468 403 -0.023 49.089    6  0.470    6  0.059    8  0.064    6 0.5122  0.473  0.000  0.127 -0.139
YANKEES      50 46 511 409 -0.008 48.131    8  0.431    9  0.023    4  0.124    7 0.5067  0.508  0.092  0.157  0.226
RAYS         51 47 454 440 -0.014 49.022   11  0.424   10  0.018   13  0.006    9 0.5043  0.511 -0.023  0.035 -0.035
ORIOLES      46 51 448 524  0.028 50.305   19  0.396   19 -0.020   25 -0.088   18 0.4959  0.684  0.047 -0.223 -0.034
BLUE JAYS    44 53 400 483  0.024 50.111   23  0.371   23 -0.047   27 -0.090   21 0.4907  0.460 -0.165 -0.014 -0.003

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    252 237 0.515    1  0.056
NL WEST    260 230 0.531    2  0.042
AL EAST    246 241 0.505    3  0.006
NL CENTRAL 239 249 0.490    4  0.002
AL CENTRAL 230 247 0.482    5 -0.052
NL EAST    227 250 0.476    6 -0.058

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.068 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jul 23 05:30:19 2017
games through: Sat Jul 22 2017

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.