Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        71 19 9015 8086 -0.009 41.905    1  2.721    1  0.713    1  0.668    1 0.5632  3.743  0.266  1.071  0.000
L.A. LAKERS   63 25 9592 8923  0.085 44.787    2  2.485    2  0.577    2  0.612    2 0.5552  3.925  1.084  0.139  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   62 27 8987 8473  0.079 45.558    3  2.419    3  0.543    3  0.523    3 0.5507  3.797  0.370  0.675  0.000
DETROIT       65 26 8826 8177  0.016 44.083    4  2.390    4  0.523    5  0.462    5 0.5475  3.711 -0.087  1.011  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   60 29 8498 8132  0.095 46.493    5  2.371    5  0.517    9  0.332    4 0.5478  3.683 -0.339  1.004  0.000
UTAH          58 32 9461 8903  0.102 46.534    6  2.235    7  0.423    4  0.514    6 0.5401  3.887  0.797  0.230  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31 8459 8090  0.085 45.570    7  2.224    6  0.434    7  0.388    7 0.5398  3.706 -0.184  0.961  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31 9528 9124  0.070 44.614    8  2.164    8  0.400    8  0.360    8 0.5389  3.976  1.092 -0.371  0.000
ORLANDO       57 33 9363 8893  0.019 44.302    9  2.006    9  0.314    6  0.411    9 0.5291  3.879  0.654  0.169  0.000
DALLAS        52 35 8704 8376  0.076 44.961   10  1.975   10  0.295   10  0.298   10 0.5282  3.803  0.173  0.422  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        50 36 9480 9229  0.051 44.005   11  1.871   11  0.232   11  0.228   11 0.5223  3.991  1.039 -0.583  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34 9105 8924  0.024 41.395   12  1.841   12  0.218   12  0.136   12 0.5213  4.022  1.111 -0.839  0.000
CLEVELAND     49 40 8548 8561 -0.023 44.271   13  1.642   13  0.109   15  0.003   13 0.5105  3.761 -0.318  0.324  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7820 7900  0.014 42.137   14  1.485   14  0.017   16 -0.096   14 0.5021  3.729 -0.560  0.369  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43 8657 8704 -0.041 43.285   15  1.453   15 -0.004   17 -0.099   15 0.4998  3.808 -0.197 -0.001  0.000
TORONTO       42 45 8712 8497  0.009 43.271   16  1.391   17 -0.053   13  0.133   17 0.4941  3.815  0.069  0.197  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46 8438 8446  0.009 44.682   17  1.386   16 -0.047   14  0.027   16 0.4947  3.771 -0.247  0.302  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44 8408 8593 -0.004 42.018   18  1.315   18 -0.082   18 -0.135   18 0.4926  3.902  0.221 -0.491  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49 8667 8897 -0.013 45.466   19  1.241   19 -0.122   20 -0.184   19 0.4883  3.817 -0.242 -0.126  0.000
INDIANA       36 46 8527 8642 -0.068 39.870   20  1.102   20 -0.203   19 -0.149   20 0.4801  3.941  0.404 -0.701  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY    34 48 7857 8272 -0.076 40.770   21  1.002   21 -0.254   23 -0.366   21 0.4758  3.805 -0.477 -0.254  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49 7981 8234 -0.057 40.726   22  0.975   22 -0.276   21 -0.262   22 0.4735  3.820 -0.302 -0.221  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50 7959 8318 -0.071 40.717   23  0.919   23 -0.305   22 -0.280   23 0.4700  3.820 -0.322 -0.239  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56 7956 8521 -0.088 40.922   24  0.594   24 -0.510   27 -0.566   24 0.4526  3.847 -0.476 -0.656  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59 7692 8288 -0.031 42.732   25  0.511   25 -0.561   28 -0.568   25 0.4492  3.767 -0.860 -0.277  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60 7839 8395 -0.041 42.322   26  0.464   26 -0.592   24 -0.433   26 0.4453  3.812 -0.511 -0.356  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59 7948 8490 -0.077 41.137   27  0.454   27 -0.598   25 -0.476   28 0.4439  3.841 -0.416 -0.535  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60 8257 8766 -0.040 42.130   28  0.446   28 -0.605   26 -0.493   27 0.4451  3.904 -0.126 -0.859  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62 7999 8717 -0.045 42.741   29  0.319   29 -0.672   29 -0.615   29 0.4400  3.859 -0.468 -0.763  0.000
MIAMI         15 67 7491 8203 -0.096 41.300   30  0.000   30 -0.895   30 -0.734   30 0.4204  3.746 -1.124 -0.345  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
L.A. LAKERS   63 25 9592 8923  0.085 44.787    2  2.485    2  0.577    2  0.612    2 0.5552  3.925  1.084  0.139  0.000
