Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.003 52.235    1  1.136    1  0.231    3  0.216    1 0.5309  0.914  0.235  0.197  0.000
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.027 45.595    2  1.096    2  0.205    2  0.219    2 0.5304  0.966  0.296  0.142  0.000
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.045 48.818    3  1.058    3  0.183    4  0.197    3 0.5243  0.975  0.284  0.109  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.026 50.648    4  1.007    5  0.157    5  0.192    5 0.5226  0.892  0.186  0.198  0.000
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.008 48.931    5  1.006    4  0.158    6  0.164    4 0.5232  0.791  0.050  0.279  0.000
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.062 56.386    6  0.987    6  0.150    9  0.153    6 0.5209  0.680 -0.076  0.381  0.000
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.023 44.835    7  0.944    7  0.133    1  0.273    7 0.5197  0.977  0.363  0.183  0.000
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.012 44.806    8  0.909    8  0.133   12  0.056    8 0.5197  0.765 -0.086  0.198  0.000
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.016 44.816    9  0.899    9  0.128    7  0.156    9 0.5192  0.967  0.234  0.078  0.000
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.007 42.955   10  0.866   11  0.116    8  0.155   11 0.5164  0.662 -0.091  0.400  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.013 46.787   11  0.865   10  0.117   10  0.125   10 0.5174  0.956  0.191  0.059  0.000
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.004 43.311   12  0.778   12  0.088   15  0.028   12 0.5132  0.713 -0.167  0.223  0.000
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.028 47.438   13  0.703   13  0.050   13  0.050   13 0.5085  0.793 -0.063  0.162  0.000
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.007 43.405   14  0.672   14  0.031   20 -0.084   14 0.5048  0.738 -0.253  0.085  0.000
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.008 41.188   15  0.671   15  0.025   14  0.038   15 0.5036  0.986  0.138 -0.063  0.000
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.012 43.664   16  0.650   16  0.013   19 -0.048   16 0.5033  0.933 -0.008 -0.088  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.002 43.286   17  0.649   17  0.012   11  0.062   17 0.5025  1.005  0.185 -0.061  0.000
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.005 41.183   18  0.618   18 -0.008   16 -0.013   18 0.4984  1.023  0.131 -0.157  0.000
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.007 40.795   19  0.603   19 -0.021   17 -0.015   19 0.4964  0.703 -0.219  0.190  0.000
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.025 40.456   20  0.445   20 -0.103   23 -0.155   20 0.4854  1.080  0.056 -0.367  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.019 40.441   21  0.425   21 -0.113   18 -0.042   21 0.4836  0.952  0.019 -0.103  0.000
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.023 40.496   22  0.383   22 -0.128   22 -0.140   22 0.4816  0.847 -0.195 -0.085  0.000
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.023 40.550   23  0.362   23 -0.134   25 -0.164   23 0.4799  0.691 -0.381  0.053  0.000
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.014 40.724   24  0.310   24 -0.158   21 -0.132   24 0.4780  0.812 -0.225 -0.040  0.000
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.009 40.991   25  0.202   25 -0.208   26 -0.217   25 0.4696  0.992 -0.110 -0.325  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.008 41.034   26  0.180   26 -0.226   24 -0.164   26 0.4683  1.065  0.029 -0.358  0.000
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.016 40.855   27  0.130   27 -0.261   27 -0.262   27 0.4637  0.891 -0.268 -0.255  0.000
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.017 40.929   28  0.109   28 -0.276   28 -0.279   28 0.4599  1.007 -0.154 -0.404  0.000
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.003 41.582   29  0.081   29 -0.289   30 -0.426   29 0.4576  1.198 -0.068 -0.783  0.000
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.023 40.703   30  0.000   30 -0.336   29 -0.281   30 0.4530  1.043 -0.114 -0.448  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
SAN JOSE       53 34 12 257 215 -0.008 48.931    5  1.006    4  0.158    6  0.164    4 0.5232  0.791  0.050  0.279  0.000
