Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Utah Valley St          18  7 1783 1470  0.152    1  0.662    1  0.496    1  0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.445    2 -0.446    1  1.584
Miami-Middletown         3  1  307  312 -1.148    2 -0.629    2 -0.715    4 -2.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.445    8 -1.676    5 -2.380
Oakwood                  7 14 1690 1934 -0.614    3 -1.044    3 -1.091    2 -1.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.908    1  0.022    4 -2.328
Crossroads              16  4 1699 1464 -2.437    4 -1.407    4 -1.504    3 -1.833    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.074    3 -1.226    6 -2.439
Cincinnati-Clermont      2  3  371  419 -1.361    5 -1.800    5 -1.877    5 -2.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.839    7 -1.656    7 -2.680
West Coast Baptist      10  9 1376 1414 -2.140    6 -1.984    6 -2.095    6 -2.225    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  8.220   11 -2.156    3 -2.294
Mount Aloysius           4 19 1742 2009 -1.772    7 -2.693    7 -2.854    8 -2.472    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.155    6 -1.494   15 -3.450
Union NE                 5  6  908  919 -2.623    8 -2.699    8 -2.865   14 -2.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.064    9 -1.887   23 -3.806
Hesston                  3  3  445  426 -2.757    9 -2.712    9 -2.886   10 -2.664    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.063   18 -2.525    8 -2.803
East-West                1 22 1670 2300 -0.877   10 -2.772   10 -2.973    7 -2.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.009    4 -1.264   20 -3.590
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Green Mountain           2 14 1151 1570 -1.614   11 -2.779   11 -2.988   16 -2.914    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.954   12 -2.234   21 -3.594
Concordia-St Louis       2 10  920 1093 -2.235   12 -2.926   12 -3.191   19 -2.988    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.331   10 -2.128   24 -3.848
SUNY-Purchase            5 14 1287 1419 -2.444   13 -2.958   13 -3.245   15 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.405   21 -2.635   10 -3.100
Wesley MS                7 23 2236 2725 -2.487   14 -2.969   14 -3.262   24 -3.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.156   13 -2.236   29 -4.119
Ohio St-Lima             1  5  466  619 -2.353   15 -3.117   15 -3.499   26 -3.372    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.819   20 -2.568   31 -4.176
IU East                  3 13 1154 1564 -2.739   16 -3.123   16 -3.508   28 -3.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  4.553   24 -2.925   37 -4.861
Penn St-New Kensington   0  5  256  418  0.113   17 -3.183   17 -3.568    9 -2.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.087   27 -3.142    2 -1.825
Wright St-Lake           1  7  584  715 -1.999   18 -3.190   18 -3.583   17 -2.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.849   15 -2.441   14 -3.426
Penn St-Beaver           0  5  324  497 -0.107   19 -3.205   19 -3.619   18 -2.983    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.839   16 -2.471   17 -3.494
Miami-Hamilton           0  4  230  364 -0.104   20 -3.208   20 -3.638   21 -3.017    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.828   23 -2.840   12 -3.194
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Word of Life Bible       1  1  151  158 -3.718   21 -3.216   21 -3.684   27 -3.622    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.418   28 -3.549   22 -3.696
Ohio U-Southern          1  6  569  618 -2.327   22 -3.352   22 -3.798   13 -2.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.455   14 -2.327   13 -3.320
Sanford-Brown            5  9  927 1135 -3.632   23 -3.355   23 -3.819   29 -4.047    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  4.039   30 -4.120   27 -3.974
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  3  185  271 -0.910   24 -3.359   24 -3.824   25 -3.204    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.377   25 -2.949   16 -3.460
Ohio St-Marion           0 11  662 1068 -0.982   25 -3.365   25 -3.840   20 -3.009    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.397   17 -2.519   18 -3.499
Ohio U-Eastern           0  4  333  438 -1.070   26 -3.367   26 -3.849   12 -2.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  4.488    5 -1.316   32 -4.204
Penn St-Fayette          0  4  205  397  1.881   27 -3.433   27 -3.938   30 -4.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.434   32 -4.278   26 -3.962
Penn St-McKeesport       0  7  446  608 -1.378   28 -3.555   28 -4.021   11 -2.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.198   19 -2.564    9 -2.921
Ohio St-Newark           1  5  463  561 -2.577   29 -3.609   29 -4.115   23 -3.176    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.899   22 -2.838   19 -3.515
Eugene Bible             1  6  415  655 -3.239   30 -3.614   30 -4.122   36 -4.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.929   35 -4.617   38 -4.952
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  4  201  489  0.527   31 -3.625   32 -4.155   41 -5.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.749   36 -4.805   45 -5.687
Penn St-Berks            0  4  241  331 -1.700   32 -3.629   31 -4.135   22 -3.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.624   26 -3.085   11 -3.113
OK Bapt Coll & Inst      4  6  773  919 -4.212   33 -3.649   33 -4.208   34 -4.697    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.950   29 -3.993   43 -5.402
Penn St-Delaware Co      0  2   93  145 -2.672   34 -3.698   34 -4.349   32 -4.521    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  2.757   38 -5.106   25 -3.936
St Cloud Tech            3  3  418  456 -4.501   35 -3.715   35 -4.393   33 -4.668    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.709   34 -4.604   36 -4.731
Puget Sound Chr          0  4  163  374  0.201   36 -3.728   36 -4.435   45 -5.622    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.282   45 -6.518   35 -4.726
Andrews                  0 11  509 1065  0.724   37 -3.837   37 -4.654   38 -5.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  2.085   44 -5.975   30 -4.135
Alexandria Tech          2  4  417  434 -4.351   38 -3.862   38 -4.706   31 -4.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.326   33 -4.494   28 -4.102
Webb Institute           0  1   47   90 -4.625   39 -3.868   39 -4.726   42 -5.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  2.031   41 -5.588   39 -4.994
California Christian     0  4  280  388 -3.254   40 -3.975   40 -4.958   35 -4.743    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  2.000   31 -4.135   42 -5.352
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Sarah Lawrence           0  2   99  160 -4.387   41 -4.103   41 -5.219   43 -5.486    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  1.245   43 -5.903   40 -5.069
Hampshire                1  7  398  654 -4.675   42 -4.155   42 -5.344   46 -6.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.065   47 -7.492   46 -6.042
Roanoke Bible            1  9  583  780 -4.475   43 -4.264   43 -5.571   39 -5.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  0.997   42 -5.721   34 -4.684
Albany Pharmacy          1  7  508  604 -4.650   44 -4.308   44 -5.670   40 -5.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  0.989   39 -5.379   41 -5.090
Shawnee Baptist          0  7  443  579 -3.885   45 -4.321   45 -5.700   37 -4.798    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  0.986   37 -4.940   33 -4.656
Boston Baptist           1  7  495  627 -4.967   46 -4.425   46 -5.950   44 -5.506    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  0.682   40 -5.531   44 -5.481
KC Coll & Bible Sch      1  7  440  678 -5.336   47 -4.569   47 -6.110   47 -6.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.000   46 -7.256   47 -6.518


