Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 18 10001  9051  0.028 38.997    1  0.729    1  0.716    1  0.745    1 0.5656   16  3.969    2  0.768    2  0.722
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.034 40.787    2  0.524    2  0.522    4  0.379    2 0.5504   20  3.937   11  0.240    5  0.518
THUNDER       58 25  9941  9331  0.051 40.383    3  0.521    3  0.509    2  0.489    3 0.5501    9  3.998    3  0.663    9  0.314
TIMBERWOLVES  57 26  9384  8830  0.044 40.234    4  0.482    4  0.467    3  0.442    4 0.5470   27  3.885   14  0.040    1  0.844
CLIPPERS      52 31  9590  9309  0.034 40.719    5  0.324    5  0.326   12  0.163    5 0.5331   15  3.971   13  0.195   14  0.131
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.019 40.308    6  0.294    6  0.294    5  0.326    6 0.5273   25  3.906   15  0.030    3  0.622
MAVERICKS     50 33  9761  9592  0.029 40.845    7  0.259    7  0.259   11  0.184    7 0.5265    6  4.019    4  0.467   19 -0.100
PELICANS      50 35  9739  9376  0.047 41.905    8  0.245    8  0.234    6  0.307    8 0.5245   19  3.943   12  0.200    7  0.414
SUNS          49 34  9627  9401  0.032 40.785    9  0.239    9  0.232    7  0.259    9 0.5240   13  3.976    9  0.317   10  0.200
BUCKS         50 33  9865  9635  0.001 39.820   10  0.238   10  0.232   14  0.148   10 0.5227    5  4.023    5  0.454   21 -0.157
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.057 43.524   11  0.227   11  0.222   15  0.134   11 0.5220    7  4.017    6  0.405   20 -0.138
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.064 42.415   13  0.195   13  0.187    8  0.242   12 0.5196   12  3.981    8  0.329   12  0.155
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.017 39.757   12  0.207   12  0.199   17  0.098   13 0.5192   24  3.909   21 -0.183    8  0.379
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.035 40.965   14  0.163   14  0.155   10  0.196   14 0.5160    8  3.999    7  0.374   16  0.019
PACERS        47 37 10313 10092  0.007 40.509   16  0.135   16  0.129    9  0.219   15 0.5129    1  4.099    1  0.931   25 -0.493
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.006 40.503   15  0.147   15  0.141   16  0.102   16 0.5123   18  3.947   17  0.012   11  0.192
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.019 39.918   17  0.130   17  0.127   19  0.067   17 0.5108   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.506
HEAT          47 38  9342  9198 -0.025 40.206   18  0.099   18  0.097   13  0.149   18 0.5085   29  3.881   22 -0.269    4  0.568
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.018 40.197   19  0.018   19  0.014   18  0.073   19 0.5018   17  3.952   18  0.009   13  0.136
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.037 40.164   20 -0.078   20 -0.083   20 -0.108   20 0.4905   21  3.929   23 -0.286   15  0.071
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.032 40.000   21 -0.179   21 -0.175   21 -0.202   21 0.4810    2  4.055   10  0.275   27 -0.678
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.018 41.569   22 -0.264   22 -0.264   24 -0.342   22 0.4746    4  4.035   16  0.024   28 -0.708
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.034 39.650   23 -0.284   23 -0.288   23 -0.287   23 0.4705   23  3.924   26 -0.490   17 -0.084
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.018 40.993   24 -0.405   24 -0.399   25 -0.511   24 0.4605   28  3.881   29 -0.929   18 -0.093
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.900   25 -0.499   25 -0.498   26 -0.592   25 0.4501   10  3.990   25 -0.458   29 -0.726
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.008 41.572   26 -0.537   26 -0.540   22 -0.286   26 0.4478   11  3.985   20 -0.179   23 -0.393
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.007 41.712   27 -0.595   27 -0.593   29 -0.609   27 0.4448   26  3.897   30 -0.948   22 -0.270
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.063 40.200   28 -0.625   28 -0.621   30 -0.673   28 0.4384   22  3.926   28 -0.866   24 -0.479
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.070 39.887   29 -0.842   29 -0.863   27 -0.595   29 0.4201    3  4.048   19 -0.157   30 -1.034
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.062 40.163   30 -0.869   30 -0.893   28 -0.605   30 0.4181   14  3.975   27 -0.548   26 -0.661
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      52 31  9590  9309  0.034 40.719    5  0.324    5  0.326   12  0.163    5 0.5331   15  3.971   13  0.195   14  0.131
SUNS          49 34  9627  9401  0.032 40.785    9  0.239    9  0.232    7  0.259    9 0.5240   13  3.976    9  0.317   10  0.200
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.057 43.524   11  0.227   11  0.222   15  0.134   11 0.5220    7  4.017    6  0.405   20 -0.138
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.064 42.415   13  0.195   13  0.187    8  0.242   12 0.5196   12  3.981    8  0.329   12  0.155
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.035 40.965   14  0.163   14  0.155   10  0.196   14 0.5160    8  3.999    7  0.374   16  0.019

