Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OTTAWA         63 29  8 306 216 -0.009 49.978    1  1.132    1  0.293    2  0.277    1 0.5408  0.942  0.290  0.264  0.000
DALLAS         52 27 15 279 194  0.016 47.931    2  1.064    2  0.238    1  0.332    2 0.5334  0.838  0.230  0.433  0.000
NEW JERSEY     62 34 10 279 207 -0.012 52.917    3  1.043    3  0.220    3  0.257    3 0.5324  0.623 -0.062  0.577  0.000
DETROIT        48 28 10 275 213  0.023 44.269    4  1.019    4  0.210    5  0.216    4 0.5299  1.088  0.401  0.031  0.000
VANCOUVER      52 31 13 298 255  0.035 49.994    5  1.014    5  0.205    8  0.144    5 0.5292  1.146  0.400 -0.112  0.000
ANAHEIM        55 39  9 248 233  0.075 55.274    6  0.978    6  0.184    9  0.114    6 0.5249  0.696 -0.135  0.362  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   51 31 13 245 199 -0.019 47.342    7  0.926    7  0.161    7  0.150    7 0.5247  0.665 -0.129  0.430  0.000
COLORADO       45 31 13 268 210  0.024 45.768    8  0.885    8  0.143    4  0.251    8 0.5214  0.963  0.289  0.214  0.000
MINNESOTA      50 40 10 241 221  0.062 53.232    9  0.802    9  0.129   10  0.081    9 0.5177  0.666 -0.197  0.359  0.000
ST LOUIS       44 34 11 274 239  0.028 46.019   10  0.772   10  0.114    6  0.164   10 0.5161  1.101  0.364 -0.036  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TORONTO        47 35  7 252 232 -0.026 44.283   11  0.703   11  0.086   11  0.038   11 0.5148  1.008  0.127 -0.051  0.000
EDMONTON       38 39 11 242 250  0.052 46.604   12  0.589   12  0.022   12  0.019   13 0.5028  1.046  0.152 -0.115  0.000
TAMPA BAY      41 36 16 241 239 -0.040 45.843   13  0.568   13  0.006   13  0.001   12 0.5030  0.914 -0.017  0.019  0.000
WASHINGTON     41 39  8 239 234 -0.054 42.902   14  0.528   14 -0.023   14 -0.025   14 0.4979  0.971  0.022 -0.071  0.000
BOSTON         37 39 11 253 250 -0.025 43.473   15  0.507   15 -0.038   16 -0.043   15 0.4950  1.155  0.224 -0.311  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 40 11 231 244 -0.022 43.716   16  0.478   16 -0.053   21 -0.103   16 0.4932  1.024  0.005 -0.210  0.000
PHOENIX        31 40 11 204 230  0.017 42.458   17  0.430   17 -0.077   20 -0.101   18 0.4873  0.953 -0.075 -0.126  0.000
CHICAGO        30 39 13 207 226  0.017 42.347   18  0.411   20 -0.089   15 -0.038   17 0.4874  0.941 -0.026 -0.050  0.000
CALGARY        29 40 13 186 228  0.036 43.109   19  0.409   18 -0.086   24 -0.143   20 0.4864  0.849 -0.233 -0.053  0.000
LOS ANGELES    33 43  6 203 221  0.020 42.521   20  0.408   19 -0.088   17 -0.066   19 0.4864  0.888 -0.113 -0.019  0.000
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
N.Y. RANGERS   32 40 10 210 231 -0.048 40.356   21  0.357   21 -0.110   22 -0.108   21 0.4841  0.995 -0.034 -0.182  0.000
NASHVILLE      27 42 13 183 206  0.028 42.830   22  0.301   22 -0.132   19 -0.096   22 0.4799  0.697 -0.343  0.152  0.000
COLUMBUS       29 45  8 213 263  0.020 42.665   23  0.243   23 -0.153   26 -0.171   23 0.4773  1.144  0.082 -0.424  0.000
SAN JOSE       28 45  9 214 239  0.023 42.615   24  0.229   24 -0.164   18 -0.070   24 0.4764  1.037  0.053 -0.194  0.000
ATLANTA        31 44  7 226 284 -0.051 40.540   25  0.218   25 -0.167   28 -0.280   25 0.4763  1.278  0.147 -0.706  0.000
MONTREAL       30 44  8 206 234 -0.041 40.596   26  0.210   26 -0.177   23 -0.129   26 0.4762  0.977 -0.075 -0.182  0.000
BUFFALO        27 45 10 190 219 -0.039 40.699   27  0.148   27 -0.212   25 -0.151   27 0.4705  0.815 -0.278 -0.025  0.000
FLORIDA        24 45 13 176 237 -0.039 40.857   28  0.110   28 -0.233   27 -0.246   28 0.4662  0.821 -0.366 -0.126  0.000
PITTSBURGH     27 49  6 189 255 -0.042 40.862   29  0.075   29 -0.257   29 -0.299   29 0.4639  0.999 -0.220 -0.377  0.000
CAROLINA       22 49 11 171 240 -0.048 40.658   30  0.000   30 -0.308   30 -0.318   30 0.4564  0.832 -0.426 -0.210  0.000

