Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
East-West                8  9  0 1162 1261 -0.876    1  4.224    1 -0.941    1 -1.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.473 -1.552 -1.321
Miami-Middletown         5  7  0  904 1028 -1.538    2  3.373    2 -1.756    5 -2.178    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.627 -1.651 -2.705
Penn St-Abington        18  6  0 1762 1526 -2.321    3  3.334    3 -1.780    2 -1.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.387 -2.356 -1.455
Penn St-Brandywine      16  7  0 1817 1605 -2.526    4  3.142    4 -1.985    4 -2.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -1.915 -2.289
Southeastern Bible       7  8  0 1156 1298 -2.268    5  3.011    5 -2.131    8 -2.667    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.667 -1.965 -3.370
IU East                  8 18  0 2290 2752 -1.707    6  2.932    6 -2.230    7 -2.410    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.997 -0.135 -4.686
Ohio U-Eastern           1  7  0  490  761 -0.976    7  2.788    7 -2.383   11 -3.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -2.953 -3.102
Penn St-Hazleton        14  8  0 1521 1513 -2.865    8  2.779    8 -2.399    9 -2.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.429 -3.191 -2.612
Maryland Bible           3  4  0  548  562 -1.963    9  2.776    9 -2.400    6 -2.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -2.080 -2.516
Ohio St-Newark           2  4  0  448  572 -2.234   10  2.549   10 -2.686   14 -3.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.628 -2.713 -3.775
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Cloud Tech            4  1  0  385  366 -4.096   11  2.085   11 -3.217   22 -3.771    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.538 -3.619 -3.923
Ohio St-Lima             1  5  0  477  479 -1.904   12  1.989   12 -3.338    3 -2.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.566 -1.735 -2.273
Albany Pharmacy          3 12  0  884 1147 -2.570   13  1.979   13 -3.361   19 -3.656    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.377 -4.145 -3.168
Portland Bible           4 11  0  998 1168 -2.894   14  1.848   14 -3.562   16 -3.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -3.503 -3.639
Penn St-Schuylkill       6 12  0 1273 1446 -3.312   15  1.661   15 -3.732   21 -3.757    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583 -3.416 -4.098
Penn Tech                6 16  0 1561 1839 -3.058   16  1.625   16 -3.778   18 -3.615    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.636 -3.050 -4.181
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre     6  9  0  931 1165 -3.767   17  1.520   17 -3.835   32 -4.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.408 -5.089 -4.350
Franciscan               1 16  0 1088 1406 -1.843   18  1.508   18 -3.851   12 -3.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.487 -3.109 -2.992
Penn St-York             4 14  0 1247 1454 -3.222   19  1.429   19 -3.982   20 -3.661    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.573 -3.365 -3.958
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4  9  0  885  944 -3.322   20  1.427   20 -3.986   17 -3.608    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.488 -3.662 -3.554
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Shawnee Baptist          2  4  0  391  535 -4.047   21  1.388   21 -4.094   30 -4.680    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -4.254 -5.106
Concordia-St Louis       1  9  0  584  828 -2.755   22  1.380   22 -4.102   23 -3.889    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.407 -4.262 -3.516
Union NE                 2  6  0  554  637 -3.367   23  1.340   23 -4.179   24 -3.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.570 -3.710 -4.278
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  7  0  490  607 -1.609   24  1.309   24 -4.235   10 -2.974    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590 -2.604 -3.344
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  2  0   86  176 -2.121   25  1.296   25 -4.275   28 -4.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.822 -4.095
Berkeley                 2  7  0  543  656 -3.320   26  1.275   26 -4.350   26 -4.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.364 -4.604 -3.526
Akron-Wayne              0  5  0  277  497  1.054   27  1.249   27 -4.404   31 -4.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548 -4.525 -4.913
Miami-Hamilton           0  5  0  359  500 -2.125   28  1.204   28 -4.502   15 -3.425    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.664 -2.736 -4.113
Ohio U-Chillicothe       0  4  0  325  373 -2.375   29  1.155   29 -4.606   13 -3.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.668 -2.461 -3.875
Trinity Baptist          2 10  0  725 1014 -3.741   30  1.146   30 -4.638   34 -4.796    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.423 -5.107 -4.484
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 12  0  900 1137 -3.621   31  1.144   31 -4.639   29 -4.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.528 -4.356 -4.577
Ohio St-Mansfield        0 12  0  652 1212 -2.142   32  1.143   32 -4.640   27 -4.404    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -4.465 -4.344
Hampshire                0  1  0   42   95 -1.973   33  1.122   33 -4.701   40 -6.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.463 -6.428 -6.124
Eugene Bible             0  2  0  112  171 -3.332   34  1.110   34 -4.737   33 -4.754    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.430 -5.040 -4.469
Roanoke Bible            1  4  0  303  467 -4.250   35  1.097   35 -4.768   36 -5.402    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.609 -4.952 -5.853
Wright St-Lake           0  8  0  581  793 -2.486   36  1.090   36 -4.775   25 -4.057    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.672 -3.330 -4.784
Sarah Lawrence           3  4  0  390  448 -5.262   37  1.036   37 -4.921   35 -5.165    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -6.058 -4.271
Tyndale ON               1  3  0  230  301 -5.512   38  0.831   38 -5.357   38 -5.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.371 -6.188 -5.165
Pratt Institute          0  5  0  247  374 -4.376   39  0.682   39 -5.743   37 -5.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.300 -6.327 -4.768
Webb Institute           0  2  0   85  126 -6.218   40  0.453   40 -6.304   39 -6.071    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.322 -6.766 -5.375
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Patrick Henry            2  3  0  269  348 -7.055   41  0.416   41 -6.430   41 -6.964    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -7.545 -6.382


