Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        59 27 297 236 -0.012 41.638    1  0.356    1  0.357    4  0.247    1 0.5437   16  1.092    6  0.253    7  0.240
PANTHERS       56 31 287 214  0.010 42.830    2  0.285    2  0.286    2  0.278    2 0.5348   30  0.916   12  0.078    1  0.477
HURRICANES     56 31 298 228 -0.008 42.194    3  0.277    3  0.276    1  0.286    3 0.5333   23  1.031    7  0.218    3  0.353
STARS          54 32 309 245 -0.002 42.013    4  0.255    4  0.249    6  0.224    4 0.5308   11  1.158    5  0.311    9  0.137
AVALANCHE      54 33 332 269  0.004 42.666    5  0.248    5  0.239    5  0.238    5 0.5295    1  1.326    1  0.546   20 -0.070
JETS           53 34 274 227  0.007 42.849    6  0.227    6  0.217    9  0.181    6 0.5268   26  0.946   18  0.015    4  0.348
CANUCKS        53 34 290 235 -0.001 42.513    7  0.223    7  0.212    7  0.223    7 0.5259   22  1.036    9  0.161    6  0.285
OILERS         52 34 312 247  0.001 42.023    8  0.216    8  0.205    3  0.248    8 0.5242   10  1.184    3  0.368   10  0.128
BRUINS         50 37 282 233  0.016 43.185    9  0.167    9  0.157    8  0.219    9 0.5189   28  0.937   15  0.043    2  0.395
PREDATORS      49 38 281 260  0.009 43.068   10  0.132   10  0.130   12  0.102   10 0.5158   12  1.114   11  0.135   11  0.069
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    48 39 312 278  0.026 43.601   11  0.116   11  0.117   10  0.147   11 0.5140    4  1.265    2  0.373   21 -0.079
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 39 278 256 -0.006 42.107   12  0.076   12  0.084   14  0.069   12 0.5105   15  1.094   13  0.076   13  0.061
LIGHTNING      46 41 305 288  0.023 43.638   13  0.065   13  0.072   13  0.080   13 0.5087    2  1.299    4  0.352   22 -0.191
KINGS          45 41 266 233  0.001 42.222   14  0.040   14  0.044   11  0.141   14 0.5051   29  0.935   21 -0.038    5  0.319
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.011 40.275   15  0.028   15  0.036   20 -0.066   15 0.5048   25  1.010   26 -0.158   16  0.025
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.005 40.660   16 -0.000   16  0.000   16 -0.003   16 0.4999    5  1.238    8  0.187   24 -0.194
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.001 40.541   17 -0.041   18 -0.048   17 -0.007   19 0.4937   24  1.028   22 -0.078   12  0.065
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.002 40.474   18 -0.042   17 -0.048   18 -0.026   17 0.4940   13  1.112   20  0.005   19 -0.056
CAPITALS       40 46 227 272  0.019 43.391   19 -0.048   19 -0.053   27 -0.140   18 0.4940   27  0.937   28 -0.316   15  0.036
ISLANDERS      40 47 258 282  0.025 43.992   20 -0.051   20 -0.060   22 -0.071   20 0.4927   18  1.059   23 -0.106   18 -0.037
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.004 40.753   21 -0.059   21 -0.067   19 -0.065   21 0.4912   21  1.040   24 -0.123   17 -0.008
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251 -0.001 40.408   22 -0.062   23 -0.074   15  0.030   24 0.4907   17  1.074   19  0.014   14  0.046
FLAMES         38 44 253 271 -0.001 40.643   23 -0.064   22 -0.074   23 -0.093   22 0.4908    7  1.194   16  0.040   26 -0.227
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.003 40.573   24 -0.066   24 -0.075   24 -0.100   23 0.4908    3  1.274   10  0.138   29 -0.339
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.009 40.963   25 -0.082   25 -0.089   25 -0.109   25 0.4887    6  1.200   17  0.032   27 -0.251
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.003 40.537   26 -0.117   26 -0.122   21 -0.066   26 0.4852    8  1.189   14  0.060   23 -0.193
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.020 40.078   27 -0.184   27 -0.180   26 -0.118   27 0.4776   32  0.837   29 -0.404    8  0.169
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.009 41.124   28 -0.250   28 -0.255   28 -0.202   28 0.4682   14  1.105   27 -0.180   25 -0.224
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.005 41.142   29 -0.319   29 -0.329   29 -0.275   29 0.4593    9  1.185   25 -0.153   31 -0.397
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.018 40.700   30 -0.337   30 -0.342   30 -0.410   30 0.4574   19  1.053   30 -0.451   30 -0.369
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.005 41.259   31 -0.444   31 -0.437   31 -0.507   31 0.4474   31  0.888   32 -0.738   28 -0.276
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.015 40.990   32 -0.542   32 -0.548   32 -0.600   32 0.4341   20  1.043   31 -0.654   32 -0.546

