Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cincinnati-Clermont     26  7 2886 2329 -1.396    1  5.071    1 -0.613    1 -0.727    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.620 -0.211 -1.243
World Harvest Bible     17  5 1709 1445 -1.553    2  4.859    2 -0.769    3 -1.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.408 -1.404 -0.702
Williamson Trade         7  4  681  571 -1.415    3  4.184    3 -1.266    2 -1.025    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.153 -2.305  0.254
Penn St-DuBois          16  7 1777 1599 -2.214    4  3.736    4 -1.687    5 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -1.621 -2.094
Penn St-Beaver          16  9 1851 1582 -1.874    5  3.630    5 -1.770    4 -1.355    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.429 -1.626 -1.085
New Hampshire Tech      19  7 2064 1661 -2.559    6  3.403    6 -1.983    6 -1.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -1.959 -1.853
Central Maine CC        16  6 1714 1520 -2.696    7  3.365    7 -2.027    8 -2.439    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.563 -2.167 -2.711
Maine-Augusta           15 13 2160 2088 -2.414    8  3.112    8 -2.319   10 -2.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -1.993 -3.065
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.140    9  3.068    9 -2.332   11 -2.669    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.999 -4.445 -0.892
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.766   10  3.067   10 -2.335   16 -3.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -3.086 -3.172
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.621   11  3.051   11 -2.355   12 -2.784    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.894 -3.674
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 13 1814 1921 -2.825   12  2.629   12 -2.635   14 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -3.465 -2.341
Southern Maine CC       12  9 1941 1682 -2.654   13  2.610   13 -2.657    7 -2.210    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.874 -0.529 -3.891
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.588   14  2.445   14 -2.771   15 -2.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -3.198 -2.708
Hesser                   6 15 1503 1579 -2.266   15  2.170   15 -2.968    9 -2.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -2.596 -2.447
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -3.050   16  1.974   16 -3.224   18 -3.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.465 -3.421 -3.164
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.821   17  1.913   17 -3.324   13 -2.797    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.487 -2.838 -2.756
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.880   18  1.900   18 -3.343   17 -3.182    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.316 -3.885 -2.479
Penn St-Fayette          7 17 1605 1994 -2.942   19  1.869   19 -3.388   20 -3.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -3.330 -3.951
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.921   20  1.586   20 -3.744   19 -3.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.468 -3.257
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.274   21  1.501   21 -3.868   28 -5.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.449 -5.529 -5.147
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.256   22  1.410   22 -4.074   22 -4.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.226 -4.306
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.262   23  1.181   23 -4.497   21 -4.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541 -3.913 -4.273
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.170   24  1.020   24 -4.763   23 -4.316    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.397 -4.711 -3.922
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 16 1094 1392 -3.328   25  0.969   25 -4.937   24 -4.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -4.273 -4.488
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.167   26  0.958   26 -4.965   27 -5.044    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.363 -4.725
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  3  361  435 -5.335   27  0.927   27 -5.053   29 -5.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.648 -5.286 -6.558
Ohio St-Marion           1 29 1757 2734 -3.154   28  0.913   28 -5.070   25 -4.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -4.564 -4.545
Christendom              3 12  867 1080 -4.610   29  0.742   29 -5.572   26 -5.016    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.373 -5.504 -4.528
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.773   30  0.481   30 -6.392   30 -7.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.969 -9.166 -5.432


USCAA-II: strength=-2.966 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Williamson Trade         7  4  681  571 -1.415    3  4.184    3 -1.266    2 -1.025    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.153 -2.305  0.254
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.140    9  3.068    9 -2.332   11 -2.669    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.999 -4.445 -0.892
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 16 1800 2029 -2.823       2.655      -2.602      -3.020      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587 -2.644 -3.396
Vermont Tech            15 18 2434 2344 -2.629       2.578      -2.647      -2.605      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.439 -2.835 -2.375
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -3.050   16  1.974   16 -3.224   18 -3.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.465 -3.421 -3.164
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  3  361  435 -5.335   27  0.927   27 -5.053   29 -5.922    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.648 -5.286 -6.558

Ohio CAC: strength=-2.913 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
World Harvest Bible     17  5 1709 1445 -1.553    2  4.859    2 -0.769    3 -1.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.408 -1.404 -0.702
Southern St OH           6 11 1571 1676 -2.391       2.531      -2.707      -2.706      0.0000      0.0000           0  4.012 -0.337 -5.076
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.880   18  1.900   18 -3.343   17 -3.182    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.316 -3.885 -2.479
Ohio St-Marion           1 29 1757 2734 -3.154   28  0.913   28 -5.070   25 -4.554    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -4.564 -4.545

Penn St UAC: strength=-3.269 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-DuBois          16  7 1777 1599 -2.214    4  3.736    4 -1.687    5 -1.857    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -1.621 -2.094
Penn St-Beaver          16  9 1851 1582 -1.874    5  3.630    5 -1.770    4 -1.355    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.429 -1.626 -1.085
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.766   10  3.067   10 -2.335   16 -3.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -3.086 -3.172
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.621   11  3.051   11 -2.355   12 -2.784    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.894 -3.674
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    15 13 1814 1921 -2.825   12  2.629   12 -2.635   14 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -3.465 -2.341
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.588   14  2.445   14 -2.771   15 -2.953    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -3.198 -2.708
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.821   17  1.913   17 -3.324   13 -2.797    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.487 -2.838 -2.756
Penn St-Fayette          7 17 1605 1994 -2.942   19  1.869   19 -3.388   20 -3.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.572 -3.330 -3.951
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.921   20  1.586   20 -3.744   19 -3.363    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.468 -3.257
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.256   22  1.410   22 -4.074   22 -4.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.226 -4.306
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.262   23  1.181   23 -4.497   21 -4.093    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541 -3.913 -4.273
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.170   24  1.020   24 -4.763   23 -4.316    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.397 -4.711 -3.922
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 16 1094 1392 -3.328   25  0.969   25 -4.937   24 -4.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -4.273 -4.488

USCAA-II-Yankee: strength=-3.143 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
New Hampshire Tech      19  7 2064 1661 -2.559    6  3.403    6 -1.983    6 -1.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -1.959 -1.853
Central Maine CC        16  6 1714 1520 -2.696    7  3.365    7 -2.027    8 -2.439    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.563 -2.167 -2.711
Maine-Augusta           15 13 2160 2088 -2.414    8  3.112    8 -2.319   10 -2.529    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.624 -1.993 -3.065
Southern Maine CC       12  9 1941 1682 -2.654   13  2.610   13 -2.657    7 -2.210    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.874 -0.529 -3.891
Hesser                   6 15 1503 1579 -2.266   15  2.170   15 -2.968    9 -2.522    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -2.596 -2.447
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.274   21  1.501   21 -3.868   28 -5.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.449 -5.529 -5.147
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.167   26  0.958   26 -4.965   27 -5.044    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.363 -4.725
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.773   30  0.481   30 -6.392   30 -7.299    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.969 -9.166 -5.432

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio CAC                   29  54 0.349    1 -2.913
USCAA-II                   52  66 0.441    2 -2.966
USCAA-II-Yankee            70  78 0.473    3 -3.143
Penn St UAC               109 182 0.375    4 -3.269

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Mar 17 13:06:17 2010

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