Dolphin Ratings - Women's National Basketball Association

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT     31 11 3125 2948 -0.023 19.792    1  1.137    1  0.356    2  0.195    1 0.5527  3.557  0.641 -0.251  0.000
LOS ANGELES 29 14 3153 3041  0.018 21.097    2  1.017    2  0.283    4  0.139    2 0.5411  3.561  0.600 -0.322  0.000
HOUSTON     21 16 2440 2325  0.006 17.839    3  0.752    4  0.092    1  0.201    3 0.5133  3.352 -0.171  0.574  0.000
SACRAMENTO  22 18 2676 2626  0.047 20.280    4  0.732    3  0.094    5  0.075    4 0.5133  3.403 -0.100  0.250  0.000
CONNECTICUT 20 18 2656 2689  0.012 19.116    5  0.653    5  0.045    9 -0.025    5 0.5083  3.511  0.229 -0.278  0.000
SEATTLE     18 16 2388 2274  0.016 16.507    6  0.641    7  0.028    3  0.144    6 0.5056  3.473  0.242  0.046  0.000
MINNESOTA   19 18 2587 2596  0.024 18.684    7  0.621    6  0.031    8 -0.017    7 0.5049  3.510  0.230 -0.265  0.000
CLEVELAND   18 19 2432 2422  0.013 18.486    8  0.555    8 -0.017    7 -0.012    8 0.4998  3.365 -0.334  0.311  0.000
CHARLOTTE   18 18 2345 2331 -0.021 17.503    9  0.546    9 -0.021    6 -0.011    9 0.4985  3.345 -0.407  0.386  0.000
INDIANA     16 18 2337 2321  0.002 16.838   10  0.495   10 -0.056   10 -0.026   10 0.4924  3.454 -0.003 -0.048  0.000
TEAM         W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW YORK    16 18 2243 2256 -0.017 16.706   11  0.475   11 -0.062   11 -0.028   11 0.4909  3.392 -0.248  0.192  0.000
SAN ANTONIO 12 22 2215 2427 -0.019 17.539   12  0.253   12 -0.210   14 -0.294   12 0.4650  3.461 -0.244 -0.344  0.000
WASHINGTON   9 25 2330 2498 -0.031 17.239   13  0.054   13 -0.356   13 -0.230   13 0.4463  3.531  0.105 -0.565  0.000
PHOENIX      8 26 2097 2270 -0.005 17.575   14  0.000   14 -0.395   12 -0.229   14 0.4399  3.320 -0.721  0.264  0.000

WESTERN CONFERENCE
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES 29 14 3153 3041  0.018 21.097    2  1.017    2  0.283    4  0.139    2 0.5411  3.561  0.600 -0.322  0.000
HOUSTON     21 16 2440 2325  0.006 17.839    3  0.752    4  0.092    1  0.201    3 0.5133  3.352 -0.171  0.574  0.000
SACRAMENTO  22 18 2676 2626  0.047 20.280    4  0.732    3  0.094    5  0.075    4 0.5133  3.403 -0.100  0.250  0.000
SEATTLE     18 16 2388 2274  0.016 16.507    6  0.641    7  0.028    3  0.144    6 0.5056  3.473  0.242  0.046  0.000
MINNESOTA   19 18 2587 2596  0.024 18.684    7  0.621    6  0.031    8 -0.017    7 0.5049  3.510  0.230 -0.265  0.000
SAN ANTONIO 12 22 2215 2427 -0.019 17.539   12  0.253   12 -0.210   14 -0.294   12 0.4650  3.461 -0.244 -0.344  0.000
PHOENIX      8 26 2097 2270 -0.005 17.575   14  0.000   14 -0.395   12 -0.229   14 0.4399  3.320 -0.721  0.264  0.000

EASTERN CONFERENCE
                                            STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM         W  L   PF   PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT     31 11 3125 2948 -0.023 19.792    1  1.137    1  0.356    2  0.195    1 0.5527  3.557  0.641 -0.251  0.000
CONNECTICUT 20 18 2656 2689  0.012 19.116    5  0.653    5  0.045    9 -0.025    5 0.5083  3.511  0.229 -0.278  0.000
CLEVELAND   18 19 2432 2422  0.013 18.486    8  0.555    8 -0.017    7 -0.012    8 0.4998  3.365 -0.334  0.311  0.000
CHARLOTTE   18 18 2345 2331 -0.021 17.503    9  0.546    9 -0.021    6 -0.011    9 0.4985  3.345 -0.407  0.386  0.000
INDIANA     16 18 2337 2321  0.002 16.838   10  0.495   10 -0.056   10 -0.026   10 0.4924  3.454 -0.003 -0.048  0.000
NEW YORK    16 18 2243 2256 -0.017 16.706   11  0.475   11 -0.062   11 -0.028   11 0.4909  3.392 -0.248  0.192  0.000
WASHINGTON   9 25 2330 2498 -0.031 17.239   13  0.054   13 -0.356   13 -0.230   13 0.4463  3.531  0.105 -0.565  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
WESTERN CONFERENCE 129 130 0.498    1  0.001
EASTERN CONFERENCE 128 127 0.502    2 -0.023

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.407 points in main ratings (0.226 for semineutral)
     0.032 points in improved RPI (0.023 for semineutral)
Average of 2.15 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:24 2007
games through: Tue Sep 16 2003

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