Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        61 34 301 246  0.018 48.130    1  0.250    1  0.254    4  0.183    1 0.5355    5  1.081    2  0.335   11  0.031
BRUINS       61 33 291 203 -0.040 45.277    2  0.233    2  0.225    1  0.294    2 0.5322   23  0.861    5  0.194    2  0.394
BLUES        54 34 262 211  0.022 44.759    3  0.213    4  0.203    5  0.183    4 0.5293   22  0.871   10  0.093    5  0.273
AVALANCHE    55 34 270 242  0.014 45.089    4  0.211    3  0.203    9  0.109    3 0.5299    8  1.051    3  0.225   14 -0.006
PENGUINS     58 37 284 240 -0.006 47.289    5  0.194    6  0.181    6  0.152    6 0.5250   17  0.985    6  0.190    8  0.113
SHARKS       54 35 271 226  0.015 45.036    6  0.192    5  0.181    7  0.147    5 0.5277   14  0.999    4  0.202    9  0.092
KINGS        62 46 294 244  0.051 56.148    7  0.184    7  0.164    3  0.197    7 0.5240   28  0.730   18 -0.040    1  0.435
BLACKHAWKS   57 44 325 275  0.041 52.158    8  0.150    8  0.138    2  0.199    8 0.5203    2  1.139    1  0.422   15 -0.024
CANADIENS    56 43 266 250  0.011 50.129    9  0.117    9  0.118   12  0.047    9 0.5160   24  0.855   20 -0.060    7  0.155
RANGERS      58 48 280 248  0.007 53.408   10  0.081   10  0.085    8  0.118   10 0.5123   25  0.789   19 -0.059    3  0.295
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WILD         49 46 242 241  0.037 49.100   11  0.046   11  0.048   11  0.053   11 0.5085   27  0.745   26 -0.169    4  0.276
LIGHTNING    46 40 250 231 -0.028 42.211   12  0.038   12  0.034   14  0.038   12 0.5056   16  0.988   12  0.080   13 -0.004
BLUE JACKETS 45 43 249 237 -0.006 43.955   13  0.021   13  0.010   13  0.041   13 0.5019   15  0.989   11  0.084   12 -0.003
FLYERS       44 44 247 252 -0.006 44.088   14  0.008   14 -0.008   15 -0.018   14 0.4986    7  1.055    9  0.103   22 -0.138
STARS        42 46 253 248  0.026 45.054   15 -0.003   15 -0.025   10  0.066   15 0.4982   10  1.034    8  0.162   17 -0.031
PREDATORS    38 44 216 242  0.015 41.869   16 -0.032   16 -0.054   21 -0.097   16 0.4925   12  1.015   17 -0.023   25 -0.170
RED WINGS    40 47 228 244 -0.009 43.568   17 -0.053   17 -0.076   20 -0.064   18 0.4888   20  0.924   22 -0.095   18 -0.033
JETS         37 45 227 237  0.011 41.680   18 -0.054   18 -0.077   16 -0.045   17 0.4898   13  1.012   16  0.025   21 -0.115
CAPITALS     38 44 235 240 -0.023 40.586   19 -0.056   19 -0.079   18 -0.061   20 0.4883    9  1.044   15  0.046   24 -0.169
MAPLE LEAFS  38 44 231 256 -0.034 40.381   20 -0.065   20 -0.084   25 -0.138   21 0.4874    4  1.125   13  0.068   26 -0.344
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COYOTES      37 45 216 231 -0.005 41.176   21 -0.067   21 -0.088   17 -0.053   19 0.4883   19  0.929   21 -0.078   16 -0.028
SENATORS     37 45 236 265 -0.027 40.535   22 -0.084   22 -0.101   24 -0.106   23 0.4853    1  1.177    7  0.166   28 -0.378
CANUCKS      36 46 196 223 -0.003 41.311   23 -0.091   23 -0.107   22 -0.103   22 0.4854   26  0.786   28 -0.284   10  0.078
HURRICANES   36 46 207 230 -0.020 40.738   24 -0.106   24 -0.118   23 -0.106   24 0.4826   21  0.906   25 -0.157   19 -0.054
FLAMES       35 47 209 241 -0.001 41.429   25 -0.115   25 -0.124   26 -0.155   25 0.4825   18  0.955   24 -0.151   23 -0.159
DEVILS       35 47 197 208 -0.021 40.629   26 -0.128   26 -0.136   19 -0.062   26 0.4797   29  0.698   29 -0.332    6  0.209
ISLANDERS    34 48 225 267 -0.017 40.934   27 -0.155   27 -0.154   27 -0.173   27 0.4768    3  1.138   14  0.050   30 -0.395
OILERS       29 53 203 270  0.002 41.722   28 -0.240   28 -0.246   28 -0.271   28 0.4654    6  1.056   23 -0.150   29 -0.393
PANTHERS     29 53 196 268 -0.022 40.988   29 -0.250   29 -0.260   29 -0.294   29 0.4620   11  1.019   27 -0.216   27 -0.371
SABRES       21 61 157 248 -0.021 41.166   30 -0.438   30 -0.425   30 -0.405   30 0.4388   30  0.678   30 -0.694   20 -0.115

