Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS            25 17 126 101  0.007 21.106    8  0.113    8  0.116    6  0.168    8 0.5229   32  0.866   20 -0.052    1  0.389
JETS             31 15 164 110 -0.015 22.583    2  0.215    2  0.213    1  0.272    2 0.5411   20  1.018    6  0.223    2  0.321
DEVILS           26 21 146 120  0.026 23.995   13  0.082   13  0.080    7  0.167   13 0.5140   26  0.929   17  0.016    3  0.318
STARS            28 16 141 108 -0.019 21.602    5  0.157    5  0.159    5  0.175    5 0.5303   24  0.956   13  0.054    4  0.296
CAPITALS         30 15 160 113  0.034 22.987    1  0.224    1  0.222    2  0.263    1 0.5427   18  1.042    5  0.242    5  0.283
SENATORS         22 22 124 121  0.003 22.217   15  0.004   15  0.001   13  0.034   15 0.5006   28  0.917   24 -0.131    6  0.199
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.028 23.114    7  0.133    7  0.140   10  0.067    7 0.5264   23  0.979   18 -0.027    7  0.161
FLAMES           21 23 117 131 -0.045 21.498   20 -0.046   20 -0.049   21 -0.074   20 0.4884   29  0.904   28 -0.253    8  0.105
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 15 151 119  0.009 22.110    3  0.202    3  0.201    4  0.183    3 0.5394    9  1.133    3  0.274    9  0.092
OILERS           29 16 149 123 -0.016 22.281    4  0.170    4  0.173    9  0.115    4 0.5344   15  1.078    9  0.138   10  0.092
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES       26 19 149 127  0.008 22.690   10  0.098   10  0.101    8  0.127   11 0.5187   14  1.097    7  0.173   11  0.081
BLUES            22 24 131 135  0.001 23.251   17 -0.022   17 -0.026   16 -0.011   18 0.4941   22  0.986   23 -0.098   12  0.076
PREDATORS        15 29 109 137  0.060 23.426   30 -0.174   30 -0.168   24 -0.111   30 0.4689   30  0.900   31 -0.295   13  0.073
MAPLE LEAFS      28 18 140 131  0.012 23.367    6  0.138    6  0.145   12  0.045    6 0.5265   17  1.045   14  0.028   14  0.062
DUCKS            18 27 111 142  0.034 23.567   24 -0.104   24 -0.105   29 -0.158   25 0.4792   31  0.878   32 -0.366   15  0.050
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.003 23.313   19 -0.027   19 -0.028   26 -0.119   17 0.4956   27  0.926   30 -0.273   16  0.036
LIGHTNING        24 19 157 122  0.044 22.186   11  0.092   12  0.091    3  0.220   10 0.5190    4  1.225    1  0.427   17  0.012
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 26 123 135 -0.003 22.283   25 -0.112   25 -0.113   23 -0.087   23 0.4799   21  1.002   25 -0.154   18 -0.019
ISLANDERS        17 27 117 136 -0.041 21.671   29 -0.163   29 -0.158   28 -0.146   29 0.4696   25  0.955   29 -0.268   19 -0.024
CANUCKS          19 25 126 141 -0.034 21.712   23 -0.097   23 -0.100   19 -0.071   24 0.4796   19  1.039   22 -0.094   20 -0.047
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS          21 23 129 137  0.001 22.256   18 -0.025   18 -0.027   18 -0.022   19 0.4940   13  1.099   15  0.027   21 -0.070
PANTHERS         26 20 150 142  0.021 23.583   12  0.087   11  0.093   14  0.022   12 0.5177    7  1.168    8  0.156   22 -0.113
CANADIENS        22 22 134 144  0.003 22.285   14  0.004   14  0.002   17 -0.018   14 0.5015    8  1.148   12  0.092   23 -0.127
AVALANCHE        27 19 153 144  0.008 23.296    9  0.108    9  0.114   11  0.048    9 0.5203    3  1.226    4  0.256   24 -0.161
RED WINGS        21 23 129 141 -0.078 20.952   21 -0.061   21 -0.064   25 -0.112   21 0.4859   10  1.110   19 -0.051   25 -0.173
KRAKEN           19 27 133 148 -0.018 23.062   26 -0.118   26 -0.119   27 -0.130   26 0.4771   11  1.107   21 -0.072   26 -0.188
SHARKS           14 33 121 165  0.027 24.557   31 -0.246   31 -0.242   31 -0.219   31 0.4532   16  1.062   27 -0.216   27 -0.222
FLYERS           20 26 143 160 -0.012 23.105   22 -0.084   22 -0.088   22 -0.085   22 0.4852    6  1.206   11  0.097   28 -0.267
SABRES           17 27 136 148 -0.009 22.143   28 -0.145   28 -0.143   20 -0.073   28 0.4720    5  1.216   10  0.122   29 -0.269
BLACKHAWKS       14 31 115 155 -0.023 22.588   32 -0.248   32 -0.244   32 -0.223   32 0.4528   12  1.105   26 -0.168   30 -0.278
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS     22 23 156 154 -0.017 22.420   16 -0.016   16 -0.021   15 -0.007   16 0.4964    1  1.314    2  0.319   31 -0.333
PENGUINS         18 28 137 173 -0.004 23.428   27 -0.140   27 -0.137   30 -0.210   27 0.4739    2  1.243   16  0.021   32 -0.441

