Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             31  2 2460 1984 -0.591    1  0.767    1  0.595    1  0.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.634    9 -0.263    1  0.617
St Francis Xavier       23  6 2191 1947 -0.524    2  0.264    2  0.132    2 -0.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 16.926    4 -0.013    4 -0.035
UNB                     20 10 2270 2112 -0.495    3 -0.086    3 -0.168    3 -0.195    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 15.973    5 -0.019   11 -0.372
Calgary                 22  9 2470 2296 -0.657    4 -0.137    4 -0.224    6 -0.306    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 15.756    3  0.013   16 -0.624
McMaster                20  7 2070 1800 -0.754    5 -0.166    5 -0.258    4 -0.218    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 15.775    8 -0.179    6 -0.257
UBC                     20 12 2562 2395 -0.485    6 -0.169    6 -0.261    5 -0.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 15.696    2  0.048   14 -0.586
Laval                   19  4 1802 1506 -1.112    7 -0.237    7 -0.330   12 -0.448    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.486   19 -0.668    5 -0.228
Simon Fraser            16 13 2432 2406 -0.361    8 -0.237    8 -0.331    8 -0.376    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.391    1  0.497   28 -1.249
UPEI                    13  9 1572 1503 -0.479    9 -0.270    9 -0.365   10 -0.417    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.113   15 -0.539    9 -0.295
Victoria                13 10 1788 1742 -0.514   10 -0.364   10 -0.440   17 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.794   10 -0.302   22 -0.832
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
UCCB                    15 10 1807 1658 -0.587   11 -0.365   11 -0.441    7 -0.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.954   20 -0.668    3  0.031
Trinity Western         15 13 2120 2084 -0.461   12 -0.377   12 -0.452   11 -0.422    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.743   12 -0.349   13 -0.494
Alberta                 17 10 2152 2040 -0.735   13 -0.396   13 -0.472   18 -0.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.647   11 -0.332   23 -0.848
Concordia QC            15  5 1640 1431 -1.050   14 -0.422   14 -0.506   16 -0.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 14.674    6 -0.112   24 -0.991
Brock                   20 11 2295 2166 -0.852   15 -0.442   15 -0.527   15 -0.550    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.478   13 -0.424   18 -0.676
St Mary's NS            13 10 1611 1567 -0.585   16 -0.448   16 -0.533   14 -0.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.463   22 -0.718   10 -0.312
Guelph                  17  9 1888 1719 -0.801   17 -0.451   17 -0.537   13 -0.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.531   21 -0.703    7 -0.267
York ON                 18 13 2324 2146 -0.828   18 -0.638   18 -0.720    9 -0.388    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.056    7 -0.151   15 -0.624
Waterloo                16 10 1811 1758 -1.054   19 -0.680   19 -0.764   19 -0.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.586   27 -1.095   19 -0.763
Brandon                 15 13 2185 2230 -0.973   20 -0.773   20 -0.852   22 -1.052    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.165   17 -0.581   31 -1.524
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RMC                     14 12 1518 1587 -1.057   21 -0.804   21 -0.878   27 -1.142    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.079   40 -2.368    2  0.083
Ottawa ON               15 12 1777 1741 -1.094   22 -0.867   22 -0.937   20 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.894   32 -1.484   12 -0.484
Windsor                 11 12 1636 1668 -1.021   23 -0.991   23 -1.036   23 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.419   26 -0.988   27 -1.148
Saskatchewan             8 17 1898 2062 -0.703   24 -1.065   24 -1.115   24 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 11.900   18 -0.586   33 -1.642
Laurier                 13 16 1825 1882 -1.024   25 -1.069   25 -1.118   25 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 11.922   37 -1.936    8 -0.291
Queen's ON              11 14 1613 1665 -1.105   26 -1.120   26 -1.172   30 -1.286    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 11.675   35 -1.790   20 -0.782
Acadia                   9 17 1773 1811 -0.831   27 -1.184   27 -1.251   21 -0.992    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 11.559   29 -1.353   17 -0.630
Lethbridge U             8 20 2084 2271 -0.820   28 -1.253   28 -1.320   28 -1.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.043   23 -0.864   30 -1.502
Memorial                 6 18 1627 1927 -0.811   29 -1.281   29 -1.350   37 -1.644    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 10.595   28 -1.334   38 -1.954
Manitoba                10 15 1805 1870 -1.163   30 -1.281   30 -1.351   32 -1.350    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 10.952   30 -1.387   29 -1.313
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Dalhousie                7 18 1648 1803 -0.857   31 -1.313   31 -1.389   29 -1.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 10.771   31 -1.459   25 -1.006
Regina                  10 21 2406 2540 -0.974   32 -1.336   32 -1.416   26 -1.136    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 10.496   14 -0.521   36 -1.750
Bishop's                 7 14 1381 1500 -1.144   33 -1.361   33 -1.444   34 -1.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.387   38 -2.082   21 -0.810
Laurentian               6 16 1473 1618 -1.239   34 -1.562   34 -1.680   35 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  9.716   33 -1.521   34 -1.658
Toronto                  7 20 1728 1995 -1.229   35 -1.571   35 -1.689   39 -1.736    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  9.597   36 -1.858   32 -1.614
McGill                   4 16 1528 1756 -1.062   36 -1.576   36 -1.696   36 -1.606    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  9.663   16 -0.571   41 -2.642
Winnipeg                 5 19 1513 1800 -1.084   37 -1.586   37 -1.707   38 -1.715    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  9.479   39 -2.315   26 -1.114
Western ON               5 19 1705 1836 -1.052   38 -1.651   39 -1.773   31 -1.333    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  9.620   24 -0.948   35 -1.719
Lakehead                 5 20 1651 1959 -1.166   39 -1.675   38 -1.745   40 -1.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  9.281   34 -1.651   40 -2.022
UQAM                     4 15 1395 1543 -1.312   40 -1.811   40 -1.892   33 -1.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.924   25 -0.951   37 -1.846
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ryerson                  1 24 1459 1891 -1.337   41 -2.324   41 -2.446   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.349   41 -2.746   39 -1.956


