Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANGELS        98  67 779 645  0.032 84.950    1  0.558    1  0.126    2  0.132    1 0.5250  0.611  0.326 -0.061 -0.238
ORIOLES       99  70 738 621  0.024 86.524    2  0.476    2  0.114    3  0.111    2 0.5243  0.389  0.103  0.119 -0.042
ROYALS       100  77 720 680  0.023 90.602    3  0.370    3  0.089    6  0.058    3 0.5191  0.265 -0.053  0.169  0.080
NATIONALS     97  69 695 564 -0.041 80.696    4  0.351    4  0.080    4  0.098    4 0.5157  0.269 -0.010  0.206  0.022
ATHLETICS     88  75 737 581  0.030 83.791    5  0.330    6  0.061    1  0.136    6 0.5128  0.349  0.094  0.178  0.020
MARINERS      87  75 634 554  0.037 83.795    6  0.327    7  0.060    5  0.076    7 0.5117  0.361  0.043  0.108 -0.350
TIGERS        90  75 767 726  0.018 84.172    7  0.326    5  0.062    9  0.047    5 0.5140  0.583  0.214 -0.120  0.053
DODGERS       93  71 723 629 -0.057 78.715    8  0.321    8  0.052    7  0.057    8 0.5104  0.468  0.118 -0.004 -0.077
GIANTS       100  80 736 668 -0.041 87.597    9  0.318    9  0.047   10  0.029   10 0.5089  0.320 -0.038  0.096  0.011
CARDINALS     94  77 653 642 -0.030 83.957   10  0.317   10  0.044   14  0.006    9 0.5095  0.266 -0.105  0.117  0.068
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES       84  78 633 664  0.035 83.779   11  0.316   11  0.036   15  0.002   12 0.5082  0.411  0.012 -0.009 -0.100
INDIANS       85  77 669 653  0.014 82.387   12  0.315   12  0.034   11  0.024   11 0.5084  0.370 -0.001  0.049 -0.056
PIRATES       89  75 687 642 -0.039 79.954   13  0.314   13  0.031   13  0.014   13 0.5071  0.452  0.061 -0.033 -0.052
BLUE JAYS     83  79 723 686  0.029 83.291   14  0.313   14  0.027    8  0.049   14 0.5070  0.541  0.176 -0.079  0.045
BREWERS       82  80 650 657 -0.038 79.015   15  0.310   15 -0.012   17 -0.025   16 0.4979  0.412 -0.014 -0.037  0.027
RAYS          77  85 612 625  0.034 83.675   16  0.309   16 -0.014   12  0.014   15 0.4987  0.243 -0.115  0.143  0.003
METS          79  83 629 618 -0.025 79.945   17  0.308   18 -0.026   16 -0.014   17 0.4936  0.474  0.053 -0.080 -0.309
BRAVES        79  83 573 597 -0.023 80.094   18  0.307   17 -0.026   19 -0.038   18 0.4932  0.254 -0.158  0.082 -0.135
MARLINS       77  85 645 674 -0.023 80.126   19  0.305   19 -0.040   21 -0.044   21 0.4902  0.462  0.011 -0.100 -0.019
WHITE SOX     73  89 660 758  0.030 83.590   20  0.304   20 -0.044   24 -0.062   19 0.4920  0.440 -0.026 -0.098  0.162
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PADRES        77  85 535 577 -0.040 79.065   21  0.303   21 -0.048   26 -0.071   23 0.4890  0.176 -0.252  0.111 -0.283
RED SOX       71  91 634 715  0.047 84.632   22  0.302   22 -0.051   23 -0.050   20 0.4905  0.363 -0.081 -0.020  0.147
REDS          76  86 595 612 -0.034 79.354   23  0.301   23 -0.052   18 -0.034   22 0.4902  0.283 -0.131  0.063 -0.056
ASTROS        70  92 629 723  0.058 85.391   24  0.300   24 -0.053   22 -0.049   25 0.4880  0.474  0.018 -0.115 -0.003
PHILLIES      73  89 619 687 -0.012 80.866   25  0.293   25 -0.064   25 -0.065   27 0.4856  0.503  0.027 -0.157 -0.198
TWINS         70  92 715 777  0.030 83.553   26  0.291   26 -0.066   20 -0.043   24 0.4882  0.525  0.070 -0.156  0.241
CUBS          74  90 619 712 -0.027 80.870   27  0.286   27 -0.071   28 -0.086   26 0.4860  0.486 -0.009 -0.163 -0.119
RANGERS       67  95 637 773  0.063 85.706   28  0.283   28 -0.072   27 -0.072   28 0.4838  0.518  0.034 -0.179  0.077
ROCKIES       66  96 755 818 -0.042 78.901   29  0.045   29 -0.128   29 -0.090   29 0.4732  0.411 -0.080 -0.100  0.742
DIAMONDBACKS  64  96 609 732 -0.032 78.620   30  0.000   30 -0.132   30 -0.135   30 0.4717  0.300 -0.218 -0.053  0.338

