Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        66 39 371 292  0.022 53.352    1  1.033    1  0.209    2  0.252    1 0.5334  1.205  0.484  0.019  0.000
BOSTON         60 33 308 218 -0.025 45.499    2  1.013    2  0.200    1  0.261    2 0.5321  0.947  0.181  0.341  0.000
SAN JOSE       55 33 267 222 -0.009 43.761    3  0.961    3  0.175    4  0.149    3 0.5294  0.925  0.044  0.255  0.000
NEW JERSEY     54 35 259 226 -0.022 43.940    4  0.869    4  0.139    8  0.064    4 0.5235  0.879 -0.092  0.220  0.000
PITTSBURGH     61 45 343 303  0.024 54.213    5  0.851    5  0.130    5  0.112    5 0.5210  1.092  0.203  0.021  0.000
WASHINGTON     57 39 313 283 -0.026 47.245    6  0.821    6  0.123    7  0.077    6 0.5204  1.175  0.271 -0.117  0.000
CHICAGO        55 44 318 270  0.036 50.980    7  0.757    7  0.101    3  0.168    7 0.5177  1.050  0.208  0.128  0.000
VANCOUVER      51 41 276 248  0.002 46.236    8  0.694    8  0.077    6  0.108    8 0.5130  0.998  0.087  0.130  0.000
CALGARY        48 40 270 269  0.007 44.558    9  0.662    9  0.066   14  0.009    9 0.5111  1.175  0.203 -0.185  0.000
CAROLINA       53 47 281 278  0.019 51.102   10  0.636   10  0.055   13  0.017   10 0.5090  0.942 -0.069  0.102  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANAHEIM        49 46 280 270  0.033 49.008   11  0.614   11  0.037   10  0.051   11 0.5079  1.033  0.071  0.031  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   46 42 280 256 -0.014 43.748   12  0.598   12  0.022    9  0.053   12 0.5046  1.116  0.173 -0.067  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   46 43 221 237 -0.004 44.822   13  0.586   13  0.018   21 -0.062   13 0.5038  0.736 -0.369  0.245  0.000
NASHVILLE      40 42 213 233  0.013 41.852   14  0.553   14 -0.014   19 -0.059   14 0.4982  0.886 -0.207  0.089  0.000
BUFFALO        41 41 250 234 -0.016 40.742   15  0.552   15 -0.014   12  0.028   15 0.4977  1.035  0.050  0.007  0.000
FLORIDA        41 41 234 231 -0.029 40.375   16  0.541   16 -0.021   15  0.000   18 0.4965  0.959 -0.066  0.067  0.000
ST. LOUIS      41 45 238 244  0.021 44.079   17  0.537   18 -0.025   16 -0.002   17 0.4966  0.956 -0.072  0.068  0.000
COLUMBUS       41 45 233 248  0.025 44.269   18  0.536   17 -0.023   17 -0.025   16 0.4970  0.946 -0.107  0.056  0.000
MINNESOTA      40 42 219 200 -0.011 40.864   19  0.534   19 -0.027   11  0.043   19 0.4962  0.767 -0.232  0.318  0.000
MONTREAL       41 45 255 264  0.003 43.530   20  0.521   20 -0.038   18 -0.039   20 0.4937  1.082  0.039 -0.116  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
EDMONTON       38 44 234 248 -0.007 41.212   21  0.483   21 -0.060   20 -0.060   21 0.4907  1.076  0.011 -0.131  0.000
DALLAS         36 46 230 257 -0.001 41.491   22  0.414   22 -0.091   24 -0.112   22 0.4859  1.086 -0.029 -0.195  0.000
PHOENIX        36 46 208 252 -0.003 41.478   23  0.409   23 -0.092   26 -0.139   23 0.4852  0.996 -0.163 -0.114  0.000
OTTAWA         36 46 217 237 -0.012 41.060   24  0.395   24 -0.098   22 -0.074   24 0.4834  0.904 -0.202  0.054  0.000
ATLANTA        35 47 257 280 -0.021 40.809   25  0.329   25 -0.122   23 -0.106   26 0.4797  1.280  0.225 -0.437  0.000
LOS ANGELES    34 48 207 234  0.002 41.609   26  0.317   26 -0.125   25 -0.113   25 0.4805  0.873 -0.276  0.050  0.000
TORONTO        34 48 250 293 -0.008 41.330   27  0.306   27 -0.129   27 -0.154   27 0.4777  1.284  0.181 -0.489  0.000
COLORADO       32 50 199 257  0.003 41.801   28  0.226   28 -0.157   29 -0.234   28 0.4734  0.941 -0.321 -0.146  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 26 56 201 279 -0.010 41.437   29  0.053   29 -0.271   30 -0.247   29 0.4551  1.044 -0.214 -0.279  0.000
TAMPA BAY      24 58 210 279 -0.014 41.235   30  0.000   30 -0.309   28 -0.225   30 0.4484  1.047 -0.189 -0.262  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE       55 33 267 222 -0.009 43.761    3  0.961    3  0.175    4  0.149    3 0.5294  0.925  0.044  0.255  0.000
ANAHEIM        49 46 280 270  0.033 49.008   11  0.614   11  0.037   10  0.051   11 0.5079  1.033  0.071  0.031  0.000
DALLAS         36 46 230 257 -0.001 41.491   22  0.414   22 -0.091   24 -0.112   22 0.4859  1.086 -0.029 -0.195  0.000
