Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace Bible             25 10 2775 2283 -0.520    1  5.709    1 -0.066    1 -0.023    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521  0.077 -0.122
Valley Forge Chr        25  6 2491 2090 -1.651    2  4.741    2 -0.806    4 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.549 -0.768 -1.201
SW Christian            26 13 3376 3115 -1.437    3  4.454    3 -1.023    5 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.684 -0.310 -1.906
Portland Bible          18 15 2635 2467 -1.068    4  4.414    4 -1.061    2 -0.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.528 -0.810 -1.062
Dallas Christian        14 24 2666 2842 -0.796    5  4.090    5 -1.269    3 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.490 -0.967 -0.915
Wesley MS               10 14 1874 1948 -1.198    6  3.972    6 -1.387    6 -1.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.656 -0.874 -2.215
Ohio Christian          26  8 2893 2293 -2.166    7  3.948    7 -1.412    7 -1.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -1.469 -1.667
Northland Int'l         13  9 1617 1530 -1.753    8  3.759    8 -1.593    8 -1.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.491 -1.620 -1.570
Central Bible           19 19 2842 2886 -1.746    9  3.580    9 -1.743    9 -1.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -1.828 -1.667
Baptist Bible MO        18 12 2578 2565 -2.032   10  3.559   10 -1.749   11 -1.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.804 -0.540 -3.230
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Lincoln Christian       17  7 1851 1687 -2.438   11  3.502   11 -1.822   14 -2.101    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.535 -1.945 -2.258
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.416   12  3.468   12 -1.848   13 -1.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.669 -1.222 -2.685
Atlanta Christian       19 16 2764 2643 -1.917   13  3.454   13 -1.863   10 -1.809    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.593 -1.408 -2.209
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.934   14  3.442   14 -1.875   19 -2.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  4.093  0.431 -5.150
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.223   15  3.334   15 -1.990   12 -1.950    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.413 -2.285 -1.614
Kuyper                   9 21 1980 2410 -1.679   16  3.185   16 -2.157   18 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.546 -2.120 -2.527
Southeastern Bible       7 16 1786 2000 -1.656   17  3.109   17 -2.243   15 -2.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.720 -1.224 -3.138
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.299   18  2.953   18 -2.377   22 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.510 -2.534 -2.642
Clearwater Christian    11 15 1903 2039 -2.254   19  2.894   19 -2.437   20 -2.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -2.154 -2.777
Faith Baptist Bible     18 12 2298 2087 -2.653   20  2.767   20 -2.467   17 -2.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534 -2.167 -2.472
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.574   21  2.733   21 -2.504   21 -2.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.557 -2.251 -2.745
Florida Christian       10 14 1785 1754 -2.243   22  2.661   22 -2.592   16 -2.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.509 -2.249 -2.349
Moody Bible              8 10 1106 1177 -2.557   23  2.604   23 -2.661   23 -2.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.259 -3.505 -1.684
Toccoa Falls            11 14 1732 1887 -2.772   24  2.521   24 -2.708   27 -3.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.462 -3.172 -2.888
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.589   25  2.519   25 -2.709   24 -2.821    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.653 -2.161 -3.480
Trinity FL               7 19 1783 2130 -2.177   26  2.478   26 -2.758   26 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.551 -2.779 -3.225
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.765   27  2.036   27 -3.147   25 -2.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.666 -2.261 -3.690
Great Lakes Christian    2 19 1312 1810 -2.666   28  1.649   28 -3.767   28 -3.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633 -3.342 -4.484
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.617   29  1.513   29 -4.048   29 -3.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.563 -3.682 -4.230
Crown TN                 9 13 1501 1638 -4.067   30  1.468   30 -4.122   32 -4.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -4.465 -4.158
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.471   31  1.405   31 -4.260   31 -4.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.361 -4.639 -3.570
Davis College            1  7  543  666 -3.201   32  1.347   32 -4.384   30 -4.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -4.083 -3.920
Piedmont Baptist         5 21 1773 2301 -4.088   33  1.098   33 -4.784   35 -4.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.616 -4.337 -5.335
Johnson Bible            5 18 1571 2012 -4.050   34  1.066   34 -4.838   34 -4.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611 -4.335 -5.286
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.796   35  1.051   35 -4.861   33 -4.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.726 -3.688 -5.662
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.531   36  0.993   36 -4.989   36 -5.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.474 -5.201 -5.016
Boyce                    4 15 1058 1591 -4.799   37  0.979   37 -5.030   37 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.376 -6.332 -5.383
Appalachian Bible        0 11  626 1002 -5.440   38  0.369   38 -6.760   38 -7.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.501 -7.104 -7.136


NCCAA-II Central: strength=-2.383 (#5)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Central Bible           19 19 2842 2886 -1.746    9  3.580    9 -1.743    9 -1.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -1.828 -1.667
Baptist Bible MO        18 12 2578 2565 -2.032   10  3.559   10 -1.749   11 -1.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.804 -0.540 -3.230
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.223   15  3.334   15 -1.990   12 -1.950    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.413 -2.285 -1.614
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.299   18  2.953   18 -2.377   22 -2.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.510 -2.534 -2.642
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.796   35  1.051   35 -4.861   33 -4.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.726 -3.688 -5.662

NCCAA-II East: strength=-2.649 (#6)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Valley Forge Chr        25  6 2491 2090 -1.651    2  4.741    2 -0.806    4 -0.984    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.549 -0.768 -1.201
Lancaster Bible         13 15 2071 2008 -1.808       3.430      -1.888      -1.681      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.502 -1.660 -1.702
Phila Biblical           7 19 1571 1991 -2.236       2.786      -2.442      -2.900      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.370 -3.401 -2.400
Baptist Bible PA         2 22 1580 1923 -2.181       1.953      -3.248      -2.809      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.517 -2.727 -2.892
Davis College            1  7  543  666 -3.201   32  1.347   32 -4.384   30 -4.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -4.083 -3.920

