Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Central Maine CC        16  6 1714 1520 -2.724    7  3.280    7 -2.056    8 -2.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.562 -2.201 -2.744
Southern Maine CC       12  9 1941 1682 -2.682   13  2.584   13 -2.684    7 -2.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.874 -0.566 -3.927
New Hampshire Tech      19  7 2064 1661 -2.587    6  3.317    6 -2.014    6 -1.943    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -1.996 -1.889
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -3.062   16  1.964   16 -3.237   18 -3.306    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.466 -3.430 -3.183
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.195   26  0.991   26 -4.992   27 -5.057    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.376 -4.738
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.801   30  0.485   30 -6.419   30 -7.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.970 -9.152 -5.418
Ohio St-Marion           1 29 1757 2734 -3.180   28  0.948   28 -5.096   25 -4.574    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -4.584 -4.565
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.164    9  2.974    9 -2.354   11 -2.701    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.000 -4.474 -0.928
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.907   18  1.886   18 -3.371   17 -3.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.316 -3.914 -2.509
Hesser                   6 15 1503 1579 -2.294   15  2.220   15 -2.998    9 -2.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -2.629 -2.484
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Christendom              3 12  867 1080 -4.643   29  0.771   29 -5.604   26 -5.033    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.373 -5.520 -4.546
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.861   17  1.894   17 -3.361   13 -2.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -2.883 -2.797
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 13 1814 1921 -2.861   12  2.597   12 -2.670   14 -2.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -3.501 -2.377
World Harvest Bible     17  5 1709 1445 -1.579    2  4.750    2 -0.796    3 -1.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.409 -1.443 -0.741
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.299   21  1.566   21 -3.896   28 -5.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.449 -5.362 -4.980
Cincinnati-Clermont     26  7 2886 2329 -1.421    1  4.946    1 -0.638    1 -0.763    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.620 -0.247 -1.280
Maine-Augusta           15 13 2160 2088 -2.442    8  2.984    8 -2.346   10 -2.561    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -2.026 -3.096
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  3  361  435 -5.330   27  0.971   27 -5.054   29 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.647 -5.222 -6.492
Penn St-Fayette          7 17 1605 1994 -2.978   19  1.850   19 -3.421   20 -3.674    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -3.364 -3.983
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.303   23  1.276   23 -4.538   21 -4.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541 -3.953 -4.313
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Beaver          16  9 1851 1582 -1.904    5  3.517    5 -1.802    4 -1.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.430 -1.664 -1.128
Williamson Trade         7  4  681  571 -1.447    3  4.064    3 -1.299    2 -1.083    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.153 -2.363  0.197
Penn St-DuBois          16  7 1777 1599 -2.246    4  3.637    4 -1.719    5 -1.898    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -1.662 -2.134
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.799   10  2.962   10 -2.368   16 -3.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -3.120 -3.203
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.631   14  2.402   14 -2.813   15 -3.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -3.247 -2.755
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.958   20  1.639   20 -3.784   19 -3.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.504 -3.293
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.294   22  1.475   22 -4.110   22 -4.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.253 -4.334
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.657   11  2.944   11 -2.389   12 -2.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.932 -3.712
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.210   24  1.085   24 -4.802   23 -4.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.397 -4.747 -3.959
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 16 1094 1392 -3.365   25  1.001   25 -4.974   24 -4.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -4.304 -4.518


USCAA-II: strength=-2.993 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -3.062   16  1.964   16 -3.237   18 -3.306    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.466 -3.430 -3.183
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.164    9  2.974    9 -2.354   11 -2.701    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.000 -4.474 -0.928
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  3  361  435 -5.330   27  0.971   27 -5.054   29 -5.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.647 -5.222 -6.492
Williamson Trade         7  4  681  571 -1.447    3  4.064    3 -1.299    2 -1.083    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.153 -2.363  0.197
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 16 1800 2029 -2.861       2.622      -2.639      -3.021      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587 -2.645 -3.397
Vermont Tech            15 18 2434 2344 -2.656       2.554      -2.672      -2.609      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.439 -2.840 -2.379

Ohio CAC: strength=-2.940 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ohio St-Marion           1 29 1757 2734 -3.180   28  0.948   28 -5.096   25 -4.574    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -4.584 -4.565
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.907   18  1.886   18 -3.371   17 -3.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.316 -3.914 -2.509
World Harvest Bible     17  5 1709 1445 -1.579    2  4.750    2 -0.796    3 -1.092    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.409 -1.443 -0.741
Southern St OH           6 11 1571 1676 -2.417       2.500      -2.734      -2.718      0.0000      0.0000           0  4.013 -0.346 -5.090

Penn St UAC: strength=-3.306 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.861   17  1.894   17 -3.361   13 -2.840    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -2.883 -2.797
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 13 1814 1921 -2.861   12  2.597   12 -2.670   14 -2.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -3.501 -2.377
Penn St-Fayette          7 17 1605 1994 -2.978   19  1.850   19 -3.421   20 -3.674    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -3.364 -3.983
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.303   23  1.276   23 -4.538   21 -4.133    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541 -3.953 -4.313
Penn St-Beaver          16  9 1851 1582 -1.904    5  3.517    5 -1.802    4 -1.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.430 -1.664 -1.128
Penn St-DuBois          16  7 1777 1599 -2.246    4  3.637    4 -1.719    5 -1.898    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -1.662 -2.134
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.799   10  2.962   10 -2.368   16 -3.161    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -3.120 -3.203
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.631   14  2.402   14 -2.813   15 -3.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -3.247 -2.755
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.958   20  1.639   20 -3.784   19 -3.399    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.504 -3.293
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.294   22  1.475   22 -4.110   22 -4.293    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.253 -4.334
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.657   11  2.944   11 -2.389   12 -2.822    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.932 -3.712
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.210   24  1.085   24 -4.802   23 -4.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.397 -4.747 -3.959
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 16 1094 1392 -3.365   25  1.001   25 -4.974   24 -4.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -4.304 -4.518

USCAA-II-Yankee: strength=-3.172 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Central Maine CC        16  6 1714 1520 -2.724    7  3.280    7 -2.056    8 -2.473    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.562 -2.201 -2.744
Southern Maine CC       12  9 1941 1682 -2.682   13  2.584   13 -2.684    7 -2.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.874 -0.566 -3.927
New Hampshire Tech      19  7 2064 1661 -2.587    6  3.317    6 -2.014    6 -1.943    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -1.996 -1.889
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.195   26  0.991   26 -4.992   27 -5.057    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.376 -4.738
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.801   30  0.485   30 -6.419   30 -7.285    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.970 -9.152 -5.418
Hesser                   6 15 1503 1579 -2.294   15  2.220   15 -2.998    9 -2.556    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -2.629 -2.484
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.299   21  1.566   21 -3.896   28 -5.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.449 -5.362 -4.980
Maine-Augusta           15 13 2160 2088 -2.442    8  2.984    8 -2.346   10 -2.561    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -2.026 -3.096

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio CAC                   29  54 0.349    1 -2.940
USCAA-II                   52  66 0.441    2 -2.993
USCAA-II-Yankee            70  78 0.473    3 -3.172
Penn St UAC               109 182 0.375    4 -3.306

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:33 2010

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