Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.003  7.845    1  1.382    1  0.611    6  0.292    1 0.6229  1.659  0.898 -0.315  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   15  3 581 372  0.041  8.628    2  1.334    2  0.564    2  0.468    2 0.6033  1.588  0.963 -0.026  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.056  8.709    3  1.237    3  0.471    3  0.347    3 0.5833  1.044  0.099  0.595  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.026  8.397    4  1.190    4  0.425    1  0.484    4 0.5807  1.661  1.094 -0.127  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.058  8.931    5  1.145    5  0.385    7  0.261    5 0.5665  1.178  0.178  0.344  0.000
NY GIANTS     12  7 475 439  0.241 10.924    6  1.117    6  0.362    4  0.337    7 0.5601  1.395  0.547  0.128  0.000
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.013  7.962    7  1.063    7  0.309    8  0.217    6 0.5609  0.950 -0.140  0.574  0.000
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.081  8.710    8  0.921    8  0.171   10  0.160    8 0.5451  1.559  0.610 -0.291  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.026  8.573    9  0.901    9  0.152   16  0.032    9 0.5223  1.213 -0.006  0.071  0.000
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.047  8.157   10  0.872   10  0.107    9  0.168   10 0.5183  1.152  0.052  0.284  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.105  8.402   11  0.798   11  0.042    5  0.296   17 0.5001  1.337  0.424  0.168  0.000
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.076  8.362   12  0.761   12  0.039   15  0.033   19 0.4966  1.230  0.017  0.049  0.000
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.030  8.349   13  0.751   13  0.028   20 -0.082   16 0.5027  1.308  0.006 -0.171  0.000
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.118  7.289   14  0.742   14  0.026   18 -0.047   18 0.4987  1.143 -0.174  0.079  0.000
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.069  8.300   15  0.735   15  0.022   14  0.053   15 0.5045  1.324  0.163 -0.057  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.039  7.996   16  0.705   17 -0.006   21 -0.120   20 0.4888  1.186 -0.193 -0.047  0.000
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.003  7.950   17  0.696   18 -0.017   17 -0.047   13 0.5084  1.100 -0.227  0.134  0.000
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.023  9.227   18  0.694   16 -0.006   29 -0.280   11 0.5165  1.196 -0.340 -0.220  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.061  7.525   19  0.679   20 -0.060   12  0.070   12 0.5087  1.431  0.331 -0.191  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.080  7.824   20  0.664   19 -0.038   25 -0.241   14 0.5055  1.475  0.083 -0.566  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.016  8.116   21  0.605   21 -0.094   13  0.064   22 0.4795  1.190 -0.003  0.131  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.112  7.817   22  0.554   22 -0.142   27 -0.260   21 0.4870  0.689 -0.890  0.370  0.000
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.061  8.295   23  0.544   24 -0.187   11  0.121   24 0.4642  1.043 -0.128  0.369  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.053  8.514   24  0.532   23 -0.163   22 -0.175   23 0.4679  1.475  0.150 -0.499  0.000
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.684   25  0.446   25 -0.249   19 -0.063   25 0.4508  1.515  0.321 -0.447  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.060  8.656   26  0.432   26 -0.251   23 -0.184   26 0.4352  1.095 -0.370  0.002  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.091  7.885   27  0.341   27 -0.340   26 -0.250   27 0.4261  0.881 -0.683  0.183  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.031  8.604   28  0.284   28 -0.380   32 -0.520   28 0.4224  1.337 -0.392 -0.648  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.073  8.024   29  0.218   29 -0.446   24 -0.236   29 0.4162  0.825 -0.728  0.256  0.000
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.065  8.062   30  0.121   30 -0.541   28 -0.268   30 0.4125  1.358 -0.111 -0.425  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.059  9.194   31  0.114   31 -0.545   31 -0.511   31 0.3963  0.902 -0.920 -0.101  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.143  8.030   32  0.000   32 -0.664   30 -0.409   32 0.3747  1.199 -0.465 -0.353  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.023  9.227   18  0.694   16 -0.006   29 -0.280   11 0.5165  1.196 -0.340 -0.220  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.061  7.525   19  0.679   20 -0.060   12  0.070   12 0.5087  1.431  0.331 -0.191  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.080  7.824   20  0.664   19 -0.038   25 -0.241   14 0.5055  1.475  0.083 -0.566  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.112  7.817   22  0.554   22 -0.142   27 -0.260   21 0.4870  0.689 -0.890  0.370  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.047  8.157   10  0.872   10  0.107    9  0.168   10 0.5183  1.152  0.052  0.284  0.000
