Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity FL               7 18  0 1930 2352 -3.022   28  1.835   28 -3.579   31 -3.699    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.756 -2.597 -4.801
Florida Christian        5 21  0 1757 2390 -3.114   33  1.462   33 -3.939   33 -3.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.598 -3.452 -4.259
Grace Bible             15 15  0 2298 2369 -1.846    8  3.325    8 -1.787   12 -2.140    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607 -1.699 -2.581
Kuyper                  15 12  0 2119 2184 -2.239    9  3.164    9 -1.959   13 -2.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.682 -1.563 -3.104
Great Lakes Christian    2 15  0  989 1505 -3.248   36  1.297   36 -4.267   40 -4.851    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -5.056 -4.647
St Louis Christian       9 16  0 1750 1894 -3.369   31  1.640   31 -3.758   34 -3.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.510 -3.860 -3.930
Central Bible           12 17  0 2022 2028 -2.160   15  2.623   15 -2.586   10 -2.077    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.394 -2.504 -1.651
Hillsdale Free Will      9 19  0 1859 2135 -2.274   18  2.491   18 -2.771   18 -2.783    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.453 -2.978 -2.589
Ozark Christian         21 14  0 2798 2653 -2.720   14  2.799   13 -2.366   14 -2.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -2.133 -3.061
Free Will Baptist        6 21  0 1736 2248 -4.058   39  1.127   39 -4.683   39 -4.817    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -4.986 -4.649
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Toccoa Falls            11 17  0 2156 2301 -2.830   22  2.116   22 -3.172   22 -3.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.589 -2.726 -3.456
Atlanta Christian       14 14  0 2247 2163 -2.234   13  2.811   14 -2.366   11 -2.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -1.673 -2.597
Trinity Bible           10  8  0 1509 1413 -3.601   27  1.873   27 -3.527   27 -3.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.722 -2.403 -4.303
Faith Baptist Bible     15  7  0 1574 1434 -2.933   12  2.953   12 -2.204   17 -2.743    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.423 -3.055 -2.432
Manhattan Christian     18 10  0 2276 2097 -2.245    7  3.387    7 -1.738    9 -2.012    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -1.525 -2.499
SW Christian            20  9  0 2339 2244 -1.980    4  3.695    4 -1.408    7 -1.855    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.637 -1.281 -2.428
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    11 15  0 2061 2037 -3.595   34  1.426   34 -3.987   30 -3.603    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -2.841 -4.365
Boyce                    6 19  0 1714 2222 -4.243   41  1.006   41 -4.987   38 -4.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.544 -4.565 -4.918
Cincinnati Christian    15 12  0 2332 1925 -1.716   10  3.119   10 -2.008    4 -1.432    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.584 -1.088 -1.776
Clearwater Christian     8 14  0 1665 1833 -2.876   25  1.995   25 -3.332   21 -3.081    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.618 -2.590 -3.572
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Baptist Bible MO        11 15  0 2192 2213 -2.976   23  2.090   23 -3.201   23 -3.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.780 -1.936 -4.365
Kentucky Christian      21  7  0 2638 2173 -1.707    2  4.106    2 -1.030    2 -1.254    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.754 -0.161 -2.347
Crown TN                 4 16  0 1323 1814 -4.209   40  1.056   40 -4.875   41 -4.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.582 -4.634 -5.303
Calvary Bible            2 19  0 1059 1827 -5.073   42  0.679   42 -5.751   42 -6.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.330 -7.078 -5.745
Emmaus Bible             8 17  0 1610 1717 -3.919   37  1.252   37 -4.395   35 -4.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.346 -4.793 -3.577
Multnomah Bible         13 13  0 1986 2028 -2.648   16  2.612   16 -2.599   19 -2.789    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.593 -2.407 -3.171
Lincoln Christian        8 19  0 2091 2255 -2.347   20  2.301   20 -2.984   15 -2.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.724 -1.717 -3.633
Northland Bapt Bible     7 13  0 1316 1578 -2.778   21  2.204   21 -3.060   25 -3.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -3.326 -3.197
Washington Bible         1 12  0  673 1075 -6.547   45  0.000   45 -7.490   45 -7.337    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.400 -7.736 -6.937
Ohio Christian          13 15  0 2315 2311 -2.627   17  2.501   17 -2.758   16 -2.716    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -1.957 -3.475
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Wesley MS               15 12  0 2217 2124 -1.288    3  4.013    3 -1.115    3 -1.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -0.593 -2.113
Piedmont Baptist         9 10  0 1347 1423 -3.647   29  1.784   29 -3.609   32 -3.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.467 -3.869 -3.590
Pillsbury Bapt Bible    10 11  0 1515 1469 -4.110   35  1.387   35 -4.092   36 -4.204    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.505 -4.190 -4.219
Davis College            6  6  0  969  954 -3.549   26  1.896   26 -3.490   29 -3.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -2.748 -4.274
Valley Forge Chr        20  9  0 2494 2218 -1.932    5  3.630    5 -1.477    5 -1.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.660 -0.797 -2.144
Johnson Bible           12 15  0 2139 2189 -3.203   24  1.996   24 -3.330   26 -3.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.630 -2.770 -3.855
Vennard                  0 19  0  838 1587 -5.403   44  0.175   44 -7.048   44 -7.277    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.192 -8.441 -6.113
Moody Bible              4 14  0 1201 1324 -2.952   32  1.518   32 -3.836   28 -3.366    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.437 -3.624 -3.109
Dallas Christian         8 14  0 1579 1854 -2.552   19  2.477   19 -2.775   20 -2.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.596 -2.528 -3.322
Southeastern FL         19 10  0 2378 2114 -1.349    1  4.219    1 -0.945    1 -1.158    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.581 -0.825 -1.491
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace NE                16 11  0 2115 1939 -1.757    6  3.579    6 -1.536    6 -1.669    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539 -1.514 -1.823
Lancaster Bible          4 21  0 1746 2100 -2.439   30  1.765   30 -3.632   24 -3.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.596 -2.805 -3.598
Providence MB            8 13  0 1466 1662 -4.362   38  1.224   38 -4.446   37 -4.598    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.545 -4.415 -4.780
Appalachian Bible        1 14  0  710 1302 -4.834   43  0.592   43 -5.933   43 -6.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.228 -7.937 -5.862
Southwestern AZ          6  8  0 1015 1061 -1.812   11  2.982   11 -2.169    8 -1.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.565 -1.672 -2.201


