Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 18 10001  9051  0.028 39.001    1  0.731    1  0.715    1  0.743    1 0.5655   15  3.969    2  0.769    2  0.718
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.034 40.787    2  0.527    2  0.521    4  0.378    2 0.5503   20  3.937   11  0.242    5  0.515
THUNDER       58 25  9941  9331  0.051 40.387    3  0.525    3  0.509    2  0.487    3 0.5501    9  3.999    3  0.665    9  0.310
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.044 40.724    4  0.495    4  0.477    3  0.453    4 0.5479   27  3.883   14  0.043    1  0.863
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.033 41.206    5  0.306    5  0.307   12  0.154    5 0.5314   16  3.966   13  0.165   13  0.143
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.018 40.295    6  0.295    6  0.293    5  0.325    7 0.5272   25  3.906   15  0.031    3  0.619
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.033 41.495    7  0.275    7  0.275   11  0.194    6 0.5281    7  4.015    4  0.456   17 -0.068
PELICANS      50 35  9739  9376  0.047 41.905    8  0.246    8  0.234    6  0.306    8 0.5244   19  3.944   12  0.201    7  0.410
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.039 41.542    9  0.232    9  0.222    8  0.246    9 0.5229   14  3.974    9  0.296   10  0.197
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.056 43.525   10  0.225   10  0.221   14  0.133   10 0.5220    6  4.017    6  0.408   20 -0.142
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.000 40.348   11  0.220   11  0.215   15  0.117   11 0.5210    5  4.022    5  0.416   21 -0.182
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.018 39.756   12  0.205   12  0.199   17  0.097   13 0.5192   24  3.909   21 -0.182    8  0.376
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.063 42.409   13  0.194   13  0.186    9  0.241   12 0.5196   12  3.982    8  0.331   12  0.151
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.962   14  0.161   14  0.154   10  0.196   14 0.5159    8  3.999    7  0.377   16  0.015
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.011 41.092   15  0.151   15  0.144    7  0.248   15 0.5145    1  4.097    1  0.954   24 -0.457
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.007 40.501   16  0.146   16  0.140   16  0.101   16 0.5122   18  3.947   17  0.013   11  0.189
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.019 39.910   17  0.127   17  0.126   19  0.066   17 0.5107   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.503
HEAT          47 38  9342  9198 -0.026 40.205   18  0.096   18  0.096   13  0.149   18 0.5084   29  3.881   22 -0.268    4  0.565
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.017 40.196   19  0.015   19  0.013   18  0.072   19 0.5017   17  3.952   18  0.012   14  0.133
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.037 40.162   20 -0.080   20 -0.084   20 -0.108   20 0.4905   21  3.930   23 -0.284   15  0.068
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 40.004   21 -0.180   21 -0.176   21 -0.202   21 0.4810    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.680
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.017 41.568   22 -0.265   22 -0.265   24 -0.342   22 0.4745    4  4.035   16  0.027   28 -0.711
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.034 39.648   23 -0.285   23 -0.289   23 -0.287   23 0.4704   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.086
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.019 40.994   24 -0.405   24 -0.399   25 -0.511   24 0.4604   28  3.882   29 -0.926   19 -0.096
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.905   25 -0.498   25 -0.498   26 -0.592   25 0.4500   10  3.990   25 -0.456   29 -0.727
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.008 41.574   26 -0.536   26 -0.541   22 -0.286   26 0.4478   11  3.986   20 -0.176   23 -0.396
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.007 41.710   27 -0.594   27 -0.593   29 -0.609   27 0.4447   26  3.898   30 -0.945   22 -0.273
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.063 40.199   28 -0.624   28 -0.621   30 -0.673   28 0.4384   22  3.927   28 -0.864   25 -0.482
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.071 39.885   29 -0.839   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4200    3  4.048   19 -0.155   30 -1.036
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.063 40.161   30 -0.866   30 -0.893   28 -0.604   30 0.4180   13  3.976   27 -0.546   26 -0.662
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      52 32  9683  9405  0.033 41.206    5  0.306    5  0.307   12  0.154    5 0.5314   16  3.966   13  0.165   13  0.143
SUNS          49 35  9720  9506  0.039 41.542    9  0.232    9  0.222    8  0.246    9 0.5229   14  3.974    9  0.296   10  0.197
LAKERS        49 37 10114 10060  0.056 43.525   10  0.225   10  0.221   14  0.133   10 0.5220    6  4.017    6  0.408   20 -0.142
KINGS         47 37  9774  9614  0.063 42.409   13  0.194   13  0.186    9  0.241   12 0.5196   12  3.982    8  0.331   12  0.151
WARRIORS      46 37  9751  9561  0.034 40.962   14  0.161   14  0.154   10  0.196   14 0.5159    8  3.999    7  0.377   16  0.015

