Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       34  7 4746 4242  0.110 20.813    1  0.807    1  0.817    1  0.850    1 0.5831   23  3.908    4  0.614    1  1.087
CAVALIERS     34  6 4882 4480 -0.045 17.977    2  0.742    2  0.760    2  0.511    2 0.5755    3  4.032    2  0.915   11  0.108
ROCKETS       27 13 4559 4319  0.101 20.661    3  0.433    3  0.431    5  0.403    4 0.5440   22  3.921   12  0.230    4  0.575
CELTICS       28 12 4699 4349 -0.015 18.743    4  0.400    4  0.392    3  0.476    3 0.5441   17  3.946    6  0.431    5  0.520
GRIZZLIES     26 15 5044 4723 -0.017 19.290    5  0.263    5  0.250    4  0.444    5 0.5289    1  4.070    1  1.047   21 -0.160
NUGGETS       24 16 4800 4640  0.063 20.468    6  0.252    6  0.246    7  0.311    6 0.5263    5  4.027    3  0.688   17 -0.066
KNICKS        27 15 4932 4660 -0.066 19.095    7  0.245    7  0.235    6  0.312    7 0.5261    8  3.985    5  0.468    9  0.156
CLIPPERS      23 17 4383 4265  0.084 20.744    8  0.223    8  0.214    8  0.287    8 0.5212   29  3.882   15 -0.079    2  0.653
LAKERS        21 17 4245 4337  0.011 19.408    9  0.142    9  0.131   20 -0.138   10 0.5139   15  3.952   19 -0.152   19 -0.125
BUCKS         23 17 4518 4414 -0.032 19.152   10  0.130   10  0.118   11  0.158    9 0.5159   20  3.933   13  0.047    8  0.269
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PACERS        23 19 4837 4824 -0.002 20.935   11  0.104   11  0.100   13  0.104   11 0.5110    6  4.002    7  0.350   20 -0.142
MAVERICKS     22 19 4741 4599  0.031 20.504   12  0.101   12  0.094    9  0.169   12 0.5096   13  3.969   11  0.243   13  0.096
MAGIC         23 19 4390 4355 -0.023 20.539   13  0.086   13  0.084   17 -0.035   13 0.5092   30  3.816   29 -0.718    3  0.648
WARRIORS      20 20 4444 4430  0.094 21.316   14  0.084   14  0.083   15  0.005   15 0.5069   21  3.926   18 -0.139   10  0.150
TIMBERWOLVES  21 19 4390 4314  0.038 20.344   15  0.083   15  0.077   10  0.163   14 0.5081   28  3.889   20 -0.165    6  0.491
HAWKS         21 19 4687 4765 -0.054 19.498   16  0.020   16  0.020   19 -0.117   16 0.5034    4  4.028   10  0.263   26 -0.496
KINGS         21 20 4777 4683 -0.028 19.847   17  0.012   18 -0.002   12  0.135   17 0.5002    9  3.985    9  0.290   15 -0.019
HEAT          20 19 4319 4270 -0.038 18.818   18  0.005   19 -0.004   14  0.036   18 0.5002   25  3.900   22 -0.238    7  0.310
PISTONS       21 20 4595 4644 -0.038 20.064   19 -0.002   17 -0.002   18 -0.074   19 0.4999   16  3.947   17 -0.116   16 -0.032
SPURS         19 20 4358 4367 -0.015 19.318   20 -0.035   20 -0.035   16 -0.008   20 0.4951   19  3.934   16 -0.114   12  0.097
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SUNS          20 20 4516 4567 -0.079 18.974   21 -0.059   21 -0.058   21 -0.165   21 0.4936   12  3.973   14 -0.070   23 -0.259
BULLS         18 23 4816 4942 -0.047 20.235   22 -0.156   22 -0.155   23 -0.226   22 0.4832    2  4.058    8  0.314   29 -0.766
76ERS         15 24 4195 4337 -0.039 19.352   23 -0.267   23 -0.270   22 -0.223   23 0.4701   26  3.897   24 -0.514   14  0.068
NETS          14 27 4383 4674  0.013 21.446   24 -0.314   24 -0.307   28 -0.509   24 0.4653   24  3.904   30 -0.765   22 -0.253
TRAIL BLAZERS 13 27 4315 4674 -0.011 20.887   25 -0.365   25 -0.355   29 -0.553   25 0.4591   14  3.962   25 -0.517   28 -0.588
RAPTORS       10 31 4549 4848  0.084 22.556   26 -0.500   26 -0.495   25 -0.381   26 0.4486   11  3.979   23 -0.258   27 -0.504
JAZZ          10 29 4327 4587  0.007 20.221   27 -0.515   27 -0.511   24 -0.340   27 0.4442   10  3.982   21 -0.198   25 -0.482
HORNETS        9 28 3942 4160 -0.037 18.627   28 -0.569   28 -0.572   26 -0.384   29 0.4400   27  3.892   28 -0.697   18 -0.070
PELICANS      10 32 4547 4916 -0.039 21.695   29 -0.601   29 -0.605   27 -0.490   28 0.4403   18  3.942   26 -0.554   24 -0.426
WIZARDS        6 33 4238 4789  0.028 21.504   30 -0.748   30 -0.752   30 -0.803   30 0.4252    7  3.994   27 -0.602   30 -1.003
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CLIPPERS      23 17 4383 4265  0.084 20.744    8  0.223    8  0.214    8  0.287    8 0.5212   29  3.882   15 -0.079    2  0.653
LAKERS        21 17 4245 4337  0.011 19.408    9  0.142    9  0.131   20 -0.138   10 0.5139   15  3.952   19 -0.152   19 -0.125
WARRIORS      20 20 4444 4430  0.094 21.316   14  0.084   14  0.083   15  0.005   15 0.5069   21  3.926   18 -0.139   10  0.150
KINGS         21 20 4777 4683 -0.028 19.847   17  0.012   18 -0.002   12  0.135   17 0.5002    9  3.985    9  0.290   15 -0.019
SUNS          20 20 4516 4567 -0.079 18.974   21 -0.059   21 -0.058   21 -0.165   21 0.4936   12  3.973   14 -0.070   23 -0.259

