Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      112  56 912 673 -0.033 80.685    1  1.432    1  0.307    2  0.245    1 0.5372  0.515  0.269  0.221  0.144
ASTROS       107  60 830 549 -0.008 81.864    2  1.404    2  0.273    1  0.313    2 0.5346  0.318  0.165  0.460 -0.010
BREWERS      101  68 780 670  0.014 84.732    3  1.361    3  0.203    6  0.147    3 0.5247  0.418  0.084  0.209  0.009
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.034 80.274    4  1.343    4  0.189    4  0.194    4 0.5242  0.470  0.178  0.210  0.227
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.006 80.286    5  1.327    5  0.183    5  0.156    5 0.5232  0.669  0.327 -0.015 -0.284
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.005 81.643    6  1.269    6  0.159    7  0.133    6 0.5196  0.373  0.032  0.233  0.129
DODGERS       96  74 833 631  0.025 85.980    7  1.248    7  0.148    3  0.232    7 0.5191  0.553  0.292  0.173 -0.226
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.045 85.920    8  1.147    8  0.133   12  0.084    8 0.5163  0.399  0.006  0.163  0.451
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.551    9  1.032    9  0.108   17 -0.013    9 0.5134  0.541  0.036 -0.062 -0.286
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.010 82.987   10  1.005   10  0.101    8  0.107   10 0.5127  0.401  0.030  0.184  0.127
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.009 80.977   11  0.969   11  0.090   11  0.086   11 0.5114  0.614  0.204 -0.031 -0.153
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.028 78.521   12  0.957   12  0.085   14  0.063   12 0.5112  0.406 -0.009  0.136 -0.111
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.040 82.999   13  0.881   13  0.043   10  0.095   13 0.5055  0.330 -0.042  0.232  0.087
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.087 76.071   14  0.872   14  0.033    9  0.105   15 0.5030  0.365 -0.003  0.213  0.245
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.017 81.082   15  0.870   15  0.031   15  0.023   14 0.5039  0.537  0.067 -0.022 -0.200
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.003 80.261   16  0.858   16  0.011   13  0.071   16 0.5017  0.480  0.064  0.078  0.134
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.015 81.539   17  0.853   17 -0.000   16 -0.004   17 0.5009  0.505  0.011 -0.019 -0.021
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.010 81.236   18  0.851   18 -0.005   19 -0.034   18 0.4992  0.476 -0.045 -0.023 -0.023
METS          77  85 676 707  0.015 81.566   19  0.832   19 -0.037   18 -0.027   19 0.4956  0.700  0.174 -0.229 -0.597
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.057 84.306   20  0.814   20 -0.053   20 -0.058   20 0.4933  0.308 -0.213  0.097  0.005
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.071 76.192   21  0.731   21 -0.091   21 -0.089   22 0.4871  0.544 -0.037 -0.140  0.085
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.006 80.567   22  0.691   22 -0.102   25 -0.162   21 0.4877  0.649 -0.011 -0.314 -0.058
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.059 84.508   23  0.552   23 -0.136   24 -0.132   23 0.4829  0.411 -0.201 -0.064  0.053
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.038 83.191   24  0.545   24 -0.138   22 -0.118   24 0.4828  0.535 -0.075 -0.161  0.168
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.350   25  0.500   25 -0.151   23 -0.128   25 0.4825  0.429 -0.181 -0.076  0.537
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.038 82.779   26  0.413   26 -0.184   26 -0.216   26 0.4769  0.738  0.024 -0.456 -0.611
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.058 77.346   27  0.352   27 -0.252   27 -0.261   27 0.4672  0.464 -0.283 -0.239 -0.041
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.053 77.689   28  0.341   28 -0.272   28 -0.267   28 0.4648  0.556 -0.204 -0.329  0.002
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.055 77.556   29  0.284   29 -0.323   29 -0.270   29 0.4591  0.439 -0.314 -0.227  0.159
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.014 82.164   30  0.000   30 -0.407   30 -0.328   30 0.4519  0.513 -0.306 -0.350  0.059

