Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         68 21 332 203  0.022 44.070    1  0.595    1  0.578    1  0.543    1 0.5653   28  0.942    2  0.355    1  0.731
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 36 338 276  0.022 50.111    2  0.313    2  0.310    7  0.221    2 0.5349   23  1.019   11  0.121    7  0.320
HURRICANES     60 37 312 251  0.031 48.949    3  0.279    3  0.269    4  0.247    3 0.5305   29  0.917   17  0.030    2  0.464
DEVILS         57 37 321 267  0.037 47.659    4  0.264    4  0.250    6  0.231    4 0.5280   18  1.094    7  0.221   10  0.240
AVALANCHE      54 35 299 243 -0.012 43.451    5  0.229    5  0.208    9  0.202    5 0.5245   25  1.001   13  0.081    6  0.323
MAPLE LEAFS    55 38 312 257  0.022 46.561    6  0.224    6  0.199    3  0.248    7 0.5236   24  1.008   10  0.136    4  0.361
OILERS         56 38 369 302  0.000 46.261    7  0.219    7  0.193    5  0.235    6 0.5238    2  1.368    1  0.584   20 -0.114
PANTHERS       54 45 342 321  0.080 51.986    8  0.183    8  0.161   11  0.143    8 0.5186    5  1.258    4  0.342   18 -0.056
RANGERS        50 39 294 236  0.022 44.586    9  0.159    9  0.137    8  0.215   10 0.5165   26  0.967   15  0.055    3  0.376
STARS          57 44 344 279  0.007 49.990   10  0.158   10  0.135    2  0.253    9 0.5168   20  1.047    8  0.187    8  0.320
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
KRAKEN         53 43 333 301  0.021 48.271   11  0.129   11  0.124   12  0.112   11 0.5139    7  1.211    6  0.249   16 -0.025
KINGS          49 39 300 282  0.005 43.754   12  0.122   12  0.120   14  0.067   12 0.5138   12  1.165    9  0.146   15 -0.012
LIGHTNING      48 40 304 277  0.022 44.170   13  0.111   13  0.109   10  0.152   13 0.5125    8  1.204    5  0.280   14  0.023
WILD           48 40 260 246 -0.008 43.329   14  0.085   14  0.086   15  0.058   15 0.5092   30  0.890   24 -0.188    9  0.304
JETS           47 40 261 244 -0.010 42.824   15  0.068   15  0.071   16  0.023   14 0.5094   27  0.960   21 -0.145   11  0.190
SABRES         42 40 296 300  0.005 40.985   16  0.027   16  0.026   19 -0.042   16 0.5032    1  1.395    3  0.344   28 -0.429
ISLANDERS      44 44 258 238  0.012 43.954   17  0.014   17  0.006   13  0.093   18 0.5007   31  0.890   22 -0.153    5  0.339
PREDATORS      42 40 229 238 -0.023 40.155   18  0.011   18  0.006   22 -0.085   17 0.5007   32  0.874   29 -0.348   12  0.179
PENGUINS       40 42 262 264  0.001 40.799   19 -0.014   19 -0.028   17  0.003   19 0.4968   14  1.139   16  0.048   17 -0.042
SENATORS       39 43 261 271 -0.001 40.855   20 -0.035   20 -0.052   21 -0.062   20 0.4941   11  1.167   18  0.019   22 -0.143
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLAMES         38 44 260 252 -0.031 39.721   21 -0.086   22 -0.105   18 -0.005   21 0.4881   19  1.066   20 -0.049   13  0.038
CANUCKS        38 44 276 298 -0.034 39.935   22 -0.088   21 -0.099   23 -0.148   22 0.4879    3  1.309   12  0.119   26 -0.415
BLUES          37 45 263 301 -0.028 40.187   23 -0.111   23 -0.120   25 -0.181   23 0.4860    4  1.296   14  0.069   29 -0.430
CAPITALS       35 47 255 265 -0.006 40.653   24 -0.148   25 -0.157   20 -0.049   25 0.4814   16  1.122   19 -0.024   19 -0.074
RED WINGS      35 47 240 279 -0.006 40.869   25 -0.149   24 -0.154   24 -0.166   24 0.4818   17  1.105   23 -0.163   23 -0.169
CANADIENS      31 51 232 307 -0.003 41.257   26 -0.246   26 -0.254   28 -0.333   26 0.4704    9  1.177   26 -0.239   27 -0.426
FLYERS         31 51 222 277 -0.006 40.973   27 -0.246   27 -0.259   26 -0.216   27 0.4699   22  1.024   28 -0.310   21 -0.123
COYOTES        28 54 228 299 -0.028 40.438   28 -0.328   28 -0.347   27 -0.292   28 0.4597   15  1.127   27 -0.260   24 -0.323
BLACKHAWKS     26 56 204 301 -0.030 40.590   29 -0.390   29 -0.398   30 -0.466   29 0.4535   21  1.035   32 -0.547   25 -0.385
BLUE JACKETS   25 57 214 330 -0.009 41.347   30 -0.402   30 -0.410   31 -0.508   30 0.4520   10  1.173   30 -0.419   31 -0.597
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS          23 59 209 338 -0.031 40.701   31 -0.467   31 -0.480   32 -0.559   31 0.4444   13  1.144   31 -0.507   32 -0.611
SHARKS         22 60 234 321 -0.031 40.413   32 -0.480   32 -0.506   29 -0.349   32 0.4417    6  1.217   25 -0.204   30 -0.493

