Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
West Coast Baptist       7 12  0 1216 1322 -1.968    1  2.806    1 -2.371    1 -2.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.391 -2.860 -1.989
Crowley's Ridge          7  7  0 1088 1083 -2.690    2  2.505    2 -2.752    2 -2.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.626 -2.293 -3.338
Canadian Mennonite       6  2  0  655  568 -3.949    3  1.987    3 -3.355    3 -3.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -3.367 -3.508
Barclay                  6 13  0 1478 1564 -3.484    4  1.328    4 -4.206    4 -3.845    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.699 -3.001 -4.688
Crossroads MN            9  9  0 1271 1207 -4.174    5  1.312    5 -4.234    5 -3.978    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.411 -4.335 -3.621
Champion Baptist         2 17  0 1294 1749 -3.081    6  1.199    6 -4.515    6 -4.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.625 -3.695 -4.738
Nebraska Christian       3 17  0 1335 1764 -4.254    7  0.776    7 -5.487    7 -5.039    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.565 -4.776 -5.303
Oak Hills Christian      0  8  0  565  705 -4.355    8  0.531    8 -6.070    8 -5.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.601 -4.935 -5.771
AFLBS                    0  9  0  487  797 -4.581    9  0.458    9 -6.266    9 -6.971    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.440 -7.215 -6.727


ACCA: strength=-2.999 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
SW Christian            20  9  0 2339 2244 -1.980       3.695      -1.408      -1.855      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.637 -1.281 -2.428
Southwestern AZ          6  8  0 1015 1061 -1.812       2.982      -2.169      -1.936      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.565 -1.672 -2.201
Grace Bible             15 15  0 2298 2369 -1.846       3.325      -1.787      -2.140      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.607 -1.699 -2.581
Rhema Bible              4 30  0 2143 2805 -1.423       2.658      -2.546      -2.362      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.459 -2.531 -2.194
Ozark Christian         21 14  0 2798 2653 -2.720       2.799      -2.366      -2.597      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.612 -2.133 -3.061
Hillsdale Free Will      9 19  0 1859 2135 -2.274       2.491      -2.771      -2.783      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.453 -2.978 -2.589
Multnomah Bible         13 13  0 1986 2028 -2.648       2.612      -2.599      -2.789      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.593 -2.407 -3.171
Crowley's Ridge          7  7  0 1088 1083 -2.690    2  2.505    2 -2.752    2 -2.816    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.626 -2.293 -3.338
Dallas Christian         8 14  0 1579 1854 -2.552       2.477      -2.775      -2.925      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.596 -2.528 -3.322
Canadian Mennonite       6  2  0  655  568 -3.949    3  1.987    3 -3.355    3 -3.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -3.367 -3.508
Emmaus Bible             8 17  0 1610 1717 -3.919       1.252      -4.395      -4.185      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.346 -4.793 -3.577
Champion Baptist         2 17  0 1294 1749 -3.081    6  1.199    6 -4.515    6 -4.216    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.625 -3.695 -4.738
Providence MB            8 13  0 1466 1662 -4.362       1.224      -4.446      -4.598      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.545 -4.415 -4.780
Free Will Baptist        6 21  0 1736 2248 -4.058       1.127      -4.683      -4.817      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.459 -4.986 -4.649

NIAC: strength=-4.513 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity Bible           10  8  0 1509 1413 -3.601       1.873      -3.527      -3.353      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.722 -2.403 -4.303
St Cloud Tech            4  1  0  385  366 -4.096       2.085      -3.217      -3.771      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.538 -3.619 -3.923
Crossroads MN            9  9  0 1271 1207 -4.174    5  1.312    5 -4.234    5 -3.978    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.411 -4.335 -3.621
Pillsbury Bapt Bible    10 11  0 1515 1469 -4.110       1.387      -4.092      -4.204      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.505 -4.190 -4.219
Providence MB            8 13  0 1466 1662 -4.362       1.224      -4.446      -4.598      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.545 -4.415 -4.780
Oak Hills Christian      0  8  0  565  705 -4.355    8  0.531    8 -6.070    8 -5.353    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.601 -4.935 -5.771
AFLBS                    0  9  0  487  797 -4.581    9  0.458    9 -6.266    9 -6.971    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.440 -7.215 -6.727

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
ACCA                       133 199   0 0.401    1 -2.999
NIAC                        41  59   0 0.410    2 -4.513

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:54 2008

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