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.034 40.787    2  0.524    2  0.522    4  0.379    2 0.5504   20  3.937   11  0.240    5  0.518
THUNDER       58 25  9941  9331  0.051 40.383    3  0.521    3  0.509    2  0.489    3 0.5501    9  3.998    3  0.663    9  0.314
TIMBERWOLVES  57 26  9384  8830  0.044 40.234    4  0.482    4  0.467    3  0.442    4 0.5470   27  3.885   14  0.040    1  0.844
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.018 41.569   22 -0.264   22 -0.264   24 -0.342   22 0.4746    4  4.035   16  0.024   28 -0.708
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.007 41.712   27 -0.595   27 -0.593   29 -0.609   27 0.4448   26  3.897   30 -0.948   22 -0.270

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     50 33  9761  9592  0.029 40.845    7  0.259    7  0.259   11  0.184    7 0.5265    6  4.019    4  0.467   19 -0.100
PELICANS      50 35  9739  9376  0.047 41.905    8  0.245    8  0.234    6  0.307    8 0.5245   19  3.943   12  0.200    7  0.414
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.018 40.197   19  0.018   19  0.014   18  0.073   19 0.5018   17  3.952   18  0.009   13  0.136
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.018 40.993   24 -0.405   24 -0.399   25 -0.511   24 0.4605   28  3.881   29 -0.929   18 -0.093
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.008 41.572   26 -0.537   26 -0.540   22 -0.286   26 0.4478   11  3.985   20 -0.179   23 -0.393

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 33  9865  9635  0.001 39.820   10  0.238   10  0.232   14  0.148   10 0.5227    5  4.023    5  0.454   21 -0.157
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.017 39.757   12  0.207   12  0.199   17  0.098   13 0.5192   24  3.909   21 -0.183    8  0.379
PACERS        47 37 10313 10092  0.007 40.509   16  0.135   16  0.129    9  0.219   15 0.5129    1  4.099    1  0.931   25 -0.493
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.037 40.164   20 -0.078   20 -0.083   20 -0.108   20 0.4905   21  3.929   23 -0.286   15  0.071
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.062 40.163   30 -0.869   30 -0.893   28 -0.605   30 0.4181   14  3.975   27 -0.548   26 -0.661

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.019 39.918   17  0.130   17  0.127   19  0.067   17 0.5108   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.506
HEAT          47 38  9342  9198 -0.025 40.206   18  0.099   18  0.097   13  0.149   18 0.5085   29  3.881   22 -0.269    4  0.568
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.032 40.000   21 -0.179   21 -0.175   21 -0.202   21 0.4810    2  4.055   10  0.275   27 -0.678
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.063 40.200   28 -0.625   28 -0.621   30 -0.673   28 0.4384   22  3.926   28 -0.866   24 -0.479
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.070 39.887   29 -0.842   29 -0.863   27 -0.595   29 0.4201    3  4.048   19 -0.157   30 -1.034

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 18 10001  9051  0.028 38.997    1  0.729    1  0.716    1  0.745    1 0.5656   16  3.969    2  0.768    2  0.722
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.019 40.308    6  0.294    6  0.294    5  0.326    6 0.5273   25  3.906   15  0.030    3  0.622
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.006 40.503   15  0.147   15  0.141   16  0.102   16 0.5123   18  3.947   17  0.012   11  0.192
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.034 39.650   23 -0.284   23 -0.288   23 -0.287   23 0.4705   23  3.924   26 -0.490   17 -0.084
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.900   25 -0.499   25 -0.498   26 -0.592   25 0.4501   10  3.990   25 -0.458   29 -0.726

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   243 176 0.580    1  0.195
ATLANTIC DIVISION  222 194 0.534    2  0.121
NORTHWEST DIVISION 226 188 0.546    3  0.112
CENTRAL DIVISION   201 216 0.482    4 -0.056
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 190 224 0.459    5 -0.074
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 166 250 0.399    6 -0.300

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.182 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Apr 23 05:30:19 2024
games through: Mon Apr 22 2024

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