Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT      35 17 167 121  0.021 26.436    1  0.870    1  0.192    2  0.203    1 0.5434  1.010  0.266  0.141  0.000
NY RANGERS   32 17 136 100 -0.007 24.466    2  0.789    2  0.154    3  0.164    2 0.5357  0.672 -0.138  0.466  0.000
BOSTON       32 17 175 108 -0.048 23.570    3  0.752    3  0.137    1  0.231    3 0.5302  1.040  0.328  0.134  0.000
VANCOUVER    31 20 164 128  0.023 26.104    4  0.715    4  0.123    4  0.155    4 0.5267  1.061  0.277  0.033  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 30 20 167 145 -0.006 25.086    5  0.659    5  0.100    7  0.094    6 0.5233  1.226  0.423 -0.235  0.000
ST. LOUIS    29 20 124 102  0.008 24.785    6  0.658    6  0.098    5  0.137    5 0.5234  0.613 -0.221  0.496  0.000
SAN JOSE     29 20 142 112 -0.011 24.420    7  0.638    8  0.090    6  0.120    7 0.5207  0.842 -0.007  0.246  0.000
NASHVILLE    31 21 146 135 -0.025 25.759    8  0.634    7  0.092    9  0.040    8 0.5193  0.944  0.026  0.055  0.000
PITTSBURGH   29 22 157 132 -0.004 25.663    9  0.591    9  0.071    8  0.080    9 0.5169  1.017  0.150  0.010  0.000
NEW JERSEY   28 22 138 142 -0.023 24.969   10  0.549   10  0.054   19 -0.044   10 0.5121  0.979 -0.018 -0.070  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      29 23 168 155 -0.029 25.711   11  0.542   11  0.050   10  0.028   11 0.5094  1.222  0.351 -0.295  0.000
DALLAS       26 24 134 143 -0.006 25.331   12  0.491   12  0.019   20 -0.047   12 0.5040  1.049  0.061 -0.156  0.000
OTTAWA       27 26 160 164  0.013 27.185   13  0.488   13  0.017   13 -0.009   14 0.5030  1.160  0.234 -0.253  0.000
WASHINGTON   26 24 141 145 -0.025 24.876   14  0.483   14  0.012   15 -0.020   13 0.5034  1.049  0.088 -0.128  0.000
TORONTO      26 25 156 152 -0.014 25.541   15  0.475   15  0.006   11  0.020   15 0.5004  1.160  0.263 -0.224  0.000
MINNESOTA    25 26 120 131  0.019 26.302   16  0.464   16 -0.002   16 -0.027   16 0.4997  0.736 -0.265  0.210  0.000
COLORADO     26 27 133 148  0.012 27.285   17  0.456   17 -0.004   25 -0.088   17 0.4996  0.908 -0.142 -0.033  0.000
LOS ANGELES  25 26 114 113 -0.023 25.378   18  0.437   18 -0.020   12 -0.000   18 0.4952  0.489 -0.473  0.472  0.000
FLORIDA      23 26 126 138  0.005 25.020   19  0.423   19 -0.028   18 -0.035   19 0.4949  0.876 -0.125  0.055  0.000
CALGARY      23 28 121 140  0.032 26.628   20  0.409   20 -0.037   22 -0.062   20 0.4922  0.852 -0.178  0.054  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WINNIPEG     24 28 128 145 -0.010 26.281   21  0.398   21 -0.044   23 -0.072   21 0.4897  0.844 -0.197  0.053  0.000
PHOENIX      22 29 131 138  0.018 26.266   22  0.366   22 -0.064   14 -0.018   22 0.4858  0.904 -0.077  0.041  0.000
TAMPA BAY    22 28 141 170 -0.011 25.322   23  0.361   23 -0.065   28 -0.115   23 0.4849  1.199  0.178 -0.408  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 20 29 120 145  0.004 25.109   24  0.310   24 -0.091   27 -0.115   24 0.4794  0.902 -0.177 -0.053  0.000
BUFFALO      21 30 122 151 -0.021 25.641   25  0.288   25 -0.100   29 -0.129   26 0.4762  0.875 -0.220 -0.038  0.000
EDMONTON     20 31 133 148  0.017 26.322   26  0.277   26 -0.106   21 -0.058   25 0.4771  1.040  0.039 -0.154  0.000
ANAHEIM      19 31 130 151  0.012 25.717   27  0.249   27 -0.117   24 -0.076   27 0.4726  1.081  0.070 -0.221  0.000
MONTREAL     19 32 134 142  0.026 26.461   28  0.240   28 -0.122   17 -0.028   28 0.4716  0.917 -0.072  0.017  0.000
CAROLINA     19 34 135 164 -0.006 26.934   29  0.162   29 -0.151   26 -0.103   29 0.4666  0.985 -0.071 -0.136  0.000
COLUMBUS     13 38 117 172  0.034 26.907   30  0.000   30 -0.244   30 -0.198   30 0.4458  1.019 -0.126 -0.271  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE     29 20 142 112 -0.011 24.420    7  0.638    8  0.090    6  0.120    7 0.5207  0.842 -0.007  0.246  0.000
DALLAS       26 24 134 143 -0.006 25.331   12  0.491   12  0.019   20 -0.047   12 0.5040  1.049  0.061 -0.156  0.000
