Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  4 3074 2315  0.328    1  7.449    1  1.288    1  1.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520  1.435  1.245
UBC                     23  4 2238 1911  0.190    2  7.277    2  1.123    2  1.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.582  1.368  0.658
UCCB                    29  3 2950 2348 -0.376    3  6.879    3  0.808    4  0.682    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.736  1.712 -0.348
Windsor                 23 11 2651 2531  0.240    4  6.714    4  0.667    8  0.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602  0.915  0.035
Lakehead                25  7 2409 2208 -0.075    5  6.700    5  0.654    9  0.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.475  0.202  0.381
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.353    6  6.651    6  0.609   10  0.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.543 -0.040
Saskatchewan            23  8 2787 2369  0.072    7  6.625    7  0.588    3  0.972    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.724  1.950 -0.005
Calgary                 22  8 2433 2143  0.049    8  6.602    8  0.586    7  0.490    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.560  0.751  0.230
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.097    9  6.489    9  0.500    5  0.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604  1.088  0.192
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.025   10  6.446   10  0.469    6  0.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.899  0.321
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.091   11  6.229   11  0.340   14  0.019    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534  0.170 -0.133
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.102   12  6.004   12  0.136   17 -0.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.108 -0.091
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.185   13  5.985   14  0.119   11  0.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541  0.331 -0.034
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074 -0.022   14  5.956   13  0.121   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.357 -0.227
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.407   15  5.865   15  0.042   20 -0.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.348 -0.824  0.342
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.404   16  5.661   16 -0.092   26 -0.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -0.797 -0.312
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.139   17  5.639   17 -0.112   21 -0.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611  0.237 -0.722
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030  0.008   18  5.544   18 -0.189   15 -0.085    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.357 -0.632  0.462
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.126   19  5.515   19 -0.218   22 -0.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -0.561  0.017
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.455   20  5.509   20 -0.223   19 -0.238    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -0.002 -0.475
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.102   21  5.500   21 -0.231   18 -0.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.341 -0.800
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.048   22  5.479   22 -0.251   16 -0.096    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.506 -0.058 -0.134
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.207   23  5.471   23 -0.259   12  0.096    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498  0.101  0.092
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.058   24  5.393   24 -0.334   29 -0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.457 -0.755 -0.438
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.353   25  5.297   25 -0.405   25 -0.370    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.016 -0.756
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.396   26  5.233   26 -0.461   24 -0.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.515 -0.219 -0.364
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.135   27  5.168   27 -0.527   23 -0.287    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.497 -0.285 -0.288
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.322   28  5.091   28 -0.595   33 -0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -0.145 -1.356
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.297   29  5.090   29 -0.595   34 -0.756    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520 -0.660 -0.851
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.565   30  5.081   30 -0.602   35 -0.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.784 -0.775
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.288   31  5.006   31 -0.628   28 -0.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.473 -0.718
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.738   32  4.965   32 -0.667   30 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.657  0.002 -1.353
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.492   33  4.939   33 -0.689   27 -0.561    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.545 -0.364 -0.758
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.295   34  4.615   34 -0.962   31 -0.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552 -0.459 -0.915
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.701   35  4.519   35 -1.045   37 -1.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -1.178 -1.029
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.611   36  4.457   36 -1.102   36 -0.926    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.622 -0.399 -1.452
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.408   37  4.375   37 -1.145   32 -0.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.675  0.068 -1.443
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.506   38  4.363   38 -1.146   38 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.693 -0.315 -1.988
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.771   39  3.989   39 -1.446   40 -1.274    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604 -0.827 -1.721
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.606   40  3.782   40 -1.638   39 -1.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.673 -0.406 -1.902
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.226   41  3.567   41 -1.807   42 -1.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.415 -2.316
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.697   42  3.442   42 -1.937   41 -1.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -1.597 -1.498
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.771   43  2.658   43 -2.593   43 -3.354    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.559 -3.098 -3.609


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.583 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UCCB                    29  3 2950 2348 -0.376    3  6.879    3  0.808    4  0.682    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.736  1.712 -0.348
St Francis Xavier       25  5 2466 2157 -0.353    6  6.651    6  0.609   10  0.252    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.543 -0.040
Dalhousie               20 10 2177 2002 -0.407   15  5.865   15  0.042   20 -0.241    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.348 -0.824  0.342
St Mary's NS            18 13 2451 2345 -0.455   20  5.509   20 -0.223   19 -0.238    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -0.002 -0.475
Acadia                  14 14 2234 2225 -0.738   32  4.965   32 -0.667   30 -0.675    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.657  0.002 -1.353
UNB                      7 24 2271 2623 -0.771   39  3.989   39 -1.446   40 -1.274    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604 -0.827 -1.721
UPEI                     4 23 2065 2361 -0.606   40  3.782   40 -1.638   39 -1.154    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.673 -0.406 -1.902
Memorial                 7 23 2171 2525 -1.226   41  3.567   41 -1.807   42 -1.866    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -1.415 -2.316

