Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Champion Baptist        10 18 1863 2175 -2.173    1  2.753    1 -2.533    1 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.467 -2.748 -2.510
Barclay                  7 13 1532 1655 -2.524    2  2.284    2 -2.921    2 -3.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -2.584 -3.488
Canadian Mennonite       2  4  401  514 -3.054    3  1.739    3 -3.549    3 -3.645    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.410 -3.881
Arlington Baptist        3 15 1045 1506 -2.801    4  1.703    4 -3.647    4 -3.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.081 -3.393
Crossroads MN            9 12 1335 1377 -3.576    5  1.563    5 -3.776    6 -3.963    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.334 -4.596 -3.329
AFLBS                    4 10  876  950 -3.507    6  1.338    6 -4.139    5 -3.867    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.369 -4.370 -3.364
Nebraska Christian       1 15  856 1463 -4.317    7  0.643    7 -5.863    8 -5.850    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.422 -6.149 -5.550
Calvary Bible            1 13  774 1223 -4.600    8  0.575    8 -6.056    7 -5.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.414 -5.873 -5.214
Oak Hills Christian      0  4  131  371 -2.909    9  0.490    9 -6.359    9 -8.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.176 -9.978 -7.581


ACCA: strength=-3.235 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Grace Bible             22 10 2565 2093 -0.419       5.626      -0.118       0.118      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.536  0.281 -0.044
SW Christian            23 12 3056 2819 -1.465       4.460      -1.101      -1.154      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.692 -0.323 -1.986
Hillsdale Free Will     12 26 2813 3329 -1.413       3.531      -1.850      -1.945      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.669 -1.213 -2.676
Champion Baptist        10 18 1863 2175 -2.173    1  2.753    1 -2.533    1 -2.629    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.467 -2.748 -2.510
Rhema Bible              5 24 1887 2256 -1.847       2.395      -2.827      -2.488      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.411 -2.830 -2.147
Crowley's Ridge          2 15 1281 1574 -2.040       2.352      -2.794      -2.853      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.762 -1.705 -4.002
Canadian Mennonite       2  4  401  514 -3.054    3  1.739    3 -3.549    3 -3.645    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.410 -3.881
Arlington Baptist        3 15 1045 1506 -2.801    4  1.703    4 -3.647    4 -3.737    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.081 -3.393
Free Will Baptist       11 20 2223 2421 -3.599       1.436      -4.035      -3.945      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.563 -3.673 -4.217
Emmaus Bible             6 21 1605 1950 -3.462       1.281      -4.253      -4.100      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.360 -4.637 -3.564
Providence MB            0  7  407  631 -3.529       0.950      -4.988      -5.165      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.473 -5.259 -5.071
Oak Hills Christian      0  4  131  371 -2.909    9  0.490    9 -6.359    9 -8.780    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.176 -9.978 -7.581

Midwest Christian: strength=-3.233 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Dallas Christian        11 23 2353 2543 -0.766       4.022      -1.422      -0.961      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.483 -1.015 -0.907
Manhattan Christian     19 13 2368 2184 -2.231       3.386      -2.001      -1.953      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.413 -2.285 -1.621
Grace NE                12 15 1960 2058 -2.308       3.016      -2.392      -2.592      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.511 -2.534 -2.650
Ozark Christian         16 20 2842 2935 -2.596       2.523      -2.715      -2.828      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.653 -2.167 -3.489
Barclay                  7 13 1532 1655 -2.524    2  2.284    2 -2.921    2 -3.036    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.605 -2.584 -3.488
Ctr Chr Col Bible MO     0 15 1004 1522 -2.798       0.991      -4.864      -4.698      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.729 -3.701 -5.695
Nebraska Christian       1 15  856 1463 -4.317    7  0.643    7 -5.863    8 -5.850    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.422 -6.149 -5.550
Calvary Bible            1 13  774 1223 -4.600    8  0.575    8 -6.056    7 -5.544    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.414 -5.873 -5.214

Northern IAC: strength=-3.471 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Trinity Bible           10 16 1955 2015 -2.770       2.031      -3.152      -2.979      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.665 -2.265 -3.693
St Cloud Tech            3  3  452  439 -3.436       1.742      -3.536      -3.147      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.557 -2.900 -3.394
Crossroads MN            9 12 1335 1377 -3.576    5  1.563    5 -3.776    6 -3.963    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.334 -4.596 -3.329
AFLBS                    4 10  876  950 -3.507    6  1.338    6 -4.139    5 -3.867    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.369 -4.370 -3.364

Pacific Christian: strength=-1.834 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Portland Bible          16 13 2355 2187 -1.044       4.521      -1.045      -0.861      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.542 -0.677 -1.045
Walla Walla              9 18 2119 2372 -0.970       4.159      -1.293      -1.364      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.715 -0.427 -2.302
Multnomah Bible         13 18 3041 3384 -1.938       3.501      -1.878      -2.355      0.0000      0.0000           0  4.092  0.434 -5.143
Southwestern AZ          3 22 1845 2127 -1.317       2.827      -2.442      -1.893      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.641 -1.285 -2.500
West Coast Baptist       5 23 1956 2385 -1.573       2.775      -2.504      -2.496      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.556 -2.252 -2.740

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Pacific Christian          46  94 0.329    1 -1.834
Midwest Christian          67 127 0.345    2 -3.233
ACCA                       96 176 0.353    3 -3.235
Northern IAC               26  41 0.388    4 -3.471

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Mar 17 13:06:17 2010

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