Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.010 40.943    2  0.749    2  0.737    2  0.707    2 0.5668    5  4.027    1  1.053    8  0.361
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.350    1  0.918    1  0.910    1  0.925    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.925    1  0.925
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.066 45.049   12  0.200   12  0.182   12  0.197   12 0.5173    1  4.058    3  0.711   20 -0.317
NUGGETS       53 34 10431 10129  0.045 44.124    6  0.296    5  0.291    9  0.223    6 0.5280    4  4.036    4  0.616   18 -0.169
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.022 42.186   10  0.270   10  0.266    8  0.244    9 0.5264    7  4.001    5  0.455   15  0.033
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.045 40.666   19 -0.103   19 -0.110   17 -0.063   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.405   26 -0.530
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.006 41.077    3  0.602    3  0.589    3  0.591    3 0.5555   24  3.921    7  0.392    3  0.790
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.040 41.216   18 -0.072   18 -0.081   20 -0.101   18 0.4917    2  4.054    8  0.388   27 -0.590
PISTONS       46 41  9998  9847  0.013 43.453   14  0.071   14  0.066   10  0.202   14 0.5075   14  3.969    9  0.249   12  0.156
TIMBERWOLVES  53 34  9909  9464  0.048 43.760    5  0.298    6  0.285    5  0.436    5 0.5288   25  3.915   10  0.207    5  0.665
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.002 43.517   13  0.171   13  0.158   13  0.137   13 0.5166   15  3.968   11  0.175   13  0.099
WARRIORS      52 36  9969  9700  0.058 45.184    9  0.271    9  0.266    6  0.296   10 0.5252   22  3.934   12  0.164    7  0.429
KNICKS        54 33 10026  9685 -0.008 42.281    7  0.285    7  0.278   11  0.199    7 0.5267   19  3.949   13  0.139   10  0.260
ROCKETS       54 33  9896  9520  0.073 44.732    4  0.352    4  0.342    7  0.296    4 0.5330   23  3.926   14  0.123    6  0.468
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.001 41.469   16 -0.026   16 -0.039   15 -0.009   17 0.4953    9  3.984   15  0.113   16 -0.132
CLIPPERS      52 35  9802  9403  0.059 44.214    8  0.285    8  0.274    4  0.453    8 0.5265   27  3.893   16  0.112    2  0.794
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.038 44.556   11  0.248   11  0.242   14  0.124   11 0.5226   20  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.208
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.005 41.517   23 -0.195   23 -0.201   22 -0.212   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.028   23 -0.397
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.088   15 -0.013   15 -0.021   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.323
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.003 41.814   20 -0.130   20 -0.135   23 -0.218   20 0.4863   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.323
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.009 41.464   22 -0.147   22 -0.151   18 -0.064   22 0.4855   21  3.936   21 -0.185   14  0.058
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.052 40.572   24 -0.359   24 -0.369   24 -0.305   24 0.4653   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.014 42.649   29 -0.727   29 -0.742   28 -0.658   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.411   29 -0.906
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.010 43.881   21 -0.143   21 -0.150   19 -0.073   21 0.4861   28  3.885   24 -0.450    9  0.305
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.014 42.711   27 -0.602   27 -0.611   27 -0.633   27 0.4435   13  3.976   25 -0.554   28 -0.712
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.063 40.670   26 -0.540   26 -0.552   25 -0.529   26 0.4476   18  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.469
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.020 43.573   17 -0.030   17 -0.042   16 -0.038   16 0.4960   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.674
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.076 41.444   30 -0.744   30 -0.752   30 -0.860   30 0.4309   12  3.977   28 -0.773   30 -0.947
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.054 41.184   25 -0.472   25 -0.473   26 -0.568   25 0.4546   29  3.875   29 -0.997   17 -0.138
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.082 40.789   28 -0.715   28 -0.727   29 -0.763   28 0.4326   26  3.895   30 -1.093   24 -0.432
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WARRIORS      52 36  9969  9700  0.058 45.184    9  0.271    9  0.266    6  0.296   10 0.5252   22  3.934   12  0.164    7  0.429
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.001 41.469   16 -0.026   16 -0.039   15 -0.009   17 0.4953    9  3.984   15  0.113   16 -0.132
CLIPPERS      52 35  9802  9403  0.059 44.214    8  0.285    8  0.274    4  0.453    8 0.5265   27  3.893   16  0.112    2  0.794
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.038 44.556   11  0.248   11  0.242   14  0.124   11 0.5226   20  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.208
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.003 41.814   20 -0.130   20 -0.135   23 -0.218   20 0.4863   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.323

