Dolphin Ratings - College Basketball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and six ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
RPI Rating. Included only because of common real-life usage. The RPI rating has many statistical problems. The football RPI rating is based on the BCS formula, and approximates the schedule, loss, and quality win components.
Pseudopoll. The pseudopoll contains an AI evaluation of each team's season, designed to mimic human decision-making processes. There are 121 voters, each with slightly different biases.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

Because these ratings contain no prejudices regarding team or conference strengths, they tend to be quite inaccurate early in the seasons. College football appears to take at least 5 games per team before even remotely reasonable ratings are produced; acceptable ratings are produced with 8 games per team; excellent ratings unfortunately require 14 games per team.

Rankings by division: Overall NCAA-I NCAA-II NCAA-III NAIA-I NAIA-II NCCAA-I NCCAA-II USCAA-I USCAA-II CIS CCAA NBCAA Indep

Full Ranking

                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             33  4  0 2817 2229  0.167    1  7.808    1  1.159    1  1.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.402  0.726  1.528
Ottawa ON               29  6  0 2716 2299  0.166    2  7.569    2  0.960    2  0.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.522  0.774  0.622
UBC                     33  6  0 3283 2868 -0.107    3  7.351    4  0.838    5  0.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.990  0.060
Brandon                 35  6  0 3393 3125 -0.106    4  7.327    3  0.841    7  0.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.647  0.961 -0.259
Concordia QC            26  3  0 2386 2025 -0.176    5  7.293    5  0.825    4  0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583  0.981  0.316
York ON                 23 10  0 2579 2335  0.011    6  6.888    6  0.445    6  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.593  0.765  0.017
Victoria                26 10  0 2777 2479 -0.106    7  6.839    7  0.418    9  0.278    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.464  0.121  0.435
Windsor                 25 11  0 2723 2459 -0.017    8  6.789    8  0.394    8  0.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.511  0.314  0.247
Toronto                 23 10  0 2487 2087  0.062    9  6.774    9  0.382    3  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.444  0.451  0.929
Brock                   24 10  0 2702 2485 -0.158   10  6.696   10  0.330   10  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613  0.567 -0.356
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Francis Xavier       22  7  0 2280 2025 -0.413   11  6.539   11  0.211   14  0.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.560  0.286 -0.188
McMaster                21 13  0 2630 2494 -0.115   12  6.405   12  0.095   12  0.097    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.601  0.505 -0.312
UCCB                    22 11  0 2448 2256 -0.300   13  6.402   13  0.092   11  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.475 -0.009  0.220
Queen's ON              22 14  0 2487 2389 -0.213   14  6.384   14  0.081   18 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.386 -0.616  0.309
Saskatchewan            22 17  0 3062 2951 -0.094   15  6.300   15  0.032   13  0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.562  0.299 -0.193
Alberta                 23 13  0 2911 2703 -0.289   16  6.288   16  0.020   15  0.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.592  0.371 -0.370
Laval                   18 14  0 2296 2276 -0.256   17  6.171   17 -0.099   19 -0.221    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.472 -0.346 -0.097
Acadia                  23 16  0 2718 2736 -0.401   18  6.114   18 -0.133   25 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.438 -0.646 -0.126
Simon Fraser            17 14  0 2214 2180 -0.390   19  5.967   19 -0.255   23 -0.314    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.403 -0.712  0.084
Calgary                 16 19  0 2833 2837 -0.143   20  5.926   20 -0.278   16 -0.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.679  0.628 -0.873
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Guelph                  15 18  0 2199 2259 -0.188   21  5.914   21 -0.285   20 -0.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.385 -0.704  0.230
Winnipeg                17 17  0 2582 2534 -0.312   22  5.874   22 -0.323   21 -0.239    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539 -0.090 -0.387
Western ON              14 16  0 2139 2050 -0.228   23  5.817   23 -0.364   17 -0.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -0.307  0.052
Regina                  14 21  0 2758 2762 -0.191   24  5.667   24 -0.457   22 -0.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611  0.147 -0.758
Laurentian              11 18  0 2046 2119 -0.184   25  5.618   25 -0.493   26 -0.426    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.525 -0.336 -0.516
Trinity Western         12 18  0 2524 2662 -0.296   26  5.603   26 -0.508   29 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.800  0.736 -1.870
St Mary's NS            17 18  0 2560 2472 -0.483   27  5.590   27 -0.526   24 -0.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -0.416 -0.259
Manitoba                14 19  0 2447 2495 -0.389   28  5.519   28 -0.569   27 -0.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -0.409 -0.574
Laurier                 12 18  0 2091 2291 -0.447   29  5.502   29 -0.572   35 -0.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -0.659 -0.940
UPEI                    13 19  0 2314 2379 -0.424   30  5.428   30 -0.638   30 -0.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.532 -0.461 -0.700
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UQAM                     8 16  0 1765 1872 -0.319   31  5.355   31 -0.698   31 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.599 -0.183 -0.985
Bishop's                 8 14  0 1560 1618 -0.475   32  5.270   32 -0.784   28 -0.563    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.500 -0.575 -0.550
Waterloo                10 21  0 2078 2249 -0.411   33  5.190   33 -0.802   34 -0.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.452 -0.992 -0.584
Lethbridge U.           10 25  0 2598 2771 -0.285   34  5.175   34 -0.815   33 -0.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -0.464 -0.887
McGill                   9 22  0 2137 2319 -0.291   35  5.169   35 -0.820   32 -0.605    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.637 -0.573
Dalhousie               13 20  0 2326 2505 -0.687   36  5.131   36 -0.851   38 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -0.941 -1.066
Fraser Valley           12 21  0 2521 2708 -0.657   37  5.061   37 -0.913   36 -0.917    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607 -0.483 -1.351
Ryerson                 10 24  0 2277 2555 -0.568   38  4.966   38 -1.001   37 -0.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498 -0.950 -0.905
UNB                      7 23  0 2173 2445 -0.661   39  4.644   39 -1.253   40 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633 -0.544 -1.636
Memorial                 6 23  0 2093 2324 -0.653   40  4.563   40 -1.344   39 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -0.664 -1.472
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Thompson Rivers          3 29  0 2537 2924 -0.577   41  4.148   41 -1.699   41 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.771  0.017 -2.319
Lakehead                 1 31  0 1939 2483 -0.512   42  4.055   43 -1.807   42 -1.406    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.420 -1.739 -1.072
RMC                      3 32  0 1979 2648 -0.774   43  4.050   42 -1.798   43 -1.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.345 -2.367 -1.129


