Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Champion Baptist        10 18 1863 2175 -2.172    1  2.716    1 -2.527    1 -2.635    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.466 -2.758 -2.512
Barclay                  7 13 1532 1655 -2.513    2  2.272    2 -2.905    3 -3.031    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -2.579 -3.484
Shepherd Film            3  4  483  546 -2.647    3  2.224    3 -2.996    2 -2.943    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -2.851 -3.035
Canadian Mennonite       2  4  401  514 -3.061    4  1.824    4 -3.508    4 -3.654    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.416 -3.891
Arlington Baptist        3 15 1045 1506 -2.812    5  1.766    5 -3.648    5 -3.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.091 -3.403
Crossroads MN            9 12 1335 1377 -3.579    6  1.647    6 -3.774    7 -3.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.334 -4.596 -3.329
AFLBS                    4 10  876  950 -3.511    7  1.456    7 -4.137    6 -3.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.369 -4.374 -3.366
Nebraska Christian       1 15  856 1463 -4.314    8  0.676    8 -5.829    9 -5.831    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.422 -6.131 -5.531
Calvary Bible            1 13  774 1223 -4.596    9  0.589    9 -6.028    8 -5.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.414 -5.854 -5.197
Oak Hills Christian      0  4  131  371 -2.909   10  0.527   10 -6.252   10 -8.678    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.177 -9.875 -7.481


ACCA: strength=-3.188 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace Bible             25 10 2775 2283 -0.520       5.709      -0.066      -0.023      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.521  0.077 -0.122
SW Christian            26 13 3376 3115 -1.437       4.454      -1.023      -1.108      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.684 -0.310 -1.906
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.416       3.468      -1.848      -1.953      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.669 -1.222 -2.685
Champion Baptist        10 18 1863 2175 -2.172    1  2.716    1 -2.527    1 -2.635    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.466 -2.758 -2.512
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040       2.345      -2.796      -2.807      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.762 -1.659 -3.955
Rhema Bible              5 24 1887 2256 -1.856       2.381      -2.836      -2.491      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.411 -2.831 -2.152
Shepherd Film            3  4  483  546 -2.647    3  2.224    3 -2.996    2 -2.943    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -2.851 -3.035
Canadian Mennonite       2  4  401  514 -3.061    4  1.824    4 -3.508    4 -3.654    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.416 -3.891
Arlington Baptist        3 15 1045 1506 -2.812    5  1.766    5 -3.648    5 -3.747    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.091 -3.403
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.617       1.513      -4.048      -3.956      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.563 -3.682 -4.230
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.471       1.405      -4.260      -4.104      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.361 -4.639 -3.570
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.531       0.993      -4.989      -5.108      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.474 -5.201 -5.016
Oak Hills Christian      0  4  131  371 -2.909   10  0.527   10 -6.252   10 -8.678    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.177 -9.875 -7.481

Midwest Christian: strength=-3.226 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Dallas Christian        14 24 2666 2842 -0.796       4.090      -1.269      -0.941      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.490 -0.967 -0.915
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.223       3.334      -1.990      -1.950      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.413 -2.285 -1.614
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.299       2.953      -2.377      -2.588      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.510 -2.534 -2.642
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.589       2.519      -2.709      -2.821      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.653 -2.161 -3.480
Barclay                  7 13 1532 1655 -2.513    2  2.272    2 -2.905    3 -3.031    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -2.579 -3.484
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.796       1.051      -4.861      -4.675      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.726 -3.688 -5.662
Nebraska Christian       1 15  856 1463 -4.314    8  0.676    8 -5.829    9 -5.831    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.422 -6.131 -5.531
Calvary Bible            1 13  774 1223 -4.596    9  0.589    9 -6.028    8 -5.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.414 -5.854 -5.197

Northern IAC: strength=-3.472 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.765       2.036      -3.147      -2.976      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.666 -2.261 -3.690
St Cloud Tech            3  3  452  439 -3.437       1.811      -3.540      -3.166      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.557 -2.920 -3.412
Crossroads MN            9 12 1335 1377 -3.579    6  1.647    6 -3.774    7 -3.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.334 -4.596 -3.329
AFLBS                    4 10  876  950 -3.511    7  1.456    7 -4.137    6 -3.870    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.369 -4.374 -3.366

Pacific Christian: strength=-1.841 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Portland Bible          18 15 2635 2467 -1.068       4.414      -1.061      -0.936      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.528 -0.810 -1.062
Walla Walla              9 18 2119 2372 -0.976       4.063      -1.300      -1.362      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.716 -0.422 -2.302
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.934       3.442      -1.875      -2.360      0.0000      0.0000           0  4.093  0.431 -5.150
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.321       2.886      -2.445      -1.894      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.642 -1.282 -2.505
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.574       2.733      -2.504      -2.498      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.557 -2.251 -2.745

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Pacific Christian          48  96 0.333    1 -1.841
ACCA                      105 181 0.367    2 -3.188
Midwest Christian          70 128 0.354    3 -3.226
Northern IAC               26  41 0.388    4 -3.472

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:33 2010

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