LOS ANGELES  25 26 114 113 -0.023 25.378   18  0.437   18 -0.020   12 -0.000   18 0.4952  0.489 -0.473  0.472  0.000
PHOENIX      22 29 131 138  0.018 26.266   22  0.366   22 -0.064   14 -0.018   22 0.4858  0.904 -0.077  0.041  0.000
ANAHEIM      19 31 130 151  0.012 25.717   27  0.249   27 -0.117   24 -0.076   27 0.4726  1.081  0.070 -0.221  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    31 20 164 128  0.023 26.104    4  0.715    4  0.123    4  0.155    4 0.5267  1.061  0.277  0.033  0.000
MINNESOTA    25 26 120 131  0.019 26.302   16  0.464   16 -0.002   16 -0.027   16 0.4997  0.736 -0.265  0.210  0.000
COLORADO     26 27 133 148  0.012 27.285   17  0.456   17 -0.004   25 -0.088   17 0.4996  0.908 -0.142 -0.033  0.000
CALGARY      23 28 121 140  0.032 26.628   20  0.409   20 -0.037   22 -0.062   20 0.4922  0.852 -0.178  0.054  0.000
EDMONTON     20 31 133 148  0.017 26.322   26  0.277   26 -0.106   21 -0.058   25 0.4771  1.040  0.039 -0.154  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT      35 17 167 121  0.021 26.436    1  0.870    1  0.192    2  0.203    1 0.5434  1.010  0.266  0.141  0.000
ST. LOUIS    29 20 124 102  0.008 24.785    6  0.658    6  0.098    5  0.137    5 0.5234  0.613 -0.221  0.496  0.000
NASHVILLE    31 21 146 135 -0.025 25.759    8  0.634    7  0.092    9  0.040    8 0.5193  0.944  0.026  0.055  0.000
CHICAGO      29 23 168 155 -0.029 25.711   11  0.542   11  0.050   10  0.028   11 0.5094  1.222  0.351 -0.295  0.000
COLUMBUS     13 38 117 172  0.034 26.907   30  0.000   30 -0.244   30 -0.198   30 0.4458  1.019 -0.126 -0.271  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   26 24 141 145 -0.025 24.876   14  0.483   14  0.012   15 -0.020   13 0.5034  1.049  0.088 -0.128  0.000
FLORIDA      23 26 126 138  0.005 25.020   19  0.423   19 -0.028   18 -0.035   19 0.4949  0.876 -0.125  0.055  0.000
WINNIPEG     24 28 128 145 -0.010 26.281   21  0.398   21 -0.044   23 -0.072   21 0.4897  0.844 -0.197  0.053  0.000
TAMPA BAY    22 28 141 170 -0.011 25.322   23  0.361   23 -0.065   28 -0.115   23 0.4849  1.199  0.178 -0.408  0.000
CAROLINA     19 34 135 164 -0.006 26.934   29  0.162   29 -0.151   26 -0.103   29 0.4666  0.985 -0.071 -0.136  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON       32 17 175 108 -0.048 23.570    3  0.752    3  0.137    1  0.231    3 0.5302  1.040  0.328  0.134  0.000
OTTAWA       27 26 160 164  0.013 27.185   13  0.488   13  0.017   13 -0.009   14 0.5030  1.160  0.234 -0.253  0.000
TORONTO      26 25 156 152 -0.014 25.541   15  0.475   15  0.006   11  0.020   15 0.5004  1.160  0.263 -0.224  0.000
BUFFALO      21 30 122 151 -0.021 25.641   25  0.288   25 -0.100   29 -0.129   26 0.4762  0.875 -0.220 -0.038  0.000
MONTREAL     19 32 134 142  0.026 26.461   28  0.240   28 -0.122   17 -0.028   28 0.4716  0.917 -0.072  0.017  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY RANGERS   32 17 136 100 -0.007 24.466    2  0.789    2  0.154    3  0.164    2 0.5357  0.672 -0.138  0.466  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 30 20 167 145 -0.006 25.086    5  0.659    5  0.100    7  0.094    6 0.5233  1.226  0.423 -0.235  0.000
PITTSBURGH   29 22 157 132 -0.004 25.663    9  0.591    9  0.071    8  0.080    9 0.5169  1.017  0.150  0.010  0.000
NEW JERSEY   28 22 138 142 -0.023 24.969   10  0.549   10  0.054   19 -0.044   10 0.5121  0.979 -0.018 -0.070  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 20 29 120 145  0.004 25.109   24  0.310   24 -0.091   27 -0.115   24 0.4794  0.902 -0.177 -0.053  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   137 119 0.535    1  0.081
ATLANTIC DIVISION  139 110 0.558    2  0.068
NORTHEAST DIVISION 125 130 0.490    3  0.031
PACIFIC DIVISION   121 130 0.482    4 -0.009
NORTHWEST DIVISION 125 132 0.486    5 -0.032
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 114 140 0.449    6 -0.133

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.140 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Feb  3 05:30:09 2012
games through: Thu Feb  2 2012

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