Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  5 3156 2401  0.321    1  7.374    1  1.179    1  1.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524  1.366  1.147
UBC                     25  5 2475 2123  0.266    2  7.307    2  1.131    2  1.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576  1.397  0.741
Saskatchewan            26  8 3035 2600  0.193    3  6.913    3  0.811    3  1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.720  1.995  0.084
UCCB                    29  4 3024 2430 -0.355    4  6.785    4  0.703    4  0.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.732  1.623 -0.404
Calgary                 23  9 2578 2294  0.129    5  6.648    5  0.626    7  0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.553  0.739  0.280
Windsor                 23 12 2719 2602  0.244    6  6.624    6  0.617    8  0.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.591  0.843  0.056
Lakehead                25  8 2467 2287 -0.069    7  6.591    7  0.605   10  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471  0.100  0.305
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.386    8  6.564    8  0.581    9  0.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.503 -0.080
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.067    9  6.420    9  0.470    5  0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604  1.045  0.149
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.051   10  6.392   10  0.444    6  0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.862  0.280
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.105   11  6.217   11  0.352   14  0.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.535  0.183 -0.128
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.199   12  5.962   13  0.133   11  0.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541  0.333 -0.031
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.002   13  5.941   12  0.140   12  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.569  0.377 -0.218
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.127   14  5.907   14  0.114   17 -0.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.136 -0.121
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.437   15  5.797   15  0.013   22 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.348 -0.854  0.309
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.127   16  5.622   16 -0.101   18 -0.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612  0.249 -0.713
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.430   17  5.606   17 -0.116   27 -0.578    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -0.820 -0.336
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.109   18  5.458   18 -0.203   20 -0.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.425 -0.546  0.029
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030 -0.016   19  5.448   19 -0.212   16 -0.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -0.658  0.430
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.040   20  5.417   20 -0.244   15 -0.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -0.050 -0.130
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.487   21  5.402   21 -0.257   21 -0.270    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.555 -0.032 -0.508
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.127   22  5.401   22 -0.259   19 -0.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.317 -0.831
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.233   23  5.379   23 -0.285   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498  0.069  0.061
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.050   24  5.334   24 -0.325   28 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.458 -0.739 -0.427
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.365   25  5.224   25 -0.417   25 -0.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.006 -0.768
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.413   26  5.153   26 -0.478   23 -0.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.514 -0.236 -0.379
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.161   27  5.075   27 -0.552   24 -0.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.497 -0.311 -0.315
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.314   28  4.996   28 -0.592   33 -0.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.642 -0.124 -1.343
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.580   29  4.970   29 -0.617   35 -0.786    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.790 -0.782
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.324   30  4.965   30 -0.619   34 -0.775    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -0.677 -0.873
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.314   31  4.897   31 -0.651   29 -0.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.496 -0.740
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.767   32  4.854   32 -0.694   31 -0.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.657 -0.023 -1.376
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.505   33  4.845   33 -0.702   26 -0.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.545 -0.373 -0.767
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.321   34  4.482   34 -0.990   32 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552 -0.482 -0.937
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.715   35  4.416   35 -1.060   37 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -1.174 -1.029
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.634   36  4.303   36 -1.123   36 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.622 -0.414 -1.468
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.384   37  4.298   37 -1.127   30 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.676  0.093 -1.425
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.501   38  4.281   38 -1.143   38 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.693 -0.289 -1.966
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.801   39  3.870   39 -1.475   40 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604 -0.843 -1.735
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.634   40  3.685   40 -1.665   39 -1.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.673 -0.422 -1.921
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.265   41  3.471   41 -1.845   42 -1.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.425 -2.331
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.692   42  3.379   42 -1.939   41 -1.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -1.563 -1.467
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.798   43  2.633   43 -2.620   43 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.559 -3.076 -3.588