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       93  71 723 629 -0.057 78.715    8  0.321    8  0.052    7  0.057    8 0.5104  0.468  0.118 -0.004 -0.077
GIANTS       100  80 736 668 -0.041 87.597    9  0.318    9  0.047   10  0.029   10 0.5089  0.320 -0.038  0.096  0.011
PADRES        77  85 535 577 -0.040 79.065   21  0.303   21 -0.048   26 -0.071   23 0.4890  0.176 -0.252  0.111 -0.283
ROCKIES       66  96 755 818 -0.042 78.901   29  0.045   29 -0.128   29 -0.090   29 0.4732  0.411 -0.080 -0.100  0.742
DIAMONDBACKS  64  96 609 732 -0.032 78.620   30  0.000   30 -0.132   30 -0.135   30 0.4717  0.300 -0.218 -0.053  0.338

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS     94  77 653 642 -0.030 83.957   10  0.317   10  0.044   14  0.006    9 0.5095  0.266 -0.105  0.117  0.068
PIRATES       89  75 687 642 -0.039 79.954   13  0.314   13  0.031   13  0.014   13 0.5071  0.452  0.061 -0.033 -0.052
BREWERS       82  80 650 657 -0.038 79.015   15  0.310   15 -0.012   17 -0.025   16 0.4979  0.412 -0.014 -0.037  0.027
REDS          76  86 595 612 -0.034 79.354   23  0.301   23 -0.052   18 -0.034   22 0.4902  0.283 -0.131  0.063 -0.056
CUBS          74  90 619 712 -0.027 80.870   27  0.286   27 -0.071   28 -0.086   26 0.4860  0.486 -0.009 -0.163 -0.119

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS     97  69 695 564 -0.041 80.696    4  0.351    4  0.080    4  0.098    4 0.5157  0.269 -0.010  0.206  0.022
METS          79  83 629 618 -0.025 79.945   17  0.308   18 -0.026   16 -0.014   17 0.4936  0.474  0.053 -0.080 -0.309
BRAVES        79  83 573 597 -0.023 80.094   18  0.307   17 -0.026   19 -0.038   18 0.4932  0.254 -0.158  0.082 -0.135
MARLINS       77  85 645 674 -0.023 80.126   19  0.305   19 -0.040   21 -0.044   21 0.4902  0.462  0.011 -0.100 -0.019
PHILLIES      73  89 619 687 -0.012 80.866   25  0.293   25 -0.064   25 -0.065   27 0.4856  0.503  0.027 -0.157 -0.198

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANGELS        98  67 779 645  0.032 84.950    1  0.558    1  0.126    2  0.132    1 0.5250  0.611  0.326 -0.061 -0.238
ATHLETICS     88  75 737 581  0.030 83.791    5  0.330    6  0.061    1  0.136    6 0.5128  0.349  0.094  0.178  0.020
MARINERS      87  75 634 554  0.037 83.795    6  0.327    7  0.060    5  0.076    7 0.5117  0.361  0.043  0.108 -0.350
ASTROS        70  92 629 723  0.058 85.391   24  0.300   24 -0.053   22 -0.049   25 0.4880  0.474  0.018 -0.115 -0.003
RANGERS       67  95 637 773  0.063 85.706   28  0.283   28 -0.072   27 -0.072   28 0.4838  0.518  0.034 -0.179  0.077

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROYALS       100  77 720 680  0.023 90.602    3  0.370    3  0.089    6  0.058    3 0.5191  0.265 -0.053  0.169  0.080
TIGERS        90  75 767 726  0.018 84.172    7  0.326    5  0.062    9  0.047    5 0.5140  0.583  0.214 -0.120  0.053
INDIANS       85  77 669 653  0.014 82.387   12  0.315   12  0.034   11  0.024   11 0.5084  0.370 -0.001  0.049 -0.056
WHITE SOX     73  89 660 758  0.030 83.590   20  0.304   20 -0.044   24 -0.062   19 0.4920  0.440 -0.026 -0.098  0.162
TWINS         70  92 715 777  0.030 83.553   26  0.291   26 -0.066   20 -0.043   24 0.4882  0.525  0.070 -0.156  0.241

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORIOLES       99  70 738 621  0.024 86.524    2  0.476    2  0.114    3  0.111    2 0.5243  0.389  0.103  0.119 -0.042
YANKEES       84  78 633 664  0.035 83.779   11  0.316   11  0.036   15  0.002   12 0.5082  0.411  0.012 -0.009 -0.100
BLUE JAYS     83  79 723 686  0.029 83.291   14  0.313   14  0.027    8  0.049   14 0.5070  0.541  0.176 -0.079  0.045
RAYS          77  85 612 625  0.034 83.675   16  0.309   16 -0.014   12  0.014   15 0.4987  0.243 -0.115  0.143  0.003
RED SOX       71  91 634 715  0.047 84.632   22  0.302   22 -0.051   23 -0.050   20 0.4905  0.363 -0.081 -0.020  0.147

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    410 404 0.504    1  0.078
AL EAST    414 403 0.507    2  0.044
AL CENTRAL 418 410 0.505    3  0.008
NL EAST    405 409 0.498    4 -0.022
NL CENTRAL 415 408 0.504    5 -0.043
NL WEST    400 428 0.483    6 -0.073

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.064 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.008 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Oct 30 07:30:31 2014
games through: Wed Oct 29 2014

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.