Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.822    1  4.538    1 -1.030    1 -1.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -1.053 -1.136
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.377    2  4.158    2 -1.296    2 -1.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.580 -0.970 -1.664
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.584    3  3.786    3 -1.635    4 -1.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.324 -2.196 -0.850
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.021    4  3.540    4 -1.836    3 -1.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.759 -0.349 -2.619
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.603    5  3.277    5 -2.132    6 -1.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.481 -1.978 -1.849
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.317    6  2.827    6 -2.442    5 -1.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -1.285 -2.500
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7  2.352    7 -2.794    7 -2.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -1.705 -4.002


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-0.459 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Oklahoma Wesleyan       30  4 3061 2482 -0.135       7.041       0.941       0.739      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.687  1.551 -0.072
Dallas Baptist          18 13 2556 2450  0.458       6.630       0.593       0.661      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.728  1.653 -0.332
Mid-America Christian   19 17 2816 2808  0.385       6.409       0.435       0.355      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.661  1.050 -0.341
Colorado Christian      12 17 2031 2115  0.644       6.388       0.418       0.434      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.452  0.253  0.616
Central Christian KS    21 13 2927 2610 -0.871       5.076      -0.607      -0.683      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.688  0.130 -1.496
York NE                 10 20 2273 2471 -0.323       4.900      -0.725      -0.798      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.643 -0.183 -1.413
SW Assem of God         12 22 2532 2743 -0.573       4.716      -0.896      -0.850      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.575 -0.527 -1.173
Central Baptist         16 11 2121 2015 -1.377    2  4.158    2 -1.296    2 -1.317    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.580 -0.970 -1.664
Ecclesia                14 13 1821 1844 -1.584    3  3.786    3 -1.635    4 -1.523    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.324 -2.196 -0.850
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040    7  2.352    7 -2.794    7 -2.853    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -1.705 -4.002

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.369 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Malone                  13 16 2089 2077 -0.017       5.510      -0.222      -0.086      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.471 -0.190  0.018
Roberts Wesleyan        16 12 2170 1917 -0.374       5.440      -0.290      -0.048      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.525  0.069 -0.166
Nyack                   12 15 1972 2035 -0.266       5.379      -0.346      -0.321      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.584  0.043 -0.685
Mt Vernon Nazarene      13 16 2148 2171 -0.475       5.007      -0.628      -0.590      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.557 -0.342 -0.838
Geneva                  15 11 1937 1896 -0.860       4.985      -0.648      -0.725      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.559 -0.467 -0.984

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.720 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
King TN                 23  6 2453 2027  0.245       7.157       1.023       0.929      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.572  1.242  0.617
Mid-Continent           22 14 2805 2590  0.048       6.195       0.310       0.346      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.558  0.596  0.095
Oakland City            19  8 2270 1826 -1.308       5.545      -0.190      -0.755      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.533 -0.605 -0.906
Bryan                   18 11 2016 1801 -0.869       5.000      -0.634      -0.424      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.268 -1.300  0.453
Bluefield VA            15 19 2422 2522 -0.712       4.744      -0.874      -0.814      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.478 -0.888 -0.739
Tennessee Temple        14 18 2242 2386 -0.822    1  4.538    1 -1.030    1 -1.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -1.053 -1.136
Asbury                  15 19 2670 2727 -0.910       4.535      -1.031      -1.077      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.626 -0.534 -1.621
Cincinnati Christian U. 16 18 3161 3063 -0.961       4.491      -1.073      -0.946      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.905  0.885 -2.777
Covenant                 3 23 1579 2057 -1.267       3.161      -2.258      -2.428      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.416 -2.750 -2.107

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.410 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Indiana Wesleyan        30  6 2738 2315  0.288       7.318       1.159       1.074      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.419  0.766  1.382
Spring Arbor            23 12 2421 2304  0.290       6.727       0.677       0.429      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.381 -0.026  0.884
Cedarville              26  9 2843 2513  0.024       6.557       0.557       0.604      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.602  1.044  0.165
Grace IN                16 14 2175 2233  0.227       6.177       0.294       0.004      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.550  0.223 -0.214
Huntington IN           15 15 2299 2189  0.209       5.930       0.100       0.256      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587  0.629 -0.118
Taylor                  11 20 2066 2047 -0.065       5.101      -0.585      -0.176      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.328 -0.833  0.481

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.540 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Bethel IN               28  7 2853 2414  0.220       7.067       0.965       0.942      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.580  1.289  0.595
Olivet Nazarene         19 11 2299 2013  0.287       6.487       0.499       0.649      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.501  0.668  0.630
Northwestern MN         19  7 1928 1703 -0.994       5.211      -0.486      -0.414      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.488 -0.450 -0.378
Judson IL               17 17 2827 2833 -0.561       5.082      -0.602      -0.441      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.728  0.553 -1.434
Trinity Christian       12 18 2276 2408 -0.928       4.386      -1.136      -1.139      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.609 -0.669 -1.608
Trinity Int'l            6 26 2434 2768 -0.600       3.912      -1.533      -1.169      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.691 -0.341 -1.998
Greenville              13 13 2073 2052 -1.768       3.741      -1.679      -1.622      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.698 -0.763 -2.482

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.752 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Chowan                  18 10 1970 1885  0.281       6.686       0.643       0.558      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.446  0.356  0.760
Emmanuel GA             20 12 2475 2255 -0.365       5.683      -0.081       0.039      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.535  0.194 -0.117
Palm Beach Atlantic      5 23 1797 2058  0.408       5.243      -0.451      -0.161      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.413 -0.493  0.172
Southern Wesleyan       13 18 2435 2454 -0.363       5.118      -0.574      -0.415      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.702  0.461 -1.291
North Greenville        16 13 2327 2194 -0.822       5.079      -0.604      -0.505      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.610 -0.031 -0.978
Truett-McConnell         7 25 2146 2584 -0.893       3.960      -1.476      -1.748      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.520 -1.653 -1.842
Carver Bible             1 26 1869 2527 -0.021    4  3.540    4 -1.836    3 -1.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.759 -0.349 -2.619
Pensacola Christian      7 16 1571 1714 -1.603    5  3.277    5 -2.132    6 -1.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.481 -1.978 -1.849

NCCAA-I West: strength=-1.100 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
The Master's College    19 14 2198 2142  0.160       6.253       0.359       0.245      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.360 -0.290  0.781
Hope Int'l               4 27 1839 2253 -0.117       4.281      -1.206      -1.037      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.375 -1.518 -0.557
Simpson CA               9 21 2057 2353 -0.886       4.110      -1.343      -1.445      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.547 -1.238 -1.651
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.317    6  2.827    6 -2.442    5 -1.893    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -1.285 -2.500

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest           121  76 0.614    1  0.410
NCCAA-I East               69  70 0.496    2 -0.369
NCCAA-I Central           154 145 0.515    3 -0.459
NCCAA-I North Central     114  99 0.535    4 -0.540
NCCAA-I Mideast           145 136 0.516    5 -0.720
NCCAA-I South              87 143 0.378    6 -0.752
NCCAA-I West               35  84 0.294    7 -1.100

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Mar 17 13:06:17 2010

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