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.601 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Francis Xavier       23  6 2191 1947 -0.524    2  0.264    2  0.132    2 -0.024    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 16.926    4 -0.013    4 -0.035
UNB                     20 10 2270 2112 -0.495    3 -0.086    3 -0.168    3 -0.195    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 15.973    5 -0.019   11 -0.372
UPEI                    13  9 1572 1503 -0.479    9 -0.270    9 -0.365   10 -0.417    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9 15.113   15 -0.539    9 -0.295
UCCB                    15 10 1807 1658 -0.587   11 -0.365   11 -0.441    7 -0.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10 14.954   20 -0.668    3  0.031
St Mary's NS            13 10 1611 1567 -0.585   16 -0.448   16 -0.533   14 -0.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17 14.463   22 -0.718   10 -0.312
Acadia                   9 17 1773 1811 -0.831   27 -1.184   27 -1.251   21 -0.992    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27 11.559   29 -1.353   17 -0.630
Memorial                 6 18 1627 1927 -0.811   29 -1.281   29 -1.350   37 -1.644    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31 10.595   28 -1.334   38 -1.954
Dalhousie                7 18 1648 1803 -0.857   31 -1.313   31 -1.389   29 -1.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30 10.771   31 -1.459   25 -1.006

Canada West: strength=-0.805 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Calgary                 22  9 2470 2296 -0.657    4 -0.137    4 -0.224    6 -0.306    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5 15.756    3  0.013   16 -0.624
UBC                     20 12 2562 2395 -0.485    6 -0.169    6 -0.261    5 -0.269    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6 15.696    2  0.048   14 -0.586
Simon Fraser            16 13 2432 2406 -0.361    8 -0.237    8 -0.331    8 -0.376    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8 15.391    1  0.497   28 -1.249
Victoria                13 10 1788 1742 -0.514   10 -0.364   10 -0.440   17 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11 14.794   10 -0.302   22 -0.832
Trinity Western         15 13 2120 2084 -0.461   12 -0.377   12 -0.452   11 -0.422    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12 14.743   12 -0.349   13 -0.494
Alberta                 17 10 2152 2040 -0.735   13 -0.396   13 -0.472   18 -0.590    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14 14.647   11 -0.332   23 -0.848
Brandon                 15 13 2185 2230 -0.973   20 -0.773   20 -0.852   22 -1.052    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20 13.165   17 -0.581   31 -1.524
Saskatchewan             8 17 1898 2062 -0.703   24 -1.065   24 -1.115   24 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25 11.900   18 -0.586   33 -1.642
Lethbridge U             8 20 2084 2271 -0.820   28 -1.253   28 -1.320   28 -1.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28 11.043   23 -0.864   30 -1.502
Manitoba                10 15 1805 1870 -1.163   30 -1.281   30 -1.351   32 -1.350    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29 10.952   30 -1.387   29 -1.313
Regina                  10 21 2406 2540 -0.974   32 -1.336   32 -1.416   26 -1.136    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32 10.496   14 -0.521   36 -1.750
Winnipeg                 5 19 1513 1800 -1.084   37 -1.586   37 -1.707   38 -1.715    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  9.479   39 -2.315   26 -1.114