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.118  7.289   14  0.742   14  0.026   18 -0.047   18 0.4987  1.143 -0.174  0.079  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.091  7.885   27  0.341   27 -0.340   26 -0.250   27 0.4261  0.881 -0.683  0.183  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.143  8.030   32  0.000   32 -0.664   30 -0.409   32 0.3747  1.199 -0.465 -0.353  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.058  8.931    5  1.145    5  0.385    7  0.261    5 0.5665  1.178  0.178  0.344  0.000
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.013  7.962    7  1.063    7  0.309    8  0.217    6 0.5609  0.950 -0.140  0.574  0.000
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.030  8.349   13  0.751   13  0.028   20 -0.082   16 0.5027  1.308  0.006 -0.171  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.073  8.024   29  0.218   29 -0.446   24 -0.236   29 0.4162  0.825 -0.728  0.256  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   15  3 581 372  0.041  8.628    2  1.334    2  0.564    2  0.468    2 0.6033  1.588  0.963 -0.026  0.000
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.069  8.300   15  0.735   15  0.022   14  0.053   15 0.5045  1.324  0.163 -0.057  0.000
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.061  8.295   23  0.544   24 -0.187   11  0.121   24 0.4642  1.043 -0.128  0.369  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.053  8.514   24  0.532   23 -0.163   22 -0.175   23 0.4679  1.475  0.150 -0.499  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.056  8.709    3  1.237    3  0.471    3  0.347    3 0.5833  1.044  0.099  0.595  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.039  7.996   16  0.705   17 -0.006   21 -0.120   20 0.4888  1.186 -0.193 -0.047  0.000
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.016  8.116   21  0.605   21 -0.094   13  0.064   22 0.4795  1.190 -0.003  0.131  0.000
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.059  9.194   31  0.114   31 -0.545   31 -0.511   31 0.3963  0.902 -0.920 -0.101  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.026  8.397    4  1.190    4  0.425    1  0.484    4 0.5807  1.661  1.094 -0.127  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.026  8.573    9  0.901    9  0.152   16  0.032    9 0.5223  1.213 -0.006  0.071  0.000
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.684   25  0.446   25 -0.249   19 -0.063   25 0.4508  1.515  0.321 -0.447  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.031  8.604   28  0.284   28 -0.380   32 -0.520   28 0.4224  1.337 -0.392 -0.648  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.003  7.845    1  1.382    1  0.611    6  0.292    1 0.6229  1.659  0.898 -0.315  0.000
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.081  8.710    8  0.921    8  0.171   10  0.160    8 0.5451  1.559  0.610 -0.291  0.000
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.003  7.950   17  0.696   18 -0.017   17 -0.047   13 0.5084  1.100 -0.227  0.134  0.000
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.065  8.062   30  0.121   30 -0.541   28 -0.268   30 0.4125  1.358 -0.111 -0.425  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY GIANTS     12  7 475 439  0.241 10.924    6  1.117    6  0.362    4  0.337    7 0.5601  1.395  0.547  0.128  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.105  8.402   11  0.798   11  0.042    5  0.296   17 0.5001  1.337  0.424  0.168  0.000
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.076  8.362   12  0.761   12  0.039   15  0.033   19 0.4966  1.230  0.017  0.049  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.060  8.656   26  0.432   26 -0.251   23 -0.184   26 0.4352  1.095 -0.370  0.002  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   35 31 0.530    1  0.220
NFC EAST   33 34 0.493    2  0.165
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.133
AFC NORTH  38 30 0.559    4  0.100
NFC SOUTH  34 33 0.507    5 -0.035
NFC WEST   31 35 0.470    6 -0.124
AFC SOUTH  27 39 0.409    7 -0.248
AFC WEST   32 34 0.485    8 -0.324

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.227 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Jan 30 05:30:12 2012
games through: Sun Jan 29 2012

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