Canada West: strength=-0.146 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UBC                     23  4 2238 1911  0.190    2  7.277    2  1.123    2  1.013    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.582  1.368  0.658
Saskatchewan            23  8 2787 2369  0.072    7  6.625    7  0.588    3  0.972    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.724  1.950 -0.005
Calgary                 22  8 2433 2143  0.049    8  6.602    8  0.586    7  0.490    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.560  0.751  0.230
Simon Fraser            18 12 2247 2265  0.091   11  6.229   11  0.340   14  0.019    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.534  0.170 -0.133
Trinity Western         12 11 1736 1690  0.185   13  5.985   14  0.119   11  0.149    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.541  0.331 -0.034
Fraser Valley           15 12 2092 2074 -0.022   14  5.956   13  0.121   13  0.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.357 -0.227
Regina                  15 14 2324 2294 -0.139   17  5.639   17 -0.112   21 -0.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611  0.237 -0.722
Victoria                10 11 1482 1500 -0.126   19  5.515   19 -0.218   22 -0.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.424 -0.561  0.017
Lethbridge U.           12 16 2054 2077 -0.048   22  5.479   22 -0.251   16 -0.096    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.506 -0.058 -0.134
Alberta                 12 20 2184 2414 -0.058   24  5.393   24 -0.334   29 -0.597    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.457 -0.755 -0.438
Brandon                  9 15 1851 1961 -0.322   28  5.091   28 -0.595   33 -0.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -0.145 -1.356
Thompson Rivers          6 21 2098 2272 -0.408   37  4.375   37 -1.145   32 -0.688    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.675  0.068 -1.443
Manitoba                 7 22 2215 2518 -0.506   38  4.363   38 -1.146   38 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.693 -0.315 -1.988
Winnipeg                 2 26 1865 2294 -0.697   42  3.442   42 -1.937   41 -1.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.485 -1.597 -1.498

Ontario Univ Athletics: strength=-0.144 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             32  4 3074 2315  0.328    1  7.449    1  1.288    1  1.340    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520  1.435  1.245
Windsor                 23 11 2651 2531  0.240    4  6.714    4  0.667    8  0.475    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.602  0.915  0.035
Lakehead                25  7 2409 2208 -0.075    5  6.700    5  0.654    9  0.291    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.475  0.202  0.381
Ottawa ON               23 10 2707 2355  0.097    9  6.489    9  0.500    5  0.640    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.604  1.088  0.192
McMaster                23  9 2569 2215 -0.025   10  6.446   10  0.469    6  0.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567  0.899  0.321
Toronto                 21 14 2634 2476 -0.102   12  6.004   12  0.136   17 -0.099    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.108 -0.091
Queen's ON              17 12 2079 2025 -0.404   16  5.661   16 -0.092   26 -0.555    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.436 -0.797 -0.312
Waterloo                13 17 2043 2030  0.008   18  5.544   18 -0.189   15 -0.085    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.357 -0.632  0.462
Western ON              15 17 2500 2460 -0.102   21  5.500   21 -0.231   18 -0.230    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633  0.341 -0.800
Laurier                 16 16 2367 2263 -0.207   23  5.471   23 -0.259   12  0.096    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498  0.101  0.092
Guelph                  10 18 2004 2019 -0.135   27  5.168   27 -0.527   23 -0.287    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.497 -0.285 -0.288
Brock                   11 19 2114 2263 -0.297   29  5.090   29 -0.595   34 -0.756    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.520 -0.660 -0.851
Ryerson                 10 18 1989 2135 -0.288   31  5.006   31 -0.628   28 -0.595    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.527 -0.473 -0.718
York ON                  7 24 2184 2446 -0.295   34  4.615   34 -0.962   31 -0.687    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.552 -0.459 -0.915
Laurentian               8 19 2013 2178 -0.611   36  4.457   36 -1.102   36 -0.926    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.622 -0.399 -1.452
RMC                      1 31 1865 3080 -1.771   43  2.658   43 -2.593   43 -3.354    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.559 -3.098 -3.609

QSSF: strength=-0.660 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Laval                   16 16 2477 2386 -0.353   25  5.297   25 -0.405   25 -0.370    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590  0.016 -0.756
UQAM                    14 15 2143 2128 -0.396   26  5.233   26 -0.461   24 -0.292    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.515 -0.219 -0.364
Bishop's                12 15 1903 2086 -0.565   30  5.081   30 -0.602   35 -0.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -0.784 -0.775
McGill                  11 15 1932 1979 -0.492   33  4.939   33 -0.689   27 -0.561    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.545 -0.364 -0.758
Concordia QC             9 18 1824 2055 -0.701   35  4.519   35 -1.045   37 -1.104    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -1.178 -1.029

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ontario Univ Athletics    255 246 0.509    1 -0.144
Canada West               186 200 0.482    2 -0.146
CIS-Atlantic              124 115 0.519    3 -0.583
QSSF                       62  79 0.440    4 -0.660

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Mar 17 13:06:17 2010

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