Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudo-Poll. A blended ranking based on win-loss and predictive ratings, calibrated to match real-life polls as closely as possible. This gives a rough but unbiased estimate of how typical voters value record vs. impressive wins.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Taylor-Fort Wayne       23  3 2340 1969 -1.964    1 -0.558    1 -0.703    1 -1.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.359    1 -0.309    2 -2.354
Cincinnati-Clermont     22 12 2740 2496 -2.072    2 -1.814    2 -1.805    2 -1.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    2  9.772    2 -1.442    1 -1.976
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    16 10 1955 1948 -3.143    3 -2.538    3 -2.663    7 -3.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.059    6 -2.821   10 -3.640
New Hampshire Tech      21  6 2294 1854 -3.532    4 -2.608    4 -2.785    5 -2.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.855    4 -2.546    5 -3.304
Williamson Trade         9  9 1258 1240 -2.842    5 -2.697    5 -2.912    4 -2.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.597    8 -3.304    3 -2.520
Vermont Tech            18 10 2116 2011 -3.436    6 -2.740    6 -2.974    8 -3.319    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.365    9 -3.314    6 -3.323
Hesser                  17  9 2204 1913 -3.449    7 -2.816    7 -3.095    6 -3.200    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.227    5 -2.575   12 -3.825
Marion Military          3  3  454  425 -2.768    8 -2.838    8 -3.130    3 -2.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.246    3 -2.424    4 -2.891
Andrews                  3 23 1481 2231 -2.279    9 -3.184    9 -3.425   12 -3.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.055   13 -4.386    9 -3.601
Central Maine CC        15  9 1848 1588 -3.835   10 -3.278   10 -3.572   10 -3.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.030   10 -3.569    7 -3.371
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Paul Smith's             4 11 1077 1209 -2.871   11 -3.327   11 -3.648    9 -3.404    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.941    7 -3.124   11 -3.683
Ohio St-Marion           1  9  561  863 -3.033   12 -3.752   12 -4.261   13 -4.192    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.335   14 -4.497   13 -3.886
Southern Maine CC       10 10 1464 1319 -4.071   13 -3.841   13 -4.326   11 -3.808    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.705   12 -4.158    8 -3.458
Warren Wilson            1 16  942 1404 -3.079   14 -4.039   14 -4.689   15 -4.630    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  2.680   16 -5.093   14 -4.168
The King's College       3  5  454  631 -5.315   15 -4.180   15 -5.000   20 -6.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  2.090   20 -6.393   20 -6.066
Golden St Baptist        0 19 1237 1720 -2.575   16 -4.202   16 -5.041   14 -4.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  2.392   11 -4.021   15 -4.385
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     1  5  416  523 -4.230   17 -4.206   17 -5.068   16 -4.779    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.129   15 -4.582   17 -4.976
Eastern Maine CC         6 13 1340 1488 -5.111   18 -4.388   18 -5.678   18 -5.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  1.562   17 -5.274   18 -5.755
Northern Maine CC        4 12  976 1275 -5.559   19 -4.473   19 -5.975   21 -6.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.162   21 -6.584   19 -5.888
Christendom              5 13 1147 1309 -5.336   20 -4.576   20 -6.167   17 -5.233    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   20  1.064   19 -5.516   16 -4.949
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Maine-Augusta            2 19 1374 1908 -5.195   21 -4.935   22 -6.580   19 -5.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  0.351   18 -5.338   21 -6.369
Unity                    2 18 1093 1790 -5.558   22 -4.997   21 -6.408   22 -7.118    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.000   22 -7.289   22 -6.947


USCAA-II: strength=-3.838 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
Taylor-Fort Wayne       23  3 2340 1969 -1.964    1 -0.558    1 -0.703    1 -1.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1 13.359    1 -0.309    2 -2.354
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    16 10 1955 1948 -3.143    3 -2.538    3 -2.663    7 -3.231    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    3  7.059    6 -2.821   10 -3.640
Williamson Trade         9  9 1258 1240 -2.842    5 -2.697    5 -2.912    4 -2.912    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    5  6.597    8 -3.304    3 -2.520
Marion Military          3  3  454  425 -2.768    8 -2.838    8 -3.130    3 -2.658    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    7  6.246    3 -2.424    4 -2.891
Andrews                  3 23 1481 2231 -2.279    9 -3.184    9 -3.425   12 -3.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    9  5.055   13 -4.386    9 -3.601
Paul Smith's             4 11 1077 1209 -2.871   11 -3.327   11 -3.648    9 -3.404    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   11  4.941    7 -3.124   11 -3.683
Ohio St-Marion           1  9  561  863 -3.033   12 -3.752   12 -4.261   13 -4.192    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   13  3.335   14 -4.497   13 -3.886
Warren Wilson            1 16  942 1404 -3.079   14 -4.039   14 -4.689   15 -4.630    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   14  2.680   16 -5.093   14 -4.168
The King's College       3  5  454  631 -5.315   15 -4.180   15 -5.000   20 -6.229    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   17  2.090   20 -6.393   20 -6.066
Golden St Baptist        0 19 1237 1720 -2.575   16 -4.202   16 -5.041   14 -4.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   15  2.392   11 -4.021   15 -4.385
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     1  5  416  523 -4.230   17 -4.206   17 -5.068   16 -4.779    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   16  2.129   15 -4.582   17 -4.976

USCAA-II-Yankee: strength=-4.437 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL       OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
New Hampshire Tech      21  6 2294 1854 -3.532    4 -2.608    4 -2.785    5 -2.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    4  6.855    4 -2.546    5 -3.304
Vermont Tech            18 10 2116 2011 -3.436    6 -2.740    6 -2.974    8 -3.319    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    6  6.365    9 -3.314    6 -3.323
Hesser                  17  9 2204 1913 -3.449    7 -2.816    7 -3.095    6 -3.200    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    8  6.227    5 -2.575   12 -3.825
Central Maine CC        15  9 1848 1588 -3.835   10 -3.278   10 -3.572   10 -3.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   10  5.030   10 -3.569    7 -3.371
Southern Maine CC       10 10 1464 1319 -4.071   13 -3.841   13 -4.326   11 -3.808    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   12  3.705   12 -4.158    8 -3.458
Eastern Maine CC         6 13 1340 1488 -5.111   18 -4.388   18 -5.678   18 -5.514    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   18  1.562   17 -5.274   18 -5.755
Northern Maine CC        4 12  976 1275 -5.559   19 -4.473   19 -5.975   21 -6.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   19  1.162   21 -6.584   19 -5.888
Maine-Augusta            2 19 1374 1908 -5.195   21 -4.935   22 -6.580   19 -5.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   21  0.351   18 -5.338   21 -6.369
Unity                    2 18 1093 1790 -5.558   22 -4.997   21 -6.408   22 -7.118    1 0.0000    1 0.0000   22  0.000   22 -7.289   22 -6.947

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-II                 64 113 0.362    1 -3.838
USCAA-II-Yankee          95 106 0.473    2 -4.437

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.287 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 23 16:23:29 2019

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