Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      68 36 349 271  0.046 53.947    1  0.978    1  0.251    1  0.250    1 0.5441  1.085  0.356  0.143  0.000
SAN JOSE     59 38 305 256  0.046 50.435    2  0.872    2  0.177    3  0.176    2 0.5331  1.019  0.203  0.149  0.000
WASHINGTON   57 32 340 253 -0.062 42.319    3  0.816    3  0.156    2  0.218    5 0.5254  1.320  0.627 -0.190  0.000
PHOENIX      53 36 243 227  0.032 45.958    4  0.779    4  0.144    9  0.048    3 0.5278  0.820 -0.147  0.244  0.000
VANCOUVER    55 39 315 263  0.031 48.263    5  0.761    5  0.134    4  0.174    4 0.5264  1.183  0.403 -0.055  0.000
NASHVILLE    49 39 240 242  0.050 46.158    6  0.642    6  0.101   13  0.010    6 0.5205  0.917 -0.080  0.100  0.000
LOS ANGELES  48 40 258 244  0.039 45.664    7  0.587    7  0.078    8  0.054    7 0.5169  0.977  0.033  0.076  0.000
NEW JERSEY   49 37 229 202 -0.028 42.304    8  0.584    8  0.076    6  0.065    9 0.5118  0.738 -0.215  0.345  0.000
PITTSBURGH   54 41 299 275 -0.050 46.017    9  0.548    9  0.064   14  0.009   10 0.5102  1.140  0.183 -0.165  0.000
DETROIT      49 45 272 249  0.050 49.142   10  0.533   10  0.055    5  0.096    8 0.5138  0.939  0.031  0.161  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLORADO     45 43 255 252  0.025 45.213   11  0.495   12  0.024   11  0.040   11 0.5072  1.018  0.067  0.013  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 55 50 312 286 -0.010 52.421   12  0.492   11  0.025    7  0.064   12 0.5032  1.062  0.142 -0.014  0.000
BUFFALO      47 41 250 223 -0.042 42.808   13  0.490   13  0.019   10  0.046   13 0.5018  0.905 -0.057  0.149  0.000
OTTAWA       46 42 244 263 -0.040 43.134   14  0.470   14  0.006   23 -0.083   16 0.4995  1.040 -0.030 -0.135  0.000
ST. LOUIS    40 42 225 223  0.026 42.157   15  0.458   15 -0.007   12  0.028   14 0.5016  0.915 -0.064  0.120  0.000
CALGARY      40 42 204 210  0.012 41.770   16  0.450   16 -0.013   15 -0.005   15 0.5002  0.757 -0.266  0.256  0.000
ANAHEIM      39 43 238 251  0.028 42.340   17  0.440   17 -0.022   18 -0.031   17 0.4994  1.102  0.097 -0.158  0.000
BOSTON       46 49 243 237 -0.026 46.943   18  0.422   18 -0.041   17 -0.013   21 0.4911  0.720 -0.311  0.286  0.000
MONTREAL     48 53 263 280 -0.005 50.904   19  0.421   20 -0.041   20 -0.069   20 0.4913  0.836 -0.247  0.110  0.000
MINNESOTA    38 44 219 246  0.022 42.228   20  0.412   19 -0.041   22 -0.081   18 0.4950  0.987 -0.092 -0.071  0.000
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS       37 45 237 254  0.031 42.458   21  0.402   21 -0.051   19 -0.035   19 0.4939  1.097  0.085 -0.156  0.000
NY RANGERS   38 44 222 218 -0.035 40.221   22  0.366   22 -0.071   16 -0.008   22 0.4861  0.896 -0.122  0.105  0.000
ATLANTA      35 47 234 256 -0.044 40.103   23  0.219   24 -0.124   24 -0.093   24 0.4754  1.103  0.036 -0.222  0.000
CAROLINA     35 47 230 256 -0.041 40.211   24  0.218   23 -0.122   25 -0.127   25 0.4754  1.080 -0.026 -0.227  0.000
COLUMBUS     32 50 216 259  0.036 42.696   25  0.193   25 -0.131   21 -0.081   23 0.4793  1.028 -0.042 -0.119  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 222 264 -0.027 40.725   26  0.189   26 -0.131   28 -0.162   26 0.4742  1.063 -0.083 -0.242  0.000
TAMPA BAY    33 48 213 258 -0.040 39.809   27  0.144   27 -0.147   27 -0.158   27 0.4709  1.019 -0.131 -0.186  0.000
FLORIDA      32 50 208 244 -0.035 40.469   28  0.097   28 -0.167   26 -0.138   28 0.4677  0.907 -0.239 -0.038  0.000
TORONTO      30 52 214 267 -0.036 40.462   29  0.023   29 -0.202   29 -0.190   30 0.4618  1.056 -0.119 -0.261  0.000
EDMONTON     27 55 214 284  0.025 42.537   30  0.000   30 -0.219   30 -0.211   29 0.4633  1.138 -0.040 -0.383  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE     59 38 305 256  0.046 50.435    2  0.872    2  0.177    3  0.176    2 0.5331  1.019  0.203  0.149  0.000
PHOENIX      53 36 243 227  0.032 45.958    4  0.779    4  0.144    9  0.048    3 0.5278  0.820 -0.147  0.244  0.000