CIS-Atlantic: strength=-0.570 (#4)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
St Francis Xavier       22  7  0 2280 2025 -0.413   11  6.539   11  0.211   14  0.049    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.560  0.286 -0.188
UCCB                    22 11  0 2448 2256 -0.300   13  6.402   13  0.092   11  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.475 -0.009  0.220
Acadia                  23 16  0 2718 2736 -0.401   18  6.114   18 -0.133   25 -0.386    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.438 -0.646 -0.126
St Mary's NS            17 18  0 2560 2472 -0.483   27  5.590   27 -0.526   24 -0.338    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.484 -0.416 -0.259
UPEI                    13 19  0 2314 2379 -0.424   30  5.428   30 -0.638   30 -0.580    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.532 -0.461 -0.700
Dalhousie               13 20  0 2326 2505 -0.687   36  5.131   36 -0.851   38 -1.003    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.518 -0.941 -1.066
UNB                      7 23  0 2173 2445 -0.661   39  4.644   39 -1.253   40 -1.090    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.633 -0.544 -1.636
Memorial                 6 23  0 2093 2324 -0.653   40  4.563   40 -1.344   39 -1.068    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.600 -0.664 -1.472

CIS-Canada West: strength=-0.252 (#2)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
UBC                     33  6  0 3283 2868 -0.107    3  7.351    4  0.838    5  0.525    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.614  0.990  0.060
Brandon                 35  6  0 3393 3125 -0.106    4  7.327    3  0.841    7  0.351    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.647  0.961 -0.259
Victoria                26 10  0 2777 2479 -0.106    7  6.839    7  0.418    9  0.278    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.464  0.121  0.435
Saskatchewan            22 17  0 3062 2951 -0.094   15  6.300   15  0.032   13  0.053    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.562  0.299 -0.193
Alberta                 23 13  0 2911 2703 -0.289   16  6.288   16  0.020   15  0.001    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.592  0.371 -0.370
Simon Fraser            17 14  0 2214 2180 -0.390   19  5.967   19 -0.255   23 -0.314    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.403 -0.712  0.084
Calgary                 16 19  0 2833 2837 -0.143   20  5.926   20 -0.278   16 -0.122    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.679  0.628 -0.873
Winnipeg                17 17  0 2582 2534 -0.312   22  5.874   22 -0.323   21 -0.239    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.539 -0.090 -0.387
Regina                  14 21  0 2758 2762 -0.191   24  5.667   24 -0.457   22 -0.305    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.611  0.147 -0.758
Trinity Western         12 18  0 2524 2662 -0.296   26  5.603   26 -0.508   29 -0.567    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.800  0.736 -1.870
Manitoba                14 19  0 2447 2495 -0.389   28  5.519   28 -0.569   27 -0.492    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.523 -0.409 -0.574
Lethbridge U.           10 25  0 2598 2771 -0.285   34  5.175   34 -0.815   33 -0.676    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.554 -0.464 -0.887
Fraser Valley           12 21  0 2521 2708 -0.657   37  5.061   37 -0.913   36 -0.917    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.607 -0.483 -1.351
Thompson Rivers          3 29  0 2537 2924 -0.577   41  4.148   41 -1.699   41 -1.151    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.771  0.017 -2.319

