Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   48 24 283 203 -0.040 34.659    1  0.846    1  0.188    1  0.252    2 0.5335  1.343  0.694 -0.190  0.000
CHICAGO      45 26 234 179  0.023 36.046    2  0.823    2  0.177    2  0.207    1 0.5364  1.027  0.246  0.167  0.000
PHOENIX      45 27 198 176  0.016 36.592    3  0.783    3  0.163    7  0.076    3 0.5331  0.784 -0.154  0.307  0.000
SAN JOSE     43 28 231 187  0.030 36.338    4  0.755    4  0.146    4  0.176    4 0.5311  1.067  0.264  0.089  0.000
VANCOUVER    44 28 236 187  0.010 36.269    5  0.750    5  0.144    3  0.180    5 0.5293  1.102  0.310  0.050  0.000
LOS ANGELES  41 29 206 185  0.029 35.944    6  0.669    6  0.119    6  0.078    6 0.5252  0.974  0.056  0.099  0.000
NEW JERSEY   42 28 187 165 -0.025 34.437    7  0.647    7  0.112    8  0.064    8 0.5203  0.753 -0.198  0.326  0.000
NASHVILLE    41 31 203 201  0.037 37.323    8  0.627    8  0.105   12  0.027    7 0.5216  0.980  0.012  0.042  0.000
COLORADO     40 30 211 185  0.005 35.191    9  0.594    9  0.088    5  0.110    9 0.5184  1.011  0.131  0.089  0.000
PITTSBURGH   42 30 224 205 -0.035 35.213   10  0.586   10  0.086   14  0.026   10 0.5153  1.123  0.183 -0.130  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUFFALO      38 32 195 177 -0.031 34.280   11  0.497   11  0.036    9  0.048   12 0.5057  0.839 -0.125  0.220  0.000
DETROIT      35 36 193 192  0.059 37.377   12  0.476   12  0.021   10  0.037   11 0.5061  0.881 -0.089  0.163  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 37 34 211 196 -0.025 34.989   13  0.468   13  0.014   11  0.028   14 0.5009  1.051  0.097 -0.040  0.000
CALGARY      36 35 181 177  0.007 35.918   14  0.467   14  0.013   13  0.026   13 0.5043  0.757 -0.231  0.284  0.000
OTTAWA       37 35 194 213 -0.041 35.241   15  0.446   15 -0.003   24 -0.091   18 0.4972  1.017 -0.064 -0.118  0.000
ST. LOUIS    34 37 194 196  0.038 36.810   16  0.442   16 -0.007   15  0.023   15 0.5000  0.933 -0.045  0.092  0.000
MINNESOTA    34 37 194 208  0.026 36.559   17  0.432   17 -0.013   16 -0.036   17 0.4993  1.000 -0.028 -0.045  0.000
MONTREAL     36 36 196 198 -0.030 35.467   18  0.430   18 -0.015   19 -0.048   19 0.4949  0.896 -0.158  0.062  0.000
ANAHEIM      33 37 198 215  0.036 36.356   19  0.426   19 -0.017   18 -0.044   16 0.4994  1.097  0.080 -0.167  0.000
DALLAS       31 40 206 227  0.037 36.891   20  0.369   20 -0.059   17 -0.042   20 0.4908  1.144  0.140 -0.223  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON       31 39 175 180 -0.038 34.271   21  0.307   21 -0.088   20 -0.049   23 0.4818  0.724 -0.341  0.244  0.000
NY RANGERS   31 40 185 195 -0.026 35.109   22  0.303   22 -0.091   21 -0.050   22 0.4819  0.895 -0.161  0.062  0.000
ATLANTA      31 40 215 229 -0.042 34.685   23  0.282   23 -0.099   22 -0.068   24 0.4783  1.211  0.199 -0.335  0.000
COLUMBUS     29 43 187 229  0.037 37.495   24  0.273   24 -0.103   23 -0.083   21 0.4827  1.024 -0.047 -0.119  0.000
CAROLINA     30 41 198 221 -0.030 35.084   25  0.252   25 -0.110   26 -0.109   25 0.4759  1.068 -0.020 -0.197  0.000
FLORIDA      28 42 181 207 -0.012 35.116   26  0.206   26 -0.128   25 -0.101   27 0.4724  0.898 -0.210  0.007  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 29 43 189 222 -0.020 35.907   27  0.194   27 -0.130   28 -0.136   26 0.4726  0.979 -0.152 -0.120  0.000
TAMPA BAY    27 43 182 218 -0.020 34.914   28  0.144   28 -0.150   27 -0.124   28 0.4686  0.972 -0.149 -0.099  0.000
TORONTO      26 46 192 238 -0.025 35.793   29  0.056   29 -0.186   29 -0.162   29 0.4628  1.108 -0.024 -0.299  0.000
EDMONTON     22 49 179 247  0.034 37.095   30  0.000   30 -0.221   30 -0.219   30 0.4593  1.120 -0.067 -0.372  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX      45 27 198 176  0.016 36.592    3  0.783    3  0.163    7  0.076    3 0.5331  0.784 -0.154  0.307  0.000
SAN JOSE     43 28 231 187  0.030 36.338    4  0.755    4  0.146    4  0.176    4 0.5311  1.067  0.264  0.089  0.000
