Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        50 37 10685 10431  0.006 42.018   14  0.176   14  0.163    6  0.257   13 0.5165    1  4.094    1  0.948   24 -0.434
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.036 40.023   21 -0.180   21 -0.179   21 -0.205   21 0.4806    2  4.056   10  0.281   27 -0.690
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.075 39.899   29 -0.839   29 -0.868   27 -0.596   29 0.4196    3  4.049   19 -0.149   30 -1.043
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.013 41.573   22 -0.265   22 -0.269   24 -0.343   22 0.4742    4  4.036   15  0.033   28 -0.720
BUCKS         50 36 10204 10007  0.005 41.646   11  0.197   11  0.187   17  0.100   12 0.5181    5  4.018    6  0.384   21 -0.185
LAKERS        50 38 10338 10280  0.056 44.640    9  0.220    8  0.217   15  0.136    9 0.5219    6  4.016    5  0.410   20 -0.137
MAVERICKS     52 34 10069  9891  0.031 42.533    7  0.268    7  0.267   10  0.196    6 0.5276    7  4.011    4  0.440   17 -0.048
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.031 40.979   15  0.161   15  0.151   11  0.192   15 0.5155    8  4.000    7  0.379   16  0.004
THUNDER       60 25 10171  9508  0.055 41.551    2  0.551    2  0.530    2  0.564    2 0.5519    9  3.994    3  0.721    7  0.406
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.056 39.920   25 -0.498   25 -0.502   26 -0.591   25 0.4497   10  3.991   25 -0.448   29 -0.733
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.003 41.580   26 -0.536   26 -0.546   22 -0.288   26 0.4474   11  3.986   20 -0.172   23 -0.404
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.058 42.375   12  0.191   12  0.182    7  0.235   11 0.5191   12  3.982    8  0.332   12  0.137
SUNS          49 37  9945  9754  0.043 42.848   10  0.205   10  0.195    9  0.210   10 0.5201   13  3.978    9  0.283   13  0.136
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.067 40.179   30 -0.865   30 -0.897   28 -0.604   30 0.4177   14  3.976   27 -0.539   26 -0.669
CELTICS       66 19 10206  9246  0.026 40.071    1  0.723    1  0.695    1  0.728    1 0.5639   15  3.966    2  0.741    2  0.714
CLIPPERS      53 33  9889  9617  0.036 42.452    5  0.304    5  0.304   14  0.146    5 0.5312   16  3.962   12  0.138   11  0.153
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.013 40.199   19  0.015   19  0.009   18  0.069   19 0.5013   17  3.953   18  0.015   14  0.123
76ERS         49 38  9924  9677 -0.007 41.593   17  0.148   17  0.137   16  0.107   17 0.5119   18  3.947   17  0.021   10  0.193
PELICANS      50 37  9916  9606  0.054 43.416    8  0.225    9  0.212    8  0.227    8 0.5220   19  3.939   13  0.103    8  0.350
NUGGETS       60 26  9853  9413  0.037 42.017    3  0.526    3  0.513    4  0.362    4 0.5497   20  3.936   11  0.224    6  0.500
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.041 40.178   20 -0.080   20 -0.087   20 -0.111   20 0.4901   21  3.930   23 -0.281   15  0.058
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.067 40.233   28 -0.624   28 -0.625   30 -0.673   28 0.4381   22  3.927   28 -0.857   25 -0.488
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.038 39.661   23 -0.284   23 -0.292   23 -0.289   23 0.4701   23  3.925   26 -0.484   18 -0.095
CAVALIERS     50 36  9601  9440 -0.014 41.126   13  0.181   13  0.172   19  0.002   14 0.5163   24  3.908   22 -0.279    9  0.283
KNICKS        53 33  9675  9295  0.023 41.589    6  0.294    6  0.291    5  0.314    7 0.5268   25  3.906   16  0.023    3  0.606
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.011 41.730   27 -0.594   27 -0.598   29 -0.609   27 0.4444   26  3.898   30 -0.939   22 -0.280
TIMBERWOLVES  60 26  9737  9148  0.049 41.972    4  0.521    4  0.500    3  0.479    3 0.5500   27  3.887   14  0.094    1  0.864
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.023 40.991   24 -0.406   24 -0.404   25 -0.511   24 0.4601   28  3.882   29 -0.920   19 -0.103
HEAT          48 39  9537  9403 -0.011 41.776   18  0.113   18  0.109   13  0.152   18 0.5093   29  3.878   21 -0.277    5  0.581
MAGIC         49 37  9460  9257 -0.023 40.725   16  0.154   16  0.145   12  0.158   16 0.5129   30  3.876   24 -0.282    4  0.597
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        50 38 10338 10280  0.056 44.640    9  0.220    8  0.217   15  0.136    9 0.5219    6  4.016    5  0.410   20 -0.137
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.031 40.979   15  0.161   15  0.151   11  0.192   15 0.5155    8  4.000    7  0.379   16  0.004
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.058 42.375   12  0.191   12  0.182    7  0.235   11 0.5191   12  3.982    8  0.332   12  0.137
SUNS          49 37  9945  9754  0.043 42.848   10  0.205   10  0.195    9  0.210   10 0.5201   13  3.978    9  0.283   13  0.136
CLIPPERS      53 33  9889  9617  0.036 42.452    5  0.304    5  0.304   14  0.146    5 0.5312   16  3.962   12  0.138   11  0.153

