Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.352    1  0.919    1  0.909    1  0.924    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.924    1  0.923
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.010 40.944    2  0.751    2  0.736    2  0.706    2 0.5667    5  4.027    1  1.052    8  0.360
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.007 41.079    3  0.605    3  0.589    3  0.590    3 0.5554   24  3.921    7  0.391    3  0.789
ROCKETS       54 33  9896  9520  0.073 44.735    4  0.355    4  0.342    7  0.295    4 0.5329   23  3.926   14  0.123    6  0.467
KNICKS        55 33 10142  9798 -0.005 42.885    5  0.303    5  0.291   10  0.205    6 0.5278   18  3.949   13  0.147   10  0.263
TIMBERWOLVES  53 34  9909  9464  0.047 43.761    6  0.300    7  0.285    5  0.435    5 0.5288   25  3.915   10  0.206    5  0.664
CLIPPERS      53 35  9913  9508  0.059 44.761    7  0.299    6  0.286    4  0.455    7 0.5276   27  3.892   16  0.109    2  0.801
NUGGETS       53 35 10536 10240  0.051 44.837    8  0.283    8  0.279    9  0.219    8 0.5268    4  4.035    4  0.607   18 -0.168
WARRIORS      52 36  9969  9700  0.058 45.186    9  0.269    9  0.265    6  0.296   10 0.5252   22  3.934   12  0.163    7  0.428
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.023 42.186   10  0.268   10  0.265    8  0.244    9 0.5264    7  4.001    5  0.455   15  0.033
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.038 44.557   11  0.246   11  0.242   14  0.124   11 0.5226   20  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.207
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.066 45.051   12  0.198   12  0.181   11  0.196   12 0.5172    1  4.058    3  0.711   20 -0.318
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.001 43.518   13  0.170   13  0.158   13  0.137   13 0.5166   15  3.968   11  0.175   13  0.099
PISTONS       46 42 10111  9963  0.013 44.014   14  0.056   14  0.053   12  0.195   14 0.5062   14  3.970    9  0.244   12  0.147
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.089   15 -0.015   15 -0.021   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.324
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.000 41.471   16 -0.028   16 -0.040   15 -0.010   17 0.4952    9  3.984   15  0.113   16 -0.133
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.021 43.576   17 -0.031   17 -0.042   16 -0.038   16 0.4960   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.673
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.040 41.218   18 -0.074   18 -0.082   20 -0.101   18 0.4917    2  4.054    8  0.387   27 -0.590
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.045 40.666   19 -0.104   19 -0.111   17 -0.063   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.405   26 -0.531
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.003 41.815   20 -0.131   20 -0.136   23 -0.218   20 0.4862   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.324
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.010 43.882   21 -0.144   21 -0.151   19 -0.073   21 0.4861   28  3.885   24 -0.451    9  0.305
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.009 41.464   22 -0.148   22 -0.151   18 -0.064   22 0.4855   21  3.936   21 -0.186   14  0.057
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.005 41.520   23 -0.196   23 -0.201   22 -0.213   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.028   23 -0.398
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.053 40.574   24 -0.359   24 -0.369   24 -0.305   24 0.4653   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.054 41.186   25 -0.472   25 -0.473   26 -0.567   25 0.4546   29  3.875   29 -0.997   17 -0.138
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.063 40.673   26 -0.539   26 -0.552   25 -0.529   26 0.4475   19  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.469
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.014 42.712   27 -0.601   27 -0.611   27 -0.633   27 0.4434   13  3.976   25 -0.553   28 -0.712
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.082 40.790   28 -0.713   28 -0.727   29 -0.762   28 0.4325   26  3.895   30 -1.093   24 -0.432
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.014 42.651   29 -0.726   29 -0.742   28 -0.658   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.410   29 -0.906
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.076 41.447   30 -0.742   30 -0.753   30 -0.859   30 0.4309   12  3.977   28 -0.772   30 -0.946
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      53 35  9913  9508  0.059 44.761    7  0.299    6  0.286    4  0.455    7 0.5276   27  3.892   16  0.109    2  0.801
WARRIORS      52 36  9969  9700  0.058 45.186    9  0.269    9  0.265    6  0.296   10 0.5252   22  3.934   12  0.163    7  0.428
LAKERS        51 36  9800  9735  0.038 44.557   11  0.246   11  0.242   14  0.124   11 0.5226   20  3.944   17  0.040   11  0.207
KINGS         40 43  9596  9571  0.000 41.471   16 -0.028   16 -0.040   15 -0.010   17 0.4952    9  3.984   15  0.113   16 -0.133
SUNS          36 46  9317  9563  0.003 41.815   20 -0.131   20 -0.136   23 -0.218   20 0.4862   11  3.981   20 -0.112   21 -0.324

