Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.243 10.192    1  2.003    1  1.092    1  0.790    1 0.6520  1.512  1.194  0.385  0.000
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.296 11.988    3  1.602    2  0.634    6  0.420    4 0.6001  1.265  0.477  0.364  0.000
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.187  9.401    2  1.627    3  0.628    7  0.318    2 0.6070  1.451  0.633  0.003  0.000
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.101  9.331    4  1.593    4  0.598    4  0.426    3 0.6015  1.350  0.597  0.255  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.145  8.802    5  1.574    5  0.579    3  0.463    5 0.5945  1.298  0.564  0.362  0.000
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.263 10.478    6  1.509    6  0.501    2  0.569    6 0.5821  1.157  0.485  0.652  0.000
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.183  9.837    7  1.438    7  0.430    5  0.421    7 0.5671  1.370  0.621  0.221  0.000
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.061  9.105    8  1.224    8  0.233   15  0.006    9 0.5334  0.934 -0.343  0.355  0.000
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.234  9.996    9  1.196    9  0.205    9  0.223    8 0.5394  1.107  0.077  0.368  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.238  9.379   10  1.146   10  0.147    8  0.245   10 0.5317  1.054  0.035  0.455  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.214  6.888   12  1.041   11  0.091   17 -0.028   17 0.4993  1.461  0.302 -0.357  0.000
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.114  7.410   11  1.048   12  0.037   11  0.168   16 0.4997  1.128  0.048  0.287  0.000
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.074  8.417   13  0.981   13  0.032   10  0.175   11 0.5152  1.199  0.145  0.205  0.000
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.218  7.381   14  0.980   14  0.026   12  0.130   15 0.5009  1.270  0.194  0.067  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.158  9.191   15  0.935   15 -0.002   13  0.109   12 0.5049  1.196  0.076  0.143  0.000
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.135  9.331   16  0.915   16 -0.013   21 -0.198   13 0.5042  1.466  0.138 -0.535  0.000
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.006  8.152   17  0.911   17 -0.022   14  0.041   14 0.5014  1.437  0.336 -0.253  0.000
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.054  8.886   18  0.849   18 -0.066   20 -0.181   19 0.4906  1.371  0.020 -0.382  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.021  8.828   19  0.832   19 -0.073   23 -0.225   20 0.4843  0.907 -0.604  0.154  0.000
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.170  7.455   20  0.811   20 -0.101   16 -0.012   18 0.4945  0.962 -0.329  0.305  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.169  7.746   21  0.658   21 -0.216   25 -0.323   21 0.4712  0.990 -0.608 -0.038  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.347  6.333   22  0.620   22 -0.257   24 -0.229   23 0.4565  1.549  0.231 -0.689  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.192  7.206   23  0.618   23 -0.269   18 -0.101   22 0.4616  1.492  0.274 -0.477  0.000
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.208  7.062   24  0.605   24 -0.282   19 -0.124   24 0.4455  1.468  0.216 -0.463  0.000
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.132  8.026   25  0.430   25 -0.434   27 -0.349   28 0.4203  1.095 -0.510 -0.187  0.000
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.013  8.751   26  0.424   26 -0.438   28 -0.373   25 0.4286  0.839 -0.825  0.079  0.000
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.008  8.664   27  0.380   27 -0.489   26 -0.334   26 0.4284  1.182 -0.386 -0.283  0.000
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.594   28  0.377   28 -0.494   22 -0.202   27 0.4233  1.059 -0.406  0.002  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.348  6.931   29  0.311   29 -0.568   31 -0.630   30 0.4048  0.858 -1.063 -0.198  0.000
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.205  7.777   30  0.295   30 -0.592   30 -0.603   29 0.4104  1.178 -0.660 -0.546  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.329  7.223   31  0.110   31 -0.805   32 -0.635   31 0.3729  1.197 -0.669 -0.602  0.000
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.030  8.817   32  0.000   32 -0.929   29 -0.468   32 0.3659  1.247 -0.435 -0.500  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN DIEGO     13  6 469 335  0.263 10.478    6  1.509    6  0.501    2  0.569    6 0.5821  1.157  0.485  0.652  0.000
