Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         30 15 160 113  0.033 22.989    1  0.226    1  0.220    2  0.261    1 0.5426   18  1.042    5  0.241    5  0.282
JETS             31 15 164 110 -0.015 22.600    2  0.218    2  0.211    1  0.271    2 0.5410   20  1.018    6  0.222    2  0.320
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 16 153 122  0.013 22.733    3  0.191    3  0.187    4  0.177    3 0.5364    9  1.126    3  0.258   10  0.096
OILERS           29 16 149 123 -0.015 22.309    4  0.173    4  0.173    9  0.115    4 0.5343   15  1.079    9  0.138   11  0.092
STARS            28 16 141 108 -0.020 21.599    5  0.159    5  0.158    5  0.174    5 0.5302   24  0.956   13  0.053    4  0.294
MAPLE LEAFS      28 18 140 131  0.012 23.383    6  0.141    6  0.145   12  0.045    6 0.5265   17  1.045   16  0.027   14  0.062
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.027 23.120    7  0.135    7  0.139   10  0.067    7 0.5263   23  0.980   18 -0.027    7  0.160
KINGS            25 17 126 101  0.005 21.093    9  0.109    9  0.115    6  0.167    8 0.5227   32  0.866   20 -0.054    1  0.388
HURRICANES       27 19 152 129  0.014 23.319    8  0.111    8  0.116    8  0.135    9 0.5217   14  1.089    7  0.171    9  0.099
AVALANCHE        27 19 153 144  0.007 23.296   10  0.105   10  0.113   11  0.047   10 0.5202    3  1.226    4  0.256   24 -0.162
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LIGHTNING        24 19 157 122  0.046 22.228   11  0.091   12  0.091    3  0.220   11 0.5192    4  1.226    1  0.428   17  0.012
PANTHERS         26 20 150 142  0.021 23.605   12  0.084   11  0.093   14  0.022   12 0.5179    7  1.168    8  0.156   22 -0.113
DEVILS           26 21 146 120  0.026 24.012   13  0.079   13  0.080    7  0.166   13 0.5142   26  0.929   17  0.015    3  0.318
CANADIENS        22 22 134 144  0.003 22.299   14  0.002   14  0.002   17 -0.017   14 0.5014    8  1.147   12  0.091   23 -0.126
SENATORS         22 22 124 121  0.003 22.225   15  0.002   15  0.001   13  0.034   15 0.5006   28  0.918   24 -0.131    6  0.198
BLUE JACKETS     22 23 156 154 -0.016 22.459   16 -0.017   16 -0.021   15 -0.006   16 0.4966    1  1.315    2  0.320   31 -0.332
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.003 23.332   19 -0.029   19 -0.028   26 -0.118   17 0.4957   27  0.926   30 -0.273   16  0.037
BLUES            22 24 131 135 -0.000 23.245   17 -0.024   17 -0.027   16 -0.012   18 0.4940   22  0.986   23 -0.098   12  0.075
RANGERS          21 23 129 137  0.001 22.268   18 -0.027   18 -0.027   18 -0.021   19 0.4940   13  1.100   15  0.027   21 -0.070
FLAMES           21 23 117 131 -0.045 21.519   20 -0.048   20 -0.048   20 -0.074   20 0.4884   29  0.904   28 -0.253    8  0.106
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED WINGS        21 23 129 141 -0.078 20.964   21 -0.063   21 -0.064   25 -0.112   21 0.4859   10  1.109   19 -0.051   25 -0.172
FLYERS           20 26 143 160 -0.012 23.117   22 -0.085   22 -0.087   21 -0.085   22 0.4852    6  1.206   11  0.098   28 -0.267
CANUCKS          19 25 126 141 -0.033 21.741   23 -0.098   23 -0.099   19 -0.070   23 0.4798   19  1.040   22 -0.094   20 -0.046
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 26 123 135 -0.004 22.283   25 -0.113   25 -0.113   22 -0.087   24 0.4797   21  1.002   25 -0.154   18 -0.019
DUCKS            18 27 111 142  0.033 23.566   24 -0.106   24 -0.105   29 -0.158   25 0.4790   31  0.879   32 -0.365   15  0.049
KRAKEN           19 27 133 148 -0.018 23.074   26 -0.119   26 -0.118   27 -0.130   26 0.4771   11  1.107   21 -0.071   26 -0.188
PENGUINS         19 28 142 175 -0.004 23.918   27 -0.125   27 -0.122   30 -0.192   27 0.4768    2  1.246   14  0.043   32 -0.426
ISLANDERS        17 27 117 136 -0.041 21.682   28 -0.160   28 -0.157   28 -0.146   28 0.4697   25  0.955   29 -0.268   19 -0.024
SABRES           17 28 138 153 -0.018 22.522   29 -0.160   29 -0.159   23 -0.093   29 0.4691    5  1.217   10  0.105   30 -0.290
PREDATORS        15 29 109 137  0.060 23.449   30 -0.168   30 -0.167   24 -0.110   30 0.4690   30  0.900   31 -0.295   13  0.074
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SHARKS           14 33 121 165  0.026 24.558   31 -0.240   31 -0.241   31 -0.219   31 0.4530   16  1.062   27 -0.215   27 -0.222
BLACKHAWKS       14 31 115 155 -0.025 22.574   32 -0.242   32 -0.243   32 -0.223   32 0.4527   12  1.104   26 -0.169   29 -0.278

