Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     55 15 7154 6649  0.015 33.536    1  2.618    1  0.680    2  0.480    1 0.5661  3.810  0.368  0.592  0.000
LA LAKERS     51 18 7107 6692  0.038 33.881    2  2.456    2  0.583    4  0.390    2 0.5587  3.814  0.296  0.484  0.000
ORLANDO       49 21 7140 6655  0.020 33.851    3  2.266    3  0.456    1  0.519    3 0.5467  3.819  0.450  0.589  0.000
DENVER        47 22 7430 7062  0.020 33.563    4  2.191    4  0.412    5  0.348    4 0.5427  3.921  0.778 -0.082  0.000
DALLAS        46 22 6921 6772  0.013 33.473    5  2.165    5  0.403   15  0.095    5 0.5426  3.830  0.077  0.114  0.000
UTAH          44 25 7147 6773  0.059 34.468    6  2.074    6  0.338    3  0.428    6 0.5370  3.858  0.547  0.309  0.000
ATLANTA       44 24 6955 6627  0.004 32.740    7  2.052    7  0.326    9  0.261    7 0.5327  3.827  0.231  0.290  0.000
BOSTON        44 24 6717 6401 -0.005 32.429    8  2.022    8  0.310   10  0.223   10 0.5312  3.769 -0.081  0.527  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 42 25 6713 6467  0.027 33.054    9  2.003    9  0.300    8  0.274    8 0.5317  3.793  0.081  0.468  0.000
PHOENIX       43 26 7594 7317  0.025 33.944   10  1.993   10  0.293    7  0.300    9 0.5313  3.984  1.051 -0.451  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   41 26 6784 6448  0.006 32.317   11  1.921   11  0.246    6  0.343   11 0.5260  3.803  0.199  0.487  0.000
PORTLAND      42 28 6865 6645  0.007 34.124   12  1.882   12  0.224   11  0.201   12 0.5230  3.747 -0.207  0.610  0.000
MILWAUKEE     37 30 6569 6455 -0.024 32.145   13  1.657   13  0.088   12  0.163   14 0.5085  3.765 -0.161  0.486  0.000
HOUSTON       35 32 6811 6790  0.030 33.785   14  1.634   14  0.076   16  0.004   13 0.5087  3.844  0.056 -0.048  0.000
CHARLOTTE     35 33 6455 6384  0.042 34.429   15  1.613   15  0.063   13  0.139   15 0.5059  3.716 -0.409  0.686  0.000
MEMPHIS       36 33 7064 7112 -0.010 34.019   16  1.578   16  0.047   17 -0.043   16 0.5052  3.873  0.151 -0.237  0.000
MIAMI         35 34 6641 6574  0.034 34.751   17  1.576   17  0.041   14  0.097   17 0.5040  3.746 -0.314  0.508  0.000
TORONTO       33 34 6958 7105 -0.010 33.285   18  1.473   18 -0.016   20 -0.194   18 0.4972  3.941  0.337 -0.724  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   33 37 7001 7163  0.012 35.383   19  1.426   19 -0.044   18 -0.139   19 0.4958  3.835 -0.133 -0.146  0.000
CHICAGO       31 37 6609 6796  0.004 34.276   20  1.361   20 -0.083   19 -0.171   20 0.4905  3.798 -0.341 -0.001  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA CLIPPERS   26 43 6597 6995 -0.005 35.164   21  1.072   21 -0.267   28 -0.422   21 0.4726  3.806 -0.552 -0.293  0.000
SACRAMENTO    23 46 6960 7237  0.011 35.213   22  0.927   22 -0.361   23 -0.271   22 0.4624  3.867 -0.110 -0.432  0.000
NEW YORK      25 44 6989 7181 -0.072 32.895   23  0.917   23 -0.367   22 -0.247   23 0.4606  3.889  0.021 -0.516  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  24 45 6687 6938 -0.045 33.701   24  0.904   24 -0.370   24 -0.295   25 0.4597  3.810 -0.407 -0.183  0.000
DETROIT       23 46 6459 6802 -0.028 34.392   25  0.863   25 -0.392   27 -0.373   26 0.4588  3.755 -0.742 -0.004  0.000
INDIANA       23 46 6869 7206 -0.027 34.440   26  0.859   26 -0.396   25 -0.303   24 0.4597  3.889 -0.032 -0.575  0.000
WASHINGTON    21 46 6457 6769 -0.039 33.106   27  0.791   27 -0.436   26 -0.368   27 0.4528  3.812 -0.468 -0.267  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  19 49 7350 7618  0.015 34.725   28  0.688   28 -0.502   21 -0.219   28 0.4505  4.029  0.769 -1.207  0.000
MINNESOTA     14 56 6864 7532 -0.016 35.909   29  0.380   29 -0.701   29 -0.594   29 0.4314  3.882 -0.359 -0.829  0.000
NEW JERSEY     7 61 6193 6895 -0.031 34.866   30  0.000   30 -0.996   30 -0.636   30 0.4055  3.770 -0.938 -0.334  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA LAKERS     51 18 7107 6692  0.038 33.881    2  2.456    2  0.583    4  0.390    2 0.5587  3.814  0.296  0.484  0.000
PHOENIX       43 26 7594 7317  0.025 33.944   10  1.993   10  0.293    7  0.300    9 0.5313  3.984  1.051 -0.451  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   26 43 6597 6995 -0.005 35.164   21  1.072   21 -0.267   28 -0.422   21 0.4726  3.806 -0.552 -0.293  0.000
