Dolphin Ratings - National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         74 17 9323 8553 -0.029 43.320    1  2.490    1  0.747    1  0.584    1 0.5700  3.821  0.635  0.533  0.000
SAN ANTONIO   67 26 9581 8936  0.072 48.131    2  2.202    2  0.574    3  0.467    2 0.5570  3.823  0.528  0.407  0.000
OKLAHOMA CITY 65 28 9752 8982  0.087 48.247    3  2.136    3  0.531    2  0.580    3 0.5517  3.858  0.811  0.348  0.000
MEMPHIS       64 30 8811 8440  0.117 50.559    4  2.084    4  0.519    4  0.415    4 0.5507  3.671 -0.225  1.055  0.000
DENVER        59 29 9322 8930  0.055 45.574    5  1.960    5  0.440    6  0.330    5 0.5444  3.912  0.824 -0.165  0.000
LA CLIPPERS   58 30 8857 8361  0.064 45.428    6  1.906    6  0.408    5  0.351    6 0.5419  3.822  0.410  0.292  0.000
NEW YORK      60 34 9259 8880 -0.007 46.665    7  1.715    7  0.312    7  0.264    7 0.5311  3.808  0.254  0.274  0.000
INDIANA       57 36 8778 8421 -0.020 45.766    8  1.597    8  0.235    8  0.257    8 0.5240  3.701 -0.247  0.760  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  53 41 9528 9453  0.086 50.642    9  1.571    9  0.222   10  0.173    9 0.5227  3.855  0.389 -0.043  0.000
BROOKLYN      52 37 8640 8480 -0.049 43.378   10  1.444   10  0.152   11  0.099   10 0.5159  3.780 -0.043  0.241  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON       47 41 9288 9038  0.075 46.573   11  1.419   11  0.135    9  0.239   11 0.5129  3.932  0.835 -0.356  0.000
LA LAKERS     45 41 8722 8702  0.042 45.116   12  1.307   12  0.083   14  0.001   13 0.5089  3.877  0.324 -0.321  0.000
CHICAGO       50 44 8744 8798  0.003 48.290   13  1.286   13  0.076   17 -0.087   12 0.5094  3.714 -0.530  0.357  0.000
UTAH          43 39 8038 8045  0.014 42.297   14  1.280   14  0.069   12  0.012   14 0.5066  3.801 -0.033  0.057  0.000
ATLANTA       46 42 8568 8566 -0.033 43.886   15  1.199   15  0.023   15 -0.062   15 0.5023  3.811 -0.057 -0.067  0.000
DALLAS        41 41 8293 8342  0.008 42.284   16  1.169   16  0.003   13  0.011   16 0.5005  3.860  0.253 -0.231  0.000
BOSTON        43 44 8312 8362 -0.027 43.745   17  1.106   17 -0.037   16 -0.073   17 0.4970  3.747 -0.370  0.223  0.000
MILWAUKEE     38 48 8449 8631 -0.032 43.557   18  0.885   18 -0.156   21 -0.197   18 0.4852  3.846 -0.024 -0.371  0.000
PORTLAND      33 49 7995 8255  0.011 43.017   19  0.797   19 -0.204   23 -0.233   19 0.4786  3.823 -0.172 -0.293  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  34 48 7640 7914 -0.058 41.004   20  0.738   20 -0.240   24 -0.234   20 0.4759  3.759 -0.474  0.007  0.000
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TORONTO       34 48 7971 8092 -0.069 40.187   21  0.721   21 -0.256   18 -0.113   21 0.4735  3.802 -0.150 -0.076  0.000
MINNESOTA     31 51 7851 8045  0.008 42.711   22  0.694   22 -0.271   20 -0.146   22 0.4723  3.793 -0.228 -0.064  0.000
SACRAMENTO    28 54 8219 8619 -0.005 42.961   23  0.510   23 -0.373   22 -0.229   23 0.4640  3.900  0.205 -0.664  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   27 55 7714 8031  0.014 43.297   24  0.502   24 -0.380   25 -0.247   24 0.4618  3.768 -0.443 -0.050  0.000
WASHINGTON    29 53 7644 7852 -0.060 40.809   25  0.489   25 -0.388   19 -0.144   25 0.4609  3.743 -0.457  0.169  0.000
DETROIT       29 53 7778 8105 -0.081 40.520   26  0.444   26 -0.410   26 -0.354   26 0.4593  3.797 -0.416 -0.291  0.000
PHOENIX       25 57 7805 8335 -0.010 43.175   27  0.371   27 -0.449   28 -0.441   27 0.4548  3.815 -0.418 -0.464  0.000
CLEVELAND     24 58 7913 8297 -0.072 40.885   28  0.230   28 -0.540   27 -0.370   28 0.4459  3.847 -0.194 -0.547  0.000
CHARLOTTE     21 61 7661 8418 -0.095 41.196   29  0.018   29 -0.653   30 -0.649   29 0.4365  3.821 -0.597 -0.701  0.000
ORLANDO       20 62 7718 8291 -0.085 41.051   30  0.000   30 -0.671   29 -0.557   30 0.4338  3.814 -0.539 -0.575  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LA CLIPPERS   58 30 8857 8361  0.064 45.428    6  1.906    6  0.408    5  0.351    6 0.5419  3.822  0.410  0.292  0.000
GOLDEN STATE  53 41 9528 9453  0.086 50.642    9  1.571    9  0.222   10  0.173    9 0.5227  3.855  0.389 -0.043  0.000
LA LAKERS     45 41 8722 8702  0.042 45.116   12  1.307   12  0.083   14  0.001   13 0.5089  3.877  0.324 -0.321  0.000
SACRAMENTO    28 54 8219 8619 -0.005 42.961   23  0.510   23 -0.373   22 -0.229   23 0.4640  3.900  0.205 -0.664  0.000
PHOENIX       25 57 7805 8335 -0.010 43.175   27  0.371   27 -0.449   28 -0.441   27 0.4548  3.815 -0.418 -0.464  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OKLAHOMA CITY 65 28 9752 8982  0.087 48.247    3  2.136    3  0.531    2  0.580    3 0.5517  3.858  0.811  0.348  0.000
DENVER        59 29 9322 8930  0.055 45.574    5  1.960    5  0.440    6  0.330    5 0.5444  3.912  0.824 -0.165  0.000
UTAH          43 39 8038 8045  0.014 42.297   14  1.280   14  0.069   12  0.012   14 0.5066  3.801 -0.033  0.057  0.000
PORTLAND      33 49 7995 8255  0.011 43.017   19  0.797   19 -0.204   23 -0.233   19 0.4786  3.823 -0.172 -0.293  0.000
MINNESOTA     31 51 7851 8045  0.008 42.711   22  0.694   22 -0.271   20 -0.146   22 0.4723  3.793 -0.228 -0.064  0.000

