Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Taylor-Fort Wayne       16  8  0 1938 1811 -1.838    1  3.708    1 -1.395    3 -1.657    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -1.142 -2.173
Williamson Trade         9  6  0 1033  904 -1.617    2  3.577    2 -1.537    1 -1.297    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.226 -2.343 -0.252
Penn St-New Kensington  20  6  0 1909 1651 -2.473    3  3.400    3 -1.724    4 -2.015    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.408 -2.386 -1.645
Cincinnati-Clermont     19 14  0 2624 2385 -1.770    4  3.307    4 -1.806    2 -1.497    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.564 -1.235 -1.758
Hesser                  13  5  0 1389 1238 -2.779    5  2.973    5 -2.182    5 -2.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -2.304 -2.684
New Hampshire Tech      16  5  0 1526 1387 -2.977    6  2.920    6 -2.247    6 -2.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.432 -2.796 -2.239
Southern Maine CC       15  8  0 1803 1643 -2.790    7  2.768    7 -2.413    7 -2.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.561 -2.279 -2.776
Manor                    2  0  0  198  141 -3.632    8  2.715    8 -2.484    8 -2.559    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.666 -1.860 -3.258
Golden St Baptist        6 18  0 1427 1909 -2.201    9  2.492    9 -2.769   15 -3.032    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.418 -3.363 -2.700
Penn St-DuBois          12 14  0 1906 1989 -2.739   10  2.398   10 -2.868   10 -2.832    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.589 -2.466 -3.199
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Andrews                  3 14  0 1119 1429 -2.011   11  2.345   11 -2.929   14 -3.027    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -2.837 -3.218
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 13  0 1678 1655 -2.665   12  2.289   12 -2.999    9 -2.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.556 -2.512 -2.962
Ohio St-Marion           4 20  0 1760 2227 -1.941   13  2.173   13 -3.097   11 -2.839    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.715 -1.922 -3.757
Central Maine CC         8 10  0 1265 1232 -3.012   14  2.101   14 -3.189   13 -3.022    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.427 -3.317 -2.727
Maine-Augusta            9 12  0 1474 1480 -3.154   15  2.003   15 -3.321   17 -3.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.488 -3.527 -3.418
Penn St-Beaver           7 17  0 1678 1810 -2.697   16  1.904   16 -3.475   12 -2.968    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.497 -2.985 -2.950
Penn St-Fayette          5 19  0 1626 2060 -2.951   17  1.611   17 -3.786   18 -3.639    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.615 -3.164 -4.114
Talladega                0  2  0  130  203 -3.189   18  1.418   18 -4.007   21 -4.536    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -4.123 -4.949
Christendom              7  9  0 1043 1068 -3.930   19  1.407   19 -4.044   19 -4.100    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -4.679 -3.520
Warren Wilson            4 13  0 1049 1223 -2.848   20  1.402   20 -4.053   16 -3.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.320 -4.130 -2.724
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny    2 22  0 1369 2022 -3.246   21  1.172   21 -4.560   20 -4.315    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.412 -4.668 -3.962
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     0  3  0  190  284 -4.713   22  0.889   22 -5.177   23 -5.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.515 -5.904 -6.018
Unity                    0 20  0 1055 1771 -3.438   23  0.796   23 -5.432   22 -5.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -6.155 -5.538


USCAA-II: strength=-3.039 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Taylor-Fort Wayne       16  8  0 1938 1811 -1.838    1  3.708    1 -1.395    3 -1.657    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -1.142 -2.173
Williamson Trade         9  6  0 1033  904 -1.617    2  3.577    2 -1.537    1 -1.297    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.226 -2.343 -0.252
Manor                    2  0  0  198  141 -3.632    8  2.715    8 -2.484    8 -2.559    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.666 -1.860 -3.258
Andrews                  3 14  0 1119 1429 -2.011   11  2.345   11 -2.929   14 -3.027    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -2.837 -3.218
Ohio St-Marion           4 20  0 1760 2227 -1.941   13  2.173   13 -3.097   11 -2.839    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.715 -1.922 -3.757
Vermont Tech             6 24  0 2104 2322 -3.083       1.683      -3.703      -3.333      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.536 -3.189 -3.476
Talladega                0  2  0  130  203 -3.189   18  1.418   18 -4.007   21 -4.536    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -4.123 -4.949
Warren Wilson            4 13  0 1049 1223 -2.848   20  1.402   20 -4.053   16 -3.427    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.320 -4.130 -2.724
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     0  3  0  190  284 -4.713   22  0.889   22 -5.177   23 -5.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.515 -5.904 -6.018

USCAA-II-Yankee: strength=-3.037 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Hesser                  13  5  0 1389 1238 -2.779    5  2.973    5 -2.182    5 -2.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -2.304 -2.684
New Hampshire Tech      16  5  0 1526 1387 -2.977    6  2.920    6 -2.247    6 -2.517    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.432 -2.796 -2.239
Southern Maine CC       15  8  0 1803 1643 -2.790    7  2.768    7 -2.413    7 -2.528    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.561 -2.279 -2.776
Central Maine CC         8 10  0 1265 1232 -3.012   14  2.101   14 -3.189   13 -3.022    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.427 -3.317 -2.727
Maine-Augusta            9 12  0 1474 1480 -3.154   15  2.003   15 -3.321   17 -3.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.488 -3.527 -3.418
Unity                    0 20  0 1055 1771 -3.438   23  0.796   23 -5.432   22 -5.847    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -6.155 -5.538

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
USCAA-II-Yankee             61  60   0 0.504    1 -3.037
USCAA-II                    44  90   0 0.328    2 -3.039

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:55 2008

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