SACRAMENTO    23 46 6960 7237  0.011 35.213   22  0.927   22 -0.361   23 -0.271   22 0.4624  3.867 -0.110 -0.432  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  19 49 7350 7618  0.015 34.725   28  0.688   28 -0.502   21 -0.219   28 0.4505  4.029  0.769 -1.207  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER        47 22 7430 7062  0.020 33.563    4  2.191    4  0.412    5  0.348    4 0.5427  3.921  0.778 -0.082  0.000
UTAH          44 25 7147 6773  0.059 34.468    6  2.074    6  0.338    3  0.428    6 0.5370  3.858  0.547  0.309  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 42 25 6713 6467  0.027 33.054    9  2.003    9  0.300    8  0.274    8 0.5317  3.793  0.081  0.468  0.000
PORTLAND      42 28 6865 6645  0.007 34.124   12  1.882   12  0.224   11  0.201   12 0.5230  3.747 -0.207  0.610  0.000
MINNESOTA     14 56 6864 7532 -0.016 35.909   29  0.380   29 -0.701   29 -0.594   29 0.4314  3.882 -0.359 -0.829  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS        46 22 6921 6772  0.013 33.473    5  2.165    5  0.403   15  0.095    5 0.5426  3.830  0.077  0.114  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   41 26 6784 6448  0.006 32.317   11  1.921   11  0.246    6  0.343   11 0.5260  3.803  0.199  0.487  0.000
HOUSTON       35 32 6811 6790  0.030 33.785   14  1.634   14  0.076   16  0.004   13 0.5087  3.844  0.056 -0.048  0.000
MEMPHIS       36 33 7064 7112 -0.010 34.019   16  1.578   16  0.047   17 -0.043   16 0.5052  3.873  0.151 -0.237  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   33 37 7001 7163  0.012 35.383   19  1.426   19 -0.044   18 -0.139   19 0.4958  3.835 -0.133 -0.146  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     55 15 7154 6649  0.015 33.536    1  2.618    1  0.680    2  0.480    1 0.5661  3.810  0.368  0.592  0.000
MILWAUKEE     37 30 6569 6455 -0.024 32.145   13  1.657   13  0.088   12  0.163   14 0.5085  3.765 -0.161  0.486  0.000
CHICAGO       31 37 6609 6796  0.004 34.276   20  1.361   20 -0.083   19 -0.171   20 0.4905  3.798 -0.341 -0.001  0.000
DETROIT       23 46 6459 6802 -0.028 34.392   25  0.863   25 -0.392   27 -0.373   26 0.4588  3.755 -0.742 -0.004  0.000
INDIANA       23 46 6869 7206 -0.027 34.440   26  0.859   26 -0.396   25 -0.303   24 0.4597  3.889 -0.032 -0.575  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ORLANDO       49 21 7140 6655  0.020 33.851    3  2.266    3  0.456    1  0.519    3 0.5467  3.819  0.450  0.589  0.000
ATLANTA       44 24 6955 6627  0.004 32.740    7  2.052    7  0.326    9  0.261    7 0.5327  3.827  0.231  0.290  0.000
CHARLOTTE     35 33 6455 6384  0.042 34.429   15  1.613   15  0.063   13  0.139   15 0.5059  3.716 -0.409  0.686  0.000
MIAMI         35 34 6641 6574  0.034 34.751   17  1.576   17  0.041   14  0.097   17 0.5040  3.746 -0.314  0.508  0.000
WASHINGTON    21 46 6457 6769 -0.039 33.106   27  0.791   27 -0.436   26 -0.368   27 0.4528  3.812 -0.468 -0.267  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON        44 24 6717 6401 -0.005 32.429    8  2.022    8  0.310   10  0.223   10 0.5312  3.769 -0.081  0.527  0.000
TORONTO       33 34 6958 7105 -0.010 33.285   18  1.473   18 -0.016   20 -0.194   18 0.4972  3.941  0.337 -0.724  0.000
NEW YORK      25 44 6989 7181 -0.072 32.895   23  0.917   23 -0.367   22 -0.247   23 0.4606  3.889  0.021 -0.516  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  24 45 6687 6938 -0.045 33.701   24  0.904   24 -0.370   24 -0.295   25 0.4597  3.810 -0.407 -0.183  0.000
NEW JERSEY     7 61 6193 6895 -0.031 34.866   30  0.000   30 -0.996   30 -0.636   30 0.4055  3.770 -0.938 -0.334  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 189 156 0.548    1  0.154
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 184 158 0.538    2  0.147
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 191 150 0.560    3  0.074
PACIFIC DIVISION   162 182 0.471    4 -0.045
CENTRAL DIVISION   169 174 0.493    5 -0.071
ATLANTIC DIVISION  133 208 0.390    6 -0.249

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.233 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.025 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Mar 20 07:08:41 2010
games through: Fri Mar 19 2010

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