Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Tennessee Temple        17 14  0 2450 2234 -0.539    1  5.449    1 -0.617    1 -0.468    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567 -0.202 -0.733
Pensacola Christian     14 14  0 2001 2014 -1.400    2  4.503    2 -1.377    3 -1.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -1.756 -1.329
Central Baptist         10 22  0 2604 2707 -0.929    3  4.282    3 -1.564    2 -1.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.756 -0.178 -2.367
Ecclesia                 9 18  0 2070 2342 -1.304    4  4.160    4 -1.687    4 -1.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.663 -1.089 -2.445
Carver Bible             9 17  0 2093 2558 -1.763    5  4.004    5 -1.855    5 -2.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.845 -0.790 -3.819
Walla Walla              4 19  0 1695 2188 -1.394    6  3.834    6 -2.033    6 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.758 -1.289 -3.499


NCCAA-I Central: strength=-1.046 (#8)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
MidAmerica Nazarene     31  2  0 2768 2165  0.384       8.390       1.662       1.489      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.545  1.660  1.318
Dallas Baptist          11 21  0 2284 2459  0.057       5.932      -0.271      -0.326      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.570 -0.050 -0.601
SW Assem of God          6 22  0 1969 2190 -0.468       4.721      -1.171      -0.911      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.506 -0.898 -0.923
York NE                  8 22  0 1925 2149 -0.621       4.637      -1.261      -1.072      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.401 -1.478 -0.665
Oklahoma Wesleyan       10 19  0 1794 2043 -1.016       4.598      -1.301      -1.334      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.354 -1.920 -0.747
Central Baptist         10 22  0 2604 2707 -0.929    3  4.282    3 -1.564    2 -1.272    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.756 -0.178 -2.367
Ecclesia                 9 18  0 2070 2342 -1.304    4  4.160    4 -1.687    4 -1.767    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.663 -1.089 -2.445
Central Christian KS     7 22  0 1703 1945 -1.098       4.108      -1.747      -1.489      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.285 -2.330 -0.648

NCCAA-I East: strength=-0.166 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Mt Vernon Nazarene      25  6  0 2608 2212  0.095       7.392       0.873       0.726      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.598  1.121  0.332
Malone                  19 14  0 2774 2599 -0.241       6.158      -0.108       0.095      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.677  0.834 -0.644
Roberts Wesleyan        16 13  0 2111 2125 -0.491       5.884      -0.313      -0.550      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.478 -0.653 -0.446
Nyack                    9 18  0 1814 1918 -0.236       5.578      -0.536      -0.417      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.443 -0.656 -0.177
Geneva                  14 16  0 2307 2180 -0.665       5.163      -0.823      -0.485      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.529 -0.378 -0.592

NCCAA-I Mideast: strength=-0.728 (#5)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Bluefield VA            20 10  0 2653 2547 -0.272       6.507       0.183      -0.056      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.808  1.280 -1.392
Asbury                  21  5  0 2154 1765 -1.278       5.979      -0.243      -0.712      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.498 -0.731 -0.692
Oakland City            16 11  0 2274 1929 -0.704       5.890      -0.307      -0.373      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.554 -0.162 -0.584
Mid-Continent           16 21  0 3117 3204 -0.839       5.160      -0.826      -0.892      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.769  0.266 -2.050
Bryan                    5 23  0 1835 2128 -0.612       4.353      -1.485      -1.191      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.408 -1.568 -0.813

NCCAA-I Midwest: strength=0.569 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Huntington IN           29  4  0 2636 2275  0.357       8.026       1.363       0.960      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.567  1.223  0.697
Indiana Wesleyan        30  5  0 2724 2104  0.330       7.896       1.240       1.248      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.374  0.740  1.756
Cedarville              23  7  0 2510 2271  0.154       7.269       0.803       0.605      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.668  1.304 -0.094
Grace IN                23 12  0 2893 2698  0.134       6.925       0.480       0.410      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.663  1.088 -0.268
Spring Arbor            17 15  0 2361 2267 -0.015       6.238      -0.034       0.063      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.524  0.148 -0.021
Taylor                  13 18  0 1899 1959 -0.169       5.821      -0.362      -0.421      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.174 -1.654  0.812