Commonwealth CAC: strength=-3.226 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Penn St-New Kensington   0  5  256  418  0.113   17 -3.183   17 -3.568    9 -2.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  5.087   27 -3.142    2 -1.825
Penn St-Beaver           0  5  324  497 -0.107   19 -3.205   19 -3.619   18 -2.983    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  4.839   16 -2.471   17 -3.494
Penn St-Fayette          0  4  205  397  1.881   27 -3.433   27 -3.938   30 -4.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   30  3.434   32 -4.278   26 -3.962
Penn St-McKeesport       0  7  446  608 -1.378   28 -3.555   28 -4.021   11 -2.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   26  4.198   19 -2.564    9 -2.921
Penn St-Berks            0  4  241  331 -1.700   32 -3.629   31 -4.135   22 -3.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   29  3.624   26 -3.085   11 -3.113
Penn St-Delaware Co      0  2   93  145 -2.672   34 -3.698   34 -4.349   32 -4.521    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   33  2.757   38 -5.106   25 -3.936

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-2.785 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Miami-Middletown         3  1  307  312 -1.148    2 -0.629    2 -0.715    4 -2.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2 13.445    8 -1.676    5 -2.380
Cincinnati-Clermont      2  3  371  419 -1.361    5 -1.800    5 -1.877    5 -2.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  8.839    7 -1.656    7 -2.680
Ohio St-Lima             1  5  466  619 -2.353   15 -3.117   15 -3.499   26 -3.372    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  4.819   20 -2.568   31 -4.176
Wright St-Lake           1  7  584  715 -1.999   18 -3.190   18 -3.583   17 -2.933    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  4.849   15 -2.441   14 -3.426
Miami-Hamilton           0  4  230  364 -0.104   20 -3.208   20 -3.638   21 -3.017    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  4.828   23 -2.840   12 -3.194
Ohio U-Southern          1  6  569  618 -2.327   22 -3.352   22 -3.798   13 -2.823    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  4.455   14 -2.327   13 -3.320
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  3  185  271 -0.910   24 -3.359   24 -3.824   25 -3.204    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   25  4.377   25 -2.949   16 -3.460
Ohio St-Marion           0 11  662 1068 -0.982   25 -3.365   25 -3.840   20 -3.009    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   24  4.397   17 -2.519   18 -3.499
Ohio U-Eastern           0  4  333  438 -1.070   26 -3.367   26 -3.849   12 -2.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  4.488    5 -1.316   32 -4.204
Ohio St-Newark           1  5  463  561 -2.577   29 -3.609   29 -4.115   23 -3.176    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   28  3.899   22 -2.838   19 -3.515
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  4  201  489  0.527   31 -3.625   32 -4.155   41 -5.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   34  2.749   36 -4.805   45 -5.687