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS        53 34 290 235 -0.001 42.513    7  0.223    7  0.212    7  0.223    7 0.5259   22  1.036    9  0.161    6  0.285
OILERS         52 34 312 247  0.001 42.023    8  0.216    8  0.205    3  0.248    8 0.5242   10  1.184    3  0.368   10  0.128
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 39 278 256 -0.006 42.107   12  0.076   12  0.084   14  0.069   12 0.5105   15  1.094   13  0.076   13  0.061
KINGS          45 41 266 233  0.001 42.222   14  0.040   14  0.044   11  0.141   14 0.5051   29  0.935   21 -0.038    5  0.319
FLAMES         38 44 253 271 -0.001 40.643   23 -0.064   22 -0.074   23 -0.093   22 0.4908    7  1.194   16  0.040   26 -0.227
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.020 40.078   27 -0.184   27 -0.180   26 -0.118   27 0.4776   32  0.837   29 -0.404    8  0.169
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.018 40.700   30 -0.337   30 -0.342   30 -0.410   30 0.4574   19  1.053   30 -0.451   30 -0.369
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.015 40.990   32 -0.542   32 -0.548   32 -0.600   32 0.4341   20  1.043   31 -0.654   32 -0.546

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS          54 32 309 245 -0.002 42.013    4  0.255    4  0.249    6  0.224    4 0.5308   11  1.158    5  0.311    9  0.137
AVALANCHE      54 33 332 269  0.004 42.666    5  0.248    5  0.239    5  0.238    5 0.5295    1  1.326    1  0.546   20 -0.070
JETS           53 34 274 227  0.007 42.849    6  0.227    6  0.217    9  0.181    6 0.5268   26  0.946   18  0.015    4  0.348
PREDATORS      49 38 281 260  0.009 43.068   10  0.132   10  0.130   12  0.102   10 0.5158   12  1.114   11  0.135   11  0.069
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.011 40.275   15  0.028   15  0.036   20 -0.066   15 0.5048   25  1.010   26 -0.158   16  0.025
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.002 40.474   18 -0.042   17 -0.048   18 -0.026   17 0.4940   13  1.112   20  0.005   19 -0.056
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.003 40.537   26 -0.117   26 -0.122   21 -0.066   26 0.4852    8  1.189   14  0.060   23 -0.193
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.005 41.259   31 -0.444   31 -0.437   31 -0.507   31 0.4474   31  0.888   32 -0.738   28 -0.276

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       56 31 287 214  0.010 42.830    2  0.285    2  0.286    2  0.278    2 0.5348   30  0.916   12  0.078    1  0.477
BRUINS         50 37 282 233  0.016 43.185    9  0.167    9  0.157    8  0.219    9 0.5189   28  0.937   15  0.043    2  0.395
MAPLE LEAFS    48 39 312 278  0.026 43.601   11  0.116   11  0.117   10  0.147   11 0.5140    4  1.265    2  0.373   21 -0.079
LIGHTNING      46 41 305 288  0.023 43.638   13  0.065   13  0.072   13  0.080   13 0.5087    2  1.299    4  0.352   22 -0.191
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.005 40.660   16 -0.000   16  0.000   16 -0.003   16 0.4999    5  1.238    8  0.187   24 -0.194
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.001 40.541   17 -0.041   18 -0.048   17 -0.007   19 0.4937   24  1.028   22 -0.078   12  0.065
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.009 40.963   25 -0.082   25 -0.089   25 -0.109   25 0.4887    6  1.200   17  0.032   27 -0.251
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.009 41.124   28 -0.250   28 -0.255   28 -0.202   28 0.4682   14  1.105   27 -0.180   25 -0.224

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        59 27 297 236 -0.012 41.638    1  0.356    1  0.357    4  0.247    1 0.5437   16  1.092    6  0.253    7  0.240
HURRICANES     56 31 298 228 -0.008 42.194    3  0.277    3  0.276    1  0.286    3 0.5333   23  1.031    7  0.218    3  0.353
CAPITALS       40 46 227 272  0.019 43.391   19 -0.048   19 -0.053   27 -0.140   18 0.4940   27  0.937   28 -0.316   15  0.036
ISLANDERS      40 47 258 282  0.025 43.992   20 -0.051   20 -0.060   22 -0.071   20 0.4927   18  1.059   23 -0.106   18 -0.037
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.004 40.753   21 -0.059   21 -0.067   19 -0.065   21 0.4912   21  1.040   24 -0.123   17 -0.008
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251 -0.001 40.408   22 -0.062   23 -0.074   15  0.030   24 0.4907   17  1.074   19  0.014   14  0.046
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.003 40.573   24 -0.066   24 -0.075   24 -0.100   23 0.4908    3  1.274   10  0.138   29 -0.339
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.005 41.142   29 -0.319   29 -0.329   29 -0.275   29 0.4593    9  1.185   25 -0.153   31 -0.397

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     347 329 0.513    1  0.061
CENTRAL DIVISION      351 324 0.520    2  0.016
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 336 338 0.499    3 -0.014
PACIFIC DIVISION      315 358 0.468    4 -0.077

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.099 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed May  1 05:30:10 2024
games through: Tue Apr 30 2024

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