Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  1  0 2723 2012 -0.452    1  6.733    1  1.048    1  0.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.454  0.621  1.003
Acadia                  26  5  0 2602 2075 -0.665    2  5.619    2  0.192    2  0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539  0.438  0.128
Brandon                 27  6  0 2846 2423 -0.619    3  5.618    3  0.191    3  0.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.652  0.789 -0.490
Calgary                 22  7  0 2555 2237 -0.582    4  5.447    4  0.045    5 -0.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.688  0.752 -0.844
UBC                     26  7  0 2754 2471 -0.803    5  5.349    5 -0.043    8 -0.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.637  0.242 -0.902
St Mary's NS            26 10  0 2902 2670 -0.727    6  5.314    6 -0.070   17 -0.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -0.177 -0.999
Toronto                 24  8  0 2494 2212 -0.771    7  5.241    7 -0.134   15 -0.464    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -0.391 -0.536
Alberta                 23 13  0 2918 2683 -0.423    8  5.238    8 -0.135    7 -0.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.569  0.032 -0.526
Windsor                 22  8  0 2417 2112 -0.681    9  5.217    9 -0.151    6 -0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.555  0.033 -0.409
Laval                   21  9  0 2432 2140 -0.595   10  5.167   10 -0.175    4  0.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548  0.318 -0.068
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ottawa ON               22 10  0 2413 2157 -0.671   11  5.107   11 -0.233   11 -0.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -0.528 -0.191
Brock                   24 13  0 2889 2743 -0.643   12  5.076   12 -0.256   14 -0.429    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576 -0.117 -0.741
St Francis Xavier       21 10  0 2451 2216 -0.719   13  5.048   13 -0.282   13 -0.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.544 -0.238 -0.595
UCCB                    20 10  0 2390 2120 -0.719   14  4.929   14 -0.347    9 -0.356    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.536 -0.214 -0.497
Concordia QC            14  9  0 1792 1741 -0.701   15  4.800   15 -0.455   20 -0.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.574 -0.368 -0.973
Queen's ON              18 10  0 2011 1843 -0.852   16  4.742   16 -0.513   19 -0.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.387 -1.113 -0.211
Saskatchewan            19 13  0 2651 2457 -0.696   17  4.714   17 -0.535   10 -0.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.113 -0.832
Guelph                  19 12  0 2389 2275 -0.832   19  4.676   18 -0.555   21 -0.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.556 -0.504 -0.959
Western ON              20 13  0 2670 2492 -0.735   18  4.687   19 -0.559   12 -0.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.631  0.136 -0.953
McGill                  13 12  0 1914 1961 -0.731   20  4.583   20 -0.634   27 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602 -0.683 -1.521
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Victoria                17 16  0 2284 2223 -0.702   21  4.530   21 -0.680   18 -0.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.322 -1.288  0.106
Dalhousie               16 15  0 2397 2370 -0.858   22  4.362   22 -0.827   23 -0.909    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.585 -0.561 -1.258
Regina                  15 15  0 2283 2274 -0.845   23  4.330   23 -0.843   22 -0.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.526 -0.765 -0.967
UQAM                     9 12  0 1646 1665 -0.636   24  4.304   24 -0.865   16 -0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.627 -0.041 -1.097
McMaster                14 17  0 2276 2333 -0.890   25  4.177   25 -0.970   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.886 -1.101
Simon Fraser            13 17  0 2235 2259 -0.859   26  4.057   26 -1.075   24 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.511 -0.901 -0.980
Winnipeg                11 18  0 2158 2319 -0.849   27  3.959   27 -1.139   31 -1.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.571 -0.967 -1.543
Fraser Valley           12 16  0 2087 2194 -0.991   28  3.951   28 -1.147   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548 -0.938 -1.322
Lakehead                10 18  0 2085 2199 -0.976   29  3.769   29 -1.336   32 -1.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583 -0.939 -1.621
Bishop's                 6 18  0 1746 1877 -0.682   30  3.761   30 -1.343   29 -1.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534 -1.015 -1.288
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Laurier                 10 19  0 2138 2148 -1.008   31  3.628   31 -1.477   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -0.986 -1.124
Trinity Western          7 18  0 1854 2171 -1.068   32  3.592   32 -1.519   37 -1.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.651 -1.177 -2.445
Manitoba                 7 22  0 2117 2305 -0.893   33  3.544   33 -1.571   30 -1.234    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -1.085 -1.383
Waterloo                 7 21  0 1969 2177 -0.963   34  3.514   34 -1.602   34 -1.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -1.359 -1.523
Ryerson                  8 21  0 2137 2357 -1.065   35  3.464   35 -1.653   36 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.621 -1.065 -2.074
York ON                  8 22  0 2211 2390 -1.051   36  3.449   36 -1.669   33 -1.336    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -0.870 -1.802
UPEI                     8 24  0 2298 2513 -1.082   37  3.309   37 -1.801   35 -1.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -1.355 -1.651
Thompson Rivers          4 23  0 2086 2482 -1.150   38  3.087   38 -2.046   39 -1.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -0.803 -3.067
Lethbridge U.            3 25  0 2050 2547 -0.965   39  3.071   39 -2.061   38 -1.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.656 -1.218 -2.527
Laurentian               5 23  0 1954 2421 -1.586   40  2.929   40 -2.232   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.632 -1.801 -2.902
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UNB                      4 24  0 1971 2399 -1.599   41  2.614   41 -2.593   40 -2.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.609 -1.774 -2.674
Memorial                 1 28  0 1793 2653 -1.513   42  2.457   42 -2.795   42 -3.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.542 -2.935 -3.268
RMC                      0 26  0 1315 2309 -2.009   43  1.976   43 -3.363   43 -4.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.345 -4.612 -3.388