CIS-OUA: strength=-0.152 (#1)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Carleton ON             33  4  0 2817 2229  0.167    1  7.808    1  1.159    1  1.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.402  0.726  1.528
Ottawa ON               29  6  0 2716 2299  0.166    2  7.569    2  0.960    2  0.698    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.522  0.774  0.622
York ON                 23 10  0 2579 2335  0.011    6  6.888    6  0.445    6  0.391    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.593  0.765  0.017
Windsor                 25 11  0 2723 2459 -0.017    8  6.789    8  0.394    8  0.280    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.511  0.314  0.247
Toronto                 23 10  0 2487 2087  0.062    9  6.774    9  0.382    3  0.690    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.444  0.451  0.929
Brock                   24 10  0 2702 2485 -0.158   10  6.696   10  0.330   10  0.105    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.613  0.567 -0.356
McMaster                21 13  0 2630 2494 -0.115   12  6.405   12  0.095   12  0.097    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.601  0.505 -0.312
Queen's ON              22 14  0 2487 2389 -0.213   14  6.384   14  0.081   18 -0.153    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.386 -0.616  0.309
Guelph                  15 18  0 2199 2259 -0.188   21  5.914   21 -0.285   20 -0.237    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.385 -0.704  0.230
Western ON              14 16  0 2139 2050 -0.228   23  5.817   23 -0.364   17 -0.127    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.459 -0.307  0.052
Laurentian              11 18  0 2046 2119 -0.184   25  5.618   25 -0.493   26 -0.426    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.525 -0.336 -0.516
Laurier                 12 18  0 2091 2291 -0.447   29  5.502   29 -0.572   35 -0.800    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.537 -0.659 -0.940
Waterloo                10 21  0 2078 2249 -0.411   33  5.190   33 -0.802   34 -0.788    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.452 -0.992 -0.584
Ryerson                 10 24  0 2277 2555 -0.568   38  4.966   38 -1.001   37 -0.928    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.498 -0.950 -0.905
Lakehead                 1 31  0 1939 2483 -0.512   42  4.055   43 -1.807   42 -1.406    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.420 -1.739 -1.072
RMC                      3 32  0 1979 2648 -0.774   43  4.050   42 -1.798   43 -1.748    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.345 -2.367 -1.129

QSSF: strength=-0.316 (#3)
                                                    STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI     RPI         POLL   
TEAM                     W  L  T   PF   PA  SCHED  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF
Concordia QC            26  3  0 2386 2025 -0.176    5  7.293    5  0.825    4  0.649    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.583  0.981  0.316
Laval                   18 14  0 2296 2276 -0.256   17  6.171   17 -0.099   19 -0.221    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.472 -0.346 -0.097
UQAM                     8 16  0 1765 1872 -0.319   31  5.355   31 -0.698   31 -0.584    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.599 -0.183 -0.985
Bishop's                 8 14  0 1560 1618 -0.475   32  5.270   32 -0.784   28 -0.563    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.500 -0.575 -0.550
McGill                   9 22  0 2137 2319 -0.291   35  5.169   35 -0.820   32 -0.605    1 0.0000    1 0.0000    1      0  3.495 -0.637 -0.573

Conference Strengths
CONFERENCE                  W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
CIS-OUA                   276 256   0 0.519    1 -0.152
CIS-Canada West           254 235   0 0.519    2 -0.252
QSSF                       69  69   0 0.500    3 -0.316
CIS-Atlantic              123 137   0 0.473    4 -0.570

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.300 points in main ratings
     0.032 points in improved RPI
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:






Team Strength vs. Time Plot:





posted: Mon Dec 31 14:25:20 2007

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.