DALLAS         42 32 13 204 194 -0.004 43.311   12  0.778   12  0.088   15  0.028   12 0.5132  0.713 -0.167  0.223  0.000
LOS ANGELES    28 38 16 205 217 -0.019 40.441   21  0.425   21 -0.113   18 -0.042   21 0.4836  0.952  0.019 -0.103  0.000
ANAHEIM        29 43 10 184 213 -0.014 40.724   24  0.310   24 -0.158   21 -0.132   24 0.4780  0.812 -0.225 -0.040  0.000
PHOENIX        22 42 18 188 245 -0.009 40.991   25  0.202   25 -0.208   26 -0.217   25 0.4696  0.992 -0.110 -0.325  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CALGARY        57 44  7 260 229  0.062 56.386    6  0.987    6  0.150    9  0.153    6 0.5209  0.680 -0.076  0.381  0.000
VANCOUVER      46 33 10 251 213  0.016 44.816    9  0.899    9  0.128    7  0.156    9 0.5192  0.967  0.234  0.078  0.000
COLORADO       46 34 13 262 222  0.013 46.787   11  0.865   10  0.117   10  0.125   10 0.5174  0.956  0.191  0.059  0.000
EDMONTON       36 34 12 221 208  0.008 41.188   15  0.671   15  0.025   14  0.038   15 0.5036  0.986  0.138 -0.063  0.000
MINNESOTA      30 32 20 188 183 -0.007 40.795   19  0.603   19 -0.021   17 -0.015   19 0.4964  0.703 -0.219  0.190  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        54 29 11 279 209 -0.027 45.595    2  1.096    2  0.205    2  0.219    2 0.5304  0.966  0.296  0.142  0.000
ST LOUIS       40 36 11 200 210 -0.007 43.405   14  0.672   14  0.031   20 -0.084   14 0.5048  0.738 -0.253  0.085  0.000
NASHVILLE      40 37 11 225 229 -0.012 43.664   16  0.650   16  0.013   19 -0.048   16 0.5033  0.933 -0.008 -0.088  0.000
COLUMBUS       25 49  8 177 238 -0.016 40.855   27  0.130   27 -0.261   27 -0.262   27 0.4637  0.891 -0.268 -0.255  0.000
CHICAGO        20 51 11 188 259 -0.023 40.703   30  0.000   30 -0.336   29 -0.281   30 0.4530  1.043 -0.114 -0.448  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TORONTO        51 34 10 269 232  0.045 48.818    3  1.058    3  0.183    4  0.197    3 0.5243  0.975  0.284  0.109  0.000
OTTAWA         46 33 10 273 203  0.023 44.835    7  0.944    7  0.133    1  0.273    7 0.5197  0.977  0.363  0.183  0.000
BOSTON         44 30 15 223 207  0.012 44.806    8  0.909    8  0.133   12  0.056    8 0.5197  0.765 -0.086  0.198  0.000
MONTREAL       45 41  7 232 220  0.028 47.438   13  0.703   13  0.050   13  0.050   13 0.5085  0.793 -0.063  0.162  0.000
BUFFALO        37 38  7 220 221  0.005 41.183   18  0.618   18 -0.008   16 -0.013   18 0.4984  1.023  0.131 -0.157  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PHILADELPHIA   51 34 15 279 229  0.026 50.648    4  1.007    5  0.157    5  0.192    5 0.5226  0.892  0.186  0.198  0.000
NEW JERSEY     44 31 12 222 178 -0.007 42.955   10  0.866   11  0.116    8  0.155   11 0.5164  0.662 -0.091  0.400  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 39 37 11 242 222 -0.002 43.286   17  0.649   17  0.012   11  0.062   17 0.5025  1.005  0.185 -0.061  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   27 48  7 206 250 -0.008 41.034   26  0.180   26 -0.226   24 -0.164   26 0.4683  1.065  0.029 -0.358  0.000
PITTSBURGH     23 51  8 190 303 -0.003 41.582   29  0.081   29 -0.289   30 -0.426   29 0.4576  1.198 -0.068 -0.783  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      62 35  8 305 235  0.003 52.235    1  1.136    1  0.231    3  0.216    1 0.5309  0.914  0.235  0.197  0.000
ATLANTA        33 41  8 214 243 -0.025 40.456   20  0.445   20 -0.103   23 -0.155   20 0.4854  1.080  0.056 -0.367  0.000
FLORIDA        28 39 15 188 221 -0.023 40.496   22  0.383   22 -0.128   22 -0.140   22 0.4816  0.847 -0.195 -0.085  0.000
CAROLINA       28 40 14 172 209 -0.023 40.550   23  0.362   23 -0.134   25 -0.164   23 0.4799  0.691 -0.381  0.053  0.000
WASHINGTON     23 49 10 186 253 -0.017 40.929   28  0.109   28 -0.276   28 -0.279   28 0.4599  1.007 -0.154 -0.404  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHEAST DIVISION 223 176  49 0.552    1  0.146
NORTHWEST DIVISION 215 177  62 0.542    2  0.118
ATLANTIC DIVISION  184 201  53 0.481    3 -0.043
PACIFIC DIVISION   174 189  69 0.483    4 -0.050
CENTRAL DIVISION   179 202  52 0.473    5 -0.116
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 174 204  55 0.465    6 -0.136

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.109 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.013 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:14:32 2007
games through: Mon Jun  7 2004

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