Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.053    3  3.503    3 -1.818    1 -1.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.713 -0.554 -2.403
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.866    1  3.936    1 -1.424    2 -1.520    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -1.036 -2.003
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.918    2  3.884    2 -1.461    3 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.616 -1.252 -2.252
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.216    4  3.206    4 -2.133    4 -1.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.640 -1.293 -2.496
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.880   10  1.826   10 -3.470    5 -2.465    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -2.022 -2.908
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.764    5  2.763    5 -2.470    6 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.585 -2.239 -2.970
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.200    6  2.634    6 -2.624    7 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -2.383 -3.388
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.184    7  2.419    7 -2.789    8 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -2.906 -2.899
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.256    9  1.900    9 -3.349    9 -3.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.654 -2.409 -3.737
St Cloud Tech            3  3  452  439 -3.437   11  1.811   11 -3.540   10 -3.166    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.557 -2.920 -3.412
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Coll of the Bahamas      0  4  232  332 -1.344   21  1.355   22 -4.363   11 -3.209    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -3.289 -3.128
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.595   23  1.339   23 -4.397   12 -3.346    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -3.423 -3.269
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.395   22  1.352   21 -4.362   13 -3.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.360 -3.959 -2.888
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.108   15  1.738   16 -3.715   14 -3.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524 -3.339 -3.561
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.042   12  1.808   12 -3.548   15 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.375 -3.846
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.150    8  2.242    8 -2.954   16 -3.746    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.447 -3.947 -3.545
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.181   20  1.431   20 -4.201   17 -3.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.532 -3.789 -4.081
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.741   16  1.707   15 -3.676   18 -3.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -3.487 -4.465
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.303   19  1.485   19 -4.096   19 -4.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.304 -4.892 -3.399
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.791   18  1.502   18 -4.060   20 -4.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -4.251 -4.110
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.495   29  0.953   29 -5.076   21 -4.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.434 -4.494 -3.991
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.951   26  1.146   26 -4.753   22 -4.405    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.630 -3.844 -4.965
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.702   14  1.761   14 -3.658   23 -4.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.367 -4.922 -3.902
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.641   13  1.771   13 -3.642   24 -4.430    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.512 -4.368 -4.493
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.845   27  1.022   27 -4.939   25 -4.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -5.114 -4.022
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.179   17  1.528   17 -4.022   26 -4.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.264 -5.526 -3.740
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.665   25  1.150   25 -4.743   27 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.913 -2.904 -6.647
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.299   24  1.287   24 -4.531   28 -4.948    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.129 -6.308 -3.588
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.450   30  0.939   30 -5.129   29 -4.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.702 -4.086 -5.838
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.520   31  0.668   31 -5.840   30 -5.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.577 -4.931 -5.594
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.127   35  0.317   35 -6.951   31 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.412 -5.604 -4.929
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.552   28  0.999   28 -5.003   32 -6.331    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.336 -6.958 -5.704
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.776   32  0.579   32 -6.052   33 -6.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.379 -6.958 -6.031
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.468   36  0.087   36 -7.857   34 -6.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.209 -7.899 -5.723
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.578   37  0.000   37 -8.184   35 -7.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -8.343 -6.592
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.423   33  0.387   33 -6.735   36 -7.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.240 -8.486 -6.534
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.100   34  0.341   34 -6.861   37 -8.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.237 -9.470 -7.495


Independent: strength=-4.299 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.918    2  3.884    2 -1.461    3 -1.752    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.616 -1.252 -2.252
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.216    4  3.206    4 -2.133    4 -1.895    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.640 -1.293 -2.496
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.200    6  2.634    6 -2.624    7 -2.885    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -2.383 -3.388
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.184    7  2.419    7 -2.789    8 -2.903    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.496 -2.906 -2.899
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.595   23  1.339   23 -4.397   12 -3.346    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -3.423 -3.269
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.150    8  2.242    8 -2.954   16 -3.746    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.447 -3.947 -3.545
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.303   19  1.485   19 -4.096   19 -4.146    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.304 -4.892 -3.399
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.791   18  1.502   18 -4.060   20 -4.181    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.479 -4.251 -4.110
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.495   29  0.953   29 -5.076   21 -4.243    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.434 -4.494 -3.991
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.702   14  1.761   14 -3.658   23 -4.412    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.367 -4.922 -3.902
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.641   13  1.771   13 -3.642   24 -4.430    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.512 -4.368 -4.493
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.450   30  0.939   30 -5.129   29 -4.962    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.702 -4.086 -5.838
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.127   35  0.317   35 -6.951   31 -5.266    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.412 -5.604 -4.929
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.552   28  0.999   28 -5.003   32 -6.331    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.336 -6.958 -5.704
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.468   36  0.087   36 -7.857   34 -6.811    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.209 -7.899 -5.723
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.578   37  0.000   37 -8.184   35 -7.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -8.343 -6.592

Hudson Valley: strength=-4.540 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 16 1800 2029 -2.861       2.622      -2.639      -3.021      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587 -2.645 -3.397
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.108   15  1.738   16 -3.715   14 -3.450    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524 -3.339 -3.561
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.741   16  1.707   15 -3.676   18 -3.976    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -3.487 -4.465
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.845   27  1.022   27 -4.939   25 -4.568    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -5.114 -4.022
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.179   17  1.528   17 -4.022   26 -4.633    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.264 -5.526 -3.740
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.776   32  0.579   32 -6.052   33 -6.494    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.379 -6.958 -6.031
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.423   33  0.387   33 -6.735   36 -7.510    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.240 -8.486 -6.534

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-2.940 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cincinnati-Clermont     26  7 2886 2329 -1.421       4.946      -0.638      -0.763      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.620 -0.247 -1.280
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.053    3  3.503    3 -1.818    1 -1.478    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.713 -0.554 -2.403
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.866    1  3.936    1 -1.424    2 -1.520    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.612 -1.036 -2.003
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.880   10  1.826   10 -3.470    5 -2.465    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -2.022 -2.908
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.764    5  2.763    5 -2.470    6 -2.604    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.585 -2.239 -2.970
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.256    9  1.900    9 -3.349    9 -3.073    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.654 -2.409 -3.737
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.395   22  1.352   21 -4.362   13 -3.424    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.360 -3.959 -2.888
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.042   12  1.808   12 -3.548   15 -3.610    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.375 -3.846
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.181   20  1.431   20 -4.201   17 -3.935    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.532 -3.789 -4.081
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.665   25  1.150   25 -4.743   27 -4.776    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.913 -2.904 -6.647
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.520   31  0.668   31 -5.840   30 -5.262    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.577 -4.931 -5.594

Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC: strength=-5.358 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.951   26  1.146   26 -4.753   22 -4.405    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.630 -3.844 -4.965
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.299   24  1.287   24 -4.531   28 -4.948    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.129 -6.308 -3.588
Christendom              3 12  867 1080 -4.643       0.771      -5.604      -5.033      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.373 -5.520 -4.546
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.100   34  0.341   34 -6.861   37 -8.483    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.237 -9.470 -7.495

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio Regional Campus       55  95 0.367    1 -2.940
Independent                33 146 0.184    2 -4.299
Hudson Valley              29  55 0.345    3 -4.540
Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC   8  24 0.250    4 -5.358

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr  8 19:30:33 2010

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