Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY RANGERS   33 17 141 102 -0.005 24.994    2  0.782    2  0.158    3  0.171    1 0.5380  0.686 -0.115  0.456  0.000
DETROIT      35 19 172 129  0.021 27.509    1  0.798    1  0.165    2  0.184    2 0.5371  1.025  0.266  0.102  0.000
BOSTON       33 18 180 111 -0.041 24.665    3  0.721    3  0.132    1  0.231    3 0.5299  1.018  0.304  0.157  0.000
VANCOUVER    32 20 167 130  0.016 26.475    4  0.701    4  0.125    4  0.149    4 0.5278  1.054  0.265  0.032  0.000
ST. LOUIS    30 21 126 105  0.006 25.773    6  0.623    6  0.093    5  0.128    5 0.5222  0.589 -0.251  0.507  0.000
NASHVILLE    32 21 149 136 -0.022 26.296    5  0.628    5  0.098   10  0.050    6 0.5214  0.943  0.037  0.063  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 30 22 173 156  0.003 26.296    7  0.589    7  0.079    8  0.076    7 0.5194  1.267  0.460 -0.309  0.000
PITTSBURGH   30 23 161 138  0.012 26.994    9  0.577    9  0.075    7  0.078    8 0.5181  1.012  0.146  0.011  0.000
SAN JOSE     29 21 145 117 -0.012 24.910    8  0.584    8  0.076    6  0.107    9 0.5175  0.875  0.018  0.195  0.000
NEW JERSEY   30 22 149 148 -0.015 26.087   10  0.566   10  0.074   15 -0.021   10 0.5173  1.022  0.057 -0.099  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      29 24 169 158 -0.031 26.174   11  0.501   11  0.037   11  0.016   11 0.5067  1.213  0.330 -0.298  0.000
DALLAS       27 24 136 144 -0.012 25.706   12  0.482   12  0.026   20 -0.046   12 0.5054  1.030  0.042 -0.135  0.000
TORONTO      28 25 167 155 -0.015 26.457   13  0.481   13  0.024    9  0.050   13 0.5049  1.176  0.317 -0.217  0.000
WASHINGTON   27 25 145 149 -0.015 26.078   14  0.467   14  0.015   13 -0.011   14 0.5039  1.028  0.075 -0.096  0.000
OTTAWA       27 28 161 171  0.009 28.157   15  0.439   15 -0.005   18 -0.035   15 0.4983  1.129  0.172 -0.243  0.000
MINNESOTA    25 27 121 133  0.016 26.763   16  0.428   16 -0.013   16 -0.030   16 0.4973  0.712 -0.290  0.229  0.000
COLORADO     26 28 135 151  0.011 27.766   17  0.421   17 -0.014   25 -0.088   17 0.4970  0.901 -0.147 -0.028  0.000
FLORIDA      24 27 131 145  0.002 25.978   18  0.401   18 -0.028   19 -0.040   18 0.4951  0.888 -0.114  0.035  0.000
CALGARY      24 29 126 144  0.024 27.502   20  0.386   20 -0.038   21 -0.055   19 0.4915  0.833 -0.189  0.079  0.000
LOS ANGELES  25 28 115 116 -0.018 26.506   19  0.391   19 -0.036   14 -0.011   20 0.4911  0.457 -0.508  0.486  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX      24 29 139 142  0.018 27.263   21  0.382   21 -0.041   12  0.000   21 0.4906  0.922 -0.037  0.037  0.000
TAMPA BAY    23 28 147 173 -0.014 25.755   22  0.358   22 -0.054   27 -0.102   22 0.4875  1.222  0.224 -0.428  0.000
WINNIPEG     24 30 129 150 -0.003 27.472   23  0.353   23 -0.059   24 -0.087   23 0.4862  0.815 -0.240  0.066  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 21 30 125 150  0.002 26.089   25  0.292   25 -0.088   28 -0.109   24 0.4803  0.881 -0.191 -0.027  0.000
BUFFALO      22 30 126 154 -0.020 26.140   24  0.294   24 -0.086   29 -0.122   25 0.4791  0.886 -0.199 -0.046  0.000
EDMONTON     21 32 141 158  0.022 27.463   26  0.270   26 -0.098   22 -0.061   26 0.4782  1.083  0.090 -0.212  0.000
MONTREAL     20 33 137 145  0.018 27.316   27  0.219   27 -0.119   17 -0.030   27 0.4722  0.886 -0.106  0.045  0.000
ANAHEIM      20 32 135 156 -0.006 26.385   28  0.218   28 -0.119   23 -0.081   28 0.4716  1.064  0.048 -0.210  0.000
CAROLINA     20 34 137 165 -0.006 27.426   29  0.175   29 -0.135   26 -0.094   29 0.4696  0.978 -0.067 -0.122  0.000
COLUMBUS     14 38 120 174  0.031 27.351   30  0.000   30 -0.225   30 -0.190   30 0.4484  1.011 -0.125 -0.256  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE     29 21 145 117 -0.012 24.910    8  0.584    8  0.076    6  0.107    9 0.5175  0.875  0.018  0.195  0.000
DALLAS       27 24 136 144 -0.012 25.706   12  0.482   12  0.026   20 -0.046   12 0.5054  1.030  0.042 -0.135  0.000
LOS ANGELES  25 28 115 116 -0.018 26.506   19  0.391   19 -0.036   14 -0.011   20 0.4911  0.457 -0.508  0.486  0.000
