Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        72 21 9265 8355 -0.010 43.525    1  2.669    1  0.673    1  0.596    1 0.5603  3.740  0.182  1.011  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   63 27 9806 9150  0.101 46.344    2  2.450    2  0.551    2  0.593    2 0.5525  3.924  1.063  0.122  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   63 29 9267 8762  0.090 47.570    4  2.400    4  0.524    4  0.500    3 0.5493  3.799  0.363  0.638  0.000
DETROIT       67 26 9007 8352  0.023 45.336    3  2.441    3  0.547    5  0.464    4 0.5492  3.708 -0.096  1.023  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   62 30 8787 8412  0.103 48.358    5  2.386    5  0.524    9  0.343    5 0.5485  3.686 -0.313  1.000  0.000
UTAH          60 32 9688 9117  0.104 47.718    6  2.275    6  0.445    3  0.519    6 0.5420  3.886  0.800  0.238  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31 8459 8090  0.082 45.514    7  2.221    7  0.431    7  0.382    7 0.5396  3.706 -0.188  0.952  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31 9528 9124  0.067 44.562    8  2.161    8  0.397    8  0.354    8 0.5386  3.976  1.087 -0.379  0.000
DALLAS        52 35 8704 8376  0.073 44.885    9  1.977    9  0.292   10  0.290    9 0.5278  3.802  0.168  0.413  0.000
ORLANDO       57 35 9538 9074  0.029 45.670   10  1.971   10  0.289    6  0.401   10 0.5267  3.876  0.633  0.168  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        50 36 9480 9229  0.048 43.938   11  1.871   11  0.229   11  0.223   11 0.5219  3.991  1.036 -0.591  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34 9105 8924  0.020 41.334   12  1.841   12  0.214   12  0.131   12 0.5209  4.023  1.108 -0.847  0.000
CLEVELAND     51 41 8817 8811 -0.003 46.364   13  1.695   13  0.134   14  0.070   13 0.5128  3.757 -0.263  0.404  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7820 7900  0.011 42.073   14  1.486   14  0.013   17 -0.099   14 0.5017  3.729 -0.561  0.363  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43 8657 8704 -0.042 43.310   15  1.457   15 -0.005   16 -0.098   15 0.4997  3.809 -0.191 -0.004  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46 8438 8446  0.005 44.615   17  1.386   16 -0.051   15  0.024   16 0.4945  3.771 -0.246  0.294  0.000
TORONTO       42 45 8712 8497  0.006 43.216   16  1.391   17 -0.056   13  0.129   17 0.4937  3.816  0.069  0.189  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44 8408 8593 -0.007 41.960   18  1.316   18 -0.086   18 -0.138   18 0.4923  3.902  0.221 -0.496  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49 8667 8897 -0.019 45.339   19  1.237   19 -0.128   20 -0.192   19 0.4877  3.817 -0.245 -0.138  0.000
INDIANA       36 46 8527 8642 -0.071 39.829   20  1.104   20 -0.205   19 -0.151   20 0.4798  3.941  0.405 -0.707  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    34 48 7857 8272 -0.080 40.715   21  1.003   21 -0.257   23 -0.366   21 0.4755  3.806 -0.473 -0.258  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49 7981 8234 -0.060 40.671   22  0.976   22 -0.279   21 -0.263   22 0.4732  3.821 -0.300 -0.226  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50 7959 8318 -0.074 40.663   23  0.920   23 -0.308   22 -0.281   23 0.4697  3.820 -0.319 -0.243  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56 7956 8521 -0.091 40.870   24  0.595   24 -0.512   27 -0.565   24 0.4523  3.848 -0.472 -0.659  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59 7692 8288 -0.035 42.666   25  0.511   25 -0.565   28 -0.568   25 0.4488  3.767 -0.856 -0.279  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60 7839 8395 -0.045 42.262   26  0.465   26 -0.595   24 -0.433   26 0.4450  3.812 -0.508 -0.358  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60 8257 8766 -0.044 42.069   28  0.447   28 -0.608   26 -0.492   27 0.4447  3.904 -0.123 -0.861  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59 7948 8490 -0.081 41.069   27  0.454   27 -0.601   25 -0.476   28 0.4436  3.841 -0.413 -0.539  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62 7999 8717 -0.049 42.680   29  0.319   29 -0.675   29 -0.614   29 0.4397  3.859 -0.464 -0.764  0.000
