Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 17  4 2102 1987  0.087 10.395    1  1.659    1  0.645    5  0.377    1 0.5727  3.853  0.744  0.010  0.000
CHICAGO       19  6 2415 2211  0.059 11.581    2  1.556    2  0.549    2  0.484    2 0.5582  3.755  0.388  0.579  0.000
MIAMI         16  6 2282 2125  0.062 10.492    3  1.467    3  0.466    4  0.405    3 0.5515  3.862  0.819 -0.009  0.000
ATLANTA       16  7 2224 2089  0.037 10.738    4  1.390    4  0.402    8  0.321    7 0.5429  3.738  0.148  0.494  0.000
INDIANA       15  6 1984 1915 -0.005  9.807    5  1.384    5  0.399   12  0.189    4 0.5494  3.771  0.169  0.209  0.000
DENVER        15  7 2325 2174  0.117 10.884    6  1.383    6  0.399    3  0.455    6 0.5474  3.907  1.088 -0.178  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   13  7 1972 1955  0.136 10.628    7  1.328    7  0.378   13  0.142    5 0.5494  3.835  0.423 -0.139  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   15  9 2345 2252  0.138 12.483    8  1.277    8  0.319    6  0.344    8 0.5378  3.776  0.347  0.341  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  16  6 2145 1890 -0.109  8.520    9  1.260    9  0.301    1  0.531    9 0.5292  3.709  0.222  0.839  0.000
DALLAS        14  9 2170 2089  0.058 11.317   10  1.194   10  0.244    9  0.266   10 0.5291  3.728  0.044  0.488  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     13  9 2059 1994  0.052 10.793   11  1.147   11  0.200   11  0.202   11 0.5271  3.706 -0.120  0.523  0.000
MEMPHIS       12 10 2061 2015  0.149 11.677   12  1.132   12  0.191   10  0.229   12 0.5216  3.730  0.018  0.439  0.000
UTAH          12  9 2045 2042 -0.007 10.123   13  1.066   13  0.133   18 -0.000   13 0.5167  3.812  0.170 -0.170  0.000
PORTLAND      13 10 2240 2104  0.010 10.627   14  1.042   14  0.100    7  0.340   14 0.5147  3.768  0.305  0.375  0.000
ORLANDO       13  9 2025 2010 -0.150  9.589   15  1.016   15  0.092   19 -0.133   16 0.5077  3.739 -0.301  0.035  0.000
HOUSTON       12 10 2163 2135 -0.001 10.531   16  1.013   16  0.085   17  0.085   15 0.5081  3.823  0.307 -0.138  0.000
MILWAUKEE     10 11 1990 1988  0.104 10.971   17  0.951   17  0.022   15  0.100   17 0.5009  3.775  0.099  0.102  0.000
MINNESOTA     10 12 2127 2100  0.036 10.855   18  0.858   18 -0.063   14  0.101   18 0.4941  3.822  0.321 -0.119  0.000
BOSTON        11 10 1896 1824 -0.208  8.328   19  0.799   19 -0.120   16  0.091   19 0.4880  3.676 -0.365  0.546  0.000
PHOENIX        8 13 1952 2031  0.067 11.056   20  0.723   20 -0.183   20 -0.169   23 0.4707  3.821  0.045 -0.382  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SACRAMENTO     7 15 1997 2231  0.147 12.749   21  0.694   21 -0.206   27 -0.481   22 0.4712  3.819 -0.275 -0.687  0.000
GOLDEN STATE   8 12 1946 1986 -0.104  9.079   22  0.666   22 -0.251   21 -0.175   20 0.4731  3.845  0.154 -0.504  0.000
CLEVELAND      8 12 1872 1937 -0.148  9.160   23  0.632   24 -0.271   24 -0.292   24 0.4671  3.805 -0.155 -0.430  0.000
NEW JERSEY     8 15 2120 2273 -0.030 11.808   24  0.622   23 -0.270   25 -0.392   21 0.4724  3.801 -0.274 -0.509  0.000
TORONTO        7 16 1978 2150  0.029 12.208   25  0.546   25 -0.339   26 -0.442   25 0.4634  3.674 -0.906  0.022  0.000
NEW YORK       8 14 2089 2103 -0.198  9.398   26  0.462   26 -0.426   22 -0.182   26 0.4502  3.786 -0.133 -0.231  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    4 19 2020 2147  0.135 12.735   27  0.330   27 -0.542   23 -0.227   27 0.4348  3.688 -0.628  0.174  0.000
DETROIT        4 20 2066 2326  0.021 12.996   28  0.225   28 -0.642   29 -0.627   28 0.4283  3.720 -0.882 -0.373  0.000
WASHINGTON     4 18 1968 2172 -0.101 11.150   29  0.190   29 -0.677   28 -0.568   29 0.4207  3.793 -0.485 -0.652  0.000
CHARLOTTE      3 20 2007 2330 -0.194 11.343   30  0.000   30 -0.832   30 -0.967   30 0.4063  3.769 -0.996 -0.938  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA CLIPPERS   13  7 1972 1955  0.136 10.628    7  1.328    7  0.378   13  0.142    5 0.5494  3.835  0.423 -0.139  0.000
LA LAKERS     13  9 2059 1994  0.052 10.793   11  1.147   11  0.200   11  0.202   11 0.5271  3.706 -0.120  0.523  0.000