PHOENIX        36 46 208 252 -0.003 41.478   23  0.409   23 -0.092   26 -0.139   23 0.4852  0.996 -0.163 -0.114  0.000
LOS ANGELES    34 48 207 234  0.002 41.609   26  0.317   26 -0.125   25 -0.113   25 0.4805  0.873 -0.276  0.050  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER      51 41 276 248  0.002 46.236    8  0.694    8  0.077    6  0.108    8 0.5130  0.998  0.087  0.130  0.000
CALGARY        48 40 270 269  0.007 44.558    9  0.662    9  0.066   14  0.009    9 0.5111  1.175  0.203 -0.185  0.000
MINNESOTA      40 42 219 200 -0.011 40.864   19  0.534   19 -0.027   11  0.043   19 0.4962  0.767 -0.232  0.318  0.000
EDMONTON       38 44 234 248 -0.007 41.212   21  0.483   21 -0.060   20 -0.060   21 0.4907  1.076  0.011 -0.131  0.000
COLORADO       32 50 199 257  0.003 41.801   28  0.226   28 -0.157   29 -0.234   28 0.4734  0.941 -0.321 -0.146  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        66 39 371 292  0.022 53.352    1  1.033    1  0.209    2  0.252    1 0.5334  1.205  0.484  0.019  0.000
CHICAGO        55 44 318 270  0.036 50.980    7  0.757    7  0.101    3  0.168    7 0.5177  1.050  0.208  0.128  0.000
NASHVILLE      40 42 213 233  0.013 41.852   14  0.553   14 -0.014   19 -0.059   14 0.4982  0.886 -0.207  0.089  0.000
ST. LOUIS      41 45 238 244  0.021 44.079   17  0.537   18 -0.025   16 -0.002   17 0.4966  0.956 -0.072  0.068  0.000
COLUMBUS       41 45 233 248  0.025 44.269   18  0.536   17 -0.023   17 -0.025   16 0.4970  0.946 -0.107  0.056  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
WASHINGTON     57 39 313 283 -0.026 47.245    6  0.821    6  0.123    7  0.077    6 0.5204  1.175  0.271 -0.117  0.000
CAROLINA       53 47 281 278  0.019 51.102   10  0.636   10  0.055   13  0.017   10 0.5090  0.942 -0.069  0.102  0.000
FLORIDA        41 41 234 231 -0.029 40.375   16  0.541   16 -0.021   15  0.000   18 0.4965  0.959 -0.066  0.067  0.000
ATLANTA        35 47 257 280 -0.021 40.809   25  0.329   25 -0.122   23 -0.106   26 0.4797  1.280  0.225 -0.437  0.000
TAMPA BAY      24 58 210 279 -0.014 41.235   30  0.000   30 -0.309   28 -0.225   30 0.4484  1.047 -0.189 -0.262  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BOSTON         60 33 308 218 -0.025 45.499    2  1.013    2  0.200    1  0.261    2 0.5321  0.947  0.181  0.341  0.000
BUFFALO        41 41 250 234 -0.016 40.742   15  0.552   15 -0.014   12  0.028   15 0.4977  1.035  0.050  0.007  0.000
MONTREAL       41 45 255 264  0.003 43.530   20  0.521   20 -0.038   18 -0.039   20 0.4937  1.082  0.039 -0.116  0.000
OTTAWA         36 46 217 237 -0.012 41.060   24  0.395   24 -0.098   22 -0.074   24 0.4834  0.904 -0.202  0.054  0.000
TORONTO        34 48 250 293 -0.008 41.330   27  0.306   27 -0.129   27 -0.154   27 0.4777  1.284  0.181 -0.489  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     54 35 259 226 -0.022 43.940    4  0.869    4  0.139    8  0.064    4 0.5235  0.879 -0.092  0.220  0.000
PITTSBURGH     61 45 343 303  0.024 54.213    5  0.851    5  0.130    5  0.112    5 0.5210  1.092  0.203  0.021  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   46 42 280 256 -0.014 43.748   12  0.598   12  0.022    9  0.053   12 0.5046  1.116  0.173 -0.067  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   46 43 221 237 -0.004 44.822   13  0.586   13  0.018   21 -0.062   13 0.5038  0.736 -0.369  0.245  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 26 56 201 279 -0.010 41.437   29  0.053   29 -0.271   30 -0.247   29 0.4551  1.044 -0.214 -0.279  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   243 215 0.531    1  0.096
NORTHEAST DIVISION 212 213 0.499    2  0.008
ATLANTIC DIVISION  233 221 0.513    3 -0.021
NORTHWEST DIVISION 209 217 0.491    4 -0.035
PACIFIC DIVISION   210 219 0.490    5 -0.046
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 210 232 0.475    6 -0.067

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.150 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.015 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Aug  2 12:17:22 2009
games through: Fri Jun 12 2009

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