Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        56 27 286 230 -0.003 40.310    1  0.330    1  0.337    4  0.239    1 0.5414   16  1.092    6  0.243    7  0.235
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.002 40.753    2  0.273    2  0.276    1  0.286    3 0.5335   23  1.028    7  0.213    3  0.359
PANTHERS       53 30 270 202  0.010 40.692    3  0.270    3  0.272    2  0.269    2 0.5336   30  0.899   15  0.050    1  0.489
JETS           53 30 266 205 -0.004 40.300    4  0.263    4  0.264    5  0.234    4 0.5328   29  0.918   17  0.035    2  0.432
STARS          52 31 301 238 -0.003 40.351    5  0.247    5  0.244    6  0.229    5 0.5303   11  1.174    5  0.336    9  0.122
CANUCKS        51 32 282 225 -0.002 40.286    6  0.227    6  0.218    3  0.242    6 0.5268   18  1.059    8  0.206    6  0.278
OILERS         50 33 301 241 -0.003 40.333    7  0.206    7  0.197    7  0.228    8 0.5237    8  1.189    3  0.352   10  0.103
AVALANCHE      50 33 310 261 -0.002 40.422    8  0.205    8  0.197    9  0.189    7 0.5243    1  1.308    1  0.471   21 -0.094
BRUINS         48 36 274 228  0.014 41.465    9  0.154    9  0.147    8  0.207    9 0.5179   26  0.962   14  0.058    4  0.356
MAPLE LEAFS    47 37 307 270  0.022 41.792   10  0.127   11  0.128   11  0.163   11 0.5158    2  1.286    2  0.416   20 -0.090
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PREDATORS      47 36 271 252  0.001 40.707   11  0.127   10  0.129   13  0.089   10 0.5158   12  1.138   10  0.150   16  0.027
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 37 271 248 -0.011 40.339   12  0.086   12  0.095   14  0.068   12 0.5118   14  1.110   12  0.095   14  0.042
LIGHTNING      45 38 293 271  0.013 41.104   13  0.081   13  0.090   12  0.093   13 0.5107    3  1.285    4  0.344   22 -0.158
KINGS          44 39 260 222 -0.004 40.362   14  0.046   14  0.053   10  0.166   14 0.5064   27  0.939   21 -0.010    5  0.342
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.008 40.227   15  0.027   15  0.039   21 -0.063   15 0.5052   25  1.009   26 -0.158   15  0.032
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.008 40.625   16 -0.000   16  0.004   16  0.000   16 0.5003    5  1.237    9  0.188   24 -0.188
CAPITALS       40 43 221 261  0.015 41.556   17 -0.024   17 -0.022   27 -0.125   17 0.4971   28  0.937   28 -0.303   12  0.052
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.005 40.527   18 -0.039   18 -0.044   17 -0.003   19 0.4942   24  1.027   22 -0.076   11  0.071
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.441   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.022   18 0.4944   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.020 42.124   20 -0.049   20 -0.054   22 -0.066   20 0.4932   19  1.055   23 -0.106   18 -0.026
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.008 40.723   21 -0.059   21 -0.063   19 -0.061   21 0.4916   22  1.039   24 -0.121   17 -0.002
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.003 40.387   22 -0.062   23 -0.070   15  0.034   24 0.4911   17  1.074   19  0.016   13  0.052
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.003 40.625   23 -0.064   22 -0.069   23 -0.089   22 0.4912    7  1.193   16  0.041   26 -0.220
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.001 40.548   24 -0.066   24 -0.071   24 -0.096   23 0.4912    4  1.274   11  0.140   29 -0.332
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.013 40.944   25 -0.081   25 -0.085   25 -0.105   25 0.4891    6  1.200   18  0.035   27 -0.245
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.503   26 -0.117   26 -0.118   20 -0.063   26 0.4856    9  1.187   13  0.060   23 -0.186
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.041   27 -0.184   27 -0.176   26 -0.114   27 0.4780   32  0.835   29 -0.403    8  0.175
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.093   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   15  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.217
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.009 41.112   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.270   29 0.4596   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.389
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.014 40.674   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.405   30 0.4578   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.361
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.228   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4478   31  0.887   32 -0.735   28 -0.269
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.981   32 -0.540   32 -0.541   32 -0.594   32 0.4346   21  1.041   31 -0.651   32 -0.538