LOS ANGELES  48 40 258 244  0.039 45.664    7  0.587    7  0.078    8  0.054    7 0.5169  0.977  0.033  0.076  0.000
ANAHEIM      39 43 238 251  0.028 42.340   17  0.440   17 -0.022   18 -0.031   17 0.4994  1.102  0.097 -0.158  0.000
DALLAS       37 45 237 254  0.031 42.458   21  0.402   21 -0.051   19 -0.035   19 0.4939  1.097  0.085 -0.156  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER    55 39 315 263  0.031 48.263    5  0.761    5  0.134    4  0.174    4 0.5264  1.183  0.403 -0.055  0.000
COLORADO     45 43 255 252  0.025 45.213   11  0.495   12  0.024   11  0.040   11 0.5072  1.018  0.067  0.013  0.000
CALGARY      40 42 204 210  0.012 41.770   16  0.450   16 -0.013   15 -0.005   15 0.5002  0.757 -0.266  0.256  0.000
MINNESOTA    38 44 219 246  0.022 42.228   20  0.412   19 -0.041   22 -0.081   18 0.4950  0.987 -0.092 -0.071  0.000
EDMONTON     27 55 214 284  0.025 42.537   30  0.000   30 -0.219   30 -0.211   29 0.4633  1.138 -0.040 -0.383  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CHICAGO      68 36 349 271  0.046 53.947    1  0.978    1  0.251    1  0.250    1 0.5441  1.085  0.356  0.143  0.000
NASHVILLE    49 39 240 242  0.050 46.158    6  0.642    6  0.101   13  0.010    6 0.5205  0.917 -0.080  0.100  0.000
DETROIT      49 45 272 249  0.050 49.142   10  0.533   10  0.055    5  0.096    8 0.5138  0.939  0.031  0.161  0.000
ST. LOUIS    40 42 225 223  0.026 42.157   15  0.458   15 -0.007   12  0.028   14 0.5016  0.915 -0.064  0.120  0.000
COLUMBUS     32 50 216 259  0.036 42.696   25  0.193   25 -0.131   21 -0.081   23 0.4793  1.028 -0.042 -0.119  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON   57 32 340 253 -0.062 42.319    3  0.816    3  0.156    2  0.218    5 0.5254  1.320  0.627 -0.190  0.000
ATLANTA      35 47 234 256 -0.044 40.103   23  0.219   24 -0.124   24 -0.093   24 0.4754  1.103  0.036 -0.222  0.000
CAROLINA     35 47 230 256 -0.041 40.211   24  0.218   23 -0.122   25 -0.127   25 0.4754  1.080 -0.026 -0.227  0.000
TAMPA BAY    33 48 213 258 -0.040 39.809   27  0.144   27 -0.147   27 -0.158   27 0.4709  1.019 -0.131 -0.186  0.000
FLORIDA      32 50 208 244 -0.035 40.469   28  0.097   28 -0.167   26 -0.138   28 0.4677  0.907 -0.239 -0.038  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUFFALO      47 41 250 223 -0.042 42.808   13  0.490   13  0.019   10  0.046   13 0.5018  0.905 -0.057  0.149  0.000
OTTAWA       46 42 244 263 -0.040 43.134   14  0.470   14  0.006   23 -0.083   16 0.4995  1.040 -0.030 -0.135  0.000
BOSTON       46 49 243 237 -0.026 46.943   18  0.422   18 -0.041   17 -0.013   21 0.4911  0.720 -0.311  0.286  0.000
MONTREAL     48 53 263 280 -0.005 50.904   19  0.421   20 -0.041   20 -0.069   20 0.4913  0.836 -0.247  0.110  0.000
TORONTO      30 52 214 267 -0.036 40.462   29  0.023   29 -0.202   29 -0.190   30 0.4618  1.056 -0.119 -0.261  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY   49 37 229 202 -0.028 42.304    8  0.584    8  0.076    6  0.065    9 0.5118  0.738 -0.215  0.345  0.000
PITTSBURGH   54 41 299 275 -0.050 46.017    9  0.548    9  0.064   14  0.009   10 0.5102  1.140  0.183 -0.165  0.000
PHILADELPHIA 55 50 312 286 -0.010 52.421   12  0.492   11  0.025    7  0.064   12 0.5032  1.062  0.142 -0.014  0.000
NY RANGERS   38 44 222 218 -0.035 40.221   22  0.366   22 -0.071   16 -0.008   22 0.4861  0.896 -0.122  0.105  0.000
NY ISLANDERS 34 48 222 264 -0.027 40.725   26  0.189   26 -0.131   28 -0.162   26 0.4742  1.063 -0.083 -0.242  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   238 212 0.529    1  0.092
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 202 0.539    2  0.068
ATLANTIC DIVISION  230 220 0.511    3 -0.007
NORTHWEST DIVISION 205 223 0.479    4 -0.024
NORTHEAST DIVISION 217 237 0.478    5 -0.091
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 224 0.462    6 -0.093

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.138 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jul 10 10:29:38 2010
games through: Wed Jun  9 2010

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