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN ANTONIO   67 26 9581 8936  0.072 48.131    2  2.202    2  0.574    3  0.467    2 0.5570  3.823  0.528  0.407  0.000
MEMPHIS       64 30 8811 8440  0.117 50.559    4  2.084    4  0.519    4  0.415    4 0.5507  3.671 -0.225  1.055  0.000
HOUSTON       47 41 9288 9038  0.075 46.573   11  1.419   11  0.135    9  0.239   11 0.5129  3.932  0.835 -0.356  0.000
DALLAS        41 41 8293 8342  0.008 42.284   16  1.169   16  0.003   13  0.011   16 0.5005  3.860  0.253 -0.231  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   27 55 7714 8031  0.014 43.297   24  0.502   24 -0.380   25 -0.247   24 0.4618  3.768 -0.443 -0.050  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANA       57 36 8778 8421 -0.020 45.766    8  1.597    8  0.235    8  0.257    8 0.5240  3.701 -0.247  0.760  0.000
CHICAGO       50 44 8744 8798  0.003 48.290   13  1.286   13  0.076   17 -0.087   12 0.5094  3.714 -0.530  0.357  0.000
MILWAUKEE     38 48 8449 8631 -0.032 43.557   18  0.885   18 -0.156   21 -0.197   18 0.4852  3.846 -0.024 -0.371  0.000
DETROIT       29 53 7778 8105 -0.081 40.520   26  0.444   26 -0.410   26 -0.354   26 0.4593  3.797 -0.416 -0.291  0.000
CLEVELAND     24 58 7913 8297 -0.072 40.885   28  0.230   28 -0.540   27 -0.370   28 0.4459  3.847 -0.194 -0.547  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
MIAMI         74 17 9323 8553 -0.029 43.320    1  2.490    1  0.747    1  0.584    1 0.5700  3.821  0.635  0.533  0.000
ATLANTA       46 42 8568 8566 -0.033 43.886   15  1.199   15  0.023   15 -0.062   15 0.5023  3.811 -0.057 -0.067  0.000
WASHINGTON    29 53 7644 7852 -0.060 40.809   25  0.489   25 -0.388   19 -0.144   25 0.4609  3.743 -0.457  0.169  0.000
CHARLOTTE     21 61 7661 8418 -0.095 41.196   29  0.018   29 -0.653   30 -0.649   29 0.4365  3.821 -0.597 -0.701  0.000
ORLANDO       20 62 7718 8291 -0.085 41.051   30  0.000   30 -0.671   29 -0.557   30 0.4338  3.814 -0.539 -0.575  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                              STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW YORK      60 34 9259 8880 -0.007 46.665    7  1.715    7  0.312    7  0.264    7 0.5311  3.808  0.254  0.274  0.000
BROOKLYN      52 37 8640 8480 -0.049 43.378   10  1.444   10  0.152   11  0.099   10 0.5159  3.780 -0.043  0.241  0.000
BOSTON        43 44 8312 8362 -0.027 43.745   17  1.106   17 -0.037   16 -0.073   17 0.4970  3.747 -0.370  0.223  0.000
PHILADELPHIA  34 48 7640 7914 -0.058 41.004   20  0.738   20 -0.240   24 -0.234   20 0.4759  3.759 -0.474  0.007  0.000
TORONTO       34 48 7971 8092 -0.069 40.187   21  0.721   21 -0.256   18 -0.113   21 0.4735  3.802 -0.150 -0.076  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
SOUTHWEST DIVISION 246 193 0.560    1  0.197
NORTHWEST DIVISION 231 196 0.541    2  0.137
ATLANTIC DIVISION  223 211 0.514    3 -0.030
PACIFIC DIVISION   209 223 0.484    4 -0.031
CENTRAL DIVISION   198 239 0.453    5 -0.156
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 190 235 0.447    6 -0.230

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.273 points in main ratings (0.186 for semineutral)
     0.028 points in improved RPI (0.019 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon May 20 05:30:12 2013
games through: Sun May 19 2013

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