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.615 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UCCB                    29  4 3024 2430 -0.355    4  6.785    4  0.703    4  0.609    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.732  1.623 -0.404
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.386    8  6.564    8  0.581    9  0.211    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.503 -0.080
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.437   15  5.797   15  0.013   22 -0.273    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.348 -0.854  0.309
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.487   21  5.402   21 -0.257   21 -0.270    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.555 -0.032 -0.508
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.767   32  4.854   32 -0.694   31 -0.700    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.657 -0.023 -1.376
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.801   39  3.870   39 -1.475   40 -1.289    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604 -0.843 -1.735
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.634   40  3.685   40 -1.665   39 -1.171    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.673 -0.422 -1.921
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.265   41  3.471   41 -1.845   42 -1.878    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.425 -2.331

Canada West: strength=-0.129 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UBC                     25  5 2475 2123  0.266    2  7.307    2  1.131    2  1.069    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576  1.397  0.741
Saskatchewan            26  8 3035 2600  0.193    3  6.913    3  0.811    3  1.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.720  1.995  0.084
Calgary                 23  9 2578 2294  0.129    5  6.648    5  0.626    7  0.509    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.553  0.739  0.280
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.105   11  6.217   11  0.352   14  0.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.535  0.183 -0.128
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.199   12  5.962   13  0.133   11  0.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541  0.333 -0.031
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.002   13  5.941   12  0.140   12  0.080    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.569  0.377 -0.218
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.127   16  5.622   16 -0.101   18 -0.232    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612  0.249 -0.713
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.109   18  5.458   18 -0.203   20 -0.258    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.425 -0.546  0.029
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.040   20  5.417   20 -0.244   15 -0.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.507 -0.050 -0.130
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.050   24  5.334   24 -0.325   28 -0.583    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.458 -0.739 -0.427
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.314   28  4.996   28 -0.592   33 -0.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.642 -0.124 -1.343
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.384   37  4.298   37 -1.127   30 -0.666    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.676  0.093 -1.425
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.501   38  4.281   38 -1.143   38 -1.128    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.693 -0.289 -1.966
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.692   42  3.379   42 -1.939   41 -1.515    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -1.563 -1.467

Ontario Univ Athletics: strength=-0.172 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  5 3156 2401  0.321    1  7.374    1  1.179    1  1.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524  1.366  1.147
Windsor                 23 12 2719 2602  0.244    6  6.624    6  0.617    8  0.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.591  0.843  0.056
Lakehead                25  8 2467 2287 -0.069    7  6.591    7  0.605   10  0.203    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.471  0.100  0.305
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.067    9  6.420    9  0.470    5  0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604  1.045  0.149
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.051   10  6.392   10  0.444    6  0.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.862  0.280
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.127   14  5.907   14  0.114   17 -0.129    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.136 -0.121
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.430   17  5.606   17 -0.116   27 -0.578    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -0.820 -0.336
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030 -0.016   19  5.448   19 -0.212   16 -0.114    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -0.658  0.430
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.127   22  5.401   22 -0.259   19 -0.257    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.317 -0.831
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.233   23  5.379   23 -0.285   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498  0.069  0.061
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.161   27  5.075   27 -0.552   24 -0.313    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.497 -0.311 -0.315
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.324   30  4.965   30 -0.619   34 -0.775    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.521 -0.677 -0.873
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.314   31  4.897   31 -0.651   29 -0.618    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.496 -0.740
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.321   34  4.482   34 -0.990   32 -0.709    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552 -0.482 -0.937
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.634   36  4.303   36 -1.123   36 -0.941    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.622 -0.414 -1.468
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.798   43  2.633   43 -2.620   43 -3.332    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.559 -3.076 -3.588

QSSF: strength=-0.674 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.365   25  5.224   25 -0.417   25 -0.381    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.006 -0.768
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.413   26  5.153   26 -0.478   23 -0.308    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.514 -0.236 -0.379
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.580   29  4.970   29 -0.617   35 -0.786    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.790 -0.782
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.505   33  4.845   33 -0.702   26 -0.570    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.545 -0.373 -0.767
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.715   35  4.416   35 -1.060   37 -1.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -1.174 -1.029

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Canada West               192 202 0.487    1 -0.129
Ontario Univ Athletics    255 249 0.506    2 -0.172
CIS-Atlantic              124 116 0.517    3 -0.615
QSSF                       62  79 0.440    4 -0.674

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:33 2010

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