PHOENIX      24 29 139 142  0.018 27.263   21  0.382   21 -0.041   12  0.000   21 0.4906  0.922 -0.037  0.037  0.000
ANAHEIM      20 32 135 156 -0.006 26.385   28  0.218   28 -0.119   23 -0.081   28 0.4716  1.064  0.048 -0.210  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    32 20 167 130  0.016 26.475    4  0.701    4  0.125    4  0.149    4 0.5278  1.054  0.265  0.032  0.000
MINNESOTA    25 27 121 133  0.016 26.763   16  0.428   16 -0.013   16 -0.030   16 0.4973  0.712 -0.290  0.229  0.000
COLORADO     26 28 135 151  0.011 27.766   17  0.421   17 -0.014   25 -0.088   17 0.4970  0.901 -0.147 -0.028  0.000
CALGARY      24 29 126 144  0.024 27.502   20  0.386   20 -0.038   21 -0.055   19 0.4915  0.833 -0.189  0.079  0.000
EDMONTON     21 32 141 158  0.022 27.463   26  0.270   26 -0.098   22 -0.061   26 0.4782  1.083  0.090 -0.212  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT      35 19 172 129  0.021 27.509    1  0.798    1  0.165    2  0.184    2 0.5371  1.025  0.266  0.102  0.000
ST. LOUIS    30 21 126 105  0.006 25.773    6  0.623    6  0.093    5  0.128    5 0.5222  0.589 -0.251  0.507  0.000
NASHVILLE    32 21 149 136 -0.022 26.296    5  0.628    5  0.098   10  0.050    6 0.5214  0.943  0.037  0.063  0.000
CHICAGO      29 24 169 158 -0.031 26.174   11  0.501   11  0.037   11  0.016   11 0.5067  1.213  0.330 -0.298  0.000
COLUMBUS     14 38 120 174  0.031 27.351   30  0.000   30 -0.225   30 -0.190   30 0.4484  1.011 -0.125 -0.256  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   27 25 145 149 -0.015 26.078   14  0.467   14  0.015   13 -0.011   14 0.5039  1.028  0.075 -0.096  0.000
FLORIDA      24 27 131 145  0.002 25.978   18  0.401   18 -0.028   19 -0.040   18 0.4951  0.888 -0.114  0.035  0.000
TAMPA BAY    23 28 147 173 -0.014 25.755   22  0.358   22 -0.054   27 -0.102   22 0.4875  1.222  0.224 -0.428  0.000
WINNIPEG     24 30 129 150 -0.003 27.472   23  0.353   23 -0.059   24 -0.087   23 0.4862  0.815 -0.240  0.066  0.000
CAROLINA     20 34 137 165 -0.006 27.426   29  0.175   29 -0.135   26 -0.094   29 0.4696  0.978 -0.067 -0.122  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON       33 18 180 111 -0.041 24.665    3  0.721    3  0.132    1  0.231    3 0.5299  1.018  0.304  0.157  0.000
TORONTO      28 25 167 155 -0.015 26.457   13  0.481   13  0.024    9  0.050   13 0.5049  1.176  0.317 -0.217  0.000
OTTAWA       27 28 161 171  0.009 28.157   15  0.439   15 -0.005   18 -0.035   15 0.4983  1.129  0.172 -0.243  0.000
BUFFALO      22 30 126 154 -0.020 26.140   24  0.294   24 -0.086   29 -0.122   25 0.4791  0.886 -0.199 -0.046  0.000
MONTREAL     20 33 137 145  0.018 27.316   27  0.219   27 -0.119   17 -0.030   27 0.4722  0.886 -0.106  0.045  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY RANGERS   33 17 141 102 -0.005 24.994    2  0.782    2  0.158    3  0.171    1 0.5380  0.686 -0.115  0.456  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 30 22 173 156  0.003 26.296    7  0.589    7  0.079    8  0.076    7 0.5194  1.267  0.460 -0.309  0.000
PITTSBURGH   30 23 161 138  0.012 26.994    9  0.577    9  0.075    7  0.078    8 0.5181  1.012  0.146  0.011  0.000
NEW JERSEY   30 22 149 148 -0.015 26.087   10  0.566   10  0.074   15 -0.021   10 0.5173  1.022  0.057 -0.099  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 21 30 125 150  0.002 26.089   25  0.292   25 -0.088   28 -0.109   24 0.4803  0.881 -0.191 -0.027  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION  144 114 0.558    1  0.075
CENTRAL DIVISION   140 123 0.532    2  0.072
NORTHEAST DIVISION 130 134 0.492    3  0.035
PACIFIC DIVISION   125 134 0.483    4 -0.013
NORTHWEST DIVISION 128 136 0.485    5 -0.034
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 118 144 0.450    6 -0.130

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.144 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Feb  7 05:30:10 2012
games through: Mon Feb  6 2012

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