Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.816    1  4.459    1 -1.016    1 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -1.063 -1.153
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.383    2  4.065    2 -1.299    2 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.578 -0.996 -1.671
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.590    3  3.712    3 -1.639    4 -1.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.323 -2.210 -0.857
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.013    4  3.479    4 -1.832    3 -1.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.759 -0.350 -2.617
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.613    5  3.202    5 -2.139    6 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.481 -1.981 -1.851
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.321    6  2.886    6 -2.445    5 -1.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.642 -1.282 -2.505
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7  2.345    7 -2.796    7 -2.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -1.659 -3.955


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-0.483 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Oklahoma Wesleyan       30  5 3134 2559 -0.118       6.975       0.857       0.702      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.681  1.485 -0.081
Dallas Baptist          18 13 2556 2450  0.439       6.557       0.576       0.637      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.728  1.629 -0.356
Colorado Christian      12 17 2031 2115  0.627       6.342       0.402       0.414      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.452  0.234  0.595
Mid-America Christian   19 19 2956 2959  0.276       6.097       0.240       0.199      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.653  0.859 -0.461
Central Christian KS    21 13 2927 2610 -0.881       4.966      -0.619      -0.693      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.689  0.124 -1.510
York NE                 10 20 2273 2471 -0.337       4.808      -0.740      -0.810      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.644 -0.192 -1.428
SW Assem of God         12 22 2532 2743 -0.588       4.618      -0.910      -0.857      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.574 -0.537 -1.177
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.383    2  4.065    2 -1.299    2 -1.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.578 -0.996 -1.671
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.590    3  3.712    3 -1.639    4 -1.534    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.323 -2.210 -0.857
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7  2.345    7 -2.796    7 -2.807    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -1.659 -3.955

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.395 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Malone                  13 16 2089 2077 -0.050       5.404      -0.255      -0.126      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.471 -0.229 -0.023
Roberts Wesleyan        16 12 2170 1917 -0.405       5.341      -0.320      -0.087      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.526  0.033 -0.207
Nyack                   12 15 1972 2035 -0.271       5.300      -0.352      -0.314      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.584  0.049 -0.676
Geneva                  16 12 2065 2043 -0.831       4.961      -0.623      -0.765      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.551 -0.541 -0.989
Mt Vernon Nazarene      13 16 2148 2171 -0.503       4.895      -0.652      -0.621      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558 -0.369 -0.873

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.735 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
King TN                 25  7 2669 2222  0.172       7.031       0.907       0.838      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.561  1.104  0.572
Mid-Continent           24 15 3045 2800  0.007       6.130       0.271       0.348      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558  0.603  0.094
Oakland City            20 10 2488 2071 -1.236       5.317      -0.338      -0.799      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.541 -0.620 -0.979
Bryan                   18 11 2016 1801 -0.864       4.950      -0.633      -0.429      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.269 -1.303  0.445
Bluefield VA            15 19 2422 2522 -0.720       4.653      -0.881      -0.824      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.479 -0.895 -0.754
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.816    1  4.459    1 -1.016    1 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -1.063 -1.153
Asbury                  15 19 2670 2727 -0.930       4.424      -1.051      -1.091      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.626 -0.549 -1.633
Cincinnati Christian U. 16 18 3161 3063 -0.983       4.372      -1.094      -0.966      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.905  0.865 -2.798
Covenant                 3 23 1579 2057 -1.275       3.086      -2.269      -2.414      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.416 -2.737 -2.091

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.385 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Indiana Wesleyan        30  6 2738 2315  0.271       7.320       1.142       1.040      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.420  0.734  1.345
Spring Arbor            23 12 2421 2304  0.276       6.694       0.665       0.400      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.381 -0.059  0.859
Cedarville              26  9 2843 2513 -0.005       6.492       0.528       0.565      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.603  1.008  0.121
Grace IN                17 16 2407 2485  0.206       6.085       0.228      -0.070      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.563  0.205 -0.345
Huntington IN           15 15 2299 2189  0.190       5.871       0.081       0.227      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587  0.600 -0.147
Taylor                  11 20 2066 2047 -0.083       4.983      -0.604      -0.199      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.329 -0.852  0.454

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.523 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Bethel IN               28  7 2853 2414  0.203       7.077       0.949       0.910      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.581  1.258  0.562
Olivet Nazarene         19 12 2357 2092  0.247       6.361       0.416       0.502      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.495  0.495  0.508
Northwestern MN         22  7 2139 1894 -0.751       5.518      -0.145      -0.153      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.467 -0.272 -0.034
Judson IL               17 17 2827 2833 -0.577       4.967      -0.617      -0.459      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.727  0.533 -1.450
Trinity Christian       12 18 2276 2408 -0.947       4.271      -1.153      -1.151      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.609 -0.682 -1.621
Trinity Int'l            6 26 2434 2768 -0.617       3.804      -1.550      -1.181      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.691 -0.353 -2.010
Greenville              13 13 2073 2052 -1.782       3.656      -1.695      -1.625      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.698 -0.766 -2.485

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.741 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chowan                  18 10 1970 1885  0.265       6.651       0.628       0.538      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.446  0.336  0.741
Emmanuel GA             20 12 2475 2255 -0.329       5.735      -0.049       0.063      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.535  0.219 -0.093
Palm Beach Atlantic      6 25 2006 2261  0.330       5.132      -0.499      -0.143      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.410 -0.489  0.203
Southern Wesleyan       13 18 2435 2454 -0.329       5.081      -0.547      -0.380      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.701  0.491 -1.250
North Greenville        16 13 2327 2194 -0.828       4.978      -0.610      -0.495      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.611 -0.019 -0.972
Truett-McConnell         7 25 2146 2584 -0.878       3.881      -1.464      -1.702      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.519 -1.609 -1.795
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.013    4  3.479    4 -1.832    3 -1.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.759 -0.350 -2.617
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.613    5  3.202    5 -2.139    6 -1.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.481 -1.981 -1.851

NCCAA-I West: strength=-1.092 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
The Master's College    19 14 2198 2142  0.187       6.318       0.383       0.264      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.362 -0.265  0.793
Hope Int'l               4 27 1839 2253 -0.099       4.220      -1.193      -1.003      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.376 -1.478 -0.528
Simpson CA               9 21 2057 2353 -0.885       4.019      -1.343      -1.434      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.547 -1.228 -1.640
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.321    6  2.886    6 -2.445    5 -1.894    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.642 -1.282 -2.505

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest           122  78 0.610    1  0.385
NCCAA-I East               70  71 0.496    2 -0.395
NCCAA-I Central           154 148 0.510    3 -0.483
NCCAA-I North Central     117 100 0.539    4 -0.523
NCCAA-I Mideast           150 140 0.517    5 -0.735
NCCAA-I South              88 145 0.378    6 -0.741
NCCAA-I West               35  84 0.294    7 -1.092

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:34 2010

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