Hudson Val: strength=-4.600 (#5)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 13  0 1678 1655 -2.665       2.289      -2.999      -2.737      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.556 -2.512 -2.962
Berkeley                 2  7  0  543  656 -3.320   26  1.275   26 -4.350   26 -4.065    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.364 -4.604 -3.526
Sarah Lawrence           3  4  0  390  448 -5.262   37  1.036   37 -4.921   35 -5.165    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -6.058 -4.271
Pratt Institute          0  5  0  247  374 -4.376   39  0.682   39 -5.743   37 -5.547    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.300 -6.327 -4.768

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-3.125 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Miami-Middletown         5  7  0  904 1028 -1.538    2  3.373    2 -1.756    5 -2.178    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.627 -1.651 -2.705
Cincinnati-Clermont     19 14  0 2624 2385 -1.770       3.307      -1.806      -1.497      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.564 -1.235 -1.758
Ohio U-Eastern           1  7  0  490  761 -0.976    7  2.788    7 -2.383   11 -3.028    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -2.953 -3.102
Ohio St-Newark           2  4  0  448  572 -2.234   10  2.549   10 -2.686   14 -3.244    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.628 -2.713 -3.775
Ohio St-Lima             1  5  0  477  479 -1.904   12  1.989   12 -3.338    3 -2.004    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.566 -1.735 -2.273
Ohio U-Lancaster         0  7  0  490  607 -1.609   24  1.309   24 -4.235   10 -2.974    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.590 -2.604 -3.344
Ohio U-Zanesville        0  2  0   86  176 -2.121   25  1.296   25 -4.275   28 -4.458    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.410 -4.822 -4.095
Akron-Wayne              0  5  0  277  497  1.054   27  1.249   27 -4.404   31 -4.719    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.548 -4.525 -4.913
Miami-Hamilton           0  5  0  359  500 -2.125   28  1.204   28 -4.502   15 -3.425    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.664 -2.736 -4.113
Ohio U-Chillicothe       0  4  0  325  373 -2.375   29  1.155   29 -4.606   13 -3.168    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.668 -2.461 -3.875
Ohio St-Mansfield        0 12  0  652 1212 -2.142   32  1.143   32 -4.640   27 -4.404    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.486 -4.465 -4.344

Pacific Christian: strength=-2.714 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Southwestern AZ          6  8  0 1015 1061 -1.812       2.982      -2.169      -1.936      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.565 -1.672 -2.201
West Coast Baptist       7 12  0 1216 1322 -1.968       2.806      -2.371      -2.424      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.391 -2.860 -1.989
Multnomah Bible         13 13  0 1986 2028 -2.648       2.612      -2.599      -2.789      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.593 -2.407 -3.171
Golden St Baptist        6 18  0 1427 1909 -2.201       2.492      -2.769      -3.032      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.418 -3.363 -2.700
Portland Bible           4 11  0  998 1168 -2.894   14  1.848   14 -3.562   16 -3.571    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -3.503 -3.639

