Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.091 55.646    1  1.428    1  0.297    3  0.284    1 0.5354  0.948  0.205  0.363  0.000
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.088 50.023    2  1.402    2  0.275    2  0.306    2 0.5324  0.957  0.236  0.375  0.000
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.093 53.917    3  1.382    3  0.256    1  0.344    3 0.5300  0.861  0.168  0.520  0.000
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.063 45.994    4  1.323    4  0.223    4  0.271    6 0.5269  1.093  0.363  0.179  0.000
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.064 47.324    5  1.316    5  0.221    9  0.152    5 0.5271  0.734 -0.156  0.461  0.000
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.091 51.091    6  1.291    6  0.207   11  0.113    7 0.5251  0.705 -0.225  0.451  0.000
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.063 47.173    7  1.290    7  0.205    8  0.162    4 0.5276  1.191  0.377 -0.052  0.000
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.080 46.719    8  1.225    8  0.173    6  0.200    9 0.5212  0.748 -0.095  0.495  0.000
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.043 49.752    9  1.186    9  0.151    5  0.227    8 0.5235  1.077  0.299  0.155  0.000
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.066 43.685   10  1.077   10  0.108   10  0.138   10 0.5133  1.291  0.483 -0.207  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.081 44.328   11  1.029   11  0.088   13  0.025   11 0.5129  0.695 -0.324  0.373  0.000
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.087 47.531   12  1.010   12  0.078    7  0.184   12 0.5091  1.078  0.257  0.112  0.000
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.070 41.868   13  0.945   13  0.042   14  0.003   13 0.5062  1.152  0.168 -0.161  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.079 43.849   14  0.861   14 -0.022   12  0.059   14 0.4996  0.866 -0.111  0.230  0.000
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.072 39.618   15  0.831   15 -0.032   18 -0.117   15 0.4989  1.094 -0.024 -0.209  0.000
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.097 41.660   16  0.830   16 -0.033   20 -0.144   16 0.4980  1.143  0.010 -0.298  0.000
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.100 40.598   17  0.760   17 -0.077   19 -0.122   18 0.4918  1.018 -0.121 -0.123  0.000
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.073 39.567   18  0.755   18 -0.079   17 -0.104   17 0.4933  1.186  0.104 -0.312  0.000
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.106 38.579   19  0.699   19 -0.103   24 -0.157   19 0.4887  1.075 -0.087 -0.226  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.071 41.964   20  0.695   20 -0.109   15 -0.059   20 0.4880  1.021 -0.053 -0.064  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.067 44.194   21  0.689   21 -0.111   16 -0.099   21 0.4836  1.004 -0.114 -0.084  0.000
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.072 44.489   22  0.637   22 -0.128   25 -0.175   22 0.4809  0.935 -0.268 -0.081  0.000
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.084 44.814   23  0.610   23 -0.142   23 -0.151   23 0.4800  0.922 -0.259 -0.042  0.000
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.076 44.710   24  0.540   24 -0.174   27 -0.208   25 0.4758  1.173 -0.018 -0.399  0.000
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.072 44.494   25  0.538   25 -0.175   26 -0.176   26 0.4753  0.964 -0.237 -0.115  0.000
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.058 40.443   26  0.535   26 -0.175   29 -0.333   24 0.4794  1.091 -0.244 -0.423  0.000
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.106 38.530   27  0.481   27 -0.216   21 -0.144   27 0.4748  1.079 -0.069 -0.219  0.000
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.073 44.484   28  0.408   28 -0.265   22 -0.150   28 0.4646  1.193  0.067 -0.367  0.000
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.096 39.066   29  0.227   29 -0.364   28 -0.284   29 0.4553  1.162 -0.107 -0.461  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.065 40.265   30  0.000   30 -0.479   30 -0.400   30 0.4398  1.174 -0.207 -0.593  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANAHEIM        64 39 316 253  0.091 55.646    1  1.428    1  0.297    3  0.284    1 0.5354  0.948  0.205  0.363  0.000
