Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UBC                     22  3 2073 1739  0.263    1  6.974    1  1.296    2  1.218    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.571  1.524  0.912
Carleton ON             30  4 2925 2199  0.355    2  6.947    2  1.267    1  1.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.536  1.499  1.181
St Francis Xavier       24  3 2231 1898 -0.340    3  6.490    3  0.856    9  0.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.553  0.696  0.236
UCCB                    26  3 2686 2129 -0.348    4  6.370    4  0.767    5  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.737  1.721 -0.342
Windsor                 22 10 2512 2394  0.248    5  6.305    5  0.705    8  0.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.971 -0.002
Lakehead                24  6 2265 2048 -0.096    6  6.278    6  0.679   10  0.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.470  0.239  0.459
Calgary                 21  7 2268 1978  0.091    7  6.259    7  0.662    7  0.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552  0.808  0.355
Ottawa ON               23  8 2570 2199  0.092    8  6.230    8  0.635    4  0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607  1.216  0.305
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215  0.020    9  6.048    9  0.519    6  0.661    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.566  0.947  0.376
Saskatchewan            21  8 2587 2199 -0.002   10  5.973   10  0.447    3  0.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.708  1.771 -0.031
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Simon Fraser            18 10 2110 2105  0.083   11  5.962   11  0.438   14  0.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537  0.224 -0.100
Dalhousie               19  8 1979 1783 -0.365   12  5.670   12  0.179   18 -0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -0.638  0.457
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.060   13  5.668   13  0.177   17 -0.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -0.071 -0.040
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.239   14  5.657   14  0.167   11  0.205    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.543  0.391  0.020
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.022   15  5.651   15  0.162   13  0.109    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.568  0.403 -0.185
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.360   16  5.383   16 -0.049   26 -0.512    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -0.761 -0.263
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.094   17  5.327   17 -0.069   20 -0.198    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613  0.286 -0.681
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030  0.051   18  5.240   18 -0.148   15 -0.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.357 -0.591  0.511
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.077   19  5.211   19 -0.173   21 -0.215    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -0.506  0.076
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.054   20  5.181   20 -0.182   19 -0.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.385 -0.755
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077  0.004   21  5.165   21 -0.196   16 -0.043    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -0.001 -0.086
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.165   22  5.149   22 -0.211   12  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496  0.133  0.148
St Mary's NS            16 12 2198 2127 -0.485   23  5.100   23 -0.263   25 -0.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.550 -0.192 -0.629
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.010   24  5.075   24 -0.287   28 -0.540    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.458 -0.697 -0.383
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.304   25  4.967   25 -0.360   24 -0.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.063 -0.711
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.353   26  4.890   26 -0.418   23 -0.249    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.516 -0.174 -0.324
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.094   27  4.824   27 -0.481   22 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.253 -0.239
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.273   28  4.760   28 -0.548   32 -0.704    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.643 -0.093 -1.316
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.255   29  4.754   29 -0.554   33 -0.718    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520 -0.624 -0.812
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.525   30  4.742   30 -0.564   35 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.753 -0.734
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.244   31  4.682   31 -0.586   29 -0.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.526 -0.440 -0.670
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.451   32  4.584   32 -0.648   27 -0.524    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.546 -0.325 -0.722
Acadia                  13 13 2091 2087 -0.758   33  4.554   33 -0.677   34 -0.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.660 -0.049 -1.421
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.254   34  4.239   34 -0.923   31 -0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.551 -0.428 -0.869
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.657   35  4.163   35 -0.998   37 -1.071    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.476 -1.158 -0.984
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.568   36  4.088   36 -1.061   36 -0.889    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.621 -0.370 -1.409
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.356   37  4.048   37 -1.098   30 -0.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.676  0.117 -1.396
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.461   38  4.042   38 -1.103   39 -1.119    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.694 -0.279 -1.958
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.749   39  3.702   39 -1.423   40 -1.254    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -0.806 -1.702
UPEI                     4 21 1923 2179 -0.625   40  3.527   40 -1.601   38 -1.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.679 -0.322 -1.868
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.195   41  3.284   41 -1.785   42 -1.833    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.383 -2.283
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.653   42  3.190   42 -1.897   41 -1.519    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -1.566 -1.473
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.733   43  2.477   43 -2.560   43 -3.344    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.558 -3.095 -3.593