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       72 15 10442  9325  0.078 43.352    1  0.919    1  0.909    1  0.924    1 0.5802   16  3.960    2  0.924    1  0.923
TIMBERWOLVES  53 34  9909  9464  0.047 43.761    6  0.300    7  0.285    5  0.435    5 0.5288   25  3.915   10  0.206    5  0.664
NUGGETS       53 35 10536 10240  0.051 44.837    8  0.283    8  0.279    9  0.219    8 0.5268    4  4.035    4  0.607   18 -0.168
TRAIL BLAZERS 36 46  9093  9336 -0.009 41.464   22 -0.148   22 -0.151   18 -0.064   22 0.4855   21  3.936   21 -0.186   14  0.057
JAZZ          17 65  9175  9941 -0.014 42.651   29 -0.726   29 -0.742   28 -0.658   29 0.4315    6  4.008   23 -0.410   29 -0.906

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       54 33  9896  9520  0.073 44.735    4  0.355    4  0.342    7  0.295    4 0.5329   23  3.926   14  0.123    6  0.467
GRIZZLIES     49 39 10618 10289  0.066 45.051   12  0.198   12  0.181   11  0.196   12 0.5172    1  4.058    3  0.711   20 -0.318
MAVERICKS     40 44  9590  9688  0.026 43.089   15 -0.015   15 -0.021   21 -0.202   15 0.4965   10  3.984   19 -0.081   22 -0.324
SPURS         34 48  9342  9568 -0.005 41.520   23 -0.196   23 -0.201   22 -0.213   23 0.4795    8  3.996   18 -0.028   23 -0.398
PELICANS      21 61  9006  9779 -0.014 42.712   27 -0.601   27 -0.611   27 -0.633   27 0.4434   13  3.976   25 -0.553   28 -0.712

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     68 18 10503  9599  0.010 40.944    2  0.751    2  0.736    2  0.706    2 0.5667    5  4.027    1  1.052    8  0.360
PACERS        54 33 10213  9992 -0.023 42.186   10  0.268   10  0.265    8  0.244    9 0.5264    7  4.001    5  0.455   15  0.033
BUCKS         50 38 10120  9939  0.001 43.518   13  0.170   13  0.158   13  0.137   13 0.5166   15  3.968   11  0.175   13  0.099
PISTONS       46 42 10111  9963  0.013 44.014   14  0.056   14  0.053   12  0.195   14 0.5062   14  3.970    9  0.244   12  0.147
BULLS         39 44  9750  9897 -0.045 40.666   19 -0.104   19 -0.111   17 -0.063   19 0.4899    3  4.050    6  0.405   26 -0.531

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         43 45  9233  9282 -0.021 43.576   17 -0.031   17 -0.042   16 -0.038   16 0.4960   30  3.816   27 -0.749    4  0.673
HAWKS         40 44  9900 10027 -0.040 41.218   18 -0.074   18 -0.082   20 -0.101   18 0.4917    2  4.054    8  0.387   27 -0.590
HEAT          39 49  9683  9731 -0.010 43.882   21 -0.144   21 -0.151   19 -0.073   21 0.4861   28  3.885   24 -0.451    9  0.305
HORNETS       19 63  8618  9365 -0.082 40.790   28 -0.713   28 -0.727   29 -0.762   28 0.4325   26  3.895   30 -1.093   24 -0.432
WIZARDS       18 64  8856  9876 -0.076 41.447   30 -0.742   30 -0.753   30 -0.859   30 0.4309   12  3.977   28 -0.772   30 -0.946

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L    PF    PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       65 22 10066  9255 -0.007 41.079    3  0.605    3  0.589    3  0.590    3 0.5554   24  3.921    7  0.391    3  0.789
KNICKS        55 33 10142  9798 -0.005 42.885    5  0.303    5  0.291   10  0.205    6 0.5278   18  3.949   13  0.147   10  0.263
RAPTORS       30 52  9091  9443 -0.053 40.574   24 -0.359   24 -0.369   24 -0.305   24 0.4653   17  3.952   22 -0.346   19 -0.264
NETS          26 56  8619  9202 -0.054 41.186   25 -0.472   25 -0.473   26 -0.567   25 0.4546   29  3.875   29 -0.997   17 -0.138
76ERS         24 58  8988  9499 -0.063 40.673   26 -0.539   26 -0.552   25 -0.529   26 0.4475   19  3.949   26 -0.588   25 -0.469

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   257 175 0.595    1  0.200
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 195 0.542    2  0.162
PACIFIC DIVISION   232 196 0.542    3  0.112
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 198 225 0.468    4 -0.045
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 221 0.475    5 -0.105
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 265 0.375    6 -0.387

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.144 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri May  2 05:30:17 2025
games through: Thu May  1 2025

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