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DALLAS         52 27 15 279 194  0.016 47.931    2  1.064    2  0.238    1  0.332    2 0.5334  0.838  0.230  0.433  0.000
ANAHEIM        55 39  9 248 233  0.075 55.274    6  0.978    6  0.184    9  0.114    6 0.5249  0.696 -0.135  0.362  0.000
PHOENIX        31 40 11 204 230  0.017 42.458   17  0.430   17 -0.077   20 -0.101   18 0.4873  0.953 -0.075 -0.126  0.000
LOS ANGELES    33 43  6 203 221  0.020 42.521   20  0.408   19 -0.088   17 -0.066   19 0.4864  0.888 -0.113 -0.019  0.000
SAN JOSE       28 45  9 214 239  0.023 42.615   24  0.229   24 -0.164   18 -0.070   24 0.4764  1.037  0.053 -0.194  0.000

NORTHWEST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
VANCOUVER      52 31 13 298 255  0.035 49.994    5  1.014    5  0.205    8  0.144    5 0.5292  1.146  0.400 -0.112  0.000
COLORADO       45 31 13 268 210  0.024 45.768    8  0.885    8  0.143    4  0.251    8 0.5214  0.963  0.289  0.214  0.000
MINNESOTA      50 40 10 241 221  0.062 53.232    9  0.802    9  0.129   10  0.081    9 0.5177  0.666 -0.197  0.359  0.000
EDMONTON       38 39 11 242 250  0.052 46.604   12  0.589   12  0.022   12  0.019   13 0.5028  1.046  0.152 -0.115  0.000
CALGARY        29 40 13 186 228  0.036 43.109   19  0.409   18 -0.086   24 -0.143   20 0.4864  0.849 -0.233 -0.053  0.000

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DETROIT        48 28 10 275 213  0.023 44.269    4  1.019    4  0.210    5  0.216    4 0.5299  1.088  0.401  0.031  0.000
ST LOUIS       44 34 11 274 239  0.028 46.019   10  0.772   10  0.114    6  0.164   10 0.5161  1.101  0.364 -0.036  0.000
CHICAGO        30 39 13 207 226  0.017 42.347   18  0.411   20 -0.089   15 -0.038   17 0.4874  0.941 -0.026 -0.050  0.000
NASHVILLE      27 42 13 183 206  0.028 42.830   22  0.301   22 -0.132   19 -0.096   22 0.4799  0.697 -0.343  0.152  0.000
COLUMBUS       29 45  8 213 263  0.020 42.665   23  0.243   23 -0.153   26 -0.171   23 0.4773  1.144  0.082 -0.424  0.000

NORTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
OTTAWA         63 29  8 306 216 -0.009 49.978    1  1.132    1  0.293    2  0.277    1 0.5408  0.942  0.290  0.264  0.000
TORONTO        47 35  7 252 232 -0.026 44.283   11  0.703   11  0.086   11  0.038   11 0.5148  1.008  0.127 -0.051  0.000
BOSTON         37 39 11 253 250 -0.025 43.473   15  0.507   15 -0.038   16 -0.043   15 0.4950  1.155  0.224 -0.311  0.000
MONTREAL       30 44  8 206 234 -0.041 40.596   26  0.210   26 -0.177   23 -0.129   26 0.4762  0.977 -0.075 -0.182  0.000
BUFFALO        27 45 10 190 219 -0.039 40.699   27  0.148   27 -0.212   25 -0.151   27 0.4705  0.815 -0.278 -0.025  0.000

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NEW JERSEY     62 34 10 279 207 -0.012 52.917    3  1.043    3  0.220    3  0.257    3 0.5324  0.623 -0.062  0.577  0.000
PHILADELPHIA   51 31 13 245 199 -0.019 47.342    7  0.926    7  0.161    7  0.150    7 0.5247  0.665 -0.129  0.430  0.000
N.Y. ISLANDERS 36 40 11 231 244 -0.022 43.716   16  0.478   16 -0.053   21 -0.103   16 0.4932  1.024  0.005 -0.210  0.000
N.Y. RANGERS   32 40 10 210 231 -0.048 40.356   21  0.357   21 -0.110   22 -0.108   21 0.4841  0.995 -0.034 -0.182  0.000
PITTSBURGH     27 49  6 189 255 -0.042 40.862   29  0.075   29 -0.257   29 -0.299   29 0.4639  0.999 -0.220 -0.377  0.000

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
                                                STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM            W  L  T  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TAMPA BAY      41 36 16 241 239 -0.040 45.843   13  0.568   13  0.006   13  0.001   12 0.5030  0.914 -0.017  0.019  0.000
WASHINGTON     41 39  8 239 234 -0.054 42.902   14  0.528   14 -0.023   14 -0.025   14 0.4979  0.971  0.022 -0.071  0.000
ATLANTA        31 44  7 226 284 -0.051 40.540   25  0.218   25 -0.167   28 -0.280   25 0.4763  1.278  0.147 -0.706  0.000
FLORIDA        24 45 13 176 237 -0.039 40.857   28  0.110   28 -0.233   27 -0.246   28 0.4662  0.821 -0.366 -0.126  0.000
CAROLINA       22 49 11 171 240 -0.048 40.658   30  0.000   30 -0.308   30 -0.318   30 0.4564  0.832 -0.426 -0.210  0.000

DIVISION             W   L   T   PCT  RNK RATING
NORTHWEST DIVISION 214 181  60 0.536    1  0.092
PACIFIC DIVISION   199 194  50 0.506    2  0.053
CENTRAL DIVISION   178 188  55 0.488    3  0.022
NORTHEAST DIVISION 204 192  44 0.514    4 -0.002
ATLANTIC DIVISION  208 194  50 0.515    5 -0.027
SOUTHEAST DIVISION 159 213  55 0.437    6 -0.222

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.113 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Dec 31 14:13:15 2007
games through: Mon Jun  9 2003

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