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS            25 17 126 101  0.007 21.106    8  0.113    8  0.116    6  0.168    8 0.5229   32  0.866   20 -0.052    1  0.389
FLAMES           21 23 117 131 -0.045 21.498   20 -0.046   20 -0.049   21 -0.074   20 0.4884   29  0.904   28 -0.253    8  0.105
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 15 151 119  0.009 22.110    3  0.202    3  0.201    4  0.183    3 0.5394    9  1.133    3  0.274    9  0.092
OILERS           29 16 149 123 -0.016 22.281    4  0.170    4  0.173    9  0.115    4 0.5344   15  1.078    9  0.138   10  0.092
DUCKS            18 27 111 142  0.034 23.567   24 -0.104   24 -0.105   29 -0.158   25 0.4792   31  0.878   32 -0.366   15  0.050
CANUCKS          19 25 126 141 -0.034 21.712   23 -0.097   23 -0.100   19 -0.071   24 0.4796   19  1.039   22 -0.094   20 -0.047
KRAKEN           19 27 133 148 -0.018 23.062   26 -0.118   26 -0.119   27 -0.130   26 0.4771   11  1.107   21 -0.072   26 -0.188
SHARKS           14 33 121 165  0.027 24.557   31 -0.246   31 -0.242   31 -0.219   31 0.4532   16  1.062   27 -0.216   27 -0.222

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             31 15 164 110 -0.015 22.583    2  0.215    2  0.213    1  0.272    2 0.5411   20  1.018    6  0.223    2  0.321
STARS            28 16 141 108 -0.019 21.602    5  0.157    5  0.159    5  0.175    5 0.5303   24  0.956   13  0.054    4  0.296
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.028 23.114    7  0.133    7  0.140   10  0.067    7 0.5264   23  0.979   18 -0.027    7  0.161
BLUES            22 24 131 135  0.001 23.251   17 -0.022   17 -0.026   16 -0.011   18 0.4941   22  0.986   23 -0.098   12  0.076
PREDATORS        15 29 109 137  0.060 23.426   30 -0.174   30 -0.168   24 -0.111   30 0.4689   30  0.900   31 -0.295   13  0.073
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 26 123 135 -0.003 22.283   25 -0.112   25 -0.113   23 -0.087   23 0.4799   21  1.002   25 -0.154   18 -0.019
AVALANCHE        27 19 153 144  0.008 23.296    9  0.108    9  0.114   11  0.048    9 0.5203    3  1.226    4  0.256   24 -0.161
BLACKHAWKS       14 31 115 155 -0.023 22.588   32 -0.248   32 -0.244   32 -0.223   32 0.4528   12  1.105   26 -0.168   30 -0.278

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DEVILS           26 21 146 120  0.026 23.995   13  0.082   13  0.080    7  0.167   13 0.5140   26  0.929   17  0.016    3  0.318
CAPITALS         30 15 160 113  0.034 22.987    1  0.224    1  0.222    2  0.263    1 0.5427   18  1.042    5  0.242    5  0.283
HURRICANES       26 19 149 127  0.008 22.690   10  0.098   10  0.101    8  0.127   11 0.5187   14  1.097    7  0.173   11  0.081
ISLANDERS        17 27 117 136 -0.041 21.671   29 -0.163   29 -0.158   28 -0.146   29 0.4696   25  0.955   29 -0.268   19 -0.024
RANGERS          21 23 129 137  0.001 22.256   18 -0.025   18 -0.027   18 -0.022   19 0.4940   13  1.099   15  0.027   21 -0.070
FLYERS           20 26 143 160 -0.012 23.105   22 -0.084   22 -0.088   22 -0.085   22 0.4852    6  1.206   11  0.097   28 -0.267
BLUE JACKETS     22 23 156 154 -0.017 22.420   16 -0.016   16 -0.021   15 -0.007   16 0.4964    1  1.314    2  0.319   31 -0.333
PENGUINS         18 28 137 173 -0.004 23.428   27 -0.140   27 -0.137   30 -0.210   27 0.4739    2  1.243   16  0.021   32 -0.441

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SENATORS         22 22 124 121  0.003 22.217   15  0.004   15  0.001   13  0.034   15 0.5006   28  0.917   24 -0.131    6  0.199
MAPLE LEAFS      28 18 140 131  0.012 23.367    6  0.138    6  0.145   12  0.045    6 0.5265   17  1.045   14  0.028   14  0.062
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.003 23.313   19 -0.027   19 -0.028   26 -0.119   17 0.4956   27  0.926   30 -0.273   16  0.036
LIGHTNING        24 19 157 122  0.044 22.186   11  0.092   12  0.091    3  0.220   10 0.5190    4  1.225    1  0.427   17  0.012
PANTHERS         26 20 150 142  0.021 23.583   12  0.087   11  0.093   14  0.022   12 0.5177    7  1.168    8  0.156   22 -0.113
CANADIENS        22 22 134 144  0.003 22.285   14  0.004   14  0.002   17 -0.018   14 0.5015    8  1.148   12  0.092   23 -0.127
RED WINGS        21 23 129 141 -0.078 20.952   21 -0.061   21 -0.064   25 -0.112   21 0.4859   10  1.110   19 -0.051   25 -0.173
SABRES           17 27 136 148 -0.009 22.143   28 -0.145   28 -0.143   20 -0.073   28 0.4720    5  1.216   10  0.122   29 -0.269

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      182 178 0.506    1  0.025
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 180 182 0.497    2  0.017
ATLANTIC DIVISION     182 175 0.510    3 -0.001
PACIFIC DIVISION      174 183 0.487    4 -0.038

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.069 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jan 17 05:30:11 2025
games through: Thu Jan 16 2025

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