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
THUNDER       34  7 4746 4242  0.110 20.813    1  0.807    1  0.817    1  0.850    1 0.5831   23  3.908    4  0.614    1  1.087
NUGGETS       24 16 4800 4640  0.063 20.468    6  0.252    6  0.246    7  0.311    6 0.5263    5  4.027    3  0.688   17 -0.066
TIMBERWOLVES  21 19 4390 4314  0.038 20.344   15  0.083   15  0.077   10  0.163   14 0.5081   28  3.889   20 -0.165    6  0.491
TRAIL BLAZERS 13 27 4315 4674 -0.011 20.887   25 -0.365   25 -0.355   29 -0.553   25 0.4591   14  3.962   25 -0.517   28 -0.588
JAZZ          10 29 4327 4587  0.007 20.221   27 -0.515   27 -0.511   24 -0.340   27 0.4442   10  3.982   21 -0.198   25 -0.482

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKETS       27 13 4559 4319  0.101 20.661    3  0.433    3  0.431    5  0.403    4 0.5440   22  3.921   12  0.230    4  0.575
GRIZZLIES     26 15 5044 4723 -0.017 19.290    5  0.263    5  0.250    4  0.444    5 0.5289    1  4.070    1  1.047   21 -0.160
MAVERICKS     22 19 4741 4599  0.031 20.504   12  0.101   12  0.094    9  0.169   12 0.5096   13  3.969   11  0.243   13  0.096
SPURS         19 20 4358 4367 -0.015 19.318   20 -0.035   20 -0.035   16 -0.008   20 0.4951   19  3.934   16 -0.114   12  0.097
PELICANS      10 32 4547 4916 -0.039 21.695   29 -0.601   29 -0.605   27 -0.490   28 0.4403   18  3.942   26 -0.554   24 -0.426

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAVALIERS     34  6 4882 4480 -0.045 17.977    2  0.742    2  0.760    2  0.511    2 0.5755    3  4.032    2  0.915   11  0.108
BUCKS         23 17 4518 4414 -0.032 19.152   10  0.130   10  0.118   11  0.158    9 0.5159   20  3.933   13  0.047    8  0.269
PACERS        23 19 4837 4824 -0.002 20.935   11  0.104   11  0.100   13  0.104   11 0.5110    6  4.002    7  0.350   20 -0.142
PISTONS       21 20 4595 4644 -0.038 20.064   19 -0.002   17 -0.002   18 -0.074   19 0.4999   16  3.947   17 -0.116   16 -0.032
BULLS         18 23 4816 4942 -0.047 20.235   22 -0.156   22 -0.155   23 -0.226   22 0.4832    2  4.058    8  0.314   29 -0.766

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAGIC         23 19 4390 4355 -0.023 20.539   13  0.086   13  0.084   17 -0.035   13 0.5092   30  3.816   29 -0.718    3  0.648
HAWKS         21 19 4687 4765 -0.054 19.498   16  0.020   16  0.020   19 -0.117   16 0.5034    4  4.028   10  0.263   26 -0.496
HEAT          20 19 4319 4270 -0.038 18.818   18  0.005   19 -0.004   14  0.036   18 0.5002   25  3.900   22 -0.238    7  0.310
HORNETS        9 28 3942 4160 -0.037 18.627   28 -0.569   28 -0.572   26 -0.384   29 0.4400   27  3.892   28 -0.697   18 -0.070
WIZARDS        6 33 4238 4789  0.028 21.504   30 -0.748   30 -0.752   30 -0.803   30 0.4252    7  3.994   27 -0.602   30 -1.003

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CELTICS       28 12 4699 4349 -0.015 18.743    4  0.400    4  0.392    3  0.476    3 0.5441   17  3.946    6  0.431    5  0.520
KNICKS        27 15 4932 4660 -0.066 19.095    7  0.245    7  0.235    6  0.312    7 0.5261    8  3.985    5  0.468    9  0.156
76ERS         15 24 4195 4337 -0.039 19.352   23 -0.267   23 -0.270   22 -0.223   23 0.4701   26  3.897   24 -0.514   14  0.068
NETS          14 27 4383 4674  0.013 21.446   24 -0.314   24 -0.307   28 -0.509   24 0.4653   24  3.904   30 -0.765   22 -0.253
RAPTORS       10 31 4549 4848  0.084 22.556   26 -0.500   26 -0.495   25 -0.381   26 0.4486   11  3.979   23 -0.258   27 -0.504

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 104  99 0.512    1  0.134
CENTRAL DIVISION   119  85 0.583    2  0.084
NORTHWEST DIVISION 102  98 0.510    3  0.075
PACIFIC DIVISION   105  94 0.528    4  0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION   94 109 0.463    5 -0.055
SOUTHEAST DIVISION  79 118 0.401    6 -0.295

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.134 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jan 17 05:30:12 2025
games through: Thu Jan 16 2025

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