Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        70 34 329 225  0.058 54.484    1  0.284    1  0.274    1  0.343    1 0.5455   20  0.897    1  0.259    1  0.428
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.064 50.242    2  0.150    2  0.137    3  0.140    2 0.5246   28  0.762   20 -0.089    2  0.369
DALLAS         55 45 287 248  0.092 53.898    3  0.122    3  0.116    2  0.169    4 0.5212   18  0.965    8  0.161    7  0.176
PITTSBURGH     61 41 308 259 -0.035 49.866    4  0.117    4  0.113    4  0.112    3 0.5215   16  0.983   10  0.125   11  0.099
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.080 46.142    5  0.116    5  0.112    7  0.053    5 0.5203   30  0.712   26 -0.227    3  0.332
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.062 48.706    6  0.040    6  0.056    9  0.034    6 0.5114   15  0.991   14  0.056   13  0.012
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.042 45.890    7  0.034    7  0.046    8  0.034    7 0.5101   21  0.893   19 -0.055   10  0.123
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.057 46.988    8  0.024    8  0.032   12  0.019    8 0.5073   13  1.020   13  0.075   17 -0.037
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.089 47.463    9  0.022   10  0.026    5  0.060   12 0.5032   14  1.006   12  0.100   12  0.021
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.073 44.674   10  0.022    9  0.028    6  0.055    9 0.5061   10  1.060    9  0.159   18 -0.049
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.050 43.155   11  0.019   11  0.020   20 -0.052   11 0.5044    7  1.111   11  0.114   24 -0.217
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.057 42.091   12  0.017   12  0.018   24 -0.071   10 0.5052   29  0.735   30 -0.328    6  0.186
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.061 43.385   13  0.014   13  0.011   10  0.033   15 0.5003    9  1.095    6  0.178   20 -0.113
PHILADELPHIA   51 48 300 287 -0.048 48.106   14  0.005   14 -0.010   14  0.014   13 0.5013    6  1.119    4  0.190   22 -0.161
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.043 42.792   15  0.002   15 -0.015   13  0.019   16 0.4989   24  0.852   22 -0.115    8  0.152
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.070 43.776   16 -0.000   16 -0.016   16 -0.018   17 0.4972   17  0.969   18 -0.021   16 -0.015
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.059 44.268   17 -0.002   17 -0.022   11  0.031   14 0.5003   26  0.779   24 -0.180    4  0.242
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.102 38.191   18 -0.007   18 -0.026   23 -0.064   18 0.4968    3  1.174    5  0.180   26 -0.308
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.094 41.704   19 -0.009   20 -0.032   21 -0.055   19 0.4957   12  1.025   16  0.006   21 -0.116
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.053 41.689   20 -0.010   19 -0.032   18 -0.045   20 0.4948    2  1.193    3  0.224   27 -0.313
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.049 43.305   21 -0.014   21 -0.038   22 -0.061   21 0.4934   25  0.797   28 -0.253    9  0.132
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.067 39.244   22 -0.038   22 -0.069   15 -0.015   22 0.4881    4  1.129    7  0.172   23 -0.203
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.067 43.692   23 -0.049   23 -0.079   17 -0.027   23 0.4837   27  0.772   27 -0.245    5  0.192
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.069 43.784   24 -0.069   24 -0.093   19 -0.045   25 0.4809   19  0.927   21 -0.096   15  0.006
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.097 38.394   25 -0.079   25 -0.100   26 -0.104   24 0.4829   23  0.870   25 -0.218   14  0.011
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.076 42.984   26 -0.091   26 -0.107   25 -0.074   27 0.4796    1  1.223    2  0.232   30 -0.380
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.057 39.741   27 -0.095   27 -0.110   27 -0.112   26 0.4798    8  1.105   15  0.046   25 -0.269
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.047 40.146   28 -0.120   28 -0.122   29 -0.197   28 0.4792   22  0.877   29 -0.304   19 -0.090
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.083 39.039   29 -0.175   29 -0.154   30 -0.232   29 0.4718   11  1.057   23 -0.132   28 -0.333
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.088 38.797   30 -0.229   30 -0.204   28 -0.183   30 0.4635    5  1.123   17 -0.003   29 -0.364
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
SAN JOSE       55 40 252 225  0.064 50.242    2  0.150    2  0.137    3  0.140    2 0.5246   28  0.762   20 -0.089    2  0.369
DALLAS         55 45 287 248  0.092 53.898    3  0.122    3  0.116    2  0.169    4 0.5212   18  0.965    8  0.161    7  0.176
ANAHEIM        48 38 213 206  0.080 46.142    5  0.116    5  0.112    7  0.053    5 0.5203   30  0.712   26 -0.227    3  0.332
PHOENIX        38 44 214 231  0.070 43.776   16 -0.000   16 -0.016   16 -0.018   17 0.4972   17  0.969   18 -0.021   16 -0.015
LOS ANGELES    31 49 226 261  0.076 42.984   26 -0.091   26 -0.107   25 -0.074   27 0.4796    1  1.223    2  0.232   30 -0.380