Penn St UAC: strength=-3.344 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Penn St-New Kensington  20  6  0 1909 1651 -2.473       3.400      -1.724      -2.015      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.408 -2.386 -1.645
Penn St-Abington        18  6  0 1762 1526 -2.321    3  3.334    3 -1.780    2 -1.906    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.387 -2.356 -1.455
Penn St-Brandywine      16  7  0 1817 1605 -2.526    4  3.142    4 -1.985    4 -2.102    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.547 -1.915 -2.289
Penn St-Hazleton        14  8  0 1521 1513 -2.865    8  2.779    8 -2.399    9 -2.901    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.429 -3.191 -2.612
Penn St-DuBois          12 14  0 1906 1989 -2.739       2.398      -2.868      -2.832      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.589 -2.466 -3.199
Penn St-Beaver           7 17  0 1678 1810 -2.697       1.904      -3.475      -2.968      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.497 -2.985 -2.950
Penn St-Schuylkill       6 12  0 1273 1446 -3.312   15  1.661   15 -3.732   21 -3.757    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583 -3.416 -4.098
Penn Tech                6 16  0 1561 1839 -3.058   16  1.625   16 -3.778   18 -3.615    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.636 -3.050 -4.181
Penn St-Fayette          5 19  0 1626 2060 -2.951       1.611      -3.786      -3.639      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.615 -3.164 -4.114
Penn St-Wilkes-Barre     6  9  0  931 1165 -3.767   17  1.520   17 -3.835   32 -4.720    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.408 -5.089 -4.350
Penn St-York             4 14  0 1247 1454 -3.222   19  1.429   19 -3.982   20 -3.661    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.573 -3.365 -3.958
Penn St-Worth Scranton   4  9  0  885  944 -3.322   20  1.427   20 -3.986   17 -3.608    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.488 -3.662 -3.554
Penn St-Gtr Allegheny    2 22  0 1369 2022 -3.246       1.172      -4.560      -4.315      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.412 -4.668 -3.962
Penn St-Mont Alto        2 12  0  900 1137 -3.621   31  1.144   31 -4.639   29 -4.467    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.528 -4.356 -4.577

Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC: strength=-6.612 (#6)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Christendom              7  9  0 1043 1068 -3.930       1.407      -4.044      -4.100      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.353 -4.679 -3.520
Roanoke Bible            1  4  0  303  467 -4.250   35  1.097   35 -4.768   36 -5.402    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.609 -4.952 -5.853
Patrick Henry            2  3  0  269  348 -7.055   41  0.416   41 -6.430   41 -6.964    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.353 -7.545 -6.382
Washington Bible         1 12  0  673 1075 -6.547       0.000      -7.490      -7.337      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.400 -7.736 -6.937

Independent: strength=-4.220 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
East-West                8  9  0 1162 1261 -0.876    1  4.224    1 -0.941    1 -1.437    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.473 -1.552 -1.321
Southeastern Bible       7  8  0 1156 1298 -2.268    5  3.011    5 -2.131    8 -2.667    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.667 -1.965 -3.370
Maryland Bible           3  4  0  548  562 -1.963    9  2.776    9 -2.400    6 -2.298    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -2.080 -2.516
Albany Pharmacy          3 12  0  884 1147 -2.570   13  1.979   13 -3.361   19 -3.656    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.377 -4.145 -3.168
Franciscan               1 16  0 1088 1406 -1.843   18  1.508   18 -3.851   12 -3.050    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.487 -3.109 -2.992
Shawnee Baptist          2  4  0  391  535 -4.047   21  1.388   21 -4.094   30 -4.680    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -4.254 -5.106
Concordia-St Louis       1  9  0  584  828 -2.755   22  1.380   22 -4.102   23 -3.889    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.407 -4.262 -3.516
Union NE                 2  6  0  554  637 -3.367   23  1.340   23 -4.179   24 -3.994    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.570 -3.710 -4.278
Trinity Baptist          2 10  0  725 1014 -3.741   30  1.146   30 -4.638   34 -4.796    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.423 -5.107 -4.484
Hampshire                0  1  0   42   95 -1.973   33  1.122   33 -4.701   40 -6.276    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.463 -6.428 -6.124
Eugene Bible             0  2  0  112  171 -3.332   34  1.110   34 -4.737   33 -4.754    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.430 -5.040 -4.469
Wright St-Lake           0  8  0  581  793 -2.486   36  1.090   36 -4.775   25 -4.057    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.672 -3.330 -4.784
Tyndale ON               1  3  0  230  301 -5.512   38  0.831   38 -5.357   38 -5.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.371 -6.188 -5.165
Webb Institute           0  2  0   85  126 -6.218   40  0.453   40 -6.304   39 -6.071    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.322 -6.766 -5.375

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                   W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
Pacific Christian           36  62   0 0.367    1 -2.714
Ohio Regional Campus        28  72   0 0.280    2 -3.125
Penn St UAC                122 171   0 0.416    3 -3.344
Independent                 30  94   0 0.242    4 -4.220
Hudson Val                  15  29   0 0.341    5 -4.600
Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC   11  28   0 0.282    6 -6.612

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.295 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Thu Apr 10 21:09:55 2008

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