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.551 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Francis Xavier       24  3 2231 1898 -0.340    3  6.490    3  0.856    9  0.466    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.553  0.696  0.236
UCCB                    26  3 2686 2129 -0.348    4  6.370    4  0.767    5  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.737  1.721 -0.342
Dalhousie               19  8 1979 1783 -0.365   12  5.670   12  0.179   18 -0.091    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -0.638  0.457
St Mary's NS            16 12 2198 2127 -0.485   23  5.100   23 -0.263   25 -0.411    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.550 -0.192 -0.629
Acadia                  13 13 2091 2087 -0.758   33  4.554   33 -0.677   34 -0.735    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.660 -0.049 -1.421
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.749   39  3.702   39 -1.423   40 -1.254    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -0.806 -1.702
UPEI                     4 21 1923 2179 -0.625   40  3.527   40 -1.601   38 -1.095    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.679 -0.322 -1.868
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.195   41  3.284   41 -1.785   42 -1.833    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.383 -2.283

Canada West: strength=-0.097 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UBC                     22  3 2073 1739  0.263    1  6.974    1  1.296    2  1.218    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.571  1.524  0.912
Calgary                 21  7 2268 1978  0.091    7  6.259    7  0.662    7  0.581    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552  0.808  0.355
Saskatchewan            21  8 2587 2199 -0.002   10  5.973   10  0.447    3  0.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.708  1.771 -0.031
Simon Fraser            18 10 2110 2105  0.083   11  5.962   11  0.438   14  0.062    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537  0.224 -0.100
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.239   14  5.657   14  0.167   11  0.205    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.543  0.391  0.020
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074  0.022   15  5.651   15  0.162   13  0.109    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.568  0.403 -0.185
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.094   17  5.327   17 -0.069   20 -0.198    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613  0.286 -0.681
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.077   19  5.211   19 -0.173   21 -0.215    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -0.506  0.076
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077  0.004   21  5.165   21 -0.196   16 -0.043    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.508 -0.001 -0.086
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.010   24  5.075   24 -0.287   28 -0.540    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.458 -0.697 -0.383
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.273   28  4.760   28 -0.548   32 -0.704    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.643 -0.093 -1.316
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.356   37  4.048   37 -1.098   30 -0.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.676  0.117 -1.396
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.461   38  4.042   38 -1.103   39 -1.119    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.694 -0.279 -1.958
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.653   42  3.190   42 -1.897   41 -1.519    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -1.566 -1.473

Ontario Univ Athletics: strength=-0.101 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             30  4 2925 2199  0.355    2  6.947    2  1.267    1  1.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.536  1.499  1.181
Windsor                 22 10 2512 2394  0.248    5  6.305    5  0.705    8  0.484    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.971 -0.002
Lakehead                24  6 2265 2048 -0.096    6  6.278    6  0.679   10  0.349    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.470  0.239  0.459
Ottawa ON               23  8 2570 2199  0.092    8  6.230    8  0.635    4  0.760    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607  1.216  0.305
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215  0.020    9  6.048    9  0.519    6  0.661    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.566  0.947  0.376
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.060   13  5.668   13  0.177   17 -0.056    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.494 -0.071 -0.040
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.360   16  5.383   16 -0.049   26 -0.512    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.435 -0.761 -0.263
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030  0.051   18  5.240   18 -0.148   15 -0.040    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.357 -0.591  0.511
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.054   20  5.181   20 -0.182   19 -0.185    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.385 -0.755
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.165   22  5.149   22 -0.211   12  0.141    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496  0.133  0.148
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.094   27  4.824   27 -0.481   22 -0.246    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.253 -0.239
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.255   29  4.754   29 -0.554   33 -0.718    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520 -0.624 -0.812
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.244   31  4.682   31 -0.586   29 -0.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.526 -0.440 -0.670
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.254   34  4.239   34 -0.923   31 -0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.551 -0.428 -0.869
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.568   36  4.088   36 -1.061   36 -0.889    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.621 -0.370 -1.409
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.733   43  2.477   43 -2.560   43 -3.344    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.558 -3.095 -3.593

QSSF: strength=-0.618 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.304   25  4.967   25 -0.360   24 -0.324    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.063 -0.711
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.353   26  4.890   26 -0.418   23 -0.249    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.516 -0.174 -0.324
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.525   30  4.742   30 -0.564   35 -0.744    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.753 -0.734
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.451   32  4.584   32 -0.648   27 -0.524    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.546 -0.325 -0.722
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.657   35  4.163   35 -0.998   37 -1.071    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.476 -1.158 -0.984

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Canada West               182 196 0.481    1 -0.097
Ontario Univ Athletics    251 242 0.509    2 -0.101
CIS-Atlantic              116 107 0.520    3 -0.551
QSSF                       62  79 0.440    4 -0.618

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.279 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Sat Mar  6 17:19:41 2010

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.