Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        16  5 70 52  0.064 10.811    1  0.281    1  0.285    2  0.228    1 0.5605   28  0.914   17  0.016    1  0.440 P
KINGS          13  7 77 49  0.095 10.452    2  0.176    2  0.176    1  0.341    2 0.5418   14  1.130    2  0.383    6  0.299 P
AVALANCHE      15  7 83 63 -0.032 10.465    3  0.171    3  0.175    6  0.158    4 0.5384    7  1.223    3  0.319   16 -0.002
BRUINS         15  7 74 55 -0.035 10.306    4  0.165    4  0.169    3  0.201    3 0.5394   24  0.960   16  0.041    4  0.362
STARS          13  8 71 61  0.084 11.087    5  0.143    5  0.152    8  0.130    5 0.5339   18  1.105    9  0.142   13  0.118 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 15  9 78 58 -0.016 11.579    6  0.125    6  0.128    7  0.140    6 0.5289   29  0.873   24 -0.117    2  0.397
CANUCKS        15  9 91 61 -0.081 10.900    7  0.091    8  0.093    4  0.195    7 0.5223   15  1.127    7  0.234    9  0.157
PANTHERS       14  9 68 58 -0.055 10.872    8  0.085    7  0.094   12  0.059    8 0.5219   31  0.827   29 -0.247    3  0.365
JETS           12 10 72 64  0.087 11.668    9  0.079    9  0.081   10  0.107    9 0.5191   20  1.079   14  0.087   11  0.127
HURRICANES     13  9 75 73 -0.066 10.409   10  0.071   10  0.072   16 -0.008   12 0.5101    4  1.263    8  0.205   25 -0.222
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    12  9 73 70 -0.013 10.375   11  0.067   11  0.067   14  0.000   10 0.5128    8  1.201   10  0.133   19 -0.133 P
RED WINGS      12 10 81 64  0.019 10.939   12  0.053   12  0.050    5  0.164   14 0.5077   10  1.175    6  0.262   14  0.065
BLUES          12 10 67 69  0.007 11.069   13  0.052   13  0.049   15 -0.007   11 0.5111   19  1.086   19 -0.018   15  0.005
CAPITALS       12  8 51 55 -0.150  8.919   14  0.050   14  0.046   27 -0.119   13 0.5079   32  0.763   31 -0.491    7  0.254 P
COYOTES        11 11 72 66  0.074 11.526   15  0.031   15  0.028   11  0.087   15 0.5065   21  1.070   15  0.055   12  0.118
PREDATORS      11 11 71 72 -0.021 10.830   16 -0.006   16 -0.005   17 -0.013   17 0.4956    9  1.196   13  0.113   21 -0.139
PENGUINS       11 11 69 57 -0.019 10.658   17 -0.007   17 -0.009    9  0.117   16 0.4991   27  0.920   23 -0.088    5  0.322
FLYERS         11 12 68 66  0.007 11.523   18 -0.019   18 -0.021   13  0.029   19 0.4914   25  0.950   25 -0.142    8  0.200
DEVILS         11 11 79 83 -0.055 10.609   19 -0.022   19 -0.023   24 -0.080   18 0.4935    1  1.488    1  0.448   32 -0.609
SENATORS        8 10 62 63  0.007  9.071   20 -0.047   21 -0.048   18 -0.023   25 0.4773    3  1.335    5  0.288   30 -0.333 P
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         10 13 68 78  0.044 12.011   21 -0.050   20 -0.046   25 -0.092   20 0.4896   17  1.117   21 -0.065   18 -0.119
SABRES         10 13 68 77  0.009 11.659   22 -0.066   22 -0.061   23 -0.066   21 0.4863   13  1.151   18  0.003   20 -0.134
CANADIENS      10 13 63 82 -0.026 11.552   23 -0.077   23 -0.070   30 -0.194   22 0.4832   22  1.065   28 -0.231   22 -0.157
DUCKS           9 14 63 81  0.058 12.283   24 -0.090   24 -0.083   28 -0.154   23 0.4792   11  1.165   22 -0.068   27 -0.240
OILERS          9 13 74 79  0.003 11.067   25 -0.094   25 -0.093   19 -0.033   24 0.4785    2  1.346    4  0.292   31 -0.358
ISLANDERS       9 13 61 71 -0.025 10.826   26 -0.106   26 -0.103   22 -0.061   27 0.4728   26  0.922   30 -0.264   10  0.142
LIGHTNING      10 14 82 85 -0.045 11.627   27 -0.110   27 -0.107   20 -0.056   26 0.4747    5  1.241   11  0.129   26 -0.240
WILD            7 14 66 79  0.042 10.925   28 -0.151   28 -0.148   21 -0.059   28 0.4658    6  1.240   12  0.125   28 -0.243 P
BLACKHAWKS      7 14 54 78  0.027 10.994   29 -0.153   29 -0.150   31 -0.231   29 0.4645   16  1.123   26 -0.197   29 -0.264 P
KRAKEN          8 16 68 86  0.016 12.399   30 -0.168   30 -0.166   29 -0.168   30 0.4639   23  1.050   27 -0.223   17 -0.113
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JACKETS    8 17 73 85 -0.009 12.544   31 -0.204   31 -0.201   26 -0.111   31 0.4563   12  1.151   20 -0.043   24 -0.180
SHARKS          6 18 42 94 -0.005 12.461   32 -0.268   32 -0.266   32 -0.453   32 0.4446   30  0.857   32 -0.727   23 -0.178