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.013 41.573   22 -0.265   22 -0.269   24 -0.343   22 0.4742    4  4.036   15  0.033   28 -0.720
THUNDER       60 25 10171  9508  0.055 41.551    2  0.551    2  0.530    2  0.564    2 0.5519    9  3.994    3  0.721    7  0.406
NUGGETS       60 26  9853  9413  0.037 42.017    3  0.526    3  0.513    4  0.362    4 0.5497   20  3.936   11  0.224    6  0.500
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.011 41.730   27 -0.594   27 -0.598   29 -0.609   27 0.4444   26  3.898   30 -0.939   22 -0.280
TIMBERWOLVES  60 26  9737  9148  0.049 41.972    4  0.521    4  0.500    3  0.479    3 0.5500   27  3.887   14  0.094    1  0.864

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     52 34 10069  9891  0.031 42.533    7  0.268    7  0.267   10  0.196    6 0.5276    7  4.011    4  0.440   17 -0.048
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.003 41.580   26 -0.536   26 -0.546   22 -0.288   26 0.4474   11  3.986   20 -0.172   23 -0.404
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.013 40.199   19  0.015   19  0.009   18  0.069   19 0.5013   17  3.953   18  0.015   14  0.123
PELICANS      50 37  9916  9606  0.054 43.416    8  0.225    9  0.212    8  0.227    8 0.5220   19  3.939   13  0.103    8  0.350
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.023 40.991   24 -0.406   24 -0.404   25 -0.511   24 0.4601   28  3.882   29 -0.920   19 -0.103

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        50 37 10685 10431  0.006 42.018   14  0.176   14  0.163    6  0.257   13 0.5165    1  4.094    1  0.948   24 -0.434
BUCKS         50 36 10204 10007  0.005 41.646   11  0.197   11  0.187   17  0.100   12 0.5181    5  4.018    6  0.384   21 -0.185
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.067 40.179   30 -0.865   30 -0.897   28 -0.604   30 0.4177   14  3.976   27 -0.539   26 -0.669
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.041 40.178   20 -0.080   20 -0.087   20 -0.111   20 0.4901   21  3.930   23 -0.281   15  0.058
CAVALIERS     50 36  9601  9440 -0.014 41.126   13  0.181   13  0.172   19  0.002   14 0.5163   24  3.908   22 -0.279    9  0.283

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.036 40.023   21 -0.180   21 -0.179   21 -0.205   21 0.4806    2  4.056   10  0.281   27 -0.690
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.075 39.899   29 -0.839   29 -0.868   27 -0.596   29 0.4196    3  4.049   19 -0.149   30 -1.043
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.067 40.233   28 -0.624   28 -0.625   30 -0.673   28 0.4381   22  3.927   28 -0.857   25 -0.488
HEAT          48 39  9537  9403 -0.011 41.776   18  0.113   18  0.109   13  0.152   18 0.5093   29  3.878   21 -0.277    5  0.581
MAGIC         49 37  9460  9257 -0.023 40.725   16  0.154   16  0.145   12  0.158   16 0.5129   30  3.876   24 -0.282    4  0.597

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.056 39.920   25 -0.498   25 -0.502   26 -0.591   25 0.4497   10  3.991   25 -0.448   29 -0.733
CELTICS       66 19 10206  9246  0.026 40.071    1  0.723    1  0.695    1  0.728    1 0.5639   15  3.966    2  0.741    2  0.714
76ERS         49 38  9924  9677 -0.007 41.593   17  0.148   17  0.137   16  0.107   17 0.5119   18  3.947   17  0.021   10  0.193
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.038 39.661   23 -0.284   23 -0.292   23 -0.289   23 0.4701   23  3.925   26 -0.484   18 -0.095
KNICKS        53 33  9675  9295  0.023 41.589    6  0.294    6  0.291    5  0.314    7 0.5268   25  3.906   16  0.023    3  0.606

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   245 182 0.574    1  0.185
NORTHWEST DIVISION 232 189 0.551    2  0.120
ATLANTIC DIVISION  225 197 0.533    3  0.116
CENTRAL DIVISION   204 221 0.480    4 -0.071
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 192 227 0.458    5 -0.084
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 169 251 0.402    6 -0.292

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.183 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Apr 29 05:30:19 2024
games through: Sun Apr 28 2024

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