Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple        14 17 2160 2285 -0.827    1  4.158    1 -1.004    1 -1.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.489 -1.110 -1.038
Central Baptist         15 10 1992 1882 -1.317    2  3.877    2 -1.250    2 -1.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.597 -0.831 -1.657
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.532    3  3.543    3 -1.585    4 -1.462    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.320 -2.150 -0.773
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527  0.004    4  3.280    4 -1.788    3 -1.451    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.754 -0.339 -2.563
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.561    5  3.041    5 -2.075    6 -1.865    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.482 -1.925 -1.804
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.255    6  2.747    6 -2.364    5 -1.825    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.639 -1.229 -2.421
Crowley's Ridge          2 12 1059 1299 -1.890    7  2.525    7 -2.505    7 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.772 -1.394 -3.782


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-0.424 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Oklahoma Wesleyan       27  4 2815 2270 -0.219       6.413       0.802       0.657      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.694  1.495 -0.181
Dallas Baptist          17 11 2270 2165  0.540       6.354       0.752       0.785      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.691  1.610 -0.040
Colorado Christian      11 15 1805 1847  0.702       6.013       0.484       0.616      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.430  0.348  0.883
Mid-America Christian   16 16 2465 2486  0.430       5.922       0.402       0.319      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.644  0.938 -0.299
Central Christian KS    21 12 2826 2500 -0.883       4.744      -0.562      -0.676      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.673  0.070 -1.422
York NE                 10 20 2273 2471 -0.293       4.534      -0.696      -0.777      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.642 -0.168 -1.386
SW Assem of God         10 20 2227 2439 -0.599       4.188      -0.972      -0.950      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.583 -0.596 -1.303
Central Baptist         15 10 1992 1882 -1.317    2  3.877    2 -1.250    2 -1.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.597 -0.831 -1.657
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.532    3  3.543    3 -1.585    4 -1.462    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.320 -2.150 -0.773
Crowley's Ridge          2 12 1059 1299 -1.890    7  2.525    7 -2.505    7 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.772 -1.394 -3.782

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.314 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Malone                  13 16 2089 2077  0.036       5.213      -0.171      -0.026      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.471 -0.132  0.079
Roberts Wesleyan        16 12 2170 1917 -0.320       5.128      -0.234       0.011      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.526  0.126 -0.105
Nyack                   12 15 1972 2035 -0.213       5.067      -0.296      -0.276      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.586  0.091 -0.643
Mt Vernon Nazarene      13 16 2148 2171 -0.422       4.726      -0.579      -0.534      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.560 -0.275 -0.794
Geneva                  15 11 1937 1896 -0.800       4.675      -0.593      -0.665      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558 -0.415 -0.915

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.657 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
King TN                 22  5 2282 1875  0.335       6.852       1.192       1.047      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558  1.298  0.797
Mid-Continent           19 13 2446 2266  0.095       5.810       0.297       0.367      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.526  0.484  0.249
Oakland City            18  8 2196 1776 -1.171       5.224      -0.161      -0.608      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.540 -0.432 -0.783
Bryan                   18 11 2016 1801 -0.817       4.684      -0.586      -0.368      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.268 -1.246  0.510
Bluefield VA            14 18 2258 2352 -0.647       4.390      -0.826      -0.733      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.455 -0.903 -0.562
Asbury                  15 19 2670 2727 -0.860       4.185      -0.974      -1.031      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.621 -0.512 -1.550
Tennessee Temple        14 17 2160 2285 -0.827    1  4.158    1 -1.004    1 -1.074    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.489 -1.110 -1.038
Cincinnati Christian U. 16 17 3100 2977 -0.934       4.149      -1.011      -0.863      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.922  1.049 -2.775
Covenant                 3 22 1505 1961 -1.254       2.913      -2.211      -2.418      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.395 -2.822 -2.013

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.445 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Indiana Wesleyan        27  5 2450 2063  0.277       6.836       1.176       1.076      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.431  0.811  1.341
Spring Arbor            22 11 2309 2189  0.304       6.315       0.715       0.463      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.399  0.072  0.854
Cedarville              24  8 2614 2293  0.022       6.131       0.564       0.641      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.606  1.094  0.188
Grace IN                16 14 2175 2233  0.268       5.849       0.335       0.048      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.547  0.251 -0.155
Huntington IN           15 15 2299 2189  0.242       5.615       0.132       0.297      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.585  0.659 -0.066
Taylor                  11 20 2066 2047 -0.028       4.763      -0.545      -0.135      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.325 -0.806  0.535

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.493 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Bethel IN               27  5 2644 2202  0.207       6.755       1.101       1.040      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.584  1.402  0.679
Olivet Nazarene         19 10 2240 1953  0.353       6.229       0.635       0.746      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.514  0.815  0.678
Northwestern MN         19  7 1928 1703 -0.928       4.887      -0.422      -0.344      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.488 -0.384 -0.304
Judson IL               17 16 2770 2770 -0.557       4.762      -0.547      -0.433      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.740  0.614 -1.480
Trinity Christian       12 18 2276 2408 -0.888       4.050      -1.098      -1.102      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.607 -0.643 -1.561
Trinity Int'l            6 26 2434 2768 -0.558       3.641      -1.486      -1.131      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.690 -0.308 -1.954
Greenville              13 13 2073 2052 -1.734       3.486      -1.646      -1.595      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.699 -0.733 -2.456

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.719 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chowan                  18 10 1970 1885  0.305       6.262       0.665       0.587      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.447  0.384  0.789
Emmanuel GA             20 10 2314 2077 -0.335       5.558       0.078       0.158      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.506  0.194  0.122
Southern Wesleyan       13 17 2361 2378 -0.341       4.804      -0.502      -0.398      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.698  0.458 -1.255
North Greenville        15 12 2178 2060 -0.804       4.758      -0.551      -0.519      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.616 -0.024 -1.014
Palm Beach Atlantic      3 23 1625 1898  0.518       4.733      -0.571      -0.148      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.381 -0.608  0.311
Truett-McConnell         7 24 2085 2506 -0.854       3.715      -1.410      -1.692      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.526 -1.576 -1.807
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527  0.004    4  3.280    4 -1.788    3 -1.451    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.754 -0.339 -2.563
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.561    5  3.041    5 -2.075    6 -1.865    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.482 -1.925 -1.804

NCCAA-I West: strength=-1.035 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
The Master's College    19 12 2083 1982  0.189       5.994       0.467       0.419      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.364 -0.106  0.943
Hope Int'l               4 26 1782 2192 -0.087       3.993      -1.145      -1.055      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.378 -1.525 -0.585
Simpson CA               9 21 2057 2353 -0.804       3.865      -1.262      -1.371      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.549 -1.158 -1.584
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.255    6  2.747    6 -2.364    5 -1.825    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.639 -1.229 -2.421

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest           115  73 0.612    1  0.445
NCCAA-I East               69  70 0.496    2 -0.314
NCCAA-I Central           143 133 0.518    3 -0.424
NCCAA-I North Central     113  95 0.543    4 -0.493
NCCAA-I Mideast           139 130 0.517    5 -0.657
NCCAA-I South              84 138 0.378    6 -0.719
NCCAA-I West               35  81 0.302    7 -1.035

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.279 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sat Mar  6 17:19:41 2010

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