Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.840    1  4.051    1 -1.398    2 -1.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613 -0.993 -1.961
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.907    2  3.991    2 -1.444    3 -1.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.618 -1.226 -2.241
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.027    3  3.590    3 -1.792    1 -1.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.714 -0.490 -2.351
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.182    4  3.300    4 -2.100    4 -1.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -1.230 -2.443
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.737    5  2.828    5 -2.443    6 -2.553    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.584 -2.189 -2.917
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.170    6  2.657    6 -2.599    7 -2.849    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -2.345 -3.354
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.160    7  2.450    7 -2.763    8 -2.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -2.871 -2.857
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.109    8  2.286    8 -2.916   17 -3.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.447 -3.896 -3.499
Shepherd Film            3  4  483  546 -2.637    9  2.172    9 -2.972    9 -2.911    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.519 -2.820 -3.002
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.230   10  1.912   10 -3.321   10 -3.027    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.655 -2.360 -3.694
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.854   11  1.842   11 -3.441    5 -2.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -1.971 -2.856
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.018   12  1.750   12 -3.521   16 -3.579    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.342 -3.815
St Cloud Tech            3  3  452  439 -3.436   13  1.742   13 -3.536   11 -3.147    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.557 -2.900 -3.394
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.612   14  1.720   14 -3.604   25 -4.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.512 -4.337 -4.462
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.688   15  1.708   15 -3.636   24 -4.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.367 -4.905 -3.888
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.074   16  1.684   17 -3.681   15 -3.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524 -3.297 -3.520
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.708   17  1.653   16 -3.640   19 -3.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -3.449 -4.429
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.145   18  1.472   18 -3.984   27 -4.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.264 -5.493 -3.708
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.792   19  1.418   19 -4.058   21 -4.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.482 -4.245 -4.122
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.295   20  1.402   20 -4.086   20 -4.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.305 -4.877 -3.392
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.158   21  1.327   21 -4.169   18 -3.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.531 -3.758 -4.042
Coll of the Bahamas      0  4  232  332 -1.341   22  1.260   23 -4.325   12 -3.159    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.477 -3.238 -3.079
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.369   23  1.257   22 -4.324   14 -3.389    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.361 -3.923 -2.854
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.579   24  1.236   24 -4.377   13 -3.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -3.392 -3.244
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.266   25  1.191   25 -4.493   29 -4.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.129 -6.284 -3.566
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.638   26  1.049   26 -4.714   28 -4.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.912 -2.885 -6.615
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.911   27  1.048   27 -4.716   23 -4.354    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.631 -3.791 -4.916
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.812   28  0.979   28 -4.903   26 -4.536    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -5.081 -3.990
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.522   29  0.972   29 -4.943   33 -6.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.338 -6.963 -5.721
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.500   30  0.915   30 -5.056   22 -4.240    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.434 -4.492 -3.989
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.459   31  0.905   31 -5.098   30 -4.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.698 -4.100 -5.822
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.495   32  0.659   32 -5.798   31 -5.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576 -4.919 -5.574
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.743   33  0.591   33 -6.002   34 -6.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.379 -6.957 -6.032
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.390   34  0.389   34 -6.691   36 -7.538    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.240 -8.513 -6.562
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.083   35  0.341   35 -6.815   38 -8.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.238 -9.533 -7.565
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.105   36  0.315   36 -6.911   32 -5.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.413 -5.588 -4.924
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.435   37  0.087   37 -7.803   35 -6.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.209 -8.003 -5.828
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.545   38  0.000   38 -8.133   37 -7.558    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -8.433 -6.683


Independent: strength=-4.285 (#2)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
East-West                7 17 1728 1999 -0.907    2  3.991    2 -1.444    3 -1.733    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.618 -1.226 -2.241
Maryland Bible           4 10 1068 1142 -1.182    4  3.300    4 -2.100    4 -1.837    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.641 -1.230 -2.443
Temple Baptist           9 21 2107 2627 -2.170    6  2.657    6 -2.599    7 -2.849    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.617 -2.345 -3.354
Wright St-Lake           3  7  751  843 -2.160    7  2.450    7 -2.763    8 -2.864    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -2.871 -2.857
Berkeley-Garret Mtn      2 12  772 1146 -2.109    8  2.286    8 -2.916   17 -3.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.447 -3.896 -3.499
Cooper Union             1  2  179  259 -3.612   14  1.720   14 -3.604   25 -4.400    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.512 -4.337 -4.462
Logan Chiropractic       1 10  548 1014 -2.688   15  1.708   15 -3.636   24 -4.396    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.367 -4.905 -3.888
St Louis Christian       2 18 1212 1736 -2.792   19  1.418   19 -4.058   21 -4.183    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.482 -4.245 -4.122
Trinity Baptist          3 10  776  942 -3.295   20  1.402   20 -4.086   20 -4.135    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.305 -4.877 -3.392
Concordia-St Louis       1 10  683  858 -2.579   24  1.236   24 -4.377   13 -3.318    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.478 -3.392 -3.244
Knoxville                0  4  150  433 -0.522   29  0.972   29 -4.943   33 -6.342    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.338 -6.963 -5.721
Union NE                 0  9  534  760 -2.500   30  0.915   30 -5.056   22 -4.240    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.434 -4.492 -3.989
Eugene Bible             0  6  455  723 -2.459   31  0.905   31 -5.098   30 -4.961    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.698 -4.100 -5.822
Shawnee Baptist          0  5  274  392 -5.105   36  0.315   36 -6.911   32 -5.256    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.413 -5.588 -4.924
Webb Institute           0  2   77  108 -7.435   37  0.087   37 -7.803   35 -6.916    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.209 -8.003 -5.828
Hampshire                0  3  127  236 -7.545   38  0.000   38 -8.133   37 -7.558    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.268 -8.433 -6.683