PHOENIX        8 13 1952 2031  0.067 11.056   20  0.723   20 -0.183   20 -0.169   23 0.4707  3.821  0.045 -0.382  0.000
SACRAMENTO     7 15 1997 2231  0.147 12.749   21  0.694   21 -0.206   27 -0.481   22 0.4712  3.819 -0.275 -0.687  0.000
GOLDEN STATE   8 12 1946 1986 -0.104  9.079   22  0.666   22 -0.251   21 -0.175   20 0.4731  3.845  0.154 -0.504  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 17  4 2102 1987  0.087 10.395    1  1.659    1  0.645    5  0.377    1 0.5727  3.853  0.744  0.010  0.000
DENVER        15  7 2325 2174  0.117 10.884    6  1.383    6  0.399    3  0.455    6 0.5474  3.907  1.088 -0.178  0.000
UTAH          12  9 2045 2042 -0.007 10.123   13  1.066   13  0.133   18 -0.000   13 0.5167  3.812  0.170 -0.170  0.000
PORTLAND      13 10 2240 2104  0.010 10.627   14  1.042   14  0.100    7  0.340   14 0.5147  3.768  0.305  0.375  0.000
MINNESOTA     10 12 2127 2100  0.036 10.855   18  0.858   18 -0.063   14  0.101   18 0.4941  3.822  0.321 -0.119  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   15  9 2345 2252  0.138 12.483    8  1.277    8  0.319    6  0.344    8 0.5378  3.776  0.347  0.341  0.000
DALLAS        14  9 2170 2089  0.058 11.317   10  1.194   10  0.244    9  0.266   10 0.5291  3.728  0.044  0.488  0.000
MEMPHIS       12 10 2061 2015  0.149 11.677   12  1.132   12  0.191   10  0.229   12 0.5216  3.730  0.018  0.439  0.000
HOUSTON       12 10 2163 2135 -0.001 10.531   16  1.013   16  0.085   17  0.085   15 0.5081  3.823  0.307 -0.138  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    4 19 2020 2147  0.135 12.735   27  0.330   27 -0.542   23 -0.227   27 0.4348  3.688 -0.628  0.174  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO       19  6 2415 2211  0.059 11.581    2  1.556    2  0.549    2  0.484    2 0.5582  3.755  0.388  0.579  0.000
INDIANA       15  6 1984 1915 -0.005  9.807    5  1.384    5  0.399   12  0.189    4 0.5494  3.771  0.169  0.209  0.000
MILWAUKEE     10 11 1990 1988  0.104 10.971   17  0.951   17  0.022   15  0.100   17 0.5009  3.775  0.099  0.102  0.000
CLEVELAND      8 12 1872 1937 -0.148  9.160   23  0.632   24 -0.271   24 -0.292   24 0.4671  3.805 -0.155 -0.430  0.000
DETROIT        4 20 2066 2326  0.021 12.996   28  0.225   28 -0.642   29 -0.627   28 0.4283  3.720 -0.882 -0.373  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         16  6 2282 2125  0.062 10.492    3  1.467    3  0.466    4  0.405    3 0.5515  3.862  0.819 -0.009  0.000
ATLANTA       16  7 2224 2089  0.037 10.738    4  1.390    4  0.402    8  0.321    7 0.5429  3.738  0.148  0.494  0.000
ORLANDO       13  9 2025 2010 -0.150  9.589   15  1.016   15  0.092   19 -0.133   16 0.5077  3.739 -0.301  0.035  0.000
WASHINGTON     4 18 1968 2172 -0.101 11.150   29  0.190   29 -0.677   28 -0.568   29 0.4207  3.793 -0.485 -0.652  0.000
CHARLOTTE      3 20 2007 2330 -0.194 11.343   30  0.000   30 -0.832   30 -0.967   30 0.4063  3.769 -0.996 -0.938  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA  16  6 2145 1890 -0.109  8.520    9  1.260    9  0.301    1  0.531    9 0.5292  3.709  0.222  0.839  0.000
BOSTON        11 10 1896 1824 -0.208  8.328   19  0.799   19 -0.120   16  0.091   19 0.4880  3.676 -0.365  0.546  0.000
NEW JERSEY     8 15 2120 2273 -0.030 11.808   24  0.622   23 -0.270   25 -0.392   21 0.4724  3.801 -0.274 -0.509  0.000
TORONTO        7 16 1978 2150  0.029 12.208   25  0.546   25 -0.339   26 -0.442   25 0.4634  3.674 -0.906  0.022  0.000
NEW YORK       8 14 2089 2103 -0.198  9.398   26  0.462   26 -0.426   22 -0.182   26 0.4502  3.786 -0.133 -0.231  0.000

DIVISION            W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 67 42 0.615    1  0.331
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 57 57 0.500    2  0.171
CENTRAL DIVISION   56 55 0.505    3 -0.038
ATLANTIC DIVISION  50 61 0.450    4 -0.122
PACIFIC DIVISION   49 56 0.467    5 -0.123
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 52 60 0.464    6 -0.212

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.309 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.026 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Feb  3 05:30:10 2012
games through: Thu Feb  2 2012

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