DENVER         7  9 320 409  0.054  8.886   18  0.849   18 -0.066   20 -0.181   19 0.4906  1.371  0.020 -0.382  0.000
KANSAS CITY    4 12 226 335  0.013  8.751   26  0.424   26 -0.438   28 -0.373   25 0.4286  0.839 -0.825  0.079  0.000
OAKLAND        4 12 283 398 -0.008  8.664   27  0.380   27 -0.489   26 -0.334   26 0.4284  1.182 -0.386 -0.283  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANAPOLIS  13  4 474 290  0.145  8.802    5  1.574    5  0.579    3  0.463    5 0.5945  1.298  0.564  0.362  0.000
JACKSONVILLE  12  6 462 364  0.183  9.837    7  1.438    7  0.430    5  0.421    7 0.5671  1.370  0.621  0.221  0.000
TENNESSEE     10  7 307 314  0.061  9.105    8  1.224    8  0.233   15  0.006    9 0.5334  0.934 -0.343  0.355  0.000
HOUSTON        8  8 379 384 -0.006  8.152   17  0.911   17 -0.022   14  0.041   14 0.5014  1.437  0.336 -0.253  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CLEVELAND     10  6 402 382 -0.214  6.888   12  1.041   11  0.091   17 -0.028   17 0.4993  1.461  0.302 -0.357  0.000
PITTSBURGH    10  7 422 300 -0.114  7.410   11  1.048   12  0.037   11  0.168   16 0.4997  1.128  0.048  0.287  0.000
CINCINNATI     7  9 380 385 -0.208  7.062   24  0.605   24 -0.282   19 -0.124   24 0.4455  1.468  0.216 -0.463  0.000
BALTIMORE      5 11 275 384 -0.132  8.026   25  0.430   25 -0.434   27 -0.349   28 0.4203  1.095 -0.510 -0.187  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   18  1 655 323  0.243 10.192    1  2.003    1  1.092    1  0.790    1 0.6520  1.512  1.194  0.385  0.000
BUFFALO        7  9 252 354  0.021  8.828   19  0.832   19 -0.073   23 -0.225   20 0.4843  0.907 -0.604  0.154  0.000
N.Y. JETS      4 12 268 355 -0.012  8.594   28  0.377   28 -0.494   22 -0.202   27 0.4233  1.059 -0.406  0.002  0.000
MIAMI          1 15 267 437 -0.030  8.817   32  0.000   32 -0.929   29 -0.468   32 0.3659  1.247 -0.435 -0.500  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE       11  7 448 347 -0.218  7.381   14  0.980   14  0.026   12  0.130   15 0.5009  1.270  0.194  0.067  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 404 399 -0.347  6.333   22  0.620   22 -0.257   24 -0.229   23 0.4565  1.549  0.231 -0.689  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO  5 11 219 364 -0.348  6.931   29  0.311   29 -0.568   31 -0.630   30 0.4048  0.858 -1.063 -0.198  0.000
ST. LOUIS      3 13 263 438 -0.329  7.223   31  0.110   31 -0.805   32 -0.635   31 0.3729  1.197 -0.669 -0.602  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      9  8 348 294 -0.170  7.455   20  0.811   20 -0.101   16 -0.012   18 0.4945  0.962 -0.329  0.305  0.000
CAROLINA       7  9 267 347 -0.169  7.746   21  0.658   21 -0.216   25 -0.323   21 0.4712  0.990 -0.608 -0.038  0.000
NEW ORLEANS    7  9 379 388 -0.192  7.206   23  0.618   23 -0.269   18 -0.101   22 0.4616  1.492  0.274 -0.477  0.000
ATLANTA        4 12 259 414 -0.205  7.777   30  0.295   30 -0.592   30 -0.603   29 0.4104  1.178 -0.660 -0.546  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     14  4 497 334  0.101  9.331    4  1.593    4  0.598    4  0.426    3 0.6015  1.350  0.597  0.255  0.000
MINNESOTA      8  8 365 311  0.074  8.417   13  0.981   13  0.032   10  0.175   11 0.5152  1.199  0.145  0.205  0.000
CHICAGO        7  9 334 348  0.158  9.191   15  0.935   15 -0.002   13  0.109   12 0.5049  1.196  0.076  0.143  0.000
DETROIT        7  9 346 444  0.135  9.331   16  0.915   16 -0.013   21 -0.198   13 0.5042  1.466  0.138 -0.535  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. GIANTS   14  6 458 416  0.296 11.988    3  1.602    2  0.634    6  0.420    4 0.6001  1.265  0.477  0.364  0.000
DALLAS        13  4 472 346  0.187  9.401    2  1.627    3  0.628    7  0.318    2 0.6070  1.451  0.633  0.003  0.000
WASHINGTON     9  8 348 345  0.234  9.996    9  1.196    9  0.205    9  0.223    8 0.5394  1.107  0.077  0.368  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 336 300  0.238  9.379   10  1.146   10  0.147    8  0.245   10 0.5317  1.054  0.035  0.455  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NFC EAST   44 26 0.629    1  0.438
AFC SOUTH  43 25 0.632    2  0.351
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.204
AFC EAST   30 37 0.448    4 -0.102
AFC NORTH  32 33 0.492    5 -0.104
AFC WEST   28 39 0.418    6 -0.157
NFC SOUTH  27 38 0.415    7 -0.383
NFC WEST   27 39 0.409    8 -0.566

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.206 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.022 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb 11 17:12:31 2008
games through: Sun Feb 10 2008

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