Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        82 26 10689  9712  0.058 53.542    1  2.743    1  0.700    1  0.636    1 0.5627  3.738  0.217  1.055  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   71 32 11055 10414  0.152 55.484    2  2.505    2  0.580    2  0.527    2 0.5548  3.918  0.971  0.083  0.000
DETROIT       69 30  9546  8901  0.062 49.945    3  2.410    3  0.523    4  0.453    4 0.5467  3.710 -0.090  0.997  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   65 34  9419  9041  0.126 53.283    4  2.371    4  0.502    7  0.353    3 0.5467  3.679 -0.329  1.035  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   63 31  9429  8952  0.085 48.876    5  2.349    5  0.482    5  0.418    5 0.5456  3.799  0.284  0.552  0.000
UTAH          60 34  9897  9336  0.103 49.084    6  2.233    7  0.410    3  0.472    6 0.5389  3.887  0.764  0.181  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31  8459  8090  0.070 45.441    7  2.220    6  0.419    8  0.352    7 0.5384  3.706 -0.211  0.916  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31  9528  9124  0.057 44.527    8  2.161    8  0.386    9  0.328    8 0.5375  3.976  1.070 -0.415  0.000
ORLANDO       57 35  9538  9074  0.020 45.678    9  1.972    9  0.279    6  0.374   10 0.5257  3.876  0.612  0.136  0.000
DALLAS        52 35  8704  8376  0.060 44.782   10  1.971   10  0.279   10  0.262    9 0.5266  3.803  0.147  0.378  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        50 36  9480  9229  0.036 43.872   11  1.869   11  0.217   11  0.200   11 0.5210  3.992  1.022 -0.623  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34  9105  8924  0.009 41.284   12  1.839   12  0.203   13  0.112   12 0.5200  4.023  1.096 -0.873  0.000
CLEVELAND     52 43  9072  9073  0.014 48.747   13  1.705   13  0.130   14  0.093   13 0.5126  3.754 -0.250  0.437  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41  7820  7900 -0.001 42.008   14  1.485   14  0.001   17 -0.106   14 0.5007  3.730 -0.561  0.349  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43  8657  8704 -0.050 43.362   15  1.462   15 -0.013   16 -0.101   15 0.4988  3.809 -0.188 -0.015  0.000
TORONTO       42 45  8712  8497 -0.003 43.223   16  1.393   17 -0.065   12  0.112   17 0.4928  3.816  0.059  0.166  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46  8438  8446 -0.004 44.618   17  1.388   16 -0.060   15  0.013   16 0.4935  3.771 -0.251  0.278  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44  8408  8593 -0.019 41.909   18  1.313   18 -0.097   18 -0.144   18 0.4913  3.902  0.222 -0.509  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49  8667  8897 -0.028 45.350   19  1.237   19 -0.137   20 -0.193   19 0.4871  3.817 -0.240 -0.146  0.000
INDIANA       36 46  8527  8642 -0.081 39.833   20  1.105   20 -0.215   19 -0.154   20 0.4789  3.941  0.408 -0.716  0.000
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    34 48  7857  8272 -0.089 40.719   21  1.006   21 -0.267   23 -0.358   21 0.4746  3.806 -0.459 -0.256  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49  7981  8234 -0.069 40.676   22  0.979   22 -0.288   21 -0.260   22 0.4723  3.821 -0.290 -0.230  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50  7959  8318 -0.084 40.668   23  0.921   23 -0.318   22 -0.277   23 0.4688  3.821 -0.309 -0.246  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56  7956  8521 -0.101 40.875   24  0.599   24 -0.522   27 -0.548   24 0.4514  3.848 -0.448 -0.648  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59  7692  8288 -0.047 42.600   25  0.510   25 -0.576   28 -0.553   25 0.4478  3.767 -0.835 -0.271  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60  7839  8395 -0.056 42.207   26  0.463   26 -0.606   24 -0.424   26 0.4439  3.813 -0.492 -0.356  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59  7948  8490 -0.091 41.066   27  0.456   27 -0.611   25 -0.463   28 0.4427  3.842 -0.394 -0.533  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60  8257  8766 -0.056 42.017   28  0.446   28 -0.619   26 -0.480   27 0.4437  3.904 -0.104 -0.855  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62  7999  8717 -0.060 42.625   29  0.319   29 -0.685   29 -0.595   29 0.4387  3.860 -0.438 -0.752  0.000