NCCAA-I North Central: strength=-0.599 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Olivet Nazarene         17 11  0 2083 1954  0.062       6.674       0.310       0.303      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.484  0.228  0.379
Bethel IN               21 15  0 2971 2874  0.015       6.518       0.192       0.199      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.731  1.183 -0.785
Northwestern MN         22  9  0 2472 2191 -0.830       5.847      -0.336      -0.312      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.566 -0.051 -0.573
Bethany Lutheran        14 13  0 2097 2050 -0.629       5.389      -0.677      -0.549      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.619 -0.063 -1.034
Trinity Int'l           14 19  0 2385 2451 -0.639       5.137      -0.845      -0.631      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.519 -0.564 -0.698
Trinity Christian        9 18  0 1956 2001 -0.747       4.616      -1.283      -0.932      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.511 -0.898 -0.967
Greenville              12 12  0 1899 1897 -1.527       4.368      -1.472      -1.535      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.669 -0.830 -2.241
Judson IL                5 23  0 1998 2317 -0.620       4.358      -1.480      -1.226      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.634 -0.676 -1.776

NCCAA-I Northwest: strength=-1.011 (#7)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Warner Pacific          28  6  0 3068 2719  0.026       7.542       0.933       0.473      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.757  1.574 -0.627
Corban                   5 25  0 2143 2518 -0.243       4.690      -1.202      -0.989      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.625 -0.477 -1.501
Walla Walla              4 19  0 1695 2188 -1.394    6  3.834    6 -2.033    6 -2.394    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.758 -1.289 -3.499

NCCAA-I South: strength=-0.580 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Faulkner                24 10  0 2475 2227  0.049       6.980       0.531       0.455      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.430  0.162  0.749
Emmanuel GA             26 10  0 2813 2424 -0.496       6.415       0.104       0.043      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.523  0.124 -0.038
Chowan                  11 14  0 1850 1802  0.083       6.003      -0.215       0.034      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.479 -0.065  0.133
North Greenville        16 13  0 2204 2159 -0.582       5.927      -0.276      -0.398      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.580 -0.078 -0.717
Tennessee Temple        17 14  0 2450 2234 -0.539    1  5.449    1 -0.617    1 -0.468    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.567 -0.202 -0.733
Palm Beach Atlantic      3 26  0 1998 2302  0.470       5.441      -0.624      -0.290      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.597  0.104 -0.683
Pensacola Christian     14 14  0 2001 2014 -1.400    2  4.503    2 -1.377    3 -1.542    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.450 -1.756 -1.329
Southern Wesleyan        5 25  0 1966 2288 -0.776       4.254      -1.593      -1.370      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.469 -1.507 -1.233
Carver Bible             9 17  0 2093 2558 -1.763    5  4.004    5 -1.855    5 -2.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.845 -0.790 -3.819

NCCAA-I West: strength=-0.879 (#6)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
The Master's College    11 18  0 1987 2088  0.505       6.495       0.174       0.252      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.459  0.075  0.428
Hope Int'l               4 25  0 1841 2377  0.125       5.279      -0.773      -1.046      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.497 -1.069 -1.023
Simpson CA               7 22  0 2075 2359 -0.961       4.253      -1.595      -1.392      0.0000      0.0000           0  3.599 -0.994 -1.791

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NCCAA-I Midwest           135  61   0 0.689    1  0.569
NCCAA-I East               83  67   0 0.553    2 -0.166
NCCAA-I South             125 143   0 0.466    3 -0.580
NCCAA-I North Central     114 120   0 0.487    4 -0.599
NCCAA-I Mideast            78  70   0 0.527    5 -0.728
NCCAA-I West               22  65   0 0.253    6 -0.879
NCCAA-I Northwest          37  50   0 0.425    7 -1.011
NCCAA-I Central            92 148   0 0.383    8 -1.046

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.300 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:25:20 2007

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