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KINGS          13  7 77 49  0.095 10.452    2  0.176    2  0.176    1  0.341    2 0.5418   14  1.130    2  0.383    6  0.299 P
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 15  9 78 58 -0.016 11.579    6  0.125    6  0.128    7  0.140    6 0.5289   29  0.873   24 -0.117    2  0.397
CANUCKS        15  9 91 61 -0.081 10.900    7  0.091    8  0.093    4  0.195    7 0.5223   15  1.127    7  0.234    9  0.157
FLAMES         10 13 68 78  0.044 12.011   21 -0.050   20 -0.046   25 -0.092   20 0.4896   17  1.117   21 -0.065   18 -0.119
DUCKS           9 14 63 81  0.058 12.283   24 -0.090   24 -0.083   28 -0.154   23 0.4792   11  1.165   22 -0.068   27 -0.240
OILERS          9 13 74 79  0.003 11.067   25 -0.094   25 -0.093   19 -0.033   24 0.4785    2  1.346    4  0.292   31 -0.358
KRAKEN          8 16 68 86  0.016 12.399   30 -0.168   30 -0.166   29 -0.168   30 0.4639   23  1.050   27 -0.223   17 -0.113
SHARKS          6 18 42 94 -0.005 12.461   32 -0.268   32 -0.266   32 -0.453   32 0.4446   30  0.857   32 -0.727   23 -0.178

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      15  7 83 63 -0.032 10.465    3  0.171    3  0.175    6  0.158    4 0.5384    7  1.223    3  0.319   16 -0.002
STARS          13  8 71 61  0.084 11.087    5  0.143    5  0.152    8  0.130    5 0.5339   18  1.105    9  0.142   13  0.118 P
JETS           12 10 72 64  0.087 11.668    9  0.079    9  0.081   10  0.107    9 0.5191   20  1.079   14  0.087   11  0.127
BLUES          12 10 67 69  0.007 11.069   13  0.052   13  0.049   15 -0.007   11 0.5111   19  1.086   19 -0.018   15  0.005
COYOTES        11 11 72 66  0.074 11.526   15  0.031   15  0.028   11  0.087   15 0.5065   21  1.070   15  0.055   12  0.118
PREDATORS      11 11 71 72 -0.021 10.830   16 -0.006   16 -0.005   17 -0.013   17 0.4956    9  1.196   13  0.113   21 -0.139
WILD            7 14 66 79  0.042 10.925   28 -0.151   28 -0.148   21 -0.059   28 0.4658    6  1.240   12  0.125   28 -0.243 P
BLACKHAWKS      7 14 54 78  0.027 10.994   29 -0.153   29 -0.150   31 -0.231   29 0.4645   16  1.123   26 -0.197   29 -0.264 P

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         15  7 74 55 -0.035 10.306    4  0.165    4  0.169    3  0.201    3 0.5394   24  0.960   16  0.041    4  0.362
PANTHERS       14  9 68 58 -0.055 10.872    8  0.085    7  0.094   12  0.059    8 0.5219   31  0.827   29 -0.247    3  0.365
MAPLE LEAFS    12  9 73 70 -0.013 10.375   11  0.067   11  0.067   14  0.000   10 0.5128    8  1.201   10  0.133   19 -0.133 P
RED WINGS      12 10 81 64  0.019 10.939   12  0.053   12  0.050    5  0.164   14 0.5077   10  1.175    6  0.262   14  0.065
SENATORS        8 10 62 63  0.007  9.071   20 -0.047   21 -0.048   18 -0.023   25 0.4773    3  1.335    5  0.288   30 -0.333 P
SABRES         10 13 68 77  0.009 11.659   22 -0.066   22 -0.061   23 -0.066   21 0.4863   13  1.151   18  0.003   20 -0.134
CANADIENS      10 13 63 82 -0.026 11.552   23 -0.077   23 -0.070   30 -0.194   22 0.4832   22  1.065   28 -0.231   22 -0.157
LIGHTNING      10 14 82 85 -0.045 11.627   27 -0.110   27 -0.107   20 -0.056   26 0.4747    5  1.241   11  0.129   26 -0.240

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        16  5 70 52  0.064 10.811    1  0.281    1  0.285    2  0.228    1 0.5605   28  0.914   17  0.016    1  0.440 P
HURRICANES     13  9 75 73 -0.066 10.409   10  0.071   10  0.072   16 -0.008   12 0.5101    4  1.263    8  0.205   25 -0.222
CAPITALS       12  8 51 55 -0.150  8.919   14  0.050   14  0.046   27 -0.119   13 0.5079   32  0.763   31 -0.491    7  0.254 P
PENGUINS       11 11 69 57 -0.019 10.658   17 -0.007   17 -0.009    9  0.117   16 0.4991   27  0.920   23 -0.088    5  0.322
FLYERS         11 12 68 66  0.007 11.523   18 -0.019   18 -0.021   13  0.029   19 0.4914   25  0.950   25 -0.142    8  0.200
DEVILS         11 11 79 83 -0.055 10.609   19 -0.022   19 -0.023   24 -0.080   18 0.4935    1  1.488    1  0.448   32 -0.609
ISLANDERS       9 13 61 71 -0.025 10.826   26 -0.106   26 -0.103   22 -0.061   27 0.4728   26  0.922   30 -0.264   10  0.142
BLUE JACKETS    8 17 73 85 -0.009 12.544   31 -0.204   31 -0.201   26 -0.111   31 0.4563   12  1.151   20 -0.043   24 -0.180

DIVISION               W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      88 85 0.509    1  0.043
ATLANTIC DIVISION     91 85 0.517    2  0.021
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 91 86 0.514    3 -0.003
PACIFIC DIVISION      85 99 0.462    4 -0.049

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.061 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Dec  2 05:30:13 2023
games through: Fri Dec  1 2023

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