LOS ANGELES  41 29 206 185  0.029 35.944    6  0.669    6  0.119    6  0.078    6 0.5252  0.974  0.056  0.099  0.000
ANAHEIM      33 37 198 215  0.036 36.356   19  0.426   19 -0.017   18 -0.044   16 0.4994  1.097  0.080 -0.167  0.000
DALLAS       31 40 206 227  0.037 36.891   20  0.369   20 -0.059   17 -0.042   20 0.4908  1.144  0.140 -0.223  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    44 28 236 187  0.010 36.269    5  0.750    5  0.144    3  0.180    5 0.5293  1.102  0.310  0.050  0.000
COLORADO     40 30 211 185  0.005 35.191    9  0.594    9  0.088    5  0.110    9 0.5184  1.011  0.131  0.089  0.000
CALGARY      36 35 181 177  0.007 35.918   14  0.467   14  0.013   13  0.026   13 0.5043  0.757 -0.231  0.284  0.000
MINNESOTA    34 37 194 208  0.026 36.559   17  0.432   17 -0.013   16 -0.036   17 0.4993  1.000 -0.028 -0.045  0.000
EDMONTON     22 49 179 247  0.034 37.095   30  0.000   30 -0.221   30 -0.219   30 0.4593  1.120 -0.067 -0.372  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      45 26 234 179  0.023 36.046    2  0.823    2  0.177    2  0.207    1 0.5364  1.027  0.246  0.167  0.000
NASHVILLE    41 31 203 201  0.037 37.323    8  0.627    8  0.105   12  0.027    7 0.5216  0.980  0.012  0.042  0.000
DETROIT      35 36 193 192  0.059 37.377   12  0.476   12  0.021   10  0.037   11 0.5061  0.881 -0.089  0.163  0.000
ST. LOUIS    34 37 194 196  0.038 36.810   16  0.442   16 -0.007   15  0.023   15 0.5000  0.933 -0.045  0.092  0.000
COLUMBUS     29 43 187 229  0.037 37.495   24  0.273   24 -0.103   23 -0.083   21 0.4827  1.024 -0.047 -0.119  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   48 24 283 203 -0.040 34.659    1  0.846    1  0.188    1  0.252    2 0.5335  1.343  0.694 -0.190  0.000
ATLANTA      31 40 215 229 -0.042 34.685   23  0.282   23 -0.099   22 -0.068   24 0.4783  1.211  0.199 -0.335  0.000
CAROLINA     30 41 198 221 -0.030 35.084   25  0.252   25 -0.110   26 -0.109   25 0.4759  1.068 -0.020 -0.197  0.000
FLORIDA      28 42 181 207 -0.012 35.116   26  0.206   26 -0.128   25 -0.101   27 0.4724  0.898 -0.210  0.007  0.000
TAMPA BAY    27 43 182 218 -0.020 34.914   28  0.144   28 -0.150   27 -0.124   28 0.4686  0.972 -0.149 -0.099  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUFFALO      38 32 195 177 -0.031 34.280   11  0.497   11  0.036    9  0.048   12 0.5057  0.839 -0.125  0.220  0.000
OTTAWA       37 35 194 213 -0.041 35.241   15  0.446   15 -0.003   24 -0.091   18 0.4972  1.017 -0.064 -0.118  0.000
MONTREAL     36 36 196 198 -0.030 35.467   18  0.430   18 -0.015   19 -0.048   19 0.4949  0.896 -0.158  0.062  0.000
BOSTON       31 39 175 180 -0.038 34.271   21  0.307   21 -0.088   20 -0.049   23 0.4818  0.724 -0.341  0.244  0.000
TORONTO      26 46 192 238 -0.025 35.793   29  0.056   29 -0.186   29 -0.162   29 0.4628  1.108 -0.024 -0.299  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY   42 28 187 165 -0.025 34.437    7  0.647    7  0.112    8  0.064    8 0.5203  0.753 -0.198  0.326  0.000
PITTSBURGH   42 30 224 205 -0.035 35.213   10  0.586   10  0.086   14  0.026   10 0.5153  1.123  0.183 -0.130  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 37 34 211 196 -0.025 34.989   13  0.468   13  0.014   11  0.028   14 0.5009  1.051  0.097 -0.040  0.000
NY RANGERS   31 40 185 195 -0.026 35.109   22  0.303   22 -0.091   21 -0.050   22 0.4819  0.895 -0.161  0.062  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 29 43 189 222 -0.020 35.907   27  0.194   27 -0.130   28 -0.136   26 0.4726  0.979 -0.152 -0.120  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   193 161 0.545    1  0.081
CENTRAL DIVISION   184 173 0.515    2  0.070
NORTHWEST DIVISION 176 179 0.496    3  0.021
ATLANTIC DIVISION  181 175 0.508    4 -0.022
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 164 190 0.463    5 -0.054
NORTHEAST DIVISION 168 188 0.472    6 -0.100

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.148 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Mar 21 08:53:10 2010
games through: Sat Mar 20 2010

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