PHOENIX       56 31 9528 9124  0.070 44.614    8  2.164    8  0.400    8  0.360    8 0.5389  3.976  1.092 -0.371  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  48 34 9105 8924  0.024 41.395   12  1.841   12  0.218   12  0.136   12 0.5213  4.022  1.111 -0.839  0.000
SACRAMENTO    38 44 8408 8593 -0.004 42.018   18  1.315   18 -0.082   18 -0.135   18 0.4926  3.902  0.221 -0.491  0.000
L.A. CLIPPERS 23 59 7692 8288 -0.031 42.732   25  0.511   25 -0.561   28 -0.568   25 0.4492  3.767 -0.860 -0.277  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
UTAH          58 32 9461 8903  0.102 46.534    6  2.235    7  0.423    4  0.514    6 0.5401  3.887  0.797  0.230  0.000
DENVER        50 36 9480 9229  0.051 44.005   11  1.871   11  0.232   11  0.228   11 0.5223  3.991  1.039 -0.583  0.000
PORTLAND      41 41 7820 7900  0.014 42.137   14  1.485   14  0.017   16 -0.096   14 0.5021  3.729 -0.560  0.369  0.000
MINNESOTA     22 60 7839 8395 -0.041 42.322   26  0.464   26 -0.592   24 -0.433   26 0.4453  3.812 -0.511 -0.356  0.000
SEATTLE       20 62 7999 8717 -0.045 42.741   29  0.319   29 -0.672   29 -0.615   29 0.4400  3.859 -0.468 -0.763  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   62 27 8987 8473  0.079 45.558    3  2.419    3  0.543    3  0.523    3 0.5507  3.797  0.370  0.675  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   60 29 8498 8132  0.095 46.493    5  2.371    5  0.517    9  0.332    4 0.5478  3.683 -0.339  1.004  0.000
HOUSTON       57 31 8459 8090  0.085 45.570    7  2.224    6  0.434    7  0.388    7 0.5398  3.706 -0.184  0.961  0.000
DALLAS        52 35 8704 8376  0.076 44.961   10  1.975   10  0.295   10  0.298   10 0.5282  3.803  0.173  0.422  0.000
MEMPHIS       22 60 8257 8766 -0.040 42.130   28  0.446   28 -0.605   26 -0.493   27 0.4451  3.904 -0.126 -0.859  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT       65 26 8826 8177  0.016 44.083    4  2.390    4  0.523    5  0.462    5 0.5475  3.711 -0.087  1.011  0.000
CLEVELAND     49 40 8548 8561 -0.023 44.271   13  1.642   13  0.109   15  0.003   13 0.5105  3.761 -0.318  0.324  0.000
INDIANA       36 46 8527 8642 -0.068 39.870   20  1.102   20 -0.203   19 -0.149   20 0.4801  3.941  0.404 -0.701  0.000
CHICAGO       33 49 7981 8234 -0.057 40.726   22  0.975   22 -0.276   21 -0.262   22 0.4735  3.820 -0.302 -0.221  0.000
MILWAUKEE     26 56 7956 8521 -0.088 40.922   24  0.594   24 -0.510   27 -0.566   24 0.4526  3.847 -0.476 -0.656  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       57 33 9363 8893  0.019 44.302    9  2.006    9  0.314    6  0.411    9 0.5291  3.879  0.654  0.169  0.000
WASHINGTON    45 43 8657 8704 -0.041 43.285   15  1.453   15 -0.004   17 -0.099   15 0.4998  3.808 -0.197 -0.001  0.000
ATLANTA       40 49 8667 8897 -0.013 45.466   19  1.241   19 -0.122   20 -0.184   19 0.4883  3.817 -0.242 -0.126  0.000
CHARLOTTE     32 50 7959 8318 -0.071 40.717   23  0.919   23 -0.305   22 -0.280   23 0.4700  3.820 -0.322 -0.239  0.000
MIAMI         15 67 7491 8203 -0.096 41.300   30  0.000   30 -0.895   30 -0.734   30 0.4204  3.746 -1.124 -0.345  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        71 19 9015 8086 -0.009 41.905    1  2.721    1  0.713    1  0.668    1 0.5632  3.743  0.266  1.071  0.000
TORONTO       42 45 8712 8497  0.009 43.271   16  1.391   17 -0.053   13  0.133   17 0.4941  3.815  0.069  0.197  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  42 46 8438 8446  0.009 44.682   17  1.386   16 -0.047   14  0.027   16 0.4947  3.771 -0.247  0.302  0.000
NEW JERSEY    34 48 7857 8272 -0.076 40.770   21  1.002   21 -0.254   23 -0.366   21 0.4758  3.805 -0.477 -0.254  0.000
NEW YORK      23 59 7948 8490 -0.077 41.137   27  0.454   27 -0.598   25 -0.476   28 0.4439  3.841 -0.416 -0.535  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 253 182 0.582    1  0.243
PACIFIC DIVISION   228 193 0.542    2  0.095
ATLANTIC DIVISION  212 217 0.494    3 -0.009
NORTHWEST DIVISION 191 231 0.453    4 -0.098
CENTRAL DIVISION   209 217 0.491    5 -0.113
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 189 242 0.439    6 -0.203

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.296 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu May  8 19:58:58 2008
games through: Wed May  7 2008

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