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DUCKS        61 34 301 246  0.018 48.130    1  0.250    1  0.254    4  0.183    1 0.5355    5  1.081    2  0.335   11  0.031
SHARKS       54 35 271 226  0.015 45.036    6  0.192    5  0.181    7  0.147    5 0.5277   14  0.999    4  0.202    9  0.092
KINGS        62 46 294 244  0.051 56.148    7  0.184    7  0.164    3  0.197    7 0.5240   28  0.730   18 -0.040    1  0.435
COYOTES      37 45 216 231 -0.005 41.176   21 -0.067   21 -0.088   17 -0.053   19 0.4883   19  0.929   21 -0.078   16 -0.028
CANUCKS      36 46 196 223 -0.003 41.311   23 -0.091   23 -0.107   22 -0.103   22 0.4854   26  0.786   28 -0.284   10  0.078
FLAMES       35 47 209 241 -0.001 41.429   25 -0.115   25 -0.124   26 -0.155   25 0.4825   18  0.955   24 -0.151   23 -0.159
OILERS       29 53 203 270  0.002 41.722   28 -0.240   28 -0.246   28 -0.271   28 0.4654    6  1.056   23 -0.150   29 -0.393

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUES        54 34 262 211  0.022 44.759    3  0.213    4  0.203    5  0.183    4 0.5293   22  0.871   10  0.093    5  0.273
AVALANCHE    55 34 270 242  0.014 45.089    4  0.211    3  0.203    9  0.109    3 0.5299    8  1.051    3  0.225   14 -0.006
BLACKHAWKS   57 44 325 275  0.041 52.158    8  0.150    8  0.138    2  0.199    8 0.5203    2  1.139    1  0.422   15 -0.024
WILD         49 46 242 241  0.037 49.100   11  0.046   11  0.048   11  0.053   11 0.5085   27  0.745   26 -0.169    4  0.276
STARS        42 46 253 248  0.026 45.054   15 -0.003   15 -0.025   10  0.066   15 0.4982   10  1.034    8  0.162   17 -0.031
PREDATORS    38 44 216 242  0.015 41.869   16 -0.032   16 -0.054   21 -0.097   16 0.4925   12  1.015   17 -0.023   25 -0.170
JETS         37 45 227 237  0.011 41.680   18 -0.054   18 -0.077   16 -0.045   17 0.4898   13  1.012   16  0.025   21 -0.115

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRUINS       61 33 291 203 -0.040 45.277    2  0.233    2  0.225    1  0.294    2 0.5322   23  0.861    5  0.194    2  0.394
CANADIENS    56 43 266 250  0.011 50.129    9  0.117    9  0.118   12  0.047    9 0.5160   24  0.855   20 -0.060    7  0.155
LIGHTNING    46 40 250 231 -0.028 42.211   12  0.038   12  0.034   14  0.038   12 0.5056   16  0.988   12  0.080   13 -0.004
RED WINGS    40 47 228 244 -0.009 43.568   17 -0.053   17 -0.076   20 -0.064   18 0.4888   20  0.924   22 -0.095   18 -0.033
MAPLE LEAFS  38 44 231 256 -0.034 40.381   20 -0.065   20 -0.084   25 -0.138   21 0.4874    4  1.125   13  0.068   26 -0.344
SENATORS     37 45 236 265 -0.027 40.535   22 -0.084   22 -0.101   24 -0.106   23 0.4853    1  1.177    7  0.166   28 -0.378
PANTHERS     29 53 196 268 -0.022 40.988   29 -0.250   29 -0.260   29 -0.294   29 0.4620   11  1.019   27 -0.216   27 -0.371
SABRES       21 61 157 248 -0.021 41.166   30 -0.438   30 -0.425   30 -0.405   30 0.4388   30  0.678   30 -0.694   20 -0.115

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PENGUINS     58 37 284 240 -0.006 47.289    5  0.194    6  0.181    6  0.152    6 0.5250   17  0.985    6  0.190    8  0.113
RANGERS      58 48 280 248  0.007 53.408   10  0.081   10  0.085    8  0.118   10 0.5123   25  0.789   19 -0.059    3  0.295
BLUE JACKETS 45 43 249 237 -0.006 43.955   13  0.021   13  0.010   13  0.041   13 0.5019   15  0.989   11  0.084   12 -0.003
FLYERS       44 44 247 252 -0.006 44.088   14  0.008   14 -0.008   15 -0.018   14 0.4986    7  1.055    9  0.103   22 -0.138
CAPITALS     38 44 235 240 -0.023 40.586   19 -0.056   19 -0.079   18 -0.061   20 0.4883    9  1.044   15  0.046   24 -0.169
HURRICANES   36 46 207 230 -0.020 40.738   24 -0.106   24 -0.118   23 -0.106   24 0.4826   21  0.906   25 -0.157   19 -0.054
DEVILS       35 47 197 208 -0.021 40.629   26 -0.128   26 -0.136   19 -0.062   26 0.4797   29  0.698   29 -0.332    6  0.209
ISLANDERS    34 48 225 267 -0.017 40.934   27 -0.155   27 -0.154   27 -0.173   27 0.4768    3  1.138   14  0.050   30 -0.395

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION      332 293 0.531    1  0.091
PACIFIC DIVISION      314 306 0.506    2 -0.010
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 348 357 0.494    3 -0.016
ATLANTIC DIVISION     328 366 0.473    4 -0.104

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.113 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:48:18 2020
games through: Fri Jun 13 2014

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