NCCAA-II Central: strength=-3.511 (#7)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Louis Christian       9 16  0 1750 1894 -3.369   31  1.640   31 -3.758   34 -3.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.510 -3.860 -3.930
Central Bible           12 17  0 2022 2028 -2.160   15  2.623   15 -2.586   10 -2.077    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.394 -2.504 -1.651
Baptist Bible MO        11 15  0 2192 2213 -2.976   23  2.090   23 -3.201   23 -3.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.780 -1.936 -4.365
Vennard                  0 19  0  838 1587 -5.403   44  0.175   44 -7.048   44 -7.277    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.192 -8.441 -6.113

NCCAA-II East: strength=-2.705 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Davis College            6  6  0  969  954 -3.549   26  1.896   26 -3.490   29 -3.511    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -2.748 -4.274
Valley Forge Chr        20  9  0 2494 2218 -1.932    5  3.630    5 -1.477    5 -1.470    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.660 -0.797 -2.144
Lancaster Bible          4 21  0 1746 2100 -2.439   30  1.765   30 -3.632   24 -3.202    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.596 -2.805 -3.598
Baptist Bible PA        18 10  0 2022 1876 -1.757       3.768      -1.337      -1.322      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.434 -1.591 -1.053
Phila Biblical           3 21  0 1433 1902 -2.330       2.178      -3.090      -3.159      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.393 -3.587 -2.730

NCCAA-II Midwest: strength=-3.083 (#5)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace Bible             15 15  0 2298 2369 -1.846    8  3.325    8 -1.787   12 -2.140    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607 -1.699 -2.581
Kuyper                  15 12  0 2119 2184 -2.239    9  3.164    9 -1.959   13 -2.334    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.682 -1.563 -3.104
Great Lakes Christian    2 15  0  989 1505 -3.248   36  1.297   36 -4.267   40 -4.851    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -5.056 -4.647
Emmaus Bible             8 17  0 1610 1717 -3.919   37  1.252   37 -4.395   35 -4.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.346 -4.793 -3.577
Lincoln Christian        8 19  0 2091 2255 -2.347   20  2.301   20 -2.984   15 -2.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.724 -1.717 -3.633
Northland Bapt Bible     7 13  0 1316 1578 -2.778   21  2.204   21 -3.060   25 -3.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -3.326 -3.197
Moody Bible              4 14  0 1201 1324 -2.952   32  1.518   32 -3.836   28 -3.366    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.437 -3.624 -3.109
Maranatha Baptist        5 19  0 1693 1919 -1.859       2.665      -2.537      -2.263      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.543 -2.090 -2.436