MIAMI         15 67 7491 8203 -0.100 41.233   30  0.000   30 -0.898   30 -0.732   30 0.4201  3.746 -1.118 -0.346  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. LAKERS   63 27 9806 9150  0.101 46.344    2  2.450    2  0.551    2  0.593    2 0.5525  3.924  1.063  0.122  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31 9528 9124  0.067 44.562    8  2.161    8  0.397    8  0.354    8 0.5386  3.976  1.087 -0.379  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34 9105 8924  0.020 41.334   12  1.841   12  0.214   12  0.131   12 0.5209  4.023  1.108 -0.847  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44 8408 8593 -0.007 41.960   18  1.316   18 -0.086   18 -0.138   18 0.4923  3.902  0.221 -0.496  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59 7692 8288 -0.035 42.666   25  0.511   25 -0.565   28 -0.568   25 0.4488  3.767 -0.856 -0.279  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          60 32 9688 9117  0.104 47.718    6  2.275    6  0.445    3  0.519    6 0.5420  3.886  0.800  0.238  0.000
DENVER        50 36 9480 9229  0.048 43.938   11  1.871   11  0.229   11  0.223   11 0.5219  3.991  1.036 -0.591  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7820 7900  0.011 42.073   14  1.486   14  0.013   17 -0.099   14 0.5017  3.729 -0.561  0.363  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60 7839 8395 -0.045 42.262   26  0.465   26 -0.595   24 -0.433   26 0.4450  3.812 -0.508 -0.358  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62 7999 8717 -0.049 42.680   29  0.319   29 -0.675   29 -0.614   29 0.4397  3.859 -0.464 -0.764  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   63 29 9267 8762  0.090 47.570    4  2.400    4  0.524    4  0.500    3 0.5493  3.799  0.363  0.638  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   62 30 8787 8412  0.103 48.358    5  2.386    5  0.524    9  0.343    5 0.5485  3.686 -0.313  1.000  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31 8459 8090  0.082 45.514    7  2.221    7  0.431    7  0.382    7 0.5396  3.706 -0.188  0.952  0.000
DALLAS        52 35 8704 8376  0.073 44.885    9  1.977    9  0.292   10  0.290    9 0.5278  3.802  0.168  0.413  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60 8257 8766 -0.044 42.069   28  0.447   28 -0.608   26 -0.492   27 0.4447  3.904 -0.123 -0.861  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       67 26 9007 8352  0.023 45.336    3  2.441    3  0.547    5  0.464    4 0.5492  3.708 -0.096  1.023  0.000
CLEVELAND     51 41 8817 8811 -0.003 46.364   13  1.695   13  0.134   14  0.070   13 0.5128  3.757 -0.263  0.404  0.000
INDIANA       36 46 8527 8642 -0.071 39.829   20  1.104   20 -0.205   19 -0.151   20 0.4798  3.941  0.405 -0.707  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49 7981 8234 -0.060 40.671   22  0.976   22 -0.279   21 -0.263   22 0.4732  3.821 -0.300 -0.226  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56 7956 8521 -0.091 40.870   24  0.595   24 -0.512   27 -0.565   24 0.4523  3.848 -0.472 -0.659  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       57 35 9538 9074  0.029 45.670   10  1.971   10  0.289    6  0.401   10 0.5267  3.876  0.633  0.168  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43 8657 8704 -0.042 43.310   15  1.457   15 -0.005   16 -0.098   15 0.4997  3.809 -0.191 -0.004  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49 8667 8897 -0.019 45.339   19  1.237   19 -0.128   20 -0.192   19 0.4877  3.817 -0.245 -0.138  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50 7959 8318 -0.074 40.663   23  0.920   23 -0.308   22 -0.281   23 0.4697  3.820 -0.319 -0.243  0.000
MIAMI         15 67 7491 8203 -0.100 41.233   30  0.000   30 -0.898   30 -0.732   30 0.4201  3.746 -1.118 -0.346  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        72 21 9265 8355 -0.010 43.525    1  2.669    1  0.673    1  0.596    1 0.5603  3.740  0.182  1.011  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46 8438 8446  0.005 44.615   17  1.386   16 -0.051   15  0.024   16 0.4945  3.771 -0.246  0.294  0.000
TORONTO       42 45 8712 8497  0.006 43.216   16  1.391   17 -0.056   13  0.129   17 0.4937  3.816  0.069  0.189  0.000
NEW JERSEY    34 48 7857 8272 -0.080 40.715   21  1.003   21 -0.257   23 -0.366   21 0.4755  3.806 -0.473 -0.258  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59 7948 8490 -0.081 41.069   27  0.454   27 -0.601   25 -0.476   28 0.4436  3.841 -0.413 -0.539  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 256 185 0.580    1  0.239
PACIFIC DIVISION   228 195 0.539    2  0.090
ATLANTIC DIVISION  213 219 0.493    3 -0.019
NORTHWEST DIVISION 193 231 0.455    4 -0.100
CENTRAL DIVISION   213 218 0.494    5 -0.108
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 189 244 0.436    6 -0.207

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.302 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed May 14 18:49:13 2008
games through: Tue May 13 2008

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