Hudson Valley: strength=-4.507 (#3)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Joseph's-Brooklyn    10 16 1800 2029 -2.823       2.655      -2.602      -3.020      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.587 -2.644 -3.396
Berkeley-NYC             4  9  870 1009 -3.074   16  1.684   17 -3.681   15 -3.408    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.524 -3.297 -3.520
Albany Pharmacy          6  7  970 1009 -3.708   17  1.653   16 -3.640   19 -3.939    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614 -3.449 -4.429
Culinary Institute       4  4  478  495 -4.145   18  1.472   18 -3.984   27 -4.600    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.264 -5.493 -3.708
Vaughn                   2 10  701  866 -3.812   28  0.979   28 -4.903   26 -4.536    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.358 -5.081 -3.990
Pratt Institute          1  5  314  486 -5.743   33  0.591   33 -6.002   34 -6.495    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.379 -6.957 -6.032
Sarah Lawrence           2  4  275  433 -7.390   34  0.389   34 -6.691   36 -7.538    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.240 -8.513 -6.562

Ohio Regional Campus: strength=-2.914 (#1)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Cincinnati-Clermont     26  7 2886 2329 -1.396       5.071      -0.613      -0.727      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.620 -0.211 -1.243
Miami-Middletown        12  5 1420 1250 -1.840    1  4.051    1 -1.398    2 -1.477    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613 -0.993 -1.961
Ohio U-Eastern           4  7  919  949 -1.027    3  3.590    3 -1.792    1 -1.420    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.714 -0.490 -2.351
Ohio U-Lancaster         3  7  734  842 -1.737    5  2.828    5 -2.443    6 -2.553    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.584 -2.189 -2.917
Ohio U-Chillicothe       2  7  688  805 -2.230   10  1.912   10 -3.321   10 -3.027    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.655 -2.360 -3.694
Akron-Wayne              1  6  544  613 -1.854   11  1.842   11 -3.441    5 -2.413    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.603 -1.971 -2.856
Ohio St-Newark           4  9  888 1108 -3.018   12  1.750   12 -3.521   16 -3.579    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -3.342 -3.815
Ohio U-Zanesville        1  4  334  427 -3.158   21  1.327   21 -4.169   18 -3.900    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.531 -3.758 -4.042
Miami-Hamilton           0 15  833 1338 -1.369   23  1.257   22 -4.324   14 -3.389    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.361 -3.923 -2.854
Ohio St-Mansfield        2 16 1324 2107 -3.638   26  1.049   26 -4.714   28 -4.750    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.912 -2.885 -6.615
Ohio St-Lima             0 12  690 1265 -3.495   32  0.659   32 -5.798   31 -5.247    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.576 -4.919 -5.574

Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC: strength=-5.321 (#4)
                                                 STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Patrick Henry            3  1  207  193 -5.266   25  1.191   25 -4.493   29 -4.925    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.129 -6.284 -3.566
Washington Bible         2  6  566  673 -3.911   27  1.048   27 -4.716   23 -4.354    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.631 -3.791 -4.916
Christendom              3 12  867 1080 -4.610       0.742      -5.572      -5.016      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.373 -5.504 -4.528
Mid-Atlantic Chr         0  5  183  467 -3.083   35  0.341   35 -6.815   38 -8.549    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.238 -9.533 -7.565

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
Ohio Regional Campus       55  95 0.367    1 -2.914
Independent                33 146 0.184    2 -4.285
Hudson Valley              29  55 0.345    3 -4.507
Shenandoah & Chesapeke AC   8  24 0.250    4 -5.321

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.277 points in main ratings
     0.031 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Wed Mar 17 13:06:17 2010

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