Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        60 28 322 228 -0.032 42.313    1  1.365    1  0.293    2  0.320    1 0.5400  1.135  0.395  0.245  0.000
BUFFALO        63 37 341 288  0.023 50.684    2  1.304    2  0.252    4  0.157    2 0.5334  1.097  0.186  0.129  0.000
CAROLINA       68 39 367 320 -0.031 52.021    3  1.272    4  0.227    7  0.125    4 0.5311  1.166  0.238  0.011  0.000
DALLAS         54 33 280 236  0.031 44.318    4  1.269    3  0.228    3  0.186    3 0.5317  0.992  0.089  0.283  0.000
OTTAWA         57 35 350 240 -0.020 44.797    5  1.223    5  0.196    1  0.355    5 0.5282  1.152  0.452  0.258  0.000
NASHVILLE      50 37 269 244 -0.019 42.730    6  1.043    6  0.117   12  0.068    6 0.5151  1.013 -0.004  0.140  0.000
CALGARY        49 40 234 217  0.044 45.920    7  1.040    7  0.115    6  0.133    7 0.5146  0.712 -0.265  0.531  0.000
EDMONTON       56 50 327 312  0.080 56.307    8  1.005    8  0.106   10  0.094    8 0.5141  1.048  0.064  0.125  0.000
SAN JOSE       50 43 295 272  0.042 47.946    9  0.981    9  0.093    9  0.104    9 0.5140  1.075  0.105  0.102  0.000
ANAHEIM        52 46 300 265  0.048 50.682   10  0.972   10  0.086    5  0.153   10 0.5124  0.975  0.037  0.269  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     51 40 269 250 -0.048 43.763   11  0.940   11  0.069   14  0.024   11 0.5097  0.902 -0.174  0.222  0.000
COLORADO       47 44 305 288  0.054 47.369   12  0.931   12  0.064    8  0.108   12 0.5083  1.260  0.344 -0.128  0.000
LOS ANGELES    42 40 249 270  0.042 42.531   13  0.896   13  0.047   18 -0.047   13 0.5068  1.177  0.081 -0.176  0.000
VANCOUVER      42 40 256 255  0.042 42.420   14  0.895   14  0.045   16  0.011   14 0.5053  1.165  0.123 -0.102  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   47 41 280 286 -0.044 42.598   15  0.864   15  0.027   20 -0.056   15 0.5039  1.157  0.046 -0.159  0.000
MONTREAL       44 44 260 262  0.009 44.374   16  0.836   16  0.003   15  0.013   16 0.5013  0.981 -0.096  0.122  0.000
TORONTO        41 41 257 270  0.003 41.239   17  0.823   17 -0.002   17 -0.045   17 0.4993  1.165  0.068 -0.158  0.000
TAMPA BAY      44 43 265 283 -0.025 42.849   18  0.812   18 -0.009   22 -0.070   18 0.4989  1.105 -0.031 -0.108  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   44 42 261 232 -0.064 40.764   19  0.793   19 -0.028   13  0.045   19 0.4969  0.908 -0.146  0.237  0.000
PHOENIX        38 44 246 271  0.043 42.601   20  0.780   20 -0.035   21 -0.064   20 0.4957  1.173  0.059 -0.187  0.000
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATLANTA        41 41 281 275 -0.054 39.342   21  0.776   21 -0.038   19 -0.048   21 0.4957  1.283  0.219 -0.314  0.000
MINNESOTA      38 44 231 215  0.037 42.151   22  0.772   22 -0.041   11  0.076   22 0.4942  0.869 -0.159  0.311  0.000
FLORIDA        37 45 240 257 -0.049 39.649   23  0.609   23 -0.120   23 -0.122   23 0.4846  0.998 -0.212 -0.033  0.000
COLUMBUS       35 47 223 279 -0.009 41.276   24  0.575   24 -0.132   26 -0.242   24 0.4806  1.088 -0.224 -0.260  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 46 230 278 -0.047 39.860   25  0.558   25 -0.139   25 -0.237   25 0.4797  1.082 -0.226 -0.248  0.000
BOSTON         29 53 230 266  0.009 41.562   26  0.374   26 -0.248   24 -0.124   26 0.4660  1.020 -0.187 -0.060  0.000
WASHINGTON     29 53 237 306 -0.039 40.217   27  0.323   27 -0.278   27 -0.264   27 0.4624  1.197 -0.110 -0.418  0.000
CHICAGO        26 56 211 285 -0.008 41.365   28  0.241   28 -0.325   28 -0.265   28 0.4556  1.040 -0.305 -0.225  0.000
ST. LOUIS      21 61 197 292 -0.001 41.693   29  0.013   29 -0.428   30 -0.351   29 0.4417  0.998 -0.440 -0.261  0.000
PITTSBURGH     22 60 244 315 -0.043 40.105   30  0.000   30 -0.435   29 -0.300   30 0.4408  1.295 -0.017 -0.583  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS         54 33 280 236  0.031 44.318    4  1.269    3  0.228    3  0.186    3 0.5317  0.992  0.089  0.283  0.000
SAN JOSE       50 43 295 272  0.042 47.946    9  0.981    9  0.093    9  0.104    9 0.5140  1.075  0.105  0.102  0.000
ANAHEIM        52 46 300 265  0.048 50.682   10  0.972   10  0.086    5  0.153   10 0.5124  0.975  0.037  0.269  0.000