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       96  74 833 631  0.025 85.980    7  1.248    7  0.148    3  0.232    7 0.5191  0.553  0.292  0.173 -0.226
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.045 85.920    8  1.147    8  0.133   12  0.084    8 0.5163  0.399  0.006  0.163  0.451
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.040 82.999   13  0.881   13  0.043   10  0.095   13 0.5055  0.330 -0.042  0.232  0.087
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.057 84.306   20  0.814   20 -0.053   20 -0.058   20 0.4933  0.308 -0.213  0.097  0.005
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.059 84.508   23  0.552   23 -0.136   24 -0.132   23 0.4829  0.411 -0.201 -0.064  0.053

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      101  68 780 670  0.014 84.732    3  1.361    3  0.203    6  0.147    3 0.5247  0.418  0.084  0.209  0.009
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.005 81.643    6  1.269    6  0.159    7  0.133    6 0.5196  0.373  0.032  0.233  0.129
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.009 80.977   11  0.969   11  0.090   11  0.086   11 0.5114  0.614  0.204 -0.031 -0.153
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.017 81.082   15  0.870   15  0.031   15  0.023   14 0.5039  0.537  0.067 -0.022 -0.200
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.038 83.191   24  0.545   24 -0.138   22 -0.118   24 0.4828  0.535 -0.075 -0.161  0.168

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.010 82.987   10  1.005   10  0.101    8  0.107   10 0.5127  0.401  0.030  0.184  0.127
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.003 80.261   16  0.858   16  0.011   13  0.071   16 0.5017  0.480  0.064  0.078  0.134
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.010 81.236   18  0.851   18 -0.005   19 -0.034   18 0.4992  0.476 -0.045 -0.023 -0.023
METS          77  85 676 707  0.015 81.566   19  0.832   19 -0.037   18 -0.027   19 0.4956  0.700  0.174 -0.229 -0.597
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.038 82.779   26  0.413   26 -0.184   26 -0.216   26 0.4769  0.738  0.024 -0.456 -0.611

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       107  60 830 549 -0.008 81.864    2  1.404    2  0.273    1  0.313    2 0.5346  0.318  0.165  0.460 -0.010
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.006 80.286    5  1.327    5  0.183    5  0.156    5 0.5232  0.669  0.327 -0.015 -0.284
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.015 81.551    9  1.032    9  0.108   17 -0.013    9 0.5134  0.541  0.036 -0.062 -0.286
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.015 81.539   17  0.853   17 -0.000   16 -0.004   17 0.5009  0.505  0.011 -0.019 -0.021
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.023 82.350   25  0.500   25 -0.151   23 -0.128   25 0.4825  0.429 -0.181 -0.076  0.537

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.087 76.071   14  0.872   14  0.033    9  0.105   15 0.5030  0.365 -0.003  0.213  0.245
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.071 76.192   21  0.731   21 -0.091   21 -0.089   22 0.4871  0.544 -0.037 -0.140  0.085
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.058 77.346   27  0.352   27 -0.252   27 -0.261   27 0.4672  0.464 -0.283 -0.239 -0.041
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.053 77.689   28  0.341   28 -0.272   28 -0.267   28 0.4648  0.556 -0.204 -0.329  0.002
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.055 77.556   29  0.284   29 -0.323   29 -0.270   29 0.4591  0.439 -0.314 -0.227  0.159

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      112  56 912 673 -0.033 80.685    1  1.432    1  0.307    2  0.245    1 0.5372  0.515  0.269  0.221  0.144
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.034 80.274    4  1.343    4  0.189    4  0.194    4 0.5242  0.470  0.178  0.210  0.227
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.028 78.521   12  0.957   12  0.085   14  0.063   12 0.5112  0.406 -0.009  0.136 -0.111
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.006 80.567   22  0.691   22 -0.102   25 -0.162   21 0.4877  0.649 -0.011 -0.314 -0.058
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.014 82.164   30  0.000   30 -0.407   30 -0.328   30 0.4519  0.513 -0.306 -0.350  0.059

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    440 376 0.539    1  0.076
NL CENTRAL 433 385 0.529    2  0.064
NL WEST    409 414 0.497    3  0.052
AL EAST    424 397 0.516    4  0.004
NL EAST    393 420 0.483    5 -0.023
AL CENTRAL 353 460 0.434    6 -0.186

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Oct 16 19:31:16 2018
games through: Mon Oct 15 2018

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