NCCAA-II Mid East: strength=-3.886 (#8)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Free Will Baptist        6 21  0 1736 2248 -4.058   39  1.127   39 -4.683   39 -4.817    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -4.986 -4.649
Boyce                    6 19  0 1714 2222 -4.243   41  1.006   41 -4.987   38 -4.742    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.544 -4.565 -4.918
Cincinnati Christian    15 12  0 2332 1925 -1.716   10  3.119   10 -2.008    4 -1.432    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.584 -1.088 -1.776
Kentucky Christian      21  7  0 2638 2173 -1.707    2  4.106    2 -1.030    2 -1.254    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.754 -0.161 -2.347
Crown TN                 4 16  0 1323 1814 -4.209   40  1.056   40 -4.875   41 -4.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.582 -4.634 -5.303
Ohio Christian          13 15  0 2315 2311 -2.627   17  2.501   17 -2.758   16 -2.716    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -1.957 -3.475
Johnson Bible           12 15  0 2139 2189 -3.203   24  1.996   24 -3.330   26 -3.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.630 -2.770 -3.855
Appalachian Bible        1 14  0  710 1302 -4.834   43  0.592   43 -5.933   43 -6.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.228 -7.937 -5.862

NCCAA-II Midwest Christian: strength=-3.422 (#6)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ozark Christian         21 14  0 2798 2653 -2.720   14  2.799   13 -2.366   14 -2.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -2.133 -3.061
Manhattan Christian     18 10  0 2276 2097 -2.245    7  3.387    7 -1.738    9 -2.012    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -1.525 -2.499
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO    11 15  0 2061 2037 -3.595   34  1.426   34 -3.987   30 -3.603    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -2.841 -4.365
Calvary Bible            2 19  0 1059 1827 -5.073   42  0.679   42 -5.751   42 -6.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.330 -7.078 -5.745
Nebraska Christian       3 17  0 1335 1764 -4.254       0.776      -5.487      -5.039      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.565 -4.776 -5.303
Barclay                  6 13  0 1478 1564 -3.484       1.328      -4.206      -3.845      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.699 -3.001 -4.688
Grace NE                16 11  0 2115 1939 -1.757    6  3.579    6 -1.536    6 -1.669    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539 -1.514 -1.823

NCCAA-II North Central: strength=-2.855 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Faith Baptist Bible     15  7  0 1574 1434 -2.933   12  2.953   12 -2.204   17 -2.743    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.423 -3.055 -2.432
Crown MN                 6 21  0 1815 2102 -2.317       2.296      -2.989      -2.712      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.492 -2.750 -2.673
North Central MN         8 18  0 1590 1964 -2.211       2.871      -2.300      -2.671      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.335 -3.322 -2.021

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.853 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity FL               7 18  0 1930 2352 -3.022   28  1.835   28 -3.579   31 -3.699    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.756 -2.597 -4.801
Florida Christian        5 21  0 1757 2390 -3.114   33  1.462   33 -3.939   33 -3.856    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.598 -3.452 -4.259
Toccoa Falls            11 17  0 2156 2301 -2.830   22  2.116   22 -3.172   22 -3.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.589 -2.726 -3.456
Atlanta Christian       14 14  0 2247 2163 -2.234   13  2.811   14 -2.366   11 -2.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -1.673 -2.597
Clearwater Christian     8 14  0 1665 1833 -2.876   25  1.995   25 -3.332   21 -3.081    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.618 -2.590 -3.572
Wesley MS               15 12  0 2217 2124 -1.288    3  4.013    3 -1.115    3 -1.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.680 -0.593 -2.113
Piedmont Baptist         9 10  0 1347 1423 -3.647   29  1.784   29 -3.609   32 -3.730    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.467 -3.869 -3.590
Southeastern FL         19 10  0 2378 2114 -1.349    1  4.219    1 -0.945    1 -1.158    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.581 -0.825 -1.491

NCCAA-II Southwest: strength=-2.540 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Hillsdale Free Will      9 19  0 1859 2135 -2.274   18  2.491   18 -2.771   18 -2.783    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.453 -2.978 -2.589
SW Christian            20  9  0 2339 2244 -1.980    4  3.695    4 -1.408    7 -1.855    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.637 -1.281 -2.428
Dallas Christian         8 14  0 1579 1854 -2.552   19  2.477   19 -2.775   20 -2.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.596 -2.528 -3.322

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II Southwest          37  42   0 0.468    1 -2.540
NCCAA-II East               51  67   0 0.432    2 -2.705
NCCAA-II South              88 116   0 0.431    3 -2.853
NCCAA-II North Central      29  46   0 0.387    4 -2.855
NCCAA-II Midwest            64 124   0 0.340    5 -3.083
NCCAA-II Midwest Christian  77  99   0 0.438    6 -3.422
NCCAA-II Central            32  67   0 0.323    7 -3.511
NCCAA-II Mid East           78 119   0 0.396    8 -3.886

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:55 2008

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