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
COLORADO       48 44 257 252  0.062 48.706    6  0.040    6  0.056    9  0.034    6 0.5114   15  0.991   14  0.056   13  0.012
MINNESOTA      46 42 235 235  0.042 45.890    7  0.034    7  0.046    8  0.034    7 0.5101   21  0.893   19 -0.055   10  0.123
CALGARY        45 44 246 246  0.057 46.988    8  0.024    8  0.032   12  0.019    8 0.5073   13  1.020   13  0.075   17 -0.037
EDMONTON       41 41 235 251  0.050 43.155   11  0.019   11  0.020   20 -0.052   11 0.5044    7  1.111   11  0.114   24 -0.217
VANCOUVER      39 43 213 215  0.043 42.792   15  0.002   15 -0.015   13  0.019   16 0.4989   24  0.852   22 -0.115    8  0.152

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DETROIT        70 34 329 225  0.058 54.484    1  0.284    1  0.274    1  0.343    1 0.5455   20  0.897    1  0.259    1  0.428
NASHVILLE      43 45 242 246  0.089 47.463    9  0.022   10  0.026    5  0.060   12 0.5032   14  1.006   12  0.100   12  0.021
CHICAGO        40 42 239 235  0.061 43.385   13  0.014   13  0.011   10  0.033   15 0.5003    9  1.095    6  0.178   20 -0.113
COLUMBUS       34 48 193 218  0.067 43.692   23 -0.049   23 -0.079   17 -0.027   23 0.4837   27  0.772   27 -0.245    5  0.192
ST. LOUIS      33 49 205 237  0.069 43.784   24 -0.069   24 -0.093   19 -0.045   25 0.4809   19  0.927   21 -0.096   15  0.006

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CAROLINA       43 39 252 249 -0.102 38.191   18 -0.007   18 -0.026   23 -0.064   18 0.4968    3  1.174    5  0.180   26 -0.308
WASHINGTON     46 43 262 254 -0.094 41.704   19 -0.009   20 -0.032   21 -0.055   19 0.4957   12  1.025   16  0.006   21 -0.116
FLORIDA        38 44 216 226 -0.097 38.394   25 -0.079   25 -0.100   26 -0.104   24 0.4829   23  0.870   25 -0.218   14  0.011
ATLANTA        34 48 216 272 -0.083 39.039   29 -0.175   29 -0.154   30 -0.232   29 0.4718   11  1.057   23 -0.132   28 -0.333
TAMPA BAY      31 51 223 267 -0.088 38.797   30 -0.229   30 -0.204   28 -0.183   30 0.4635    5  1.123   17 -0.003   29 -0.364

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MONTREAL       52 42 295 257 -0.073 44.674   10  0.022    9  0.028    6  0.055    9 0.5061   10  1.060    9  0.159   18 -0.049
OTTAWA         43 43 266 263 -0.053 41.689   20 -0.010   19 -0.032   18 -0.045   20 0.4948    2  1.193    3  0.224   27 -0.313
BOSTON         44 45 227 241 -0.049 43.305   21 -0.014   21 -0.038   22 -0.061   21 0.4934   25  0.797   28 -0.253    9  0.132
BUFFALO        39 43 255 242 -0.067 39.244   22 -0.038   22 -0.069   15 -0.015   22 0.4881    4  1.129    7  0.172   23 -0.203
TORONTO        36 46 231 260 -0.057 39.741   27 -0.095   27 -0.110   27 -0.112   26 0.4798    8  1.105   15  0.046   25 -0.269

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PITTSBURGH     61 41 308 259 -0.035 49.866    4  0.117    4  0.113    4  0.112    3 0.5215   16  0.983   10  0.125   11  0.099
NEW JERSEY     47 40 218 216 -0.057 42.091   12  0.017   12  0.018   24 -0.071   10 0.5052   29  0.735   30 -0.328    6  0.186
PHILADELPHIA   51 48 300 287 -0.048 48.106   14  0.005   14 -0.010   14  0.014   13 0.5013    6  1.119    4  0.190   22 -0.161
N.Y. RANGERS   47 45 244 226 -0.059 44.268   17 -0.002   17 -0.022   11  0.031   14 0.5003   26  0.779   24 -0.180    4  0.242
N.Y. ISLANDERS 35 47 194 243 -0.047 40.146   28 -0.120   28 -0.122   29 -0.197   28 0.4792   22  0.877   29 -0.304   19 -0.090

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
CENTRAL DIVISION   220 218 0.502    1  0.114
PACIFIC DIVISION   227 216 0.512    2  0.087
NORTHWEST DIVISION 219 214 0.506    3  0.023
ATLANTIC DIVISION  241 221 0.522    4 -0.033
NORTHEAST DIVISION 214 219 0.494    5 -0.052
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 225 0.460    6 -0.202

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.116 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Jan  4 12:46:33 2020
games through: Wed Jun  4 2008

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