MIAMI         15 67  7491  8203 -0.110 41.231   30  0.000   30 -0.908   30 -0.707   30 0.4192  3.746 -1.086 -0.327  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. LAKERS   71 32 11055 10414  0.152 55.484    2  2.505    2  0.580    2  0.527    2 0.5548  3.918  0.971  0.083  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31  9528  9124  0.057 44.527    8  2.161    8  0.386    9  0.328    8 0.5375  3.976  1.070 -0.415  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34  9105  8924  0.009 41.284   12  1.839   12  0.203   13  0.112   12 0.5200  4.023  1.096 -0.873  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44  8408  8593 -0.019 41.909   18  1.313   18 -0.097   18 -0.144   18 0.4913  3.902  0.222 -0.509  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59  7692  8288 -0.047 42.600   25  0.510   25 -0.576   28 -0.553   25 0.4478  3.767 -0.835 -0.271  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          60 34  9897  9336  0.103 49.084    6  2.233    7  0.410    3  0.472    6 0.5389  3.887  0.764  0.181  0.000
DENVER        50 36  9480  9229  0.036 43.872   11  1.869   11  0.217   11  0.200   11 0.5210  3.992  1.022 -0.623  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41  7820  7900 -0.001 42.008   14  1.485   14  0.001   17 -0.106   14 0.5007  3.730 -0.561  0.349  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60  7839  8395 -0.056 42.207   26  0.463   26 -0.606   24 -0.424   26 0.4439  3.813 -0.492 -0.356  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62  7999  8717 -0.060 42.625   29  0.319   29 -0.685   29 -0.595   29 0.4387  3.860 -0.438 -0.752  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   65 34  9419  9041  0.126 53.283    4  2.371    4  0.502    7  0.353    3 0.5467  3.679 -0.329  1.035  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   63 31  9429  8952  0.085 48.876    5  2.349    5  0.482    5  0.418    5 0.5456  3.799  0.284  0.552  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31  8459  8090  0.070 45.441    7  2.220    6  0.419    8  0.352    7 0.5384  3.706 -0.211  0.916  0.000
DALLAS        52 35  8704  8376  0.060 44.782   10  1.971   10  0.279   10  0.262    9 0.5266  3.803  0.147  0.378  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60  8257  8766 -0.056 42.017   28  0.446   28 -0.619   26 -0.480   27 0.4437  3.904 -0.104 -0.855  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       69 30  9546  8901  0.062 49.945    3  2.410    3  0.523    4  0.453    4 0.5467  3.710 -0.090  0.997  0.000
CLEVELAND     52 43  9072  9073  0.014 48.747   13  1.705   13  0.130   14  0.093   13 0.5126  3.754 -0.250  0.437  0.000
INDIANA       36 46  8527  8642 -0.081 39.833   20  1.105   20 -0.215   19 -0.154   20 0.4789  3.941  0.408 -0.716  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49  7981  8234 -0.069 40.676   22  0.979   22 -0.288   21 -0.260   22 0.4723  3.821 -0.290 -0.230  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56  7956  8521 -0.101 40.875   24  0.599   24 -0.522   27 -0.548   24 0.4514  3.848 -0.448 -0.648  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       57 35  9538  9074  0.020 45.678    9  1.972    9  0.279    6  0.374   10 0.5257  3.876  0.612  0.136  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43  8657  8704 -0.050 43.362   15  1.462   15 -0.013   16 -0.101   15 0.4988  3.809 -0.188 -0.015  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49  8667  8897 -0.028 45.350   19  1.237   19 -0.137   20 -0.193   19 0.4871  3.817 -0.240 -0.146  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50  7959  8318 -0.084 40.668   23  0.921   23 -0.318   22 -0.277   23 0.4688  3.821 -0.309 -0.246  0.000
MIAMI         15 67  7491  8203 -0.110 41.231   30  0.000   30 -0.908   30 -0.707   30 0.4192  3.746 -1.086 -0.327  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        82 26 10689  9712  0.058 53.542    1  2.743    1  0.700    1  0.636    1 0.5627  3.738  0.217  1.055  0.000
TORONTO       42 45  8712  8497 -0.003 43.223   16  1.393   17 -0.065   12  0.112   17 0.4928  3.816  0.059  0.166  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46  8438  8446 -0.004 44.618   17  1.388   16 -0.060   15  0.013   16 0.4935  3.771 -0.251  0.278  0.000
NEW JERSEY    34 48  7857  8272 -0.089 40.719   21  1.006   21 -0.267   23 -0.358   21 0.4746  3.806 -0.459 -0.256  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59  7948  8490 -0.091 41.066   27  0.456   27 -0.611   25 -0.463   28 0.4427  3.842 -0.394 -0.533  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 259 191 0.576    1  0.225
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 200 0.541    2  0.076
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 224 0.499    3 -0.027
CENTRAL DIVISION   216 224 0.491    4 -0.113
NORTHWEST DIVISION 193 233 0.453    5 -0.113
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 189 244 0.436    6 -0.216

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.306 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.027 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jun 18 19:06:16 2008
games through: Tue Jun 17 2008

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