Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       21  6 2636 2388  0.059 12.474    2  1.671    2  0.593    1  0.567    2 0.5635  3.763  0.507  0.626  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  18  7 2417 2166 -0.075 10.232    7  1.401    7  0.335    2  0.481    7 0.5337  3.710  0.180  0.783  0.000
MIAMI         18  6 2476 2293  0.063 11.393    3  1.587    3  0.519    3  0.451    3 0.5555  3.856  0.831  0.070  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   17  9 2541 2432  0.144 13.605    5  1.445    5  0.390    4  0.379    6 0.5462  3.777  0.385  0.373  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 19  5 2410 2295  0.127 12.295    1  1.743    1  0.659    5  0.377    1 0.5727  3.859  0.773 -0.020  0.000
PORTLAND      14 11 2464 2312  0.023 11.730   14  1.089   15  0.104    6  0.373   12 0.5157  3.776  0.375  0.371  0.000
DENVER        15 10 2601 2483  0.094 12.464    9  1.265    9  0.241    7  0.311    9 0.5261  3.901  0.913 -0.291  0.000
ATLANTA       16  9 2401 2286  0.015 11.689    8  1.305    8  0.275    8  0.225    8 0.5275  3.740  0.058  0.391  0.000
LA LAKERS     14 11 2329 2274  0.122 12.975   10  1.208   10  0.198    9  0.219   10 0.5240  3.707 -0.098  0.536  0.000
INDIANA       16  7 2163 2087  0.022 10.969    6  1.438    6  0.384   10  0.214    5 0.5486  3.763  0.154  0.274  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA CLIPPERS   15  7 2186 2138  0.112 11.406    4  1.474    4  0.425   11  0.212    4 0.5526  3.831  0.471 -0.046  0.000
DALLAS        14 11 2345 2278  0.037 12.213   13  1.126   13  0.137   12  0.192   11 0.5184  3.726 -0.037  0.421  0.000
HOUSTON       14 11 2452 2406  0.038 12.235   11  1.140   11  0.143   13  0.158   14 0.5154  3.807  0.302  0.013  0.000
MEMPHIS       12 13 2319 2303  0.176 13.684   16  1.058   16  0.089   14  0.156   16 0.5104  3.728 -0.064  0.377  0.000
BOSTON        13 10 2085 1993 -0.198  9.149   18  0.915   18 -0.036   15  0.138   18 0.4978  3.677 -0.313  0.590  0.000
MINNESOTA     12 12 2335 2296  0.021 11.697   17  0.966   17  0.012   16  0.120   17 0.5036  3.828  0.366 -0.126  0.000
UTAH          13 10 2229 2228 -0.017 11.011   15  1.086   14  0.114   17 -0.014   15 0.5111  3.808  0.136 -0.163  0.000
MILWAUKEE     10 13 2160 2189  0.069 11.904   19  0.869   19 -0.071   18 -0.016   19 0.4907  3.778 -0.004 -0.028  0.000
ORLANDO       15 10 2314 2292 -0.114 11.163   12  1.127   12  0.137   19 -0.088   13 0.5156  3.735 -0.278  0.103  0.000
NEW YORK      10 15 2376 2374 -0.189 10.608   24  0.547   24 -0.362   20 -0.132   25 0.4600  3.785 -0.090 -0.173  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHOENIX       10 14 2227 2309  0.028 12.340   21  0.780   21 -0.137   21 -0.184   21 0.4761  3.809 -0.029 -0.340  0.000
GOLDEN STATE   8 13 2052 2100 -0.094  9.620   23  0.638   23 -0.278   22 -0.189   23 0.4702  3.846  0.143 -0.522  0.000
CLEVELAND      9 13 2057 2127 -0.108 10.303   22  0.676   22 -0.234   23 -0.263   22 0.4719  3.805 -0.127 -0.399  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    4 21 2199 2336  0.049 13.076   28  0.224   28 -0.648   24 -0.303   28 0.4257  3.694 -0.678  0.073  0.000
TORONTO        8 18 2281 2445 -0.013 13.364   26  0.515   26 -0.377   25 -0.401   26 0.4597  3.686 -0.813  0.012  0.000
SACRAMENTO     9 15 2211 2429  0.104 13.357   20  0.783   20 -0.132   26 -0.425   20 0.4773  3.822 -0.205 -0.644  0.000
NEW JERSEY     8 18 2404 2588 -0.021 13.356   25  0.526   25 -0.363   27 -0.428   24 0.4603  3.810 -0.269 -0.588  0.000
DETROIT        6 20 2243 2493 -0.012 13.587   27  0.341   27 -0.533   28 -0.582   27 0.4385  3.715 -0.864 -0.300  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 20 2249 2493 -0.134 12.296   29  0.193   29 -0.679   29 -0.657   29 0.4247  3.802 -0.533 -0.780  0.000
CHARLOTTE      3 21 2096 2425 -0.170 11.897   30  0.000   30 -0.842   30 -0.933   30 0.4067  3.767 -0.975 -0.892  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     14 11 2329 2274  0.122 12.975   10  1.208   10  0.198    9  0.219   10 0.5240  3.707 -0.098  0.536  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   15  7 2186 2138  0.112 11.406    4  1.474    4  0.425   11  0.212    4 0.5526  3.831  0.471 -0.046  0.000