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.982 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Acadia                  26  5  0 2602 2075 -0.665    2  5.619    2  0.192    2  0.283    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539  0.438  0.128
St Mary's NS            26 10  0 2902 2670 -0.727    6  5.314    6 -0.070   17 -0.588    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -0.177 -0.999
St Francis Xavier       21 10  0 2451 2216 -0.719   13  5.048   13 -0.282   13 -0.416    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.544 -0.238 -0.595
UCCB                    20 10  0 2390 2120 -0.719   14  4.929   14 -0.347    9 -0.356    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.536 -0.214 -0.497
Dalhousie               16 15  0 2397 2370 -0.858   22  4.362   22 -0.827   23 -0.909    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.585 -0.561 -1.258
UPEI                     8 24  0 2298 2513 -1.082   37  3.309   37 -1.801   35 -1.503    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -1.355 -1.651
UNB                      4 24  0 1971 2399 -1.599   41  2.614   41 -2.593   40 -2.224    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.609 -1.774 -2.674
Memorial                 1 28  0 1793 2653 -1.513   42  2.457   42 -2.795   42 -3.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.542 -2.935 -3.268

CIS-Canada West: strength=-0.883 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Brandon                 27  6  0 2846 2423 -0.619    3  5.618    3  0.191    3  0.150    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.652  0.789 -0.490
Calgary                 22  7  0 2555 2237 -0.582    4  5.447    4  0.045    5 -0.046    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.688  0.752 -0.844
UBC                     26  7  0 2754 2471 -0.803    5  5.349    5 -0.043    8 -0.330    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.637  0.242 -0.902
Alberta                 23 13  0 2918 2683 -0.423    8  5.238    8 -0.135    7 -0.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.569  0.032 -0.526
Saskatchewan            19 13  0 2651 2457 -0.696   17  4.714   17 -0.535   10 -0.359    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.113 -0.832
Victoria                17 16  0 2284 2223 -0.702   21  4.530   21 -0.680   18 -0.591    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.322 -1.288  0.106
Regina                  15 15  0 2283 2274 -0.845   23  4.330   23 -0.843   22 -0.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.526 -0.765 -0.967
Simon Fraser            13 17  0 2235 2259 -0.859   26  4.057   26 -1.075   24 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.511 -0.901 -0.980
Winnipeg                11 18  0 2158 2319 -0.849   27  3.959   27 -1.139   31 -1.255    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.571 -0.967 -1.543
Fraser Valley           12 16  0 2087 2194 -0.991   28  3.951   28 -1.147   28 -1.130    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548 -0.938 -1.322
Trinity Western          7 18  0 1854 2171 -1.068   32  3.592   32 -1.519   37 -1.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.651 -1.177 -2.445
Manitoba                 7 22  0 2117 2305 -0.893   33  3.544   33 -1.571   30 -1.234    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -1.085 -1.383
Thompson Rivers          4 23  0 2086 2482 -1.150   38  3.087   38 -2.046   39 -1.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.762 -0.803 -3.067
Lethbridge U.            3 25  0 2050 2547 -0.965   39  3.071   39 -2.061   38 -1.872    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.656 -1.218 -2.527

