Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cincinnati-Clermont     24  6 2673 2141 -1.324    1  4.830    1 -0.480    1 -0.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.644 -0.016 -1.250
Williamson Trade         5  3  492  404 -1.262    2  3.889    2 -1.236    2 -0.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.169 -2.142  0.312
World Harvest Bible     12  6 1417 1223 -1.658    3  3.741    3 -1.385    4 -1.300    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.421 -1.606 -0.994
Penn St-Beaver          16  7 1736 1464 -1.807    4  3.679    4 -1.451    3 -1.192    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.443 -1.408 -0.976
Penn St-DuBois          15  5 1583 1386 -2.322    5  3.501    5 -1.631    5 -1.828    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.565 -1.550 -2.107
Central Maine CC        15  4 1501 1314 -2.770    6  3.241    6 -1.847   10 -2.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.579 -2.205 -2.878
New Hampshire Tech      16  6 1745 1391 -2.566    7  3.095    7 -2.009    6 -1.992    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.474 -2.086 -1.899
Maine-Augusta           14 11 1954 1854 -2.429    8  2.860    8 -2.279    9 -2.468    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -1.979 -2.956
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.095    9  2.852    9 -2.288   11 -2.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.997 -4.404 -0.832
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.729   10  2.844   10 -2.298   16 -3.087    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -3.042 -3.132
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.599   11  2.813   11 -2.336   13 -2.758    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.870 -3.646
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.556   12  2.309   12 -2.736   14 -2.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -3.167 -2.670
Southern Maine CC       11  9 1851 1601 -2.664   13  2.302   13 -2.747    7 -2.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.873 -0.562 -3.910
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    13 11 1562 1654 -2.922   14  2.296   14 -2.755   15 -2.989    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.364 -3.511 -2.467
Hesser                   6 14 1437 1496 -2.245   15  2.177   15 -2.919    8 -2.422    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -2.500 -2.345
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -2.997   16  1.908   16 -3.170   18 -3.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.465 -3.371 -3.111
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.791   17  1.826   17 -3.296   12 -2.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -2.802 -2.707
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.840   18  1.824   18 -3.296   17 -3.148    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.310 -3.874 -2.422
Penn St-Fayette          6 15 1381 1743 -2.879   19  1.791   19 -3.345   20 -3.627    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.550 -3.411 -3.843
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.893   20  1.462   20 -3.715   19 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.438 -3.226
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.234   21  1.418   21 -3.822   28 -5.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -5.600 -5.216
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.222   22  1.326   22 -4.040   22 -4.225    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.506 -4.189 -4.261
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.229   23  1.123   23 -4.465   21 -4.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.540 -3.882 -4.229
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.132   24  1.004   24 -4.723   23 -4.279    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.396 -4.679 -3.879
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  2  317  352 -5.364   25  0.936   26 -4.876   29 -5.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.732 -4.458 -6.475
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 15 1017 1301 -3.294   26  0.932   25 -4.869   24 -4.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.310 -4.387
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.159   27  0.909   27 -4.941   27 -5.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.364 -4.727
Ohio St-Marion           1 28 1709 2677 -3.121   28  0.890   28 -5.005   25 -4.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.514 -4.475 -4.609
Christendom              3 11  802 1014 -4.524   29  0.793   29 -5.355   26 -4.975    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.365 -5.496 -4.455
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.776   30  0.484   30 -6.362   30 -7.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.970 -9.191 -5.457


USCAA-II: strength=-2.914 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Williamson Trade         5  3  492  404 -1.262    2  3.889    2 -1.236    2 -0.915    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.169 -2.142  0.312
Andrews                  8 12 1032 1202 -2.095    9  2.852    9 -2.288   11 -2.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.997 -4.404 -0.832
St Joseph's-Brooklyn     9 16 1722 1965 -2.699       2.483      -2.557      -2.968      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587 -2.597 -3.339
Vermont Tech            15 17 2353 2254 -2.609       2.464      -2.584      -2.570      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.438 -2.808 -2.331
Warren Wilson           10 13 1659 1738 -2.997   16  1.908   16 -3.170   18 -3.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.465 -3.371 -3.111
Neb Coll of Tech Agr     2  2  317  352 -5.364   25  0.936   26 -4.876   29 -5.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.732 -4.458 -6.475

