Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        14 12  99  78  0.129 14.212   11  0.096   12  0.092    3  0.237    9 0.5231    4  1.265    1  0.483   19 -0.009
CAPITALS         19  8 109  74  0.089 14.224    1  0.245    1  0.249    1  0.286    1 0.5566    5  1.228    2  0.482   12  0.089
PANTHERS         18 11 108  92  0.052 15.095    6  0.157    6  0.157    9  0.139    6 0.5346    3  1.308    3  0.442   26 -0.164
BLUE JACKETS     12 16  96 101 -0.002 14.196   23 -0.075   23 -0.075   18 -0.037   23 0.4849    1  1.373    4  0.355   32 -0.430
HURRICANES       18 10 104  83  0.022 14.197    5  0.164    5  0.166    7  0.173    5 0.5395    7  1.215    5  0.354   18 -0.007
AVALANCHE        17 13 101 105  0.041 15.671   12  0.086   11  0.096   14  0.008   11 0.5189    2  1.324    6  0.333   30 -0.317
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   18 10  99  82  0.059 14.633    4  0.178    4  0.182    8  0.161    4 0.5414    9  1.177    7  0.292   16  0.029
JETS             21  9 111  76  0.040 15.315    2  0.240    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5520   15  1.101    8  0.276    5  0.203
STARS            17 10  92  69  0.021 13.545    7  0.147    7  0.145    4  0.204    7 0.5325   18  1.070    9  0.203    4  0.205
DEVILS           18 13 103  84  0.063 16.208    9  0.124    9  0.120    6  0.174   10 0.5222   19  1.054   10  0.153    6  0.194
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS          14 13  88  87 -0.065 12.922   16 -0.013   16 -0.007   13  0.009   17 0.4960    8  1.178   11  0.142   24 -0.123
RANGERS          15 13  89  83 -0.086 13.135   15 -0.001   15  0.003   12  0.031   15 0.4987   12  1.137   12  0.112   20 -0.050
SENATORS         13 15  87  87 -0.037 13.742   20 -0.056   20 -0.052   15 -0.006   22 0.4863   11  1.158   13  0.102   23 -0.113
KINGS            17 11  86  72 -0.041 13.543   10  0.104   10  0.099   10  0.128   12 0.5184   22  0.983   14  0.023    3  0.233
WILD             19  9  91  69  0.016 14.093    3  0.197    3  0.202    5  0.192    3 0.5425   26  0.909   15  0.003    1  0.380
SABRES           11 18  87  95 -0.045 14.238   27 -0.149   27 -0.150   22 -0.089   27 0.4632   13  1.131   16 -0.015   25 -0.162
FLYERS           13 16  88 101 -0.003 14.776   21 -0.059   21 -0.054   23 -0.102   18 0.4910   14  1.123   17 -0.038   27 -0.166
PENGUINS         12 18  86 116 -0.002 15.459   24 -0.111   24 -0.106   32 -0.221   24 0.4777    6  1.217   18 -0.038   31 -0.404
CANADIENS        11 17  78 100 -0.057 13.717   25 -0.140   25 -0.138   28 -0.159   25 0.4708   10  1.163   19 -0.046   29 -0.271
KRAKEN           14 16  90  90 -0.027 14.924   19 -0.053   19 -0.046   19 -0.058   20 0.4892   17  1.074   20 -0.055   22 -0.062
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 12 16  83  84  0.012 14.348   22 -0.071   22 -0.071   17 -0.030   21 0.4874   20  1.016   21 -0.095   14  0.036
OILERS           16 12  84  80 -0.018 13.977   13  0.066   13  0.073   16 -0.013   13 0.5140   23  0.982   22 -0.118   11  0.092
MAPLE LEAFS      17 11  82  72  0.025 14.298    8  0.132    8  0.130   11  0.087    8 0.5294   29  0.873   23 -0.141    2  0.315
SHARKS           10 21  84 111  0.039 16.437   30 -0.184   30 -0.180   29 -0.164   29 0.4612   16  1.080   24 -0.154   28 -0.174
BLUES            14 15  77  90  0.047 15.322   14 -0.000   14  0.006   21 -0.066   14 0.5037   24  0.963   25 -0.194   13  0.061
RED WINGS        11 17  73  88 -0.109 13.083   28 -0.162   28 -0.160   26 -0.156   30 0.4603   21  0.983   26 -0.260   21 -0.052
FLAMES           14 15  78  87 -0.052 14.138   18 -0.046   18 -0.038   20 -0.065   19 0.4906   28  0.889   27 -0.275    7  0.145
BLACKHAWKS        9 19  68  87  0.008 14.473   31 -0.187   31 -0.185   25 -0.150   31 0.4583   25  0.933   28 -0.312   17  0.011
ISLANDERS        11 19  78  90 -0.047 14.757   29 -0.170   29 -0.167   24 -0.119   28 0.4627   30  0.858   29 -0.364    8  0.125
BRUINS           15 15  76  95 -0.064 14.613   17 -0.035   17 -0.025   30 -0.172   16 0.4963   27  0.891   30 -0.380   15  0.035
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS            10 17  65  84 -0.028 13.538   26 -0.148   26 -0.145   27 -0.157   26 0.4633   31  0.845   31 -0.414   10  0.101
PREDATORS         7 22  64  92  0.017 15.153   32 -0.273   32 -0.277   31 -0.203   32 0.4414   32  0.796   32 -0.513    9  0.107