CIS-OUA: strength=-0.925 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  1  0 2723 2012 -0.452    1  6.733    1  1.048    1  0.812    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.454  0.621  1.003
Toronto                 24  8  0 2494 2212 -0.771    7  5.241    7 -0.134   15 -0.464    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -0.391 -0.536
Windsor                 22  8  0 2417 2112 -0.681    9  5.217    9 -0.151    6 -0.188    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.555  0.033 -0.409
Ottawa ON               22 10  0 2413 2157 -0.671   11  5.107   11 -0.233   11 -0.360    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -0.528 -0.191
Brock                   24 13  0 2889 2743 -0.643   12  5.076   12 -0.256   14 -0.429    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576 -0.117 -0.741
Queen's ON              18 10  0 2011 1843 -0.852   16  4.742   16 -0.513   19 -0.662    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.387 -1.113 -0.211
Guelph                  19 12  0 2389 2275 -0.832   19  4.676   18 -0.555   21 -0.732    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.556 -0.504 -0.959
Western ON              20 13  0 2670 2492 -0.735   18  4.687   19 -0.559   12 -0.409    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.631  0.136 -0.953
McMaster                14 17  0 2276 2333 -0.890   25  4.177   25 -0.970   25 -0.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.886 -1.101
Lakehead                10 18  0 2085 2199 -0.976   29  3.769   29 -1.336   32 -1.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583 -0.939 -1.621
Laurier                 10 19  0 2138 2148 -1.008   31  3.628   31 -1.477   26 -1.055    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -0.986 -1.124
Waterloo                 7 21  0 1969 2177 -0.963   34  3.514   34 -1.602   34 -1.441    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -1.359 -1.523
Ryerson                  8 21  0 2137 2357 -1.065   35  3.464   35 -1.653   36 -1.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.621 -1.065 -2.074
York ON                  8 22  0 2211 2390 -1.051   36  3.449   36 -1.669   33 -1.336    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -0.870 -1.802
Laurentian               5 23  0 1954 2421 -1.586   40  2.929   40 -2.232   41 -2.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.632 -1.801 -2.902
RMC                      0 26  0 1315 2309 -2.009   43  1.976   43 -3.363   43 -4.000    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.345 -4.612 -3.388

QSSF: strength=-0.640 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Laval                   21  9  0 2432 2140 -0.595   10  5.167   10 -0.175    4  0.125    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548  0.318 -0.068
Concordia QC            14  9  0 1792 1741 -0.701   15  4.800   15 -0.455   20 -0.671    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.574 -0.368 -0.973
McGill                  13 12  0 1914 1961 -0.731   20  4.583   20 -0.634   27 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602 -0.683 -1.521
UQAM                     9 12  0 1646 1665 -0.636   24  4.304   24 -0.865   16 -0.569    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.627 -0.041 -1.097
Bishop's                 6 18  0 1746 1877 -0.682   30  3.761   30 -1.343   29 -1.152    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534 -1.015 -1.288

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
QSSF                        63  60   0 0.512    1 -0.640
CIS-Canada West            206 216   0 0.488    2 -0.883
CIS-OUA                    243 242   0 0.501    3 -0.925
CIS-Atlantic               122 126   0 0.492    4 -0.982

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:54 2008

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