LOS ANGELES    42 40 249 270  0.042 42.531   13  0.896   13  0.047   18 -0.047   13 0.5068  1.177  0.081 -0.176  0.000
PHOENIX        38 44 246 271  0.043 42.601   20  0.780   20 -0.035   21 -0.064   20 0.4957  1.173  0.059 -0.187  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CALGARY        49 40 234 217  0.044 45.920    7  1.040    7  0.115    6  0.133    7 0.5146  0.712 -0.265  0.531  0.000
EDMONTON       56 50 327 312  0.080 56.307    8  1.005    8  0.106   10  0.094    8 0.5141  1.048  0.064  0.125  0.000
COLORADO       47 44 305 288  0.054 47.369   12  0.931   12  0.064    8  0.108   12 0.5083  1.260  0.344 -0.128  0.000
VANCOUVER      42 40 256 255  0.042 42.420   14  0.895   14  0.045   16  0.011   14 0.5053  1.165  0.123 -0.102  0.000
MINNESOTA      38 44 231 215  0.037 42.151   22  0.772   22 -0.041   11  0.076   22 0.4942  0.869 -0.159  0.311  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        60 28 322 228 -0.032 42.313    1  1.365    1  0.293    2  0.320    1 0.5400  1.135  0.395  0.245  0.000
NASHVILLE      50 37 269 244 -0.019 42.730    6  1.043    6  0.117   12  0.068    6 0.5151  1.013 -0.004  0.140  0.000
COLUMBUS       35 47 223 279 -0.009 41.276   24  0.575   24 -0.132   26 -0.242   24 0.4806  1.088 -0.224 -0.260  0.000
CHICAGO        26 56 211 285 -0.008 41.365   28  0.241   28 -0.325   28 -0.265   28 0.4556  1.040 -0.305 -0.225  0.000
ST. LOUIS      21 61 197 292 -0.001 41.693   29  0.013   29 -0.428   30 -0.351   29 0.4417  0.998 -0.440 -0.261  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BUFFALO        63 37 341 288  0.023 50.684    2  1.304    2  0.252    4  0.157    2 0.5334  1.097  0.186  0.129  0.000
OTTAWA         57 35 350 240 -0.020 44.797    5  1.223    5  0.196    1  0.355    5 0.5282  1.152  0.452  0.258  0.000
MONTREAL       44 44 260 262  0.009 44.374   16  0.836   16  0.003   15  0.013   16 0.5013  0.981 -0.096  0.122  0.000
TORONTO        41 41 257 270  0.003 41.239   17  0.823   17 -0.002   17 -0.045   17 0.4993  1.165  0.068 -0.158  0.000
BOSTON         29 53 230 266  0.009 41.562   26  0.374   26 -0.248   24 -0.124   26 0.4660  1.020 -0.187 -0.060  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     51 40 269 250 -0.048 43.763   11  0.940   11  0.069   14  0.024   11 0.5097  0.902 -0.174  0.222  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   47 41 280 286 -0.044 42.598   15  0.864   15  0.027   20 -0.056   15 0.5039  1.157  0.046 -0.159  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   44 42 261 232 -0.064 40.764   19  0.793   19 -0.028   13  0.045   19 0.4969  0.908 -0.146  0.237  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 46 230 278 -0.047 39.860   25  0.558   25 -0.139   25 -0.237   25 0.4797  1.082 -0.226 -0.248  0.000
PITTSBURGH     22 60 244 315 -0.043 40.105   30  0.000   30 -0.435   29 -0.300   30 0.4408  1.295 -0.017 -0.583  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CAROLINA       68 39 367 320 -0.031 52.021    3  1.272    4  0.227    7  0.125    4 0.5311  1.166  0.238  0.011  0.000
TAMPA BAY      44 43 265 283 -0.025 42.849   18  0.812   18 -0.009   22 -0.070   18 0.4989  1.105 -0.031 -0.108  0.000
ATLANTA        41 41 281 275 -0.054 39.342   21  0.776   21 -0.038   19 -0.048   21 0.4957  1.283  0.219 -0.314  0.000
FLORIDA        37 45 240 257 -0.049 39.649   23  0.609   23 -0.120   23 -0.122   23 0.4846  0.998 -0.212 -0.033  0.000
WASHINGTON     29 53 237 306 -0.039 40.217   27  0.323   27 -0.278   27 -0.264   27 0.4624  1.197 -0.110 -0.418  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 232 218 0.516    1  0.111
NORTHEAST DIVISION 234 210 0.527    2  0.091
PACIFIC DIVISION   236 206 0.534    3  0.087
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 219 221 0.498    4 -0.098
CENTRAL DIVISION   192 229 0.456    5 -0.125
ATLANTIC DIVISION  200 229 0.466    6 -0.134

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.130 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.017 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:17:08 2007
games through: Mon Jun 19 2006

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