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
NUGGETS       59 25  9633  9189  0.034 40.787    2  0.527    2  0.521    4  0.378    2 0.5503   20  3.937   11  0.242    5  0.515
THUNDER       58 25  9941  9331  0.051 40.387    3  0.525    3  0.509    2  0.487    3 0.5501    9  3.999    3  0.665    9  0.310
TIMBERWOLVES  58 26  9489  8923  0.044 40.724    4  0.495    4  0.477    3  0.453    4 0.5479   27  3.883   14  0.043    1  0.863
JAZZ          31 51  9484  9885  0.017 41.568   22 -0.265   22 -0.265   24 -0.342   22 0.4745    4  4.035   16  0.027   28 -0.711
TRAIL BLAZERS 21 61  8722  9462 -0.007 41.710   27 -0.594   27 -0.593   29 -0.609   27 0.4447   26  3.898   30 -0.945   22 -0.273

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAVERICKS     51 33  9857  9685  0.033 41.495    7  0.275    7  0.275   11  0.194    6 0.5281    7  4.015    4  0.456   17 -0.068
PELICANS      50 35  9739  9376  0.047 41.905    8  0.246    8  0.234    6  0.306    8 0.5244   19  3.944   12  0.201    7  0.410
ROCKETS       41 41  9375  9283  0.017 40.196   19  0.015   19  0.013   18  0.072   19 0.5017   17  3.952   18  0.012   14  0.133
GRIZZLIES     27 55  8677  9251 -0.019 40.994   24 -0.405   24 -0.399   25 -0.511   24 0.4604   28  3.882   29 -0.926   19 -0.096
SPURS         22 60  9192  9724  0.008 41.574   26 -0.536   26 -0.541   22 -0.286   26 0.4478   11  3.986   20 -0.176   23 -0.396

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BUCKS         50 34  9973  9760 -0.000 40.348   11  0.220   11  0.215   15  0.117   11 0.5210    5  4.022    5  0.416   21 -0.182
CAVALIERS     50 34  9429  9207 -0.018 39.756   12  0.205   12  0.199   17  0.097   13 0.5192   24  3.909   21 -0.182    8  0.376
PACERS        48 37 10438 10200  0.011 41.092   15  0.151   15  0.144    7  0.248   15 0.5145    1  4.097    1  0.954   24 -0.457
BULLS         40 44  9428  9552 -0.037 40.162   20 -0.080   20 -0.084   20 -0.108   20 0.4905   21  3.930   23 -0.284   15  0.068
PISTONS       14 68  9010  9757 -0.063 40.161   30 -0.866   30 -0.893   28 -0.604   30 0.4180   13  3.976   27 -0.546   26 -0.662

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         47 37  9227  9085 -0.019 39.910   17  0.127   17  0.126   19  0.066   17 0.5107   30  3.877   24 -0.371    6  0.503
HEAT          47 38  9342  9198 -0.026 40.205   18  0.096   18  0.096   13  0.149   18 0.5084   29  3.881   22 -0.268    4  0.565
HAWKS         36 47  9819 10013 -0.033 40.004   21 -0.180   21 -0.176   21 -0.202   21 0.4810    2  4.055   10  0.277   27 -0.680
HORNETS       21 61  8740  9580 -0.063 40.199   28 -0.624   28 -0.621   30 -0.673   28 0.4384   22  3.927   28 -0.864   25 -0.482
WIZARDS       15 67  9327 10089 -0.071 39.885   29 -0.839   29 -0.864   27 -0.595   29 0.4200    3  4.048   19 -0.155   30 -1.036

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 18 10001  9051  0.028 39.001    1  0.731    1  0.715    1  0.743    1 0.5655   15  3.969    2  0.769    2  0.718
KNICKS        52 32  9464  9078  0.018 40.295    6  0.295    6  0.293    5  0.325    7 0.5272   25  3.906   15  0.031    3  0.619
76ERS         48 37  9707  9466 -0.007 40.501   16  0.146   16  0.140   16  0.101   16 0.5122   18  3.947   17  0.013   11  0.189
NETS          32 50  9050  9287 -0.034 39.648   23 -0.285   23 -0.289   23 -0.287   23 0.4704   23  3.925   26 -0.488   18 -0.086
RAPTORS       25 57  9213  9741 -0.052 39.905   25 -0.498   25 -0.498   26 -0.592   25 0.4500   10  3.990   25 -0.456   29 -0.727

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
PACIFIC DIVISION   243 178 0.577    1  0.192
ATLANTIC DIVISION  222 194 0.534    2  0.121
NORTHWEST DIVISION 227 188 0.547    3  0.113
CENTRAL DIVISION   202 217 0.482    4 -0.056
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 191 224 0.460    5 -0.073
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 166 250 0.399    6 -0.300

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.181 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Apr 24 05:30:19 2024
games through: Tue Apr 23 2024

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