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS   29 16 153 122  0.013 22.733    3  0.191    3  0.187    4  0.177    3 0.5364    9  1.126    3  0.258   10  0.096
OILERS           29 16 149 123 -0.015 22.309    4  0.173    4  0.173    9  0.115    4 0.5343   15  1.079    9  0.138   11  0.092
KINGS            25 17 126 101  0.005 21.093    9  0.109    9  0.115    6  0.167    8 0.5227   32  0.866   20 -0.054    1  0.388
FLAMES           21 23 117 131 -0.045 21.519   20 -0.048   20 -0.048   20 -0.074   20 0.4884   29  0.904   28 -0.253    8  0.106
CANUCKS          19 25 126 141 -0.033 21.741   23 -0.098   23 -0.099   19 -0.070   23 0.4798   19  1.040   22 -0.094   20 -0.046
DUCKS            18 27 111 142  0.033 23.566   24 -0.106   24 -0.105   29 -0.158   25 0.4790   31  0.879   32 -0.365   15  0.049
KRAKEN           19 27 133 148 -0.018 23.074   26 -0.119   26 -0.118   27 -0.130   26 0.4771   11  1.107   21 -0.071   26 -0.188
SHARKS           14 33 121 165  0.026 24.558   31 -0.240   31 -0.241   31 -0.219   31 0.4530   16  1.062   27 -0.215   27 -0.222

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS             31 15 164 110 -0.015 22.600    2  0.218    2  0.211    1  0.271    2 0.5410   20  1.018    6  0.222    2  0.320
STARS            28 16 141 108 -0.020 21.599    5  0.159    5  0.158    5  0.174    5 0.5302   24  0.956   13  0.053    4  0.294
WILD             27 18 135 127  0.027 23.120    7  0.135    7  0.139   10  0.067    7 0.5263   23  0.980   18 -0.027    7  0.160
AVALANCHE        27 19 153 144  0.007 23.296   10  0.105   10  0.113   11  0.047   10 0.5202    3  1.226    4  0.256   24 -0.162
BLUES            22 24 131 135 -0.000 23.245   17 -0.024   17 -0.027   16 -0.012   18 0.4940   22  0.986   23 -0.098   12  0.075
UTAH HOCKEY CLUB 18 26 123 135 -0.004 22.283   25 -0.113   25 -0.113   22 -0.087   24 0.4797   21  1.002   25 -0.154   18 -0.019
PREDATORS        15 29 109 137  0.060 23.449   30 -0.168   30 -0.167   24 -0.110   30 0.4690   30  0.900   31 -0.295   13  0.074
BLACKHAWKS       14 31 115 155 -0.025 22.574   32 -0.242   32 -0.243   32 -0.223   32 0.4527   12  1.104   26 -0.169   29 -0.278

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAPITALS         30 15 160 113  0.033 22.989    1  0.226    1  0.220    2  0.261    1 0.5426   18  1.042    5  0.241    5  0.282
HURRICANES       27 19 152 129  0.014 23.319    8  0.111    8  0.116    8  0.135    9 0.5217   14  1.089    7  0.171    9  0.099
DEVILS           26 21 146 120  0.026 24.012   13  0.079   13  0.080    7  0.166   13 0.5142   26  0.929   17  0.015    3  0.318
BLUE JACKETS     22 23 156 154 -0.016 22.459   16 -0.017   16 -0.021   15 -0.006   16 0.4966    1  1.315    2  0.320   31 -0.332
RANGERS          21 23 129 137  0.001 22.268   18 -0.027   18 -0.027   18 -0.021   19 0.4940   13  1.100   15  0.027   21 -0.070
FLYERS           20 26 143 160 -0.012 23.117   22 -0.085   22 -0.087   21 -0.085   22 0.4852    6  1.206   11  0.098   28 -0.267
PENGUINS         19 28 142 175 -0.004 23.918   27 -0.125   27 -0.122   30 -0.192   27 0.4768    2  1.246   14  0.043   32 -0.426
ISLANDERS        17 27 117 136 -0.041 21.682   28 -0.160   28 -0.157   28 -0.146   28 0.4697   25  0.955   29 -0.268   19 -0.024

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                               STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM              W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS      28 18 140 131  0.012 23.383    6  0.141    6  0.145   12  0.045    6 0.5265   17  1.045   16  0.027   14  0.062
LIGHTNING        24 19 157 122  0.046 22.228   11  0.091   12  0.091    3  0.220   11 0.5192    4  1.226    1  0.428   17  0.012
PANTHERS         26 20 150 142  0.021 23.605   12  0.084   11  0.093   14  0.022   12 0.5179    7  1.168    8  0.156   22 -0.113
CANADIENS        22 22 134 144  0.003 22.299   14  0.002   14  0.002   17 -0.017   14 0.5014    8  1.147   12  0.091   23 -0.126
SENATORS         22 22 124 121  0.003 22.225   15  0.002   15  0.001   13  0.034   15 0.5006   28  0.918   24 -0.131    6  0.198
BRUINS           22 24 122 144 -0.003 23.332   19 -0.029   19 -0.028   26 -0.118   17 0.4957   27  0.926   30 -0.273   16  0.037
RED WINGS        21 23 129 141 -0.078 20.964   21 -0.063   21 -0.064   25 -0.112   21 0.4859   10  1.109   19 -0.051   25 -0.172
SABRES           17 28 138 153 -0.018 22.522   29 -0.160   29 -0.159   23 -0.093   29 0.4691    5  1.217   10  0.105   30 -0.290

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      182 178 0.506    1  0.025
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 182 182 0.500    2  0.022
ATLANTIC DIVISION     182 176 0.508    3 -0.005
PACIFIC DIVISION      174 184 0.486    4 -0.039

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.068 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan 18 05:30:13 2025
games through: Fri Jan 17 2025

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