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   18 10  99  82  0.059 14.633    4  0.178    4  0.182    8  0.161    4 0.5414    9  1.177    7  0.292   16  0.029
CANUCKS          14 13  88  87 -0.065 12.922   16 -0.013   16 -0.007   13  0.009   17 0.4960    8  1.178   11  0.142   24 -0.123
KINGS            17 11  86  72 -0.041 13.543   10  0.104   10  0.099   10  0.128   12 0.5184   22  0.983   14  0.023    3  0.233
KRAKEN           14 16  90  90 -0.027 14.924   19 -0.053   19 -0.046   19 -0.058   20 0.4892   17  1.074   20 -0.055   22 -0.062
OILERS           16 12  84  80 -0.018 13.977   13  0.066   13  0.073   16 -0.013   13 0.5140   23  0.982   22 -0.118   11  0.092
SHARKS           10 21  84 111  0.039 16.437   30 -0.184   30 -0.180   29 -0.164   29 0.4612   16  1.080   24 -0.154   28 -0.174
FLAMES           14 15  78  87 -0.052 14.138   18 -0.046   18 -0.038   20 -0.065   19 0.4906   28  0.889   27 -0.275    7  0.145
DUCKS            10 17  65  84 -0.028 13.538   26 -0.148   26 -0.145   27 -0.157   26 0.4633   31  0.845   31 -0.414   10  0.101

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE        17 13 101 105  0.041 15.671   12  0.086   11  0.096   14  0.008   11 0.5189    2  1.324    6  0.333   30 -0.317
JETS             21  9 111  76  0.040 15.315    2  0.240    2  0.243    2  0.239    2 0.5520   15  1.101    8  0.276    5  0.203
STARS            17 10  92  69  0.021 13.545    7  0.147    7  0.145    4  0.204    7 0.5325   18  1.070    9  0.203    4  0.205
WILD             19  9  91  69  0.016 14.093    3  0.197    3  0.202    5  0.192    3 0.5425   26  0.909   15  0.003    1  0.380
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 12 16  83  84  0.012 14.348   22 -0.071   22 -0.071   17 -0.030   21 0.4874   20  1.016   21 -0.095   14  0.036
BLUES            14 15  77  90  0.047 15.322   14 -0.000   14  0.006   21 -0.066   14 0.5037   24  0.963   25 -0.194   13  0.061
BLACKHAWKS        9 19  68  87  0.008 14.473   31 -0.187   31 -0.185   25 -0.150   31 0.4583   25  0.933   28 -0.312   17  0.011
PREDATORS         7 22  64  92  0.017 15.153   32 -0.273   32 -0.277   31 -0.203   32 0.4414   32  0.796   32 -0.513    9  0.107

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         19  8 109  74  0.089 14.224    1  0.245    1  0.249    1  0.286    1 0.5566    5  1.228    2  0.482   12  0.089
BLUE JACKETS     12 16  96 101 -0.002 14.196   23 -0.075   23 -0.075   18 -0.037   23 0.4849    1  1.373    4  0.355   32 -0.430
HURRICANES       18 10 104  83  0.022 14.197    5  0.164    5  0.166    7  0.173    5 0.5395    7  1.215    5  0.354   18 -0.007
DEVILS           18 13 103  84  0.063 16.208    9  0.124    9  0.120    6  0.174   10 0.5222   19  1.054   10  0.153    6  0.194
RANGERS          15 13  89  83 -0.086 13.135   15 -0.001   15  0.003   12  0.031   15 0.4987   12  1.137   12  0.112   20 -0.050
FLYERS           13 16  88 101 -0.003 14.776   21 -0.059   21 -0.054   23 -0.102   18 0.4910   14  1.123   17 -0.038   27 -0.166
PENGUINS         12 18  86 116 -0.002 15.459   24 -0.111   24 -0.106   32 -0.221   24 0.4777    6  1.217   18 -0.038   31 -0.404
ISLANDERS        11 19  78  90 -0.047 14.757   29 -0.170   29 -0.167   24 -0.119   28 0.4627   30  0.858   29 -0.364    8  0.125

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        14 12  99  78  0.129 14.212   11  0.096   12  0.092    3  0.237    9 0.5231    4  1.265    1  0.483   19 -0.009
PANTHERS         18 11 108  92  0.052 15.095    6  0.157    6  0.157    9  0.139    6 0.5346    3  1.308    3  0.442   26 -0.164
SENATORS         13 15  87  87 -0.037 13.742   20 -0.056   20 -0.052   15 -0.006   22 0.4863   11  1.158   13  0.102   23 -0.113
SABRES           11 18  87  95 -0.045 14.238   27 -0.149   27 -0.150   22 -0.089   27 0.4632   13  1.131   16 -0.015   25 -0.162
CANADIENS        11 17  78 100 -0.057 13.717   25 -0.140   25 -0.138   28 -0.159   25 0.4708   10  1.163   19 -0.046   29 -0.271
MAPLE LEAFS      17 11  82  72  0.025 14.298    8  0.132    8  0.130   11  0.087    8 0.5294   29  0.873   23 -0.141    2  0.315
RED WINGS        11 17  73  88 -0.109 13.083   28 -0.162   28 -0.160   26 -0.156   30 0.4603   21  0.983   26 -0.260   21 -0.052
BRUINS           15 15  76  95 -0.064 14.613   17 -0.035   17 -0.025   30 -0.172   16 0.4963   27  0.891   30 -0.380   15  0.035

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      116 113 0.507    1  0.041
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 118 113 0.511    2  0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION     110 116 0.487    3 -0.029
PACIFIC DIVISION      113 115 0.496    4 -0.039

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Dec 12 05:30:08 2024
games through: Wed Dec 11 2024

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