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS        51 32 282 225 -0.002 40.286    6  0.227    6  0.218    3  0.242    6 0.5268   18  1.059    8  0.206    6  0.278
OILERS         50 33 301 241 -0.003 40.333    7  0.206    7  0.197    7  0.228    8 0.5237    8  1.189    3  0.352   10  0.103
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 46 37 271 248 -0.011 40.339   12  0.086   12  0.095   14  0.068   12 0.5118   14  1.110   12  0.095   14  0.042
KINGS          44 39 260 222 -0.004 40.362   14  0.046   14  0.053   10  0.166   14 0.5064   27  0.939   21 -0.010    5  0.342
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.003 40.625   23 -0.064   22 -0.069   23 -0.089   22 0.4912    7  1.193   16  0.041   26 -0.220
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.017 40.041   27 -0.184   27 -0.176   26 -0.114   27 0.4780   32  0.835   29 -0.403    8  0.175
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.014 40.674   30 -0.335   30 -0.338   30 -0.405   30 0.4578   20  1.052   30 -0.450   30 -0.361
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.011 40.981   32 -0.540   32 -0.541   32 -0.594   32 0.4346   21  1.041   31 -0.651   32 -0.538

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JETS           53 30 266 205 -0.004 40.300    4  0.263    4  0.264    5  0.234    4 0.5328   29  0.918   17  0.035    2  0.432
STARS          52 31 301 238 -0.003 40.351    5  0.247    5  0.244    6  0.229    5 0.5303   11  1.174    5  0.336    9  0.122
AVALANCHE      50 33 310 261 -0.002 40.422    8  0.205    8  0.197    9  0.189    7 0.5243    1  1.308    1  0.471   21 -0.094
PREDATORS      47 36 271 252  0.001 40.707   11  0.127   10  0.129   13  0.089   10 0.5158   12  1.138   10  0.150   16  0.027
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.008 40.227   15  0.027   15  0.039   21 -0.063   15 0.5052   25  1.009   26 -0.158   15  0.032
WILD           39 43 251 263  0.001 40.441   19 -0.040   19 -0.044   18 -0.022   18 0.4944   13  1.111   20  0.005   19 -0.050
COYOTES        36 46 256 273  0.001 40.503   26 -0.117   26 -0.118   20 -0.063   26 0.4856    9  1.187   13  0.060   23 -0.186
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.001 41.228   31 -0.443   31 -0.432   31 -0.502   31 0.4478   31  0.887   32 -0.735   28 -0.269

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       53 30 270 202  0.010 40.692    3  0.270    3  0.272    2  0.269    2 0.5336   30  0.899   15  0.050    1  0.489
BRUINS         48 36 274 228  0.014 41.465    9  0.154    9  0.147    8  0.207    9 0.5179   26  0.962   14  0.058    4  0.356
MAPLE LEAFS    47 37 307 270  0.022 41.792   10  0.127   11  0.128   11  0.163   11 0.5158    2  1.286    2  0.416   20 -0.090
LIGHTNING      45 38 293 271  0.013 41.104   13  0.081   13  0.090   12  0.093   13 0.5107    3  1.285    4  0.344   22 -0.158
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.008 40.625   16 -0.000   16  0.004   16  0.000   16 0.5003    5  1.237    9  0.188   24 -0.188
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.005 40.527   18 -0.039   18 -0.044   17 -0.003   19 0.4942   24  1.027   22 -0.076   11  0.071
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.013 40.944   25 -0.081   25 -0.085   25 -0.105   25 0.4891    6  1.200   18  0.035   27 -0.245
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.012 41.093   28 -0.250   28 -0.251   28 -0.198   28 0.4685   15  1.105   27 -0.178   25 -0.217

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        56 27 286 230 -0.003 40.310    1  0.330    1  0.337    4  0.239    1 0.5414   16  1.092    6  0.243    7  0.235
HURRICANES     54 30 287 220 -0.002 40.753    2  0.273    2  0.276    1  0.286    3 0.5335   23  1.028    7  0.213    3  0.359
CAPITALS       40 43 221 261  0.015 41.556   17 -0.024   17 -0.022   27 -0.125   17 0.4971   28  0.937   28 -0.303   12  0.052
ISLANDERS      39 45 250 271  0.020 42.124   20 -0.049   20 -0.054   22 -0.066   20 0.4932   19  1.055   23 -0.106   18 -0.026
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.008 40.723   21 -0.059   21 -0.063   19 -0.061   21 0.4916   22  1.039   24 -0.121   17 -0.002
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.003 40.387   22 -0.062   23 -0.070   15  0.034   24 0.4911   17  1.074   19  0.016   13  0.052
DEVILS         38 44 264 283  0.001 40.548   24 -0.066   24 -0.071   24 -0.096   23 0.4912    4  1.274   11  0.140   29 -0.332
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.009 41.112   29 -0.318   29 -0.325   29 -0.270   29 0.4596   10  1.184   25 -0.152   31 -0.389

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     340 322 0.514    1  0.065
CENTRAL DIVISION      343 317 0.520    2  0.017
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 330 332 0.498    3 -0.010
PACIFIC DIVISION      309 351 0.468    4 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.105 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Apr 23 05:30:12 2024
games through: Mon Apr 22 2024

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