NIAC: strength=-4.798 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
St Cloud Tech            3  3  418  456 -4.501   35 -3.715   35 -4.393   33 -4.668    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   35  2.709   34 -4.604   36 -4.731
Alexandria Tech          2  4  417  434 -4.351   38 -3.862   38 -4.706   31 -4.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   36  2.326   33 -4.494   28 -4.102
AFLBC                    4 12 1158 1311 -4.300      -3.976      -4.963      -4.948      0.0000      0.0000       2.015      -4.600      -5.296

Independents: strength=-4.089 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Utah Valley St          18  7 1783 1470  0.152    1  0.662    1  0.496    1  0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 18.445    2 -0.446    1  1.584
Oakwood                  7 14 1690 1934 -0.614    3 -1.044    3 -1.091    2 -1.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3 11.908    1  0.022    4 -2.328
Crossroads              16  4 1699 1464 -2.437    4 -1.407    4 -1.504    3 -1.833    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4 10.074    3 -1.226    6 -2.439
West Coast Baptist      10  9 1376 1414 -2.140    6 -1.984    6 -2.095    6 -2.225    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  8.220   11 -2.156    3 -2.294
Mount Aloysius           4 19 1742 2009 -1.772    7 -2.693    7 -2.854    8 -2.472    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.155    6 -1.494   15 -3.450
Union NE                 5  6  908  919 -2.623    8 -2.699    8 -2.865   14 -2.846    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.064    9 -1.887   23 -3.806
Hesston                  3  3  445  426 -2.757    9 -2.712    9 -2.886   10 -2.664    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  6.063   18 -2.525    8 -2.803
East-West                1 22 1670 2300 -0.877   10 -2.772   10 -2.973    7 -2.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  6.009    4 -1.264   20 -3.590
Green Mountain           2 14 1151 1570 -1.614   11 -2.779   11 -2.988   16 -2.914    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  5.954   12 -2.234   21 -3.594
Concordia-St Louis       2 10  920 1093 -2.235   12 -2.926   12 -3.191   19 -2.988    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  5.331   10 -2.128   24 -3.848
SUNY-Purchase            5 14 1287 1419 -2.444   13 -2.958   13 -3.245   15 -2.868    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  5.405   21 -2.635   10 -3.100
Wesley MS                7 23 2236 2725 -2.487   14 -2.969   14 -3.262   24 -3.177    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  5.156   13 -2.236   29 -4.119
IU East                  3 13 1154 1564 -2.739   16 -3.123   16 -3.508   28 -3.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  4.553   24 -2.925   37 -4.861
Word of Life Bible       1  1  151  158 -3.718   21 -3.216   21 -3.684   27 -3.622    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   23  4.418   28 -3.549   22 -3.696
Sanford-Brown            5  9  927 1135 -3.632   23 -3.355   23 -3.819   29 -4.047    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   27  4.039   30 -4.120   27 -3.974
Eugene Bible             1  6  415  655 -3.239   30 -3.614   30 -4.122   36 -4.785    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   32  2.929   35 -4.617   38 -4.952
OK Bapt Coll & Inst      4  6  773  919 -4.212   33 -3.649   33 -4.208   34 -4.697    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   31  2.950   29 -3.993   43 -5.402
Puget Sound Chr          0  4  163  374  0.201   36 -3.728   36 -4.435   45 -5.622    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   37  2.282   45 -6.518   35 -4.726
Andrews                  0 11  509 1065  0.724   37 -3.837   37 -4.654   38 -5.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   38  2.085   44 -5.975   30 -4.135
Webb Institute           0  1   47   90 -4.625   39 -3.868   39 -4.726   42 -5.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   39  2.031   41 -5.588   39 -4.994
California Christian     0  4  280  388 -3.254   40 -3.975   40 -4.958   35 -4.743    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   40  2.000   31 -4.135   42 -5.352
Sarah Lawrence           0  2   99  160 -4.387   41 -4.103   41 -5.219   43 -5.486    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   41  1.245   43 -5.903   40 -5.069
Hampshire                1  7  398  654 -4.675   42 -4.155   42 -5.344   46 -6.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   42  1.065   47 -7.492   46 -6.042
Roanoke Bible            1  9  583  780 -4.475   43 -4.264   43 -5.571   39 -5.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   43  0.997   42 -5.721   34 -4.684
Albany Pharmacy          1  7  508  604 -4.650   44 -4.308   44 -5.670   40 -5.235    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   44  0.989   39 -5.379   41 -5.090
Shawnee Baptist          0  7  443  579 -3.885   45 -4.321   45 -5.700   37 -4.798    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   45  0.986   37 -4.940   33 -4.656
Boston Baptist           1  7  495  627 -4.967   46 -4.425   46 -5.950   44 -5.506    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   46  0.682   40 -5.531   44 -5.481
KC Coll & Bible Sch      1  7  440  678 -5.336   47 -4.569   47 -6.110   47 -6.887    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   47  0.000   46 -7.256   47 -6.518

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                 W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio Regional Campus       9  53 0.145    1 -2.785
Commonwealth CAC           0  27 0.000    2 -3.226
Independents              99 246 0.287    3 -4.089
NIAC                       9  19 0.321    4 -4.798

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.333 points in main ratings
     0.033 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:22:29 2019

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