Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple         4 23  0 1750 2199 -0.750    3  3.326    3 -1.786    3 -1.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -1.913 -1.571
Central Baptist          5 24  0 2061 2472 -1.463    6  3.028    6 -2.110    5 -1.921    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.638 -1.346 -2.496
Ecclesia                11 13  0 1557 1657 -1.768    4  3.313    4 -1.800    4 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.321 -2.452 -1.053
Carver Bible             0 21  0 1491 2139 -0.185    5  3.225    5 -1.892    6 -1.940    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.815 -0.562 -3.317
Walla Walla              6 13  0 1336 1509 -1.192    2  3.408    2 -1.711    2 -1.713    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.533 -1.581 -1.844
Pensacola Christian     13 13  0 2068 1951 -1.256    1  3.568    1 -1.548    1 -1.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602 -0.979 -1.819


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-0.798 (#6)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
MidAmerica Nazarene     30  5  0 2840 2426  0.155       6.780       1.095       0.765      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.591  1.141  0.389
SW Assem of God          6 22  0 1896 2176 -0.759       3.733      -1.369      -1.278      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.446 -1.500 -1.056
Mid-America Christian    7 25  0 2094 2531 -0.069       4.463      -0.746      -0.966      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558 -0.731 -1.201
Central Baptist          5 24  0 2061 2472 -1.463    6  3.028    6 -2.110    5 -1.921    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.638 -1.346 -2.496
Ecclesia                11 13  0 1557 1657 -1.768    4  3.313    4 -1.800    4 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.321 -2.452 -1.053
Oklahoma Wesleyan       24  8  0 2566 2341 -0.551       5.661       0.234      -0.208      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.646  0.405 -0.820
Dallas Baptist          15 17  0 2653 2636  0.004       5.337      -0.052       0.071      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.699  0.915 -0.774
Central Christian KS    12 17  0 2037 2069 -1.650       3.253      -1.864      -1.612      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.415 -1.955 -1.270
Colorado Christian      17 13  0 2300 2174  0.615       6.228       0.680       0.771      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.563  1.027  0.514

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.096 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Malone                  20 10  0 2349 2201 -0.251       5.591       0.169      -0.077      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.551  0.130 -0.284
Mt Vernon Nazarene      23  8  0 2561 2208 -0.073       5.977       0.472       0.518      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.601  0.935  0.101
Roberts Wesleyan         9 18  0 1964 1966 -0.508       4.035      -1.094      -0.619      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.493 -0.652 -0.587
Nyack                   11 16  0 1763 1851 -0.159       4.984      -0.302      -0.283      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.398 -0.691  0.125

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.620 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Asbury                  18 17  0 2773 2621 -0.923       4.225      -0.939      -0.733      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.575 -0.427 -1.039
Mid-Continent           10 22  0 2432 2670 -0.236       4.580      -0.636      -0.566      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.655  0.085 -1.217
Bluefield VA            24  8  0 3028 2706 -0.111       6.030       0.503       0.311      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.904  2.118 -1.496
Oakland City            16 14  0 2253 2152 -1.155       4.471      -0.740      -1.119      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.520 -1.043 -1.195
Bryan                   10 17  0 1778 1895 -0.603       4.241      -0.924      -0.848      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.343 -1.465 -0.231

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.527 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Indiana Wesleyan        23 13  0 2553 2329  0.145       5.927       0.426       0.525      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.386  0.068  0.982
Spring Arbor            19 16  0 2455 2374  0.176       5.645       0.218       0.256      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.442  0.018  0.494
Grace IN                26  9  1 2692 2454  0.204       6.374       0.774       0.606      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.492  0.568  0.644
Taylor                  17 12  0 1843 1661  0.124       5.698       0.272       0.251      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.183 -0.944  1.445
Huntington IN           22 10  0 2473 2288  0.240       6.212       0.665       0.485      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.576  0.793  0.176
Cedarville              23  8  0 2477 2181  0.093       6.173       0.636       0.681      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.546  0.866  0.497

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.577 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Bethel IN               28  7  0 2869 2432  0.155       6.511       0.886       0.834      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.596  1.227  0.440
Judson IL               18  9  0 2205 2069 -0.655       5.126      -0.216      -0.383      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.686  0.403 -1.169
Trinity Int'l            8 22  0 2144 2388 -0.696       3.816      -1.289      -1.174      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.574 -0.873 -1.475
Olivet Nazarene         16 15  0 2313 2219  0.443       5.909       0.409       0.637      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.487  0.581  0.693
Trinity Christian       24 13  0 2734 2506 -0.881       4.809      -0.447      -0.468      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.424 -0.777 -0.158
Bethany Lutheran        11 18  0 2174 2253 -1.044       3.717      -1.384      -1.122      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.582 -0.787 -1.457
Northwestern MN         20  9  0 2281 2010 -1.360       4.271      -0.894      -0.821      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.545 -0.639 -1.004
Greenville              12 13  0 1757 1776 -1.682       3.466      -1.651      -1.658      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.481 -1.738 -1.577

NCCAA-I Northwest: strength=-0.662 (#5)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Corban                  10 20  0 2373 2544 -0.355       4.408      -0.802      -0.733      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.707  0.149 -1.615
Walla Walla              6 13  0 1336 1509 -1.192    2  3.408    2 -1.711    2 -1.713    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.533 -1.581 -1.844
Warner Pacific          22 11  0 2871 2676  0.067       5.971       0.466       0.342      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.767  1.497 -0.814

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.896 (#7)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple         4 23  0 1750 2199 -0.750    3  3.326    3 -1.786    3 -1.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -1.913 -1.571
Southern Wesleyan       10 21  0 2269 2515 -0.285       4.524      -0.685      -0.673      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.613 -0.203 -1.142
North Greenville         7 22  0 1961 2227 -0.944       3.678      -1.423      -1.280      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.463 -1.435 -1.124
Carver Bible             0 21  0 1491 2139 -0.185    5  3.225    5 -1.892    6 -1.940    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.815 -0.562 -3.317
Palm Beach Atlantic      4 23  0 1646 2050  0.244       4.617      -0.603      -0.726      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.402 -1.120 -0.331
Emmanuel GA             15 18  0 2252 2237 -0.234       4.933      -0.343      -0.149      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.386 -0.606  0.308
Faulkner                17 16  0 2396 2298  0.160       5.526       0.115       0.337      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.504  0.348  0.326
Pensacola Christian     13 13  0 2068 1951 -1.256    1  3.568    1 -1.548    1 -1.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602 -0.979 -1.819
Chowan                  12 17  0 2031 2118  0.101       5.303      -0.079      -0.129      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.448 -0.341  0.083

NCCAA-I West: strength=-0.920 (#8)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
The Master's College    16 15  0 2170 2177  0.229       5.709       0.283       0.141      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.474  0.031  0.251
Simpson CA              10 17  0 1999 2156 -0.801       4.026      -1.102      -1.075      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.647 -0.457 -1.692
Hope Int'l               1 26  0 1577 2191 -0.145       3.664      -1.439      -1.593      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.434 -1.861 -1.326

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest            130  68   1 0.656    1  0.527
NCCAA-I East                63  52   0 0.548    2 -0.096
NCCAA-I North Central      137 106   0 0.564    3 -0.577
NCCAA-I Mideast             78  78   0 0.500    4 -0.620
NCCAA-I Northwest           38  44   0 0.463    5 -0.662
NCCAA-I Central            127 144   0 0.469    6 -0.798
NCCAA-I South               82 174   0 0.320    7 -0.896
NCCAA-I West                27  58   0 0.318    8 -0.920

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:55 2008

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