NCCAA-II Midwest: strength=-2.345 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace Bible             25 10 2775 2283 -0.520    1  5.709    1 -0.066    1 -0.023    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521  0.077 -0.122
Northland Int'l         13  9 1617 1530 -1.753    8  3.759    8 -1.593    8 -1.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.491 -1.620 -1.570
Maranatha Baptist        9 16 1604 1751 -1.475       3.723      -1.627      -1.788      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.370 -2.286 -1.290
Lincoln Christian       17  7 1851 1687 -2.438   11  3.502   11 -1.822   14 -2.101    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.535 -1.945 -2.258
Kuyper                   9 21 1980 2410 -1.679   16  3.185   16 -2.157   18 -2.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.546 -2.120 -2.527
Moody Bible              8 10 1106 1177 -2.557   23  2.604   23 -2.661   23 -2.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.259 -3.505 -1.684
Great Lakes Christian    2 19 1312 1810 -2.666   28  1.649   28 -3.767   28 -3.913    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633 -3.342 -4.484
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.471   31  1.405   31 -4.260   31 -4.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.361 -4.639 -3.570

NCCAA-II Mid East: strength=-3.898 (#8)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Campbellsville          26  8 2512 2135  0.294       7.060       0.933       0.870      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.391  0.453  1.287
Kentucky Christian      17 11 2157 2122 -1.999       3.989      -1.370      -1.920      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.504 -1.891 -1.949
Ohio Christian          26  8 2893 2293 -2.166    7  3.948    7 -1.412    7 -1.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -1.469 -1.667
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.617   29  1.513   29 -4.048   29 -3.956    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.563 -3.682 -4.230
Crown TN                 9 13 1501 1638 -4.067   30  1.468   30 -4.122   32 -4.312    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -4.465 -4.158
Johnson Bible            5 18 1571 2012 -4.050   34  1.066   34 -4.838   34 -4.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611 -4.335 -5.286
Boyce                    4 15 1058 1591 -4.799   37  0.979   37 -5.030   37 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.376 -6.332 -5.383
Appalachian Bible        0 11  626 1002 -5.440   38  0.369   38 -6.760   38 -7.120    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.501 -7.104 -7.136

NCCAA-II North Central: strength=-2.894 (#7)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
North Central MN        13 16 2082 2132 -1.730       3.558      -1.748      -1.892      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.499 -1.883 -1.902
Faith Baptist Bible     18 12 2298 2087 -2.653   20  2.767   20 -2.467   17 -2.320    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534 -2.167 -2.472
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.765   27  2.036   27 -3.147   25 -2.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.666 -2.261 -3.690
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.531   36  0.993   36 -4.989   36 -5.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.474 -5.201 -5.016

NCCAA-II South: strength=-2.333 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Southeastern FL         24 13 2954 2683 -1.264       4.673      -0.867      -0.794      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.567 -0.502 -1.086
Wesley MS               10 14 1874 1948 -1.198    6  3.972    6 -1.387    6 -1.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.656 -0.874 -2.215
Atlanta Christian       19 16 2764 2643 -1.917   13  3.454   13 -1.863   10 -1.809    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.593 -1.408 -2.209
Southeastern Bible       7 16 1786 2000 -1.656   17  3.109   17 -2.243   15 -2.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.720 -1.224 -3.138
Clearwater Christian    11 15 1903 2039 -2.254   19  2.894   19 -2.437   20 -2.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -2.154 -2.777
Florida Christian       10 14 1785 1754 -2.243   22  2.661   22 -2.592   16 -2.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.509 -2.249 -2.349
Toccoa Falls            11 14 1732 1887 -2.772   24  2.521   24 -2.708   27 -3.030    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.462 -3.172 -2.888
Trinity FL               7 19 1783 2130 -2.177   26  2.478   26 -2.758   26 -3.002    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.551 -2.779 -3.225
Piedmont Baptist         5 21 1773 2301 -4.088   33  1.098   33 -4.784   35 -4.836    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.616 -4.337 -5.335

NCCAA-II Southwest: strength=-1.716 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
SW Christian            26 13 3376 3115 -1.437    3  4.454    3 -1.023    5 -1.108    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.684 -0.310 -1.906
Dallas Christian        14 24 2666 2842 -0.796    5  4.090    5 -1.269    3 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.490 -0.967 -0.915
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.416   12  3.468   12 -1.848   13 -1.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.669 -1.222 -2.685
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.589   25  2.519   25 -2.709   24 -2.821    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.653 -2.161 -3.480

NCCAA-II West: strength=-1.992 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Portland Bible          18 15 2635 2467 -1.068    4  4.414    4 -1.061    2 -0.936    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.528 -0.810 -1.062
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.934   14  3.442   14 -1.875   19 -2.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  4.093  0.431 -5.150
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.574   21  2.733   21 -2.504   21 -2.498    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.557 -2.251 -2.745

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-II Southwest         68  83 0.450    1 -1.716
NCCAA-II West              36  56 0.391    2 -1.992
NCCAA-II South            104 142 0.423    3 -2.333
NCCAA-II Midwest           89 113 0.441    4 -2.345
NCCAA-II Central           68  74 0.479    5 -2.383
NCCAA-II East              48  69 0.410    6 -2.649
NCCAA-II North Central     41  51 0.446    7 -2.894
NCCAA-II Mid East          98 104 0.485    8 -3.898

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:33 2010

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