CIS-Ontario: strength=-1.092 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Carleton ON             31  2 2460 1984 -0.591    1  0.767    1  0.595    1  0.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.634    9 -0.263    1  0.617
McMaster                20  7 2070 1800 -0.754    5 -0.166    5 -0.258    4 -0.218    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 15.775    8 -0.179    6 -0.257
Brock                   20 11 2295 2166 -0.852   15 -0.442   15 -0.527   15 -0.550    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16 14.478   13 -0.424   18 -0.676
Guelph                  17  9 1888 1719 -0.801   17 -0.451   17 -0.537   13 -0.485    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15 14.531   21 -0.703    7 -0.267
York ON                 18 13 2324 2146 -0.828   18 -0.638   18 -0.720    9 -0.388    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18 14.056    7 -0.151   15 -0.624
Waterloo                16 10 1811 1758 -1.054   19 -0.680   19 -0.764   19 -0.929    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19 13.586   27 -1.095   19 -0.763
RMC                     14 12 1518 1587 -1.057   21 -0.804   21 -0.878   27 -1.142    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21 13.079   40 -2.368    2  0.083
Ottawa ON               15 12 1777 1741 -1.094   22 -0.867   22 -0.937   20 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22 12.894   32 -1.484   12 -0.484
Windsor                 11 12 1636 1668 -1.021   23 -0.991   23 -1.036   23 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23 12.419   26 -0.988   27 -1.148
Laurier                 13 16 1825 1882 -1.024   25 -1.069   25 -1.118   25 -1.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24 11.922   37 -1.936    8 -0.291
Queen's ON              11 14 1613 1665 -1.105   26 -1.120   26 -1.172   30 -1.286    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26 11.675   35 -1.790   20 -0.782
Laurentian               6 16 1473 1618 -1.239   34 -1.562   34 -1.680   35 -1.589    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  9.716   33 -1.521   34 -1.658
Toronto                  7 20 1728 1995 -1.229   35 -1.571   35 -1.689   39 -1.736    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  9.597   36 -1.858   32 -1.614
Western ON               5 19 1705 1836 -1.052   38 -1.651   39 -1.773   31 -1.333    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  9.620   24 -0.948   35 -1.719
Lakehead                 5 20 1651 1959 -1.166   39 -1.675   38 -1.745   40 -1.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  9.281   34 -1.651   40 -2.022
Ryerson                  1 24 1459 1891 -1.337   41 -2.324   41 -2.446   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  7.349   41 -2.746   39 -1.956

CIS-Quebec: strength=-1.162 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Laval                   19  4 1802 1506 -1.112    7 -0.237    7 -0.330   12 -0.448    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7 15.486   19 -0.668    5 -0.228
Concordia QC            15  5 1640 1431 -1.050   14 -0.422   14 -0.506   16 -0.551    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13 14.674    6 -0.112   24 -0.991
Bishop's                 7 14 1381 1500 -1.144   33 -1.361   33 -1.444   34 -1.446    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33 10.387   38 -2.082   21 -0.810
McGill                   4 16 1528 1756 -1.062   36 -1.576   36 -1.696   36 -1.606    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  9.663   16 -0.571   41 -2.642
UQAM                     4 15 1395 1543 -1.312   40 -1.811   40 -1.892   33 -1.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  8.924   25 -0.951   37 -1.846

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                 W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CIS-Atlantic             106  98 0.520    1 -0.601
Canada West              159 172 0.480    2 -0.805
CIS-Ontario              210 217 0.492    3 -1.092
CIS-Quebec                49  54 0.476    4 -1.162

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.333 points in main ratings
     0.033 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:29 2019

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