SAN JOSE       57 36 283 226  0.088 50.023    2  1.402    2  0.275    2  0.306    2 0.5324  0.957  0.236  0.375  0.000
DALLAS         53 36 238 210  0.064 47.324    5  1.316    5  0.221    9  0.152    5 0.5271  0.734 -0.156  0.461  0.000
PHOENIX        31 51 216 284  0.076 44.710   24  0.540   24 -0.174   27 -0.208   25 0.4758  1.173 -0.018 -0.399  0.000
LOS ANGELES    27 55 227 283  0.073 44.484   28  0.408   28 -0.265   22 -0.150   28 0.4646  1.193  0.067 -0.367  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER      54 40 243 227  0.091 51.091    6  1.291    6  0.207   11  0.113    7 0.5251  0.705 -0.225  0.451  0.000
MINNESOTA      49 38 244 203  0.080 46.719    8  1.225    8  0.173    6  0.200    9 0.5212  0.748 -0.095  0.495  0.000
COLORADO       44 38 272 251  0.066 43.685   10  1.077   10  0.108   10  0.138   10 0.5133  1.291  0.483 -0.207  0.000
CALGARY        45 43 268 244  0.087 47.531   12  1.010   12  0.078    7  0.184   12 0.5091  1.078  0.257  0.112  0.000
EDMONTON       32 50 195 248  0.084 44.814   23  0.610   23 -0.142   23 -0.151   23 0.4800  0.922 -0.259 -0.042  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        60 40 302 234  0.093 53.917    3  1.382    3  0.256    1  0.344    3 0.5300  0.861  0.168  0.520  0.000
NASHVILLE      52 35 286 228  0.063 45.994    4  1.323    4  0.223    4  0.271    6 0.5269  1.093  0.363  0.179  0.000
ST. LOUIS      34 48 214 254  0.067 44.194   21  0.689   21 -0.111   16 -0.099   21 0.4836  1.004 -0.114 -0.084  0.000
COLUMBUS       33 49 201 249  0.072 44.489   22  0.637   22 -0.128   25 -0.175   22 0.4809  0.935 -0.268 -0.081  0.000
CHICAGO        31 51 201 258  0.072 44.494   25  0.538   25 -0.175   26 -0.176   26 0.4753  0.964 -0.237 -0.115  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      46 42 267 280 -0.097 41.660   16  0.830   16 -0.033   20 -0.144   16 0.4980  1.143  0.010 -0.298  0.000
ATLANTA        43 43 252 262 -0.100 40.598   17  0.760   17 -0.077   19 -0.122   18 0.4918  1.018 -0.121 -0.123  0.000
CAROLINA       40 42 241 253 -0.106 38.579   19  0.699   19 -0.103   24 -0.157   19 0.4887  1.075 -0.087 -0.226  0.000
FLORIDA        35 47 247 257 -0.106 38.530   27  0.481   27 -0.216   21 -0.144   27 0.4748  1.079 -0.069 -0.219  0.000
WASHINGTON     28 54 235 286 -0.096 39.066   29  0.227   29 -0.364   28 -0.284   29 0.4553  1.162 -0.107 -0.461  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUFFALO        62 36 352 281 -0.063 47.173    7  1.290    7  0.205    8  0.162    4 0.5276  1.191  0.377 -0.052  0.000
OTTAWA         61 41 347 269 -0.043 49.752    9  1.186    9  0.151    5  0.227    8 0.5235  1.077  0.299  0.155  0.000
MONTREAL       42 40 245 256 -0.072 39.618   15  0.831   15 -0.032   18 -0.117   15 0.4989  1.094 -0.024 -0.209  0.000
TORONTO        40 42 258 269 -0.073 39.567   18  0.755   18 -0.079   17 -0.104   17 0.4933  1.186  0.104 -0.312  0.000
BOSTON         35 47 219 289 -0.058 40.443   26  0.535   26 -0.175   29 -0.333   24 0.4794  1.091 -0.244 -0.423  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     54 39 246 230 -0.081 44.328   11  1.029   11  0.088   13  0.025   11 0.5129  0.695 -0.324  0.373  0.000
PITTSBURGH     48 39 287 264 -0.070 41.868   13  0.945   13  0.042   14  0.003   13 0.5062  1.152  0.168 -0.161  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   48 44 272 239 -0.079 43.849   14  0.861   14 -0.022   12  0.059   14 0.4996  0.866 -0.111  0.230  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 41 46 259 257 -0.071 41.964   20  0.695   20 -0.109   15 -0.059   20 0.4880  1.021 -0.053 -0.064  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   22 60 214 303 -0.065 40.265   30  0.000   30 -0.479   30 -0.400   30 0.4398  1.174 -0.207 -0.593  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 224 209 0.517    1  0.123
PACIFIC DIVISION   232 217 0.517    2  0.094
CENTRAL DIVISION   210 223 0.485    3  0.039
NORTHEAST DIVISION 240 206 0.538    4 -0.041
ATLANTIC DIVISION  213 228 0.483    5 -0.088
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 192 228 0.457    6 -0.208

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.142 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:18:41 2007
games through: Wed Jun  6 2007

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