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 64 36 338 276  0.022 50.111    2  0.313    2  0.310    7  0.221    2 0.5349   23  1.019   11  0.121    7  0.320
OILERS         56 38 369 302  0.000 46.261    7  0.219    7  0.193    5  0.235    6 0.5238    2  1.368    1  0.584   20 -0.114
KRAKEN         53 43 333 301  0.021 48.271   11  0.129   11  0.124   12  0.112   11 0.5139    7  1.211    6  0.249   16 -0.025
KINGS          49 39 300 282  0.005 43.754   12  0.122   12  0.120   14  0.067   12 0.5138   12  1.165    9  0.146   15 -0.012
FLAMES         38 44 260 252 -0.031 39.721   21 -0.086   22 -0.105   18 -0.005   21 0.4881   19  1.066   20 -0.049   13  0.038
CANUCKS        38 44 276 298 -0.034 39.935   22 -0.088   21 -0.099   23 -0.148   22 0.4879    3  1.309   12  0.119   26 -0.415
DUCKS          23 59 209 338 -0.031 40.701   31 -0.467   31 -0.480   32 -0.559   31 0.4444   13  1.144   31 -0.507   32 -0.611
SHARKS         22 60 234 321 -0.031 40.413   32 -0.480   32 -0.506   29 -0.349   32 0.4417    6  1.217   25 -0.204   30 -0.493

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
AVALANCHE      54 35 299 243 -0.012 43.451    5  0.229    5  0.208    9  0.202    5 0.5245   25  1.001   13  0.081    6  0.323
STARS          57 44 344 279  0.007 49.990   10  0.158   10  0.135    2  0.253    9 0.5168   20  1.047    8  0.187    8  0.320
WILD           48 40 260 246 -0.008 43.329   14  0.085   14  0.086   15  0.058   15 0.5092   30  0.890   24 -0.188    9  0.304
JETS           47 40 261 244 -0.010 42.824   15  0.068   15  0.071   16  0.023   14 0.5094   27  0.960   21 -0.145   11  0.190
PREDATORS      42 40 229 238 -0.023 40.155   18  0.011   18  0.006   22 -0.085   17 0.5007   32  0.874   29 -0.348   12  0.179
BLUES          37 45 263 301 -0.028 40.187   23 -0.111   23 -0.120   25 -0.181   23 0.4860    4  1.296   14  0.069   29 -0.430
COYOTES        28 54 228 299 -0.028 40.438   28 -0.328   28 -0.347   27 -0.292   28 0.4597   15  1.127   27 -0.260   24 -0.323
BLACKHAWKS     26 56 204 301 -0.030 40.590   29 -0.390   29 -0.398   30 -0.466   29 0.4535   21  1.035   32 -0.547   25 -0.385

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS         68 21 332 203  0.022 44.070    1  0.595    1  0.578    1  0.543    1 0.5653   28  0.942    2  0.355    1  0.731
MAPLE LEAFS    55 38 312 257  0.022 46.561    6  0.224    6  0.199    3  0.248    7 0.5236   24  1.008   10  0.136    4  0.361
PANTHERS       54 45 342 321  0.080 51.986    8  0.183    8  0.161   11  0.143    8 0.5186    5  1.258    4  0.342   18 -0.056
LIGHTNING      48 40 304 277  0.022 44.170   13  0.111   13  0.109   10  0.152   13 0.5125    8  1.204    5  0.280   14  0.023
SABRES         42 40 296 300  0.005 40.985   16  0.027   16  0.026   19 -0.042   16 0.5032    1  1.395    3  0.344   28 -0.429
SENATORS       39 43 261 271 -0.001 40.855   20 -0.035   20 -0.052   21 -0.062   20 0.4941   11  1.167   18  0.019   22 -0.143
RED WINGS      35 47 240 279 -0.006 40.869   25 -0.149   24 -0.154   24 -0.166   24 0.4818   17  1.105   23 -0.163   23 -0.169
CANADIENS      31 51 232 307 -0.003 41.257   26 -0.246   26 -0.254   28 -0.333   26 0.4704    9  1.177   26 -0.239   27 -0.426

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HURRICANES     60 37 312 251  0.031 48.949    3  0.279    3  0.269    4  0.247    3 0.5305   29  0.917   17  0.030    2  0.464
DEVILS         57 37 321 267  0.037 47.659    4  0.264    4  0.250    6  0.231    4 0.5280   18  1.094    7  0.221   10  0.240
RANGERS        50 39 294 236  0.022 44.586    9  0.159    9  0.137    8  0.215   10 0.5165   26  0.967   15  0.055    3  0.376
ISLANDERS      44 44 258 238  0.012 43.954   17  0.014   17  0.006   13  0.093   18 0.5007   31  0.890   22 -0.153    5  0.339
PENGUINS       40 42 262 264  0.001 40.799   19 -0.014   19 -0.028   17  0.003   19 0.4968   14  1.139   16  0.048   17 -0.042
CAPITALS       35 47 255 265 -0.006 40.653   24 -0.148   25 -0.157   20 -0.049   25 0.4814   16  1.122   19 -0.024   19 -0.074
FLYERS         31 51 222 277 -0.006 40.973   27 -0.246   27 -0.259   26 -0.216   27 0.4699   22  1.024   28 -0.310   21 -0.123
BLUE JACKETS   25 57 214 330 -0.009 41.347   30 -0.402   30 -0.410   31 -0.508   30 0.4520   10  1.173   30 -0.419   31 -0.597

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     372 325 0.534    1  0.069
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 342 354 0.491    2  0.006
PACIFIC DIVISION      343 363 0.486    3 -0.058
CENTRAL DIVISION      339 354 0.489    4 -0.069

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.072 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jun  4 05:30:14 2023
games through: Sat Jun  3 2023

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