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.350    1  0.918    1  0.910    1  0.925    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.925    1  0.925
NUGGETS       53 34 10431 10129  0.045 44.124    6  0.296    5  0.291    9  0.223    6 0.5280    4  4.036    4  0.616   18 -0.169
TIMBERWOLVES  53 34  9909  9464  0.048 43.760    5  0.298    6  0.285    5  0.436    5 0.5288   25  3.915   10  0.207    5  0.665
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.009 41.464   22 -0.147   22 -0.151   18 -0.064   22 0.4855   21  3.936   21 -0.185   14  0.058
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.014 42.649   29 -0.727   29 -0.742   28 -0.658   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.411   29 -0.906

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.066 45.049   12  0.200   12  0.182   12  0.197   12 0.5173    1  4.058    3  0.711   20 -0.317
ROCKETS       54 33  9896  9520  0.073 44.732    4  0.352    4  0.342    7  0.296    4 0.5330   23  3.926   14  0.123    6  0.468
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.005 41.517   23 -0.195   23 -0.201   22 -0.212   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.028   23 -0.397
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.088   15 -0.013   15 -0.021   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.323
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.014 42.711   27 -0.602   27 -0.611   27 -0.633   27 0.4435   13  3.976   25 -0.554   28 -0.712

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.010 40.943    2  0.749    2  0.737    2  0.707    2 0.5668    5  4.027    1  1.053    8  0.361
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.022 42.186   10  0.270   10  0.266    8  0.244    9 0.5264    7  4.001    5  0.455   15  0.033
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.045 40.666   19 -0.103   19 -0.110   17 -0.063   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.405   26 -0.530
PISTONS       46 41  9998  9847  0.013 43.453   14  0.071   14  0.066   10  0.202   14 0.5075   14  3.969    9  0.249   12  0.156
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.002 43.517   13  0.171   13  0.158   13  0.137   13 0.5166   15  3.968   11  0.175   13  0.099

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.040 41.216   18 -0.072   18 -0.081   20 -0.101   18 0.4917    2  4.054    8  0.388   27 -0.590
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.010 43.881   21 -0.143   21 -0.150   19 -0.073   21 0.4861   28  3.885   24 -0.450    9  0.305
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.020 43.573   17 -0.030   17 -0.042   16 -0.038   16 0.4960   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.674
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.076 41.444   30 -0.744   30 -0.752   30 -0.860   30 0.4309   12  3.977   28 -0.773   30 -0.947
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.082 40.789   28 -0.715   28 -0.727   29 -0.763   28 0.4326   26  3.895   30 -1.093   24 -0.432

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.006 41.077    3  0.602    3  0.589    3  0.591    3 0.5555   24  3.921    7  0.392    3  0.790
KNICKS        54 33 10026  9685 -0.008 42.281    7  0.285    7  0.278   11  0.199    7 0.5267   19  3.949   13  0.139   10  0.260
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.052 40.572   24 -0.359   24 -0.369   24 -0.305   24 0.4653   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.063 40.670   26 -0.540   26 -0.552   25 -0.529   26 0.4476   18  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.469
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.054 41.184   25 -0.472   25 -0.473   26 -0.568   25 0.4546   29  3.875   29 -0.997   17 -0.138

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   257 174 0.596    1  0.201
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 194 0.544    2  0.163
PACIFIC DIVISION   231 196 0.541    3  0.112
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 198 225 0.468    4 -0.044
ATLANTIC DIVISION  199 221 0.474    5 -0.106
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 265 0.375    6 -0.387

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.144 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May  1 05:30:11 2025
games through: Wed Apr 30 2025

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