PHOENIX       10 14 2227 2309  0.028 12.340   21  0.780   21 -0.137   21 -0.184   21 0.4761  3.809 -0.029 -0.340  0.000
GOLDEN STATE   8 13 2052 2100 -0.094  9.620   23  0.638   23 -0.278   22 -0.189   23 0.4702  3.846  0.143 -0.522  0.000
SACRAMENTO     9 15 2211 2429  0.104 13.357   20  0.783   20 -0.132   26 -0.425   20 0.4773  3.822 -0.205 -0.644  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 19  5 2410 2295  0.127 12.295    1  1.743    1  0.659    5  0.377    1 0.5727  3.859  0.773 -0.020  0.000
PORTLAND      14 11 2464 2312  0.023 11.730   14  1.089   15  0.104    6  0.373   12 0.5157  3.776  0.375  0.371  0.000
DENVER        15 10 2601 2483  0.094 12.464    9  1.265    9  0.241    7  0.311    9 0.5261  3.901  0.913 -0.291  0.000
MINNESOTA     12 12 2335 2296  0.021 11.697   17  0.966   17  0.012   16  0.120   17 0.5036  3.828  0.366 -0.126  0.000
UTAH          13 10 2229 2228 -0.017 11.011   15  1.086   14  0.114   17 -0.014   15 0.5111  3.808  0.136 -0.163  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   17  9 2541 2432  0.144 13.605    5  1.445    5  0.390    4  0.379    6 0.5462  3.777  0.385  0.373  0.000
DALLAS        14 11 2345 2278  0.037 12.213   13  1.126   13  0.137   12  0.192   11 0.5184  3.726 -0.037  0.421  0.000
HOUSTON       14 11 2452 2406  0.038 12.235   11  1.140   11  0.143   13  0.158   14 0.5154  3.807  0.302  0.013  0.000
MEMPHIS       12 13 2319 2303  0.176 13.684   16  1.058   16  0.089   14  0.156   16 0.5104  3.728 -0.064  0.377  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    4 21 2199 2336  0.049 13.076   28  0.224   28 -0.648   24 -0.303   28 0.4257  3.694 -0.678  0.073  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       21  6 2636 2388  0.059 12.474    2  1.671    2  0.593    1  0.567    2 0.5635  3.763  0.507  0.626  0.000
INDIANA       16  7 2163 2087  0.022 10.969    6  1.438    6  0.384   10  0.214    5 0.5486  3.763  0.154  0.274  0.000
MILWAUKEE     10 13 2160 2189  0.069 11.904   19  0.869   19 -0.071   18 -0.016   19 0.4907  3.778 -0.004 -0.028  0.000
CLEVELAND      9 13 2057 2127 -0.108 10.303   22  0.676   22 -0.234   23 -0.263   22 0.4719  3.805 -0.127 -0.399  0.000
DETROIT        6 20 2243 2493 -0.012 13.587   27  0.341   27 -0.533   28 -0.582   27 0.4385  3.715 -0.864 -0.300  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         18  6 2476 2293  0.063 11.393    3  1.587    3  0.519    3  0.451    3 0.5555  3.856  0.831  0.070  0.000
ATLANTA       16  9 2401 2286  0.015 11.689    8  1.305    8  0.275    8  0.225    8 0.5275  3.740  0.058  0.391  0.000
ORLANDO       15 10 2314 2292 -0.114 11.163   12  1.127   12  0.137   19 -0.088   13 0.5156  3.735 -0.278  0.103  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 20 2249 2493 -0.134 12.296   29  0.193   29 -0.679   29 -0.657   29 0.4247  3.802 -0.533 -0.780  0.000
CHARLOTTE      3 21 2096 2425 -0.170 11.897   30  0.000   30 -0.842   30 -0.933   30 0.4067  3.767 -0.975 -0.892  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  18  7 2417 2166 -0.075 10.232    7  1.401    7  0.335    2  0.481    7 0.5337  3.710  0.180  0.783  0.000
BOSTON        13 10 2085 1993 -0.198  9.149   18  0.915   18 -0.036   15  0.138   18 0.4978  3.677 -0.313  0.590  0.000
NEW YORK      10 15 2376 2374 -0.189 10.608   24  0.547   24 -0.362   20 -0.132   25 0.4600  3.785 -0.090 -0.173  0.000
TORONTO        8 18 2281 2445 -0.013 13.364   26  0.515   26 -0.377   25 -0.401   26 0.4597  3.686 -0.813  0.012  0.000
NEW JERSEY     8 18 2404 2588 -0.021 13.356   25  0.526   25 -0.363   27 -0.428   24 0.4603  3.810 -0.269 -0.588  0.000

DIVISION            W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 73 48 0.603    1  0.302
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 61 65 0.484    2  0.147
CENTRAL DIVISION   62 59 0.512    3 -0.028
PACIFIC DIVISION   56 60 0.483    4 -0.099
ATLANTIC DIVISION  57 68 0.456    5 -0.104
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 57 66 0.463    6 -0.225

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.293 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Feb  7 05:30:11 2012
games through: Mon Feb  6 2012

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