Dolphin Ratings - National Football League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.007  7.870    1  1.416    1  0.612    6  0.277    1 0.6239  1.662  0.888 -0.335  0.000
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.042  9.195    2  1.297    2  0.498    2  0.407    2 0.5911  1.559  0.857 -0.044  0.000
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.062  8.758    3  1.272    3  0.474    4  0.332    3 0.5850  1.046  0.087  0.577  0.000
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.028  8.420    4  1.223    4  0.425    1  0.458    4 0.5814  1.663  1.072 -0.155  0.000
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.279 11.750    5  1.202    5  0.423    3  0.371    5 0.5710  1.364  0.536  0.206  0.000
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.053  8.914    6  1.159    6  0.381    7  0.242    6 0.5655  1.179  0.161  0.323  0.000
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.019  7.938    7  1.062    7  0.305    8  0.201    7 0.5598  0.951 -0.154  0.556  0.000
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.080  8.709    8  0.922    8  0.169   10  0.148    8 0.5449  1.558  0.597 -0.301  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.028  8.592    9  0.904    9  0.152   16  0.030    9 0.5230  1.214 -0.006  0.067  0.000
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.050  8.145   10  0.872   10  0.104    9  0.156   10 0.5177  1.151  0.039  0.272  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.107  8.425   11  0.802   11  0.043    5  0.277   17 0.5010  1.341  0.411  0.144  0.000
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.079  8.388   12  0.765   12  0.040   15  0.032   19 0.4975  1.233  0.021  0.043  0.000
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.033  8.341   13  0.751   13  0.025   20 -0.081   16 0.5023  1.307  0.007 -0.169  0.000
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.122  7.278   14  0.742   14  0.023   18 -0.048   18 0.4981  1.142 -0.176  0.079  0.000
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.061  8.270   15  0.733   15  0.017   14  0.045   15 0.5028  1.328  0.160 -0.070  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.036  8.026   16  0.710   16 -0.005   21 -0.114   20 0.4899  1.187 -0.185 -0.042  0.000
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.005  7.948   17  0.697   18 -0.019   17 -0.047   12 0.5082  1.099 -0.228  0.134  0.000
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.031  9.174   18  0.690   17 -0.013   29 -0.275   11 0.5141  1.199 -0.331 -0.219  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.069  7.489   19  0.677   20 -0.065   12  0.060   13 0.5067  1.432  0.322 -0.202  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.088  7.783   20  0.661   19 -0.044   25 -0.233   14 0.5036  1.475  0.092 -0.559  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.020  8.144   21  0.610   21 -0.092   13  0.060   22 0.4807  1.191 -0.005  0.126  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.120  7.779   22  0.551   22 -0.147   27 -0.252   21 0.4850  0.689 -0.881  0.377  0.000
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.054  8.263   23  0.542   24 -0.192   11  0.108   24 0.4625  1.047 -0.136  0.352  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.046  8.482   24  0.530   23 -0.168   22 -0.172   23 0.4662  1.479  0.159 -0.502  0.000
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.691   25  0.448   26 -0.250   19 -0.062   25 0.4510  1.514  0.321 -0.445  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.063  8.679   26  0.437   25 -0.249   23 -0.175   26 0.4360  1.100 -0.355  0.006  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.094  7.874   27  0.342   27 -0.343   26 -0.239   27 0.4255  0.881 -0.672  0.194  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.032  8.611   28  0.286   28 -0.381   32 -0.493   28 0.4226  1.336 -0.365 -0.620  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.075  8.016   29  0.219   29 -0.448   24 -0.226   29 0.4159  0.825 -0.718  0.267  0.000
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.067  8.060   30  0.122   30 -0.543   28 -0.255   30 0.4123  1.357 -0.099 -0.412  0.000
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.063  9.224   31  0.118   31 -0.544   31 -0.482   31 0.3976  0.903 -0.891 -0.073  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.147  8.012   32  0.000   32 -0.667   30 -0.390   32 0.3735  1.201 -0.443 -0.337  0.000

AFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DENVER         9  9 348 458 -0.031  9.174   18  0.690   17 -0.013   29 -0.275   11 0.5141  1.199 -0.331 -0.219  0.000
SAN DIEGO      8  8 406 377 -0.069  7.489   19  0.677   20 -0.065   12  0.060   13 0.5067  1.432  0.322 -0.202  0.000
OAKLAND        8  8 359 433 -0.088  7.783   20  0.661   19 -0.044   25 -0.233   14 0.5036  1.475  0.092 -0.559  0.000
KANSAS CITY    7  9 212 338 -0.120  7.779   22  0.551   22 -0.147   27 -0.252   21 0.4850  0.689 -0.881  0.377  0.000

AFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
HOUSTON       11  7 425 308 -0.050  8.145   10  0.872   10  0.104    9  0.156   10 0.5177  1.151  0.039  0.272  0.000
TENNESSEE      9  7 325 317 -0.122  7.278   14  0.742   14  0.023   18 -0.048   18 0.4981  1.142 -0.176  0.079  0.000
JACKSONVILLE   5 11 243 329 -0.094  7.874   27  0.342   27 -0.343   26 -0.239   27 0.4255  0.881 -0.672  0.194  0.000
INDIANAPOLIS   2 14 243 430 -0.147  8.012   32  0.000   32 -0.667   30 -0.390   32 0.3735  1.201 -0.443 -0.337  0.000

AFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BALTIMORE     13  5 418 302  0.053  8.914    6  1.159    6  0.381    7  0.242    6 0.5655  1.179  0.161  0.323  0.000
PITTSBURGH    12  5 348 256 -0.019  7.938    7  1.062    7  0.305    8  0.201    7 0.5598  0.951 -0.154  0.556  0.000
CINCINNATI     9  8 354 354 -0.033  8.341   13  0.751   13  0.025   20 -0.081   16 0.5023  1.307  0.007 -0.169  0.000
CLEVELAND      4 12 218 307 -0.075  8.016   29  0.219   29 -0.448   24 -0.226   29 0.4159  0.825 -0.718  0.267  0.000

AFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ENGLAND   15  4 598 393  0.042  9.195    2  1.297    2  0.498    2  0.407    2 0.5911  1.559  0.857 -0.044  0.000
NY JETS        8  8 377 363  0.061  8.270   15  0.733   15  0.017   14  0.045   15 0.5028  1.328  0.160 -0.070  0.000
MIAMI          6 10 329 313  0.054  8.263   23  0.542   24 -0.192   11  0.108   24 0.4625  1.047 -0.136  0.352  0.000
BUFFALO        6 10 372 434  0.046  8.482   24  0.530   23 -0.168   22 -0.172   23 0.4662  1.479  0.159 -0.502  0.000

NFC WEST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN FRANCISCO 14  4 433 281  0.062  8.758    3  1.272    3  0.474    4  0.332    3 0.5850  1.046  0.087  0.577  0.000
ARIZONA        8  8 312 348 -0.036  8.026   16  0.710   16 -0.005   21 -0.114   20 0.4899  1.187 -0.185 -0.042  0.000
SEATTLE        7  9 321 315  0.020  8.144   21  0.610   21 -0.092   13  0.060   22 0.4807  1.191 -0.005  0.126  0.000
ST. LOUIS      2 14 193 407  0.063  9.224   31  0.118   31 -0.544   31 -0.482   31 0.3976  0.903 -0.891 -0.073  0.000

NFC SOUTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW ORLEANS   14  4 624 403  0.028  8.420    4  1.223    4  0.425    1  0.458    4 0.5814  1.663  1.072 -0.155  0.000
ATLANTA       10  7 404 374  0.028  8.592    9  0.904    9  0.152   16  0.030    9 0.5230  1.214 -0.006  0.067  0.000
CAROLINA       6 10 406 429 -0.078  7.691   25  0.448   26 -0.250   19 -0.062   25 0.4510  1.514  0.321 -0.445  0.000
TAMPA BAY      4 12 287 494 -0.032  8.611   28  0.286   28 -0.381   32 -0.493   28 0.4226  1.336 -0.365 -0.620  0.000

NFC NORTH
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
GREEN BAY     15  2 580 396  0.007  7.870    1  1.416    1  0.612    6  0.277    1 0.6239  1.662  0.888 -0.335  0.000
DETROIT       10  7 502 432  0.080  8.709    8  0.922    8  0.169   10  0.148    8 0.5449  1.558  0.597 -0.301  0.000
CHICAGO        8  8 353 341 -0.005  7.948   17  0.697   18 -0.019   17 -0.047   12 0.5082  1.099 -0.228  0.134  0.000
MINNESOTA      3 13 340 449 -0.067  8.060   30  0.122   30 -0.543   28 -0.255   30 0.4123  1.357 -0.099 -0.412  0.000

NFC EAST
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NY GIANTS     13  7 496 456  0.279 11.750    5  1.202    5  0.423    3  0.371    5 0.5710  1.364  0.536  0.206  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   8  8 396 328  0.107  8.425   11  0.802   11  0.043    5  0.277   17 0.5010  1.341  0.411  0.144  0.000
DALLAS         8  8 369 347  0.079  8.388   12  0.765   12  0.040   15  0.032   19 0.4975  1.233  0.021  0.043  0.000
WASHINGTON     5 11 288 367  0.063  8.679   26  0.437   25 -0.249   23 -0.175   26 0.4360  1.100 -0.355  0.006  0.000

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
AFC EAST   35 32 0.522    1  0.202
NFC EAST   34 34 0.500    2  0.178
NFC NORTH  36 30 0.545    3  0.132
AFC NORTH  38 30 0.559    4  0.096
NFC SOUTH  34 33 0.507    5 -0.034
NFC WEST   31 35 0.470    6 -0.120
AFC SOUTH  27 39 0.409    7 -0.252
AFC WEST   32 34 0.485    8 -0.333

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.225 points in main ratings (0.109 for semineutral)
     0.023 points in improved RPI (0.015 for semineutral)
Average of 6.20 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Feb  6 05:30:09 2012
games through: Sun Feb  5 2012

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