Ohio CAC: strength=-2.894 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
World Harvest Bible     12  6 1417 1223 -1.658    3  3.741    3 -1.385    4 -1.300    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.421 -1.606 -0.994
Southern St OH           6 11 1571 1676 -2.344       2.403      -2.654      -2.680      0.0000      0.0000           0  4.008 -0.336 -5.024
Clark St CC              5  9  959 1007 -2.840   18  1.824   18 -3.296   17 -3.148    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.310 -3.874 -2.422
Ohio St-Marion           1 28 1709 2677 -3.121   28  0.890   28 -5.005   25 -4.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.514 -4.475 -4.609

Penn St UAC: strength=-3.240 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Beaver          16  7 1736 1464 -1.807    4  3.679    4 -1.451    3 -1.192    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.443 -1.408 -0.976
Penn St-DuBois          15  5 1583 1386 -2.322    5  3.501    5 -1.631    5 -1.828    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.565 -1.550 -2.107
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny   11 10 1400 1632 -2.729   10  2.844   10 -2.298   16 -3.087    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -3.042 -3.132
Penn Tech               13 12 1937 2073 -2.599   11  2.813   11 -2.336   13 -2.758    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.705 -1.870 -3.646
Penn St-York             9 15 1579 1721 -2.556   12  2.309   12 -2.736   14 -2.918    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -3.167 -2.670
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre    13 11 1562 1654 -2.922   14  2.296   14 -2.755   15 -2.989    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.364 -3.511 -2.467
Penn St-Schuylkill       8 13 1463 1546 -2.791   17  1.826   17 -3.296   12 -2.755    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -2.802 -2.707
Penn St-Fayette          6 15 1381 1743 -2.879   19  1.791   19 -3.345   20 -3.627    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.550 -3.411 -3.843
Penn St-Hazleton         6 17 1531 1714 -2.893   20  1.462   20 -3.715   19 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471 -3.438 -3.226
Penn St-New Kensington   4 18 1379 1815 -3.222   22  1.326   22 -4.040   22 -4.225    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.506 -4.189 -4.261
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 14 1039 1320 -3.229   23  1.123   23 -4.465   21 -4.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.540 -3.882 -4.229
Penn St-Brandywine       1 21 1270 1756 -3.132   24  1.004   24 -4.723   23 -4.279    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.396 -4.679 -3.879
Penn St-Worth Scranton   1 15 1017 1301 -3.294   26  0.932   25 -4.869   24 -4.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -4.310 -4.387

USCAA-II-Yankee: strength=-3.138 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Central Maine CC        15  4 1501 1314 -2.770    6  3.241    6 -1.847   10 -2.541    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.579 -2.205 -2.878
New Hampshire Tech      16  6 1745 1391 -2.566    7  3.095    7 -2.009    6 -1.992    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.474 -2.086 -1.899
Maine-Augusta           14 11 1954 1854 -2.429    8  2.860    8 -2.279    9 -2.468    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -1.979 -2.956
Southern Maine CC       11  9 1851 1601 -2.664   13  2.302   13 -2.747    7 -2.236    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.873 -0.562 -3.910
Hesser                   6 14 1437 1496 -2.245   15  2.177   15 -2.919    8 -2.422    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -2.500 -2.345
Northern Maine CC        0  1   42  113 -1.234   21  1.418   21 -3.822   28 -5.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -5.600 -5.216
Eastern Maine CC         2 13  868 1239 -4.159   27  0.909   27 -4.941   27 -5.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.417 -5.364 -4.727
Unity                    0 14  485 1204 -4.776   30  0.484   30 -6.362   30 -7.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  2.970 -9.191 -5.457

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio CAC                   24  54 0.308    1 -2.894
USCAA-II                   49  63 0.438    2 -2.914
USCAA-II-Yankee            64  72 0.471    3 -3.138
Penn St UAC               105 